kwt Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I'm sure Josh would like a re-run of this: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Celia That strengthening it did from TS down to 965mbs is pretty impressive...the fact it did it blew up twice is even more so! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeyefan1 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good luck Josh and Cory I'm looking forward to another awesome visual story of your adventures once you return Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
toad strangler Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Thanks, guys. Cory and I are thrilled at the possibility of getting to use the equipment so soon after the recent testing. It's almost like a fantasy if it come true! Even if it's a small 'cane- like some 70-kt deal-- it'll be totally awesome. I never get tired of 'em-- even the little babycanes-- and it'll be sweet to collect core data. Our obs might end up being really useful, especially if the cyclone comes ashore in the middle of nowhere-- i.e., the ranchlands between Corpus and BRO-- and the core misses any official observing stations. OK, I'm getting ahead of myself a little. P.S. Prima donna Scott has made it clear he ain't botherin' with this one unless it's a major, so it looks like Cory and I might be on our own. No fretting over initial destination and the inevitable booking of a flight is a bit bla But, ya never know when and where! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Turtle Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, Josh!! Hope things work out with your new equipment and the chase. My hubby would be so excited to be on this!!!! Take care of yourselves! --Turtle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sarwx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Oh hi Josh... glad to meet you! My place is yours if you want to chase it 60 miles inland!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidniteEscape Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Looking forward to real and reliable reports and observations as I find those quite interesting regardless of cane or not. This storm needs to stop putzing around and start producing some real convection, like now! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
turtlehurricane Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Good luck Josh! Even a strong TS is worth chasing since you're already there imo, it'll still have all the flavor of a good TC. The racing low clouds, the torrential downpours, the bursts of wind. And like you said, you may be the only one to get good obs of this if it hits in the middle of nowhere. I'll be chasing from the air Friday morning, beating you to the punch by a little Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Probably not much change with the next package with track or guidance. San Antonio Bay - Aransas Bay, high end TS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 TS watch Port Mansfield - San Luis Pass Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm actually satisfied with the 10 pm CDT package-- especially given that it's Avila. He points out that that the organization is OK, despite the recent decrease in convection, and he hints at a hurricane approaching the coast Friday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chaser Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Josh, if you ever get anywhere near Houston let me know. Steer that storm more north too while you're at it lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think the models keep shifting Southward towards BRO, and I somehow doubt hurricane force. If Josh and Cory are my football team of tropical chasing, this is a pre-season game, test the equipment, get the rust off. 2008 Super Bowl of Bendy Palm Video Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Teflon Don will slip right over the border into mx 45mph at landfall Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm actually satisfied with the 10 pm CDT package-- especially given that it's Avila. He points out that that the organization is OK, despite the recent decrease in convection, and he hints at a hurricane approaching the coast Friday night. This storm seems pretty lame for a serious tight core snob to chase, just sayin..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmyB Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Best of luck and happy chasin' to the three of you and the little BASTARD too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Noteworthy trend... THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Noteworthy trend... THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK. That part is good, a possibly Northerly trend, but those 10º+ dewpoint depressions, I think this will remain a lopsided storm with that little bit of shear and dry air keeping the North side mostly naked. I don't see that changing much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 This storm seems pretty lame for a serious tight core snob to chase, just sayin..... And yet still more dramatic than anything you guys have seen in the last 20 years. Best of luck and happy chasin' to the three of you and the little BASTARD too Thanks, Amy. If the storm stays at its current blah intensity, I'm thinking it'll be a good test run for data collection. I definitely won't waste energy shooting video of a TS. And if it really busts, I enjoy a couple of days in Corpus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 And yet still more dramatic than anything you guys have seen in the last 20 years. Thanks, Amy. If the storm stays at its current blah intensity, I'm thinking it'll be a good test run for data collection. I definitely won't waste energy shooting video of a TS. And if it really busts, I enjoy a couple of days in Corpus. There ya go Josh, ignore the pessimistic bunch. Have fun regardless of what happens! