12z models

[MJO812]

Why is everyone worried? We are 7-8 days away from this event and the Euro hasn't been stellar of late. Still alot of time to go. It also seems like the HPC is going with the GFS.

[SnoSki14]

HPC

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT

SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET

HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE

SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN

UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE

N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7

SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A

STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS

12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER

FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS

REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH

CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z.

A MINOR SFC PROG MADE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN

AND LASTEST 12Z GFS WITH A REFORMING COASTAL LOW OFF VA CAPES LATE

SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE

SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK

DAYS 7-8 SUN/MON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS AT 12Z IS WEST OF THE

APPLACHNS AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW.

[isnice]

I saw snow but nothing gigantic...

http://www.americanw.../1601-12z-euro/

The Euro was about 200 miles and 12 hours off on the clipper plus overdid the qpf a bit...did better than the GFS, which sheared the sh*t out of that system and had nothing coming through.

You're right, because DC got 8 inches of snow and so did Boston

At least that;s what I read in the link you posted...

[isnice]

HPC

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT

SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET

HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE

SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN

UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE

N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7

SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A

STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS

12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER

FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS

REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH

CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z.

A MINOR SFC PROG MADE ADJUSTMENT CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF ENS MEAN

AND LASTEST 12Z GFS WITH A REFORMING COASTAL LOW OFF VA CAPES LATE

SUNDAY. THIS CONTINUES THE LOW CONFIDENCE AND UNCERTAINTY WITH THE

SHORTWAVE AMPLITUDE AND INTENSITY ALONG WITH THE SFC LOW TRACK

DAYS 7-8 SUN/MON. CONSENSUS OF MODEL RUNS AT 12Z IS WEST OF THE

APPLACHNS AND A WESTWARD ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NEEDED TOMORROW.

Aren't those the same people that had New York in a blizzard warning for that January 2008 rainstorm?

[MJO812]

Aren't those the same people that had New York in a blizzard warning for that January 2008 rainstorm?

Yes. That was a horrible storm

[isnice]

JB should say this run will be wrong....

He's gonna socre a coup my guts thinks.

What he really should say is that he doesn't know.

Anyway, what do you mean by that?

[NEXtreme]

JB should say this run will be wrong....

He's gonna socre a coup my guts thinks.

BTW ...JB is starting to question if the -Nao continues into January and that it might be colder ...hes worried about his warm call for January.

[phlwx]

You're right, because DC got 8 inches of snow and so did Boston

At least that;s what I read in the link you posted...

The OP referred to the storm as gigantic. I didn't know 8" was a gigantic storm given the Mid Atlantic got 3 foot plus storms last winter. Like I said, the EURO was about 200 miles too far north on the clipper and probably too slow and robust on the precip. NC did get 3" of snow, FWIW.

FWIW the GFS had a MECS on the East Coast on 12/6 so feel free to praise it while bashing the EURO.

[Kaner587]

The OP referred to the storm as gigantic. I didn't know 8" was a gigantic storm given the Mid Atlantic got 3 foot plus storms last winter. Like I said, the EURO was about 200 miles too far north on the clipper and probably too slow and robust on the precip. NC did get 3" of snow, FWIW.

FWIW the GFS had a MECS on the East Coast on 12/6 so feel free to praise it while bashing the EURO.

Ya in fantasy land ...the Euro had it much closer to the event. Also you're really going to harp on the "gigantic" part of my post? Clearly that wasn't the point of my post so if you wanna play semantics enjoy. When you want to actually debate model analysis I'm all ears.

[opengeo]

Isn't it interesting though that there's no win-win solution. There are a lot of people that would rather see it rain than snow, or just have neither rain or snow. I know a lot of people would rather have it be warm and sunny in NJ, we don't need all of that extra traffic problems with snow.

For snow lovers, you're working against a time limit of about 3 weeks or up till about Christmas because eventually it will be nearly impossible to get snows as the blocking completely breaks down and we truly see the scope of our La Nina and the infamous SE ridge. So if the mid month storm does end up rain, then I'm not sure if the snow weenies will get another opportunity for a significant snow event.

I can't wait what JB and Henry have to say about the storm after today's model runs though.

I'm breathless with anticipation. If you're taking your cues from these clowns, it's no wonder you're so explosive on these threads. Like I said, consider taking a couple of days off.

