12z models

[earthlight]

988mb over Northeast PA at 186 hrs. 552 thickness to just south of Boston.

[earthlight]

982mb over Albany at 192, raining everywhere except for Northern Maine.

[phlwx]

Neat looking storm although the weenies will hate the outcome...looks like a nice squall line like last Wednesday if this verified.

[isnice]

Any chance that this is the result of the clipper coming further south?

[SnoSki14]

Yeah I figured we'd be seeing 60F and heavy rain again, didn't know it would be so soon, at least most of NE gets screwed too.

[Thunder Road]

I would now favor the month ending up a bit below normal especially if we do not get a lake cutter solution this month.

Yeah I figured we'd be seeing 60F and heavy rain again, didn't know it would be so soon, at least most of NE gets screwed too.

Ok so which is it?

[Weathergun]

Any chance that this is the result of the clipper coming further south?

The problems start out west by 144hr. With the ridge axis still offshore. It doesn't build up fast enough before the energy upstream arrives into the West. It starts digging too early.

[Kaner587]

Yeah I figured we'd be seeing 60F and heavy rain again, didn't know it would be so soon, at least most of NE gets screwed too.

This is 1 model solution 8 days out. Did you forget what the GGEM and EURO had for today 1 week out? Gigantic snowstorm for Mid atlantic and New england. Stop pretending that this is set in stone when we both know that there are about 10 different possibilities for this storm. Until we have model consensus that says something other than "there will be a storm in this time period" making comments like this are inflammatory and offer no meteorological analysis and show how little meteorological knowledge you SEEM to have.

[daxx]

Yeah I figured we'd be seeing 60F and heavy rain again, didn't know it would be so soon, at least most of NE gets screwed too.

What are you going to say when the next model run shows 30s,and snow. WOW!!!

[opengeo]

Yeah I figured we'd be seeing 60F and heavy rain again, didn't know it would be so soon, at least most of NE gets screwed too.

You are out of control man. Take a couple of days off. And you shouldn't be rooting against anyone to see snow, as it shouldn't be a competition.

Who were you at Eastern? Ace? Colin?

[Kaner587]

Jetski..do you make those posts to piss people off or to feel better about the situation (ie reverse psychology). I'm still debating which one it is

[Thunder Road]

Jetski..do you make those posts to piss people off or to feel better about the situation (ie reverse psychology). I'm still debating which one it is

and all of a sudden he is conveniently silent

[Chris L]

Problem is largely the lack of a classic PNA and a lack of a textbook West based -NAO.

IF those things can change significantly, (which is possible given if the sfc low in the plains becomes weaker by two fold),

then we got a huge event unfolding....

[Thunder Road]

Moving away from the JetSki09 controversy, I pose a question:

When people say the models are under-forecasting the -NAO block, what exactly do they mean?

Is it possible, then, that the Clipper would become a stronger block and help force its own redevelopment farther east? Or does the entire set-up rely on a previously-established block?

I don't like what I'm seeing from the Euro and the GGEM today (the NOGAPS isn't even worth looking at) but a stronger block could change their storm tracks.

[tombo82685]

Moving away from the JetSki09 controversy, I pose a question:

When people say the models are under-forecasting the -NAO block, what exactly do they mean?

Is it possible, then, that the Clipper would become a stronger block and help force its own redevelopment farther east? Or does the entire set-up rely on a previously-established block?

I don't like what I'm seeing from the Euro and the GGEM today (the NOGAPS isn't even worth looking at) but a stronger block could change their storm tracks.

it means they are trying to weaken it quicker than it really is

[SnoSki14]

There's no need to take me so seriously, i use sarcasm a lot. What I really think is that December will end below average, just by using the next several days as a base, we're going to be way below average (-10+ departures though Thursday). I think any threat beyond Day 3-5 should never be taken too seriously because models are not perfect.

As far as the Day 8 threat goes, it's just a threat at this point, no need to judge specifics. If it rains, it rains, if it snows, it snows. there's no sense to become upset at the solution no matter what happens.

[CooL]

There's no need to take me so seriously, i use sarcasm a lot. What I really think is that December will end below average, just by using the next several days as a base, we're going to be way below average (-10+ departures though Thursday). I think any threat beyond Day 3-5 should never be taken too seriously because models are not perfect.

As far as the Day 8 threat goes, it's just a threat at this point, no need to judge specifics. If it rains, it rains, if it snows, it snows. there's no sense to become upset at the solution no matter what happens.

thx for stating the obvious

[Animal]

This is 1 model solution 8 days out. Did you forget what the GGEM and EURO had for today 1 week out? Gigantic snowstorm for Mid atlantic and New england. Stop pretending that this is set in stone when we both know that there are about 10 different possibilities for this storm. Until we have model consensus that says something other than "there will be a storm in this time period" making comments like this are inflammatory and offer no meteorological analysis and show how little meteorological knowledge you SEEM to have.

Not sure what you were looking at exactly. It showed a storm for a few runs only and then put the kabbash on it.

if your only friend is the GFS currently and Henry M, I would not get a woody over it. Sure it can change during the next 5 days, but multiple models have a track west of the Apps.

