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Chasing DON


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:wub:

Thanks, guys.

Cory and I are thrilled at the possibility of getting to use the equipment so soon after the recent testing. It's almost like a fantasy if it come true! Even if it's a small 'cane- like some 70-kt deal-- it'll be totally awesome. I never get tired of 'em-- even the little babycanes-- and it'll be sweet to collect core data. Our obs might end up being really useful, especially if the cyclone comes ashore in the middle of nowhere-- i.e., the ranchlands between Corpus and BRO-- and the core misses any official observing stations.

OK, I'm getting ahead of myself a little.

P.S. Prima donna Scott has made it clear he ain't botherin' with this one unless it's a major, so it looks like Cory and I might be on our own. :D

No fretting over initial destination and the inevitable booking of a flight is a bit bla laugh.gif But, ya never know when and where!

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Good luck Josh! Even a strong TS is worth chasing since you're already there imo, it'll still have all the flavor of a good TC. The racing low clouds, the torrential downpours, the bursts of wind. And like you said, you may be the only one to get good obs of this if it hits in the middle of nowhere.

I'll be chasing from the air Friday morning, beating you to the punch by a little ;)

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I think the models keep shifting Southward towards BRO, and I somehow doubt hurricane force.

If Josh and Cory are my football team of tropical chasing, this is a pre-season game, test the equipment, get the rust off.

2008 Super Bowl of Bendy Palm Video

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I'm actually satisfied with the 10 pm CDT package-- especially given that it's Avila. He points out that that the organization is OK, despite the recent decrease in convection, and he hints at a hurricane approaching the coast Friday night.

This storm seems pretty lame for a serious tight core snob to chase, just sayin.....

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Noteworthy trend...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST

OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT

36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR.

WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A

SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF

CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD

BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

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Noteworthy trend...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST

OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT

36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR.

WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A

SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF

CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD

BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.

That part is good, a possibly Northerly trend, but those 10º+ dewpoint depressions, I think this will remain a lopsided storm with that little bit of shear and dry air keeping the North side mostly naked. I don't see that changing much.

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This storm seems pretty lame for a serious tight core snob to chase, just sayin.....

And yet still more dramatic than anything you guys have seen in the last 20 years. :D

Best of luck and happy chasin' to the three of you and the little BASTARD too :thumbsup:

Thanks, Amy. If the storm stays at its current blah intensity, I'm thinking it'll be a good test run for data collection. I definitely won't waste energy shooting video of a TS.

And if it really busts, I enjoy a couple of days in Corpus. :sun:

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And yet still more dramatic than anything you guys have seen in the last 20 years. :D

Thanks, Amy. If the storm stays at its current blah intensity, I'm thinking it'll be a good test run for data collection. I definitely won't waste energy shooting video of a TS.

And if it really busts, I enjoy a couple of days in Corpus. :sun:

There ya go Josh, ignore the pessimistic bunch. Have fun regardless of what happens!

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Noteworthy trend...

THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST

OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE

LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT

36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST-

NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR.

WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A

SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS

ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF

CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD

BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.

IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON

THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE

CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.[/b]

Yeah, the plus side right now is the track: a landfall S of the border is looking less and less likely. So now we just have to worry about intensity.

As I mentioned to Adam, a sh*tload can happen with a small system in 36 hr.

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Yeah, the plus side right now is the track: a landfall S of the border is looking less and less likely. So now we just have to worry about intensity.

As I mentioned to Adam, a sh*tload can happen with a small system in 36 hr.

Indeed, although things are certainly not boding too well with the bullish predictions, which is also affecting the track, since a weaker system was always more susceptible to taking a more northerly track. In fact the main reason why the storm is getting sheared right now is that the low level flow is southeasterly while the upper levels are easterly, creating northerly shear over the system as the low level flow is forcing the system to move further north. If we can get a more vertically deep system, I still wouldn't discount a more southerly track, but if Don doesn't get much stronger, a landfall farther north is more likely.

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If the cyclone remains a TS, then this will be a data-gathering missing, with the goal being to hit the core and get some good readings. Based on the current forecast track, it doesn't look like we'll need to go very far from CRP. It'll be a good practice run for real chases later in the season.

And if the thing surprises us all and becomes something interesting, that's icing on the cake. :sun:

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If the cyclone remains a TS, then this will be a data-gathering missing, with the goal being to hit the core and get some good readings. Based on the current forecast track, it doesn't look like we'll need to go very far from CRP. It'll be a good practice run for real chases later in the season.

And if the thing surprises us all and becomes something interesting, that's icing on the cake. :sun:

I'm remaining optimistic for you guys. One thing, though, if Cory gets near the water, make sure he has his floaties on, kthx. :lol::wub:

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I'm remaining optimistic for you guys. One thing, though, if Cory gets near the water, make sure he has his floaties on, kthx. :lol::wub:

:lmao:

Will do.

Cool, I will bring half the board members to share the prize.

Many-- including Adam-- were bearish.

Anyhow, let's not call this a bust and try to spread blame just yet. Perhaps a miracle will validate you. :hug:

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