[SLAM22]

I'm breathless with anticipation. If you're taking your cues from these clowns, it's no wonder you're so explosive on these threads. Like I said, consider taking a couple of days off.

I wish there was a "like" button on here!

[opengeo]

I'll say this...and I'm sure many will agree. Models are much more likely to trend in our favor when the out-to-sea threat is more of a possibility. In this case, the inland solution is the more probable solution, given the lack of a strong block, or 50/50, even though the details have yet to be worked out. Since I started model watching, I have noticed that these models tend to lock in on inland solutions sooner than coastal solutions. That's not to say there haven't been exceptions. But, with the Euro and GGEM showing inland tracks, I think we're all a bit nervous at this point, 180 hours out or not. Aloft, a lot is going to need to change in future model runs, for this to be a snow event, certainly down this way.

[phlwx]

Ya in fantasy land ...the Euro had it much closer to the event. Also you're really going to harp on the "gigantic" part of my post? Clearly that wasn't the point of my post so if you wanna play semantics enjoy. When you want to actually debate model analysis I'm all ears.

I'm all for model debate...all for being realistic too.

I don't think throwing "gigantic" around for a storm that wasn't supposed to bring anyone around here more than 8" of snow is accurate but feel free to engage in hyperbole about a model's supposed failure with a storm when it was off by 200 miles and 12 hours at 180 hours.

FWIW, said clipper dropped 3" of snow in Eastern NC and 8" of snow in SW VA...being 200 miles off at 7.5 days is pretty good.

[SnoSki14]

It does make you wonder though about how we could get a snow event. So that's my question, how can we get a good snow event in the pattern we're in? It's not the most favorable pattern for us, we have a lot of things working against us despite the -NAO.

[Kaner587]

I'm all for model debate...all for being realistic too.

I don't think throwing "gigantic" around for a storm that wasn't supposed to bring anyone around here more than 8" of snow is accurate but feel free to engage in hyperbole about a model's supposed failure with a storm when it was off by 200 miles and 12 hours at 180 hours.

FWIW, said clipper dropped 3" of snow in Eastern NC and 8" of snow in SW VA...being 200 miles off at 7.5 days is pretty good.

Again, I never said the models suggested a big storm for the NYC area...read what I said. Gigantic was in reference to the GGEM. Euro showed a big storm esp for new england with 1+ in of liquid for Bos. Gigantic? No...Big? Yes. My point is that the Euro and GGEM performed worse during that period than the GFS. Show me some evidence that my assertion is incorrect.

[phlwx]

Again, I never said the models suggested a big storm for the NYC area...read what I said. Gigantic was in reference to the GGEM. Euro showed a big storm esp for new england with 1+ in of liquid for Bos. Gigantic? No...Big? Yes. My point is that the Euro and GGEM performed worse during that period than the GFS. Show me some evidence that my assertion is incorrect.

considering the gfs had a mecs for tomorrow was it really any better?

http://www.americanw...s/page__st__200

BTW, at day 6 the Euro performance clearly is ahead of the GFS:

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html

as well as day 7:

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/STATS/html/aczd357.html

[Chris L]

The 12z GGEM Ensembles.... do not agree with the OP.

According to CoastalWX in the New England Thread,

FWIW 12z Canadian ensembles want nothing to do with the op run. They wash out the clipper, but take the second low just inside the BM and east of Cape Cod.

[WinterWxLuvr]

Anyone know what the Euro ensembles showed, or when they come out?

[isnice]

I'll say this...and I'm sure many will agree. Models are much more likely to trend in our favor when the out-to-sea threat is more of a possibility. In this case, the inland solution is the more probable solution, given the lack of a strong block, or 50/50, even though the details have yet to be worked out. Since I started model watching, I have noticed that these models tend to lock in on inland solutions sooner than coastal solutions. That's not to say there haven't been exceptions. But, with the Euro and GGEM showing inland tracks, I think we're all a bit nervous at this point, 180 hours out or not. Aloft, a lot is going to need to change in future model runs, for this to be a snow event, certainly down this way.

Ok this I can understand. You stated logical reasons as to why we should believe the European model instead of just cancelling the storm because of it. Every post should be like this.