[isnice]

This is 1 model solution 8 days out. Did you forget what the GGEM and EURO had for today 1 week out? Gigantic snowstorm for Mid atlantic and New england. Stop pretending that this is set in stone when we both know that there are about 10 different possibilities for this storm. Until we have model consensus that says something other than "there will be a storm in this time period" making comments like this are inflammatory and offer no meteorological analysis and show how little meteorological knowledge you SEEM to have.

AMEN!

I'm not saying that this won't be the solution, nor am I saying that what the GFS shows will be the solution. It's okay to express your opinion, but don't say that just because the Euro shows x, x will happen. If there's one thing I learned from this forum, it's that meteorology is about interpretation. Anyone can read a model and say that whatever it's showing will happen. What makes a skilled meteorologist is interpreting the data given and saying to themselves, "hmmm, is this really what will happen given the atmospheric set-up in each layer."

So please, try not to be completely bent towards one model (unless it's the Euro vs. Crass lol) and include every bit on input into a post. If not, the threads turn into either all negativity or all hype and that's not fun to read.

[Chris L]

trough goes too early on a negative tilt....

I like the 500 setup with the closed low, but we have other issues to deal with before we talk about snow.

Get the synoptics right, then we can talk about snow and the totals....

[isnice]

trough goes too early on a negative tilt....

Don't you think that the first clipper and the storm have a relationship somewhere? Is it better for the clipper to be further north than south?

[tombo82685]

Don't you think that the first clipper and the storm have a relationship somewhere? Is it better for the clipper to be further north than south?

yea i deff do. I think you need that clipper further south or weaker or something. With the track its taking and how slow it is, its holding up the cold air from moving in.

[tmagan]

I got criticized for saying this a few weeks ago, but there is a reason why New York City's average December and November snowfall combined is about three inches.

[SnoSki14]

Isn't it interesting though that there's no win-win solution. There are a lot of people that would rather see it rain than snow, or just have neither rain or snow. I know a lot of people would rather have it be warm and sunny in NJ, we don't need all of that extra traffic problems with snow.

For snow lovers, you're working against a time limit of about 3 weeks or up till about Christmas because eventually it will be nearly impossible to get snows as the blocking completely breaks down and we truly see the scope of our La Nina and the infamous SE ridge. So if the mid month storm does end up rain, then I'm not sure if the snow weenies will get another opportunity for a significant snow event.

I can't wait what JB and Henry have to say about the storm after today's model runs though.

[phlwx]

This is 1 model solution 8 days out. Did you forget what the GGEM and EURO had for today 1 week out? Gigantic snowstorm for Mid atlantic and New england. Stop pretending that this is set in stone when we both know that there are about 10 different possibilities for this storm. Until we have model consensus that says something other than "there will be a storm in this time period" making comments like this are inflammatory and offer no meteorological analysis and show how little meteorological knowledge you SEEM to have.

I saw snow but nothing gigantic...

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php?/topic/1601-12z-euro/

The Euro was about 200 miles and 12 hours off on the clipper plus overdid the qpf a bit...did better than the GFS, which sheared the sh*t out of that system and had nothing coming through.

[Kaner587]

Not sure what you were looking at exactly. It showed a storm for a few runs only and then put the kabbash on it.

if your only friend is the GFS currently and Henry M, I would not get a woody over it. Sure it can change during the next 5 days, but multiple models have a track west of the Apps.

First of all, I never quantified how many runs the EURO and GGEM showed storms, I just stated a FACT. Second of all, I am talking about the fact that this is not set in stone. Where in my post do I even lead you to believe that I am expecting a GFS type scenario to occur? It's fine to curtail your expectations as I will do the same based on the fact that this 1+ week out and while model solutions have converged on a storm, having the GGEM and EURO with a wrapped up cutter plays right into their biases (as does the more southeast solution of the GFS). I don't read henry M AT ALL and consider myself to be a realistic person. I'm not going to sit here and pretend that a model solution 8 days out is set in stone. That is all

[CooL]

Don't you think that the first clipper and the storm have a relationship somewhere? Is it better for the clipper to be further north than south?

i think it mainly has to do with the ridge out west. It starts to pump out in the pacific on the euro, rather than the western U.S, setting things in motion with the phasing energy, and the trough going neg. wayyy to quick for the big cities to get snow. But by no means is this set in stone.

[Animal]

yea i deff do. I think you need that clipper further south or weaker or something. With the track its taking and how slow it is, its holding up the cold air from moving in.

Tombo..I noticed you posted in the weatter discussion thread about posssible squalls and snow showers tomorrow.

It this the enire forecast zone or more towards the poconos and NW NJ

[tombo82685]

Tombo..I noticed you posted in the weatter discussion thread about posssible squalls and snow showers tomorrow.

It this the enire forecast zone or more towards the poconos and NW NJ

entire area for then it shifts more towards the se pa....you know how people have posted the high res models with that lake effect stream, the following 6 hrs after the widespread snow it showed that over se pa into nj

[Animal]

I got criticized for saying this a few weeks ago, but there is a reason why New York City's average December and November snowfall combined is about three inches.

Valid point. any snow in december over a few inches is a good start to winter.

After last year, some posters may have short memories of what a bad or terrible winter is related to climo.