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Chasing DON


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bendy tallgrass

Be sweet if Josh had a camera handy and got to see a funnel cloud...

LASTLY...TROPICAL STORM DON IS FORECAST TO TRACK ACROSS THE

SOUTHEAST TX COAST DURING FRIDAY NIGHT PER LATEST NHC GUIDANCE.

ABUNDANT TROPICAL MOISTURE AND DIURNAL HEATING WILL PROMOTE TSTM

DEVELOPMENT ACROSS MUCH OF THE NWRN GULF COAST NWD ACROSS THE LOWER

MS VALLEY WELL REMOVED FROM THE SMALLER TROPICAL CIRCULATION

ASSOCIATED WITH DON. AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL SHEAR COULD BRING A

THREAT FOR A TORNADO OR TWO ALONG THE TX COAST FRIDAY NIGHT AS

CONVECTIVE BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL STORM DON MOVE INLAND.

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Don't be hurtzyhurtz... I'll still make maps for you when you need me too :hug:

im not.. i think anyone who has chased knows you bust a lot unless you live in tornado alley, and even then you bust a lot.

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im not.. i think anyone who has chased knows you bust a lot unless you live in tornado alley, and even then you bust a lot.

Of couse, I totally understand, busts happen. But there is no fun in acting like I understand :P

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Of couse, I totally understand, busts happen. But there is no fun in acting like I understand :P

i was just kidding around earlier anyway.. i know josh would not have planned on chasing this had he not already been really close.

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Nothing real surprising here...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/14. DON REMAINS TO THE SOUTH AND

SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED

STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO

PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY

NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS

COAST IN ABOUT 36 HR. THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WHICH SHIFTED NORTHWARD

BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z...HAS SHIFTED SOUTHWARD FOR THIS ADVISORY. THE

NEW FORECAST TRACK HAS BEEN ONLY SLIGHTLY ADJUSTED TO THE SOUTH AND

LIES ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. SOME ADJUSTMENT

TO THE FORECAST TRACK MAY BE NECESSARY IF THE TRACK GUIDANCE

STABILIZES AROUND A TRACK SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST.

THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGAIN FORECAST MODERATE SHEAR TO CONTINUE

UNTIL DON MAKES LANDFALL. THIS AND CONTINUED INTERACTION WITH DRY

AIR OVER THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO IS LIKELY TO IMPEDE

INTENSIFICATION...AND THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT

THAT DON WILL MAKE LANDFALL AS A TROPICAL STORM AND NOT AS A

HURRICANE. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST CALLS FOR A LITTLE LESS

STRENGTHENING DURING THE FIRST 12-24 HR DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF

SHEAR AND ARC CLOUDS...THEN CALLS FOR DON TO REACH A PEAK INTENSITY

OF 50 KT NEAR LANDFALL. AFTER LANDFALL...THE CYCLONE SHOULD WEAKEN

TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION BY THE 48 HR POINT AND TO A REMNANT LOW BY

THE 72 HR POINT.

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Josh knows I am bustin, back off LoungeLizard

:lol:

:thumbsdown:

C'mon. You dished it first.

steveO , sorry this will not help your drought, was pulling for you, next time?

Was hoping that Josh had perfect timing, being with Cory and all, this sucks, especially for the drought crowd. Maybe he pulls another rabbit out of hat but unlikely.

It could still help with the drought, even if the cyclone itself is total schlock. In fact, a meteorologist on San Antonio news yesterday was saying how sometimes it's better for the system to remain disorganized if you want rain over a large area-- because once it tightens up and consolidates, the rain shield gets smaller. Kind of interesting.

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it's a win-win.. and it will be good to even get minimal, genuine conditions data. i can't wait to see how he holds up and reports, i'm pretty excited for that.

and you've already won by getting to spend time AND tech nerd it up with Cory! some fellas have all the dang luck! :thumbsup:

:wub:

Thanks, Amy.

We just got to Corpus, and of course I'm a little pissed that we're probably not going to get Celia II (:lol:), but as long as it remains a coherent system with a center, the data-collection aspect of the trip should provide enough entertainment to justify the trip-- that or diversions of downtown Corpus.

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unlikely

post-22-0-65726100-1311885771.jpg

I got an angry PM from someone after jokingly suggesting they might have damaged their rental car chasing in Veracruz. OK, I'll never comment on the environment around a chase car, rented, owned, borrowed, co-chasers, ever again. Just looked like high water there. Just a camera angle. Sorry.

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I got an angry PM from someone after jokingly suggesting they might have damaged their rental car chasing in Veracruz. OK, I'll never comment on the environment around a chase car, rented, owned, borrowed, co-chasers, ever again. Just looked like high water there. Just a camera angle. Sorry.

Dude, you are starting to really bug me. I have tried very hard to defend you over the last few months. I am done. You're on your own, kid.

Please stop dragging my threads OT-- including this one.

No more discussion about "he said she said". Thanks.

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Back on topic (and I mean it, BACK ON TOPIC)...

Cory and I will chase the thing as long as it's a coherent system and we'll collect data. If it's not a 'cane, though, I'm definitely not wasting the energy to shoot and edit video-- especially given that the core is going to come ashore at night. Even in a major, night footage is just tough. For a TS? Forget about it.

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More porno vids.

I wonder if the rental company appreciated the water damage...

On second reading, it comes off more insulting than I intended. I'm really not trying to cheese anyone off. I was meant as a joke, not an insult. Sorry.

Edit to add- Last word on the matter, promise.

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The NHC's 36-hr position (1 am Saturday) is literally within the Corpus Christi city limits. In fact, the point (27.8N 97.5W) is like 2.5 mi from our hotel. Talk about convenient! We can just set up the BASTARD/Kestrel in the parking lot and relax in the lobby while those 35-kt gusts pelt the building! :D

That way you could also calibrate it against official stations, which should be plenty in CRP.

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