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Pittsburgh, PA Thread


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-- Discussion containing changed information from previous version are highlighted. --

000

FXUS61 KPBZ 150130

AFDPBZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

830 PM EST SUN NOV 14 2010

.SYNOPSIS...

-- Changed Discussion --HIGH PRESSURE COMING FROM TENNESSEE WILL PROVIDE CLEARING WITH

PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT AND SUNSHINE DAYTIME MONDAY. LOW PRESSURE

COMING NORTHEAST FROM THE TEXAS COAST WILL BRING THE UPPER OHIO

VALLEY RAIN TUESDAY INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE COMING EAST

FROM THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL BRING SHOWERS THURSDAY...OF RAIN AND

POSSIBLY LIGHT SNOW...FOLLOWED BY CHILLY TEMPERATURES FRIDAY.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED SHOWER ENDING TIMES BASED ON RECENT RADAR DATA

AND RUC AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT. ADDED PATCHY FOG OVERNIGHT MAINLY EAST

OF THE OHIO LINE...AS EVAPORATION OF RECENT RAIN MAY TEMPORARILY

SATURATE THE SURFACE LAYER.

BLEND OF RECENT SREF MODEL OUTPUT AND NAM MODEL PROFILES SHOW

LIMITED IF ANY CUMULUS DEVELOPMENT DAYTIME MONDAY...SO CONTINUED

FORECAST OF MOSTLY SUNNY ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

ADJUSTED LOW TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE DEGREES OVERNIGHT BASED ON RECENT

SURFACE DATA AND NAM MODEL OUTPUT. FORECASTED HIGHS MONDAY USING

BLEND OF CLOSELY CONCURRING NAM AND GFS MOS VALUES.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

-- Changed Discussion --BLEND OF RECENT SREF AND ECMWF MODEL OUTPUT CONTINUES TO SHOW LOW

PRESSURE MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE TEXAS COAST TO NEW ENGLAND

WILL PROVIDE WIDESPREAD RAIN ACROSS THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY RAIN

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. THE RAIN SHOULD BE ENDING WEDNESDAY

MORNING.

BASED RAINFALL AMOUNTS ON RECENT HPC QPF GUIDANCE THAT

SUGGESTED 24-HOUR AMOUNTS ENDING 7AM WEDNESDAY TO BE ON THE ORDER

OF 0.60 TO 1.00 INCHES.

JUDGING FROM RECENT GFS AND NAM MOS VALUES...FORECASTED TEMPERATURES

TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE FOR HIGHS BUT 5-8 DEGREES WARMER THAN

NORMAL FOR LOWS DUE TO EFFECTS OF CLOUDY CONDITIONS THIS PERIOD.-- End Changed Discussion --

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...

DID NOT STRAY TOO FAR FROM HPC PROGS AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH

OF REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO NEW ENGLAND THURSDAY WITH COLD

ADVECTION BEHIND SYSTEM. TIMING OF RAIN SHOWERS TO SNOW SHOWERS

WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WILL DEPEND ON EXACT TRACK AND SPEED

OF SYSTEM SO PRECIP TYPE MAY CHANGE QUITE A BIT WITH FUTURE

FORECASTS. BY THURSDAY NIGHT BULK OF MOISTURE WILL BE EAST OF

REGION WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE MOVING EAST. WELL BELOW NORMAL

TEMPERATURES WILL REBOUND FOR THE WEEKEND AS SURFACE HIGH MOVES TO

THE EAST COAST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM IN THE PLAINS STATES.

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The board wasn't working this morning for me to ask, but what happened last night? I don't recall any prior mention of ice overnight, but when I got up this morning, there was an SWS, issued at 4:03 a.m. for icy patches from leftover rainwater on surfaces. My own driveway was icy. The thing was, PIT's temp as of the 5:53 a.m. obs was 31, and AGC's at the same time showed 39. That seemed like a pretty drastic spread for such a relatively short distance...