[Kaner587]

considering the gfs had a mecs for tomorrow was it really any better?

http://www.americanw...s/page__st__200

BTW, at day 6 the Euro performance clearly is ahead of the GFS:

http://www.emc.ncep..../html/acz6.html

you're actually proving my point lol...you're showing fantasy land GFS and I'm talking about <7 days EURO and GGEM.

[phlwx]

you're actually proving my point lol...you're showing fantasy land GFS and I'm talking about <7 days EURO and GGEM. Also it seems like you don't know how to read. Posting that the Euro performance within 6 days is ahead of the GFS is great, we all know this. I wasn't talking about which model performs better overall. I was talking about that specific period which the EURO did AWFUL in. consistently showing the confluence much farther north then it ended up being. Who modeled it correctly within 7 days? the GFS

Yeah...so that sheared out storm on the GFS that didn't drop snow in NC and SW VA really didn't happen? It might have been right IYBY but it whiffed on the clipper still producing and producing a pretty nice event.

Again, enjoy the 12/6 MECS that was modeled on the GFS though because it's clearly superior in your eyes to the Euro.

[Kaner587]

Yeah...so that sheared out storm on the GFS that didn't drop snow in NC and SW VA really didn't happen? It might have been right IYBY but it whiffed on the clipper still producing and producing a pretty nice event.

Again, enjoy the 12/6 MECS that was modeled on the GFS though because it's clearly superior in your eyes to the Euro.

Why do you keep putting words in my mouth? I never said anything like that, I'm just pointing out that the EURO did awful with the last 2 storm chances in the NE. It is a superior model to the GFS and no one is going to argue it. It doens't mean it doesn't have its own flaws and cannot be wrong though...

[Alpha5]

Euro ensembles are further se than the OP

Low goes over NYC

[phlwx]

Why do you keep putting words in my mouth? I never said anything like that, I'm just pointing out that the EURO did awful with the last 2 storm chances in the NE. It is a superior model to the GFS and no one is going to argue it. It doens't mean it doesn't have its own flaws and cannot be wrong though...

Fair enough...I guess it seems you're quick to criticize the euro and not bash the gfs equally...it's clear after 6/7 days model performance is prone to big errors on either side.

[whiteoutwx1796]

Yeah...so that sheared out storm on the GFS that didn't drop snow in NC and SW VA really didn't happen? It might have been right IYBY but it whiffed on the clipper still producing and producing a pretty nice event.

Again, enjoy the 12/6 MECS that was modeled on the GFS though because it's clearly superior in your eyes to the Euro.

1 event does not make a model's reputation. I know the GFS has had it's share of problems, but are you really basing your point off of 1 event? If that's the case we shouldn't be looking at any model.

[isnice]

The 12z GGEM Ensembles.... do not agree with the OP.

According to CoastalWX in the New England Thread,

FWIW 12z Canadian ensembles want nothing to do with the op run. They wash out the clipper, but take the second low just inside the BM and east of Cape Cod.

I'm really interested in seeing the Euro ensembles. I'd like to compare them to last night's and see if the op is on crack or if new data was just recently taken into account.

By the way, does anyone know the Euro's verification record in La Nina winters?

[isnice]

Euro ensembles are further se than the OP

Low goes over NYC

Where are you getting that from?

[tombo82685]

here is the euro 12z qpf, knock off about a tenth from these totals and you have the totals from the cutter

gray- .75-1

lgt pink- 1-1.25

lgt yellow- 1.25-1.5

lgt blue- 1.5-1.75

dark pink- 1.75-2

red- 2-2.5

[A-L-E-X]

The OP referred to the storm as gigantic.   I didn't know 8" was a gigantic storm given the Mid Atlantic got 3 foot plus storms last winter.  Like I said, the EURO was about 200 miles too far north on the clipper and probably too slow and robust on the precip.  NC did get 3" of snow, FWIW.

FWIW the GFS had a MECS on the East Coast on 12/6 so feel free to praise it while bashing the EURO.

well 8" is a major snow storm, but not gigantic lol.  I dont think we have a definition for gigantic.... but Im going to repost something I had on eastern about how I judge snowstorms:

4-8" SECS

8-16" MECS

16+" HECS

[Chris L]

well 8" is a major snow storm, but not gigantic lol. I dont think we have a definition for gigantic.... but Im going to repost something I had on eastern about how I judge snowstorms:

4-8" SECS

8-16" MECS

16+" HECS

And 24+ is a BECS....