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 Noteworthy trend... THE INITIAL MOTION IS NOW 305/12. DON IS TO THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES...AND THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THIS FEATURE TO PERSIST FOR THE NEXT 36-48 HR. THIS SHOULD STEER DON GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD TO WEST- NORTHWESTWARD UNTIL LANDFALL ON THE TEXAS COAST BETWEEN 36-48 HR. WHILE THE TRACK GUIDANCE AGREES ON THIS SCENARIO...THERE HAS BEEN A SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE GUIDANCE SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...WITH THE CENTER OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE NOW NORTH OF CORPUS CHRISTI. THE NEW TRACK FORECAST WILL ALSO SHIFT NORTHWARD BUT STAYS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE NEW GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THE ECMWF AND UKMET FORECAST TRACKS ARE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE TO THE SOUTH OF THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK.[/b] Yeah, the plus side right now is the track: a landfall S of the border is looking less and less likely. So now we just have to worry about intensity. As I mentioned to Adam, a sh*tload can happen with a small system in 36 hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think CRP is about the prettiest town in Texas, and the beaches at Aransas should be perfect if Josh and Cory want to get out and about. There is a Hawaiian theme bar in nearby Kingsville, if they are up for adventure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I think CRP is about the prettiest town in Texas, and the beaches at Aransas should be perfect if Josh and Cory want to get out and about. Yeah, I dig Corpus and I haven't been there in a while, so I'm psyched to be there either way. And it'll be fun to hang more with Cory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Yeah, the plus side right now is the track: a landfall S of the border is looking less and less likely. So now we just have to worry about intensity. As I mentioned to Adam, a sh*tload can happen with a small system in 36 hr. Indeed, although things are certainly not boding too well with the bullish predictions, which is also affecting the track, since a weaker system was always more susceptible to taking a more northerly track. In fact the main reason why the storm is getting sheared right now is that the low level flow is southeasterly while the upper levels are easterly, creating northerly shear over the system as the low level flow is forcing the system to move further north. If we can get a more vertically deep system, I still wouldn't discount a more southerly track, but if Don doesn't get much stronger, a landfall farther north is more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 There ya go Josh, ignore the pessimistic bunch. Have fun regardless of what happens! Thanks, Katie-- we will. I'm a glass-half-full dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If Don looks sickly, you can fly to Tampico to chase it's mid level vortex. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 If the cyclone remains a TS, then this will be a data-gathering missing, with the goal being to hit the core and get some good readings. Based on the current forecast track, it doesn't look like we'll need to go very far from CRP. It'll be a good practice run for real chases later in the season. And if the thing surprises us all and becomes something interesting, that's icing on the cake. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 If Don looks sickly, you can fly to Tampico to chase it's mid level vortex. And perhaps you can meet us there to receive your Excellence in Tropical Forecasting award-- to celebrate your achievements with this system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If the cyclone remains a TS, then this will be a data-gathering missing, with the goal being to hit the core and get some good readings. Based on the current forecast track, it doesn't look like we'll need to go very far from CRP. It'll be a good practice run for real chases later in the season. And if the thing surprises us all and becomes something interesting, that's icing on the cake. I'm remaining optimistic for you guys. One thing, though, if Cory gets near the water, make sure he has his floaties on, kthx. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmx Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 And perhaps you can meet us there to receive your Excellence in Tropical Forecasting award-- to celebrate your achievements with this system. Cool, I will bring half the board members to share the prize. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 28, 2011 Author Share Posted July 28, 2011 I'm remaining optimistic for you guys. One thing, though, if Cory gets near the water, make sure he has his floaties on, kthx. Will do. Cool, I will bring half the board members to share the prize. Many-- including Adam-- were bearish. Anyhow, let's not call this a bust and try to spread blame just yet. Perhaps a miracle will validate you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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