HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Well, it looks like we have TS Don near the Yucatan, heading in the general direction of TX. Since, by coincidence, I'm already in TX-- to do some instrument testing with Cory-- this couldn't be more convenient. Rather than hand-wringing in CA Re: whether I should fly to TX for what will probably be a small-ish cyclone, I can just chill here and wait for it. Noice! First step: I made a hotel reservation in Corpus Christi, as that seems to be a very rough midpoint in the cluster of modeled landfall locations. I generally have a strict rule of not chasing in groups-- I chase alone or with one other dude-- but this is a special occasion, and if all works out, Scott (my regular chase partner), Cory, and I will chase Don together! Should be cool. One other issue: my camera equipment is in L.A. Ugh. If the threat looks real, a friend of mine is going to go in my pad, get my stuff, and FedEx it to me in Corpus. Game on, mofos!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PSUBlizzicane2007 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good Luck!! hopefully you won't have to cross the border at all and can stay in Texas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hugo Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Well, it looks like we have TS Don near the Yucatan, heading in the general direction of TX. Since, by coincidence, I'm already in TX-- to do some instrument testing with Cory-- this couldn't be more convenient. Rather than hand-wringing in CA Re: whether I should fly to TX for what will probably be a small-ish cyclone, I can just chill here and wait for it. Noice! First step: I made a hotel reservation in Corpus Christi, as that seems to be a very rough midpoint in the cluster of modeled landfall locations. I generally have a strict rule of not chasing in groups-- I chase alone or with one other dude-- but this is a special occasion, and if all works out, Scott (my regular chase partner), Cory, and I will chase Don together! Should be cool. One other issue: my camera equipment is in L.A. Ugh. If the threat looks real, a friend of mine is going to go in my pad, get my stuff, and FedEx it to me in Corpus. Game on, mofos!! I bet you're clearing lamps off tables right about now. Good luck with the chasing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 If it is between CRP and BRO/SPI, you're going to have a hard time exactly positioning for an eye intercept, if it strengthens that much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bubba hotep Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Get some smoked brisket at Rudy's! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 If it is between CRP and BRO/SPI, you're going to have a hard time exactly positioning for an eye intercept, if it strengthens that much. How old is that map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 No idea, but I think private ranch land occupies much of the space between Kingsville and the Valley. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 No idea, but I think private ranch land occupies much of the space between Kingsville and the Valley. I've been down there before for a chase. I know the area well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isopycnic Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 If it is between CRP and BRO/SPI, you're going to have a hard time exactly positioning for an eye intercept, if it strengthens that much. is that map from 1969? I'm never driving anywhere with retardEd... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phil882 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I hope you have your passport ready Josh! My concern is that as the guidance trends stronger, the track will also be increasingly more south. I'm working on my forecast map, but a track near the TX/MX border is my first thought. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Woo hoo a storm where you can stay in the US (possibly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I've been down there before for a chase. I know the area well. OK, good, because the consensus of the mets I trust is BRO to near CRP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 I hope you have your passport ready Josh! My concern is that as the guidance trends stronger, the track will also be increasingly more south. I'm working on my forecast map, but a track near the TX/MX border is my first thought. Yep, I have my passport. Not sure about Cory and Scott, though. I may have to beg Jorge to meet me at the border. I hope you're wrong of course-- border straddlers are such a pain in the azz. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 is that map from 1969? It looks late '60s. The Interstates are not finished. