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Chasing DON


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Unofficial, I'd cross the border into Matamoros tomorrow and drive South 20-40 miles with the doors locked.

50 to 60 knots, just South of Matamoros.

IR watching, nothing too scientific.

As much as I like your sincere enthusiasm ed. IR isn't the product to be watching tonight. Microwave and HH fixes are.

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Unofficial, I'd cross the border into Matamoros tomorrow and drive South 20-40 miles with the doors locked.

50 to 60 knots, just South of Matamoros.

IR watching, nothing too scientific.

You could be close... I'm thinking Port Mansfield-Brownsville.

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P.S. And I don't mean that as a diss on MX. I've been to MX many times-- I like the country and I'm a big fan of it, and I always feel it gets a bum rap. It's much safer and more hospitable than most Americans realize. But the area just S of BRO is not the best part. It would be like chasing a 'cane in the worst neighborhoods of Detroit-- not to mention that you can't just take a rental car across the border. (That in itself is a huge pain the azz.)

I would need a solid 'cane-- like 85 kt and really bombing out-- to make me want to do that particular border crossing.

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Cory & Josh are in a >2% 'SEE TEXT' area for tornado excitement.

...SRN/CNTRL TX CSTL PLN TNGT/EARLY SAT...

T.S. DON IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL ALONG THE SRN TX CST LATE TNGT

PER NHC. OUTER RAIN BANDS WITH SYSTEM WILL POSE A RISK FOR STRONG

WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A BRIEF TORNADO OR TWO. OVERALL THREAT DOES

NOT APPEAR TO WARRANT MORE THAN 5% SVR PROBABILITIES ATTM.

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It looks a tad better this morning, with the deep convection nearer/over the center, as per IR.

Since we're here, Cory and I are thinking to head down to Port Mansfield-ish later today, with the main intention of the trip being an in-the-field practice run for the BASTARD/Kestrel. I'm thinking we'll make a sort of game of it, with the object being to intercept the pressure center as it crosses into Kenedy Co.-- that's if we feel motivated enough. :D

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It looks a tad better this morning, with the deep convection nearer/over the center, as per IR.

Since we're here, Cory and I are thinking to head down to Port Mansfield-ish later today, with the main intention of the trip being an in-the-field practice run for the BASTARD/Kestrel. I'm thinking we'll make a sort of game of it, with the object being to intercept the pressure center as it crosses into Kenedy Co.-- that's if we feel motivated enough. :D

I think the really interesting feature you might want to sample is the convective band just east of the center.

6sfcps.png

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The cyclone's looking a tad better on radar. Cory are heading down to Port Mansfield now. As I mentioned earlier, our goal is to hit the pressure center and get some good obs.

More soon.

Don is already at Port Mansfield latitude... it will be closer to Baffin Bay.... probably in between, but closer to BB, IMO

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Just looked more closely at radar and advisory position. Baffin Bay definitely seems a better bet at this point. (I see Jorge suggested it above.) There are some small communities around it. We'll get down there and look around. Hitting the road now.

Back in the day when I went to A&I (Kingsville) there was plenty of access for Baffin Bay.

Take FM 628 which is s of Kingsville on 77 and head towards Loyola Beach. You should be able to cruise around some n or s if you want.

Otherwise you have to cross over an outlet as you head towards Sarita for access to the southern part of the bay and not sure about that area.

map3.gif

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Scott, dude! Thanks for the amazing map! This is really helpful if we decide to go into Baffin Bay.

We're in Kingsville eating a sandwich, trying to decide next steps. The advisory position and forecast suggest landfall near or even N of Baffin Bay. But there's that odd feature-- to say the least!-- near BRO. I have to say, if that became the new center, that would be the center relocation of the century. lolz

I've never chased a TS before, and I didn't realize how complicated it is. Instead of a defined center, you have scrambled eggs! :lmao:

We'll make a decision soon. Perhaps a few more radar frames will enlighten us.

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Scott, dude! Thanks for the amazing map! This is really helpful if we decide to go into Baffin Bay.

We're in Kingsville eating a sandwich, trying to decide next steps. The advisory position and forecast suggest landfall near or even N of Baffin Bay. But there's that odd feature-- to say the least!-- near BRO. I have to say, if that became the new center, at would be the center relocation of the century. lolz

I've never chased a TS before, and I didn't realize how complicated it is. Instead of a defined center, you have scrambled eggs! :lmao:

We'll make a decision soon. Perhaps a few more radar frames will enlighten us.

lol. Hear ya about chasing a TS. No recon combined with a crappy ass signature makes tracking it a royal pain. Grr...

A bit larger map for reference if y'all stay up that way. Back at the house. Left you a vm so if you need anything give me a shout.

map1.gif

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