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Keep an eye on the occluded front which will be approaching between 8-9 pm...classic low topped convection....may bring an isolated rumble/lightning strike, plus brief heavy rain and wind gusts of 40-45 mph possible.

Good call.

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA

633 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

OHZ039>041-049-050-059-069-PAZ020-021-029-031-032-WVZ001>004-012-

021>023-170030-

ALLEGHENY PA-BEAVER PA-BELMONT OH-BROOKE WV-CARROLL OH-COLUMBIANA

OH-FAYETTE PA-GREENE PA-HANCOCK WV-HARRISON OH-JEFFERSON OH-MARION

WV-MARSHALL WV-MONONGALIA WV-MONROE OH-OHIO WV-PRESTON WV-TUSCARAWAS

OH-WASHINGTON PA-WETZEL WV-

633 PM EST TUE NOV 16 2010

...SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS...

A LINE OF SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS TO

MOVE THROUGH THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

MONROE...COLUMBIANA...BELMONT...HARRISON...JEFFERSON...

TUSCARAWAS...CARROLL...FAYETTE...WASHINGTON...ALLEGHENY...BEAVER...

GREENE...MARION...WETZEL...PRESTON...MONONGALIA...MARSHALL...OHIO...

BROOKE AND HANCOCK...

AT 627 PM EST NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR IN PITTSBURGH

INDICATED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS ALONG

A LINE EXTENDING FROM BOLIVAR TO 2 MILES SOUTHWEST OF

SMITHFIELD...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. WIND GUSTS CAN GO OVER 30

MPH. THERE CAN ALSO BE A SHORT PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN AND LOW

VISIBILITY.

SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL BE IMPACTED BY THESE STORMS INCLUDE...

WOODLANDS... WILEYVILLE... PROCTOR...

PINE GROVE... JACKSONBURG... FAIRVIEW...

UHRICHSVILLE... TAPPAN... PIEDMONT...

MORRISTOWN... FLUSHING... DENNISON...

KEEP AN EYE TO THE SKY AND MOVE TO A SAFE PLACE IF THUNDERSTORMS

APPROACH.

PLEASE REPORT STRONG WINDS OR WIND DAMAGE TO THE NATIONAL WEATHER

SERVICE BY CALLING TOLL FREE...1-877-633-6772.

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It looks like the wind portion didn't work out this evening....but we're not going to have to wait too long for another opportunity ...winds should really start to crank towards daybreak with the tightening gradient...should get my 40 mph gust or close to it sometime between daybreak and noon tomorrow. :P

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It looks like the wind portion didn't work out this evening....but we're not going to have to wait too long for another opportunity ...winds should really start to crank towards daybreak with the tightening gradient...should get my 40 mph gust or close to it sometime between daybreak and noon tomorrow. :P

Hopefully the wind can take the rest of the leaves off of my trees and blow them into someone elses yard.:thumbsup:

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Special Weather Statement

110 AM EST WED NOV 17 2010

...STRONG GUSTY WINDS...

GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. WINDS WILL BE

PARTICULARLY STRONG THROUGH 3 AM AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES THROUGH.

GENERAL GUSTS OF 30 TO 40 MPH ARE EXPECTED...HOWEVER ISOLATED GUSTS

IN EXCESS OF 50 MPH ARE POSSIBLE.

It's getting pretty windy out there now. Latest obs at both PIT and AGC show gusts of 30...

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Boy it sure looks and feels like mid to late November out there today....was a cold 44 for a high.

Keeping an eye on late next week....things might be a little festive or dare I say a bit white perhaps

late Thanksgiving night into early Saturday...not an exact consensus on the timing just yet but the

general pattern looks to be a good threat sometime in that period.

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Boy it sure looks and feels like mid to late November out there today....was a cold 44 for a high.

Keeping an eye on late next week....things might be a little festive or dare I say a bit white perhaps

late Thanksgiving night into early Saturday...not an exact consensus on the timing just yet but the

general pattern looks to be a good threat sometime in that period.

Looks more like a 1800 feet + white event.

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