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Guessing at the forecast that is coming out. High end TS just S of Matagorda Bay. Possible cane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Forecast is out. Max intensity is 55 kt, but well offshore-- so a hurricane landfall is implied. The have it on a solid WNW track, way N of the border. The general landfall point is between Matagorda and Corpus Christi Bays: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good luck with the Chase, Josh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Forecast is out. Max intensity is 55 kt, but well offshore-- so a hurricane landfall is implied. The have it on a solid WNW track, way N of the border. The general landfall point is between Matagorda and Corpus Christi Bays: You knew this two hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrips27 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good luck Josh! Hope he bombs out for ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good luck with the Chase, Josh. Thanks, Don! What are your thoughts Re: the landfall location and intensity? You know I always take your opinion seriously. You knew this two hours ago. Yes-- you are right as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Srain Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 For those that don't know... THE INITIAL MOTION IS A SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN 295/10. DON IS SOUTH OF A LOW/MID-LEVEL RIDGE OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW DEVELOPING TO THE NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF THE STORM. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST THAT WITHIN 24 HR DON WILL BECOME EMBEDDED IN DEEP-LAYER EASTERLY TO SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW THAT SHOULD PERSIST FOR SEVERAL DAYS. THIS EVOLUTION SHOULD STEER THE STORM GENERALLY NORTHWESTWARD. WHILE THE MODELS AGREE WITH THIS SCENARIO...THERE IS A SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE ON WHERE DON WILL REACH THE NORTHWESTERN GULF COAST. THE GFDL AND GFS ARE FARTHEST TO THE RIGHT...CLOSER TO THE HOUSTON/ GALVESTON AREA. THE UKMET/ECMWF ARE FARTHEST TO THE LEFT...CLOSER TO THE BROWNSVILLE AREA. THE FORECAST TRACK LIES BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES AND IS CLOSE TO THE VARIOUS CONSENSUS MODELS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
msp Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 best of luck, josh, and i hope you're enjoying your time in texas! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Congrats on the upcoming first chase of the season, Josh!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HurricaneJosh Posted July 27, 2011 Author Share Posted July 27, 2011 Good Luck!! hopefully you won't have to cross the border at all and can stay in Texas I bet you're clearing lamps off tables right about now. Good luck with the chasing. Woo hoo a storm where you can stay in the US (possibly) Good luck Josh! Hope he bombs out for ya. best of luck, josh, and i hope you're enjoying your time in texas! Congrats on the upcoming first chase of the season, Josh!!! Thanks, guys. Cory and I are thrilled at the possibility of getting to use the equipment so soon after the recent testing. It's almost like a fantasy if it come true! Even if it's a small 'cane- like some 70-kt deal-- it'll be totally awesome. I never get tired of 'em-- even the little babycanes-- and it'll be sweet to collect core data. Our obs might end up being really useful, especially if the cyclone comes ashore in the middle of nowhere-- i.e., the ranchlands between Corpus and BRO-- and the core misses any official observing stations. OK, I'm getting ahead of myself a little. P.S. Prima donna Scott has made it clear he ain't botherin' with this one unless it's a major, so it looks like Cory and I might be on our own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yay! Josh's first 2011 cane chase!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mallow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 P.S. Prima donna Scott has made it clear he ain't botherin' with this one unless it's a major, so it looks like Cory and I might be on our own. Well let's hope we have a primo Don for our prima donna! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yay! Josh's first 2011 cane chase!!! You know something the rest of us dont know? good luck Josh, Talk about perfect timing. Would be neat to see how the BASTARD does in this system. go get Don!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Josh, I know its hot down there... but do try to wear a shirt with sleeves. Wind blown debris can hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scott747 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Thanks, guys. Cory and I are thrilled at the possibility of getting to use the equipment so soon after the recent testing. It's almost like a fantasy if it come true! Even if it's a small 'cane- like some 70-kt deal-- it'll be totally awesome. I never get tired of 'em-- even the little babycanes-- and it'll be sweet to collect core data. Our obs might end up being really useful, especially if the cyclone comes ashore in the middle of nowhere-- i.e., the ranchlands between Corpus and BRO-- and the core misses any official observing stations. OK, I'm getting ahead of myself a little. P.S. Prima donna Scott has made it clear he ain't botherin' with this one unless it's a major, so it looks like Cory and I might be on our own. I knew you were upset about not seeing that special order I had made for you involving a certain political figure. Should have kept it a surprise and didn't think you would lash out like this. Make sure and send me the hotel addy and I'll go ahead and overnight it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Avdave Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Josh, I know its hot down there... but do try to wear a shirt with sleeves. Wind blown debris can hurt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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