12z models

[Analog96]

NOGAPS is also a lakes cutter.

Somebody had to do it.

[SnoSki14]

Maybe if they're showing a cutter 8 days out that it will change for the better although it seems that every time models show a cutter 8+ days out in the future, the runs never change to anything else and we always get the lake cutter. That never happens if they have a coastal solution 8+ days out.

[Kaner587]

Jetski I thought it would take DAYS to erase the positive departures of the torch that was Dec 1st and seasonable temps that occurred after? Oh wait it took two days and we are below normal for the month. Oops

[Chris L]

Maybe if they're showing a cutter 8 days out that it will change for the better although it seems that every time models show a cutter 8+ days out in the future, the runs never change to anything else and we always get the lake cutter. That never happens if they have a coastal solution 8+ days out.

Where were you January 30th to February 6 2010?

and your post makes no sense, because it is all the synoptic setup that shows it...

[stormtracker]

Not mine per se, the sub forum's. I remember when we had to go practically begging to the SNE forum for info on the EURO and we would be lucky if they threw us a bone.

It's a little upsetting though that we get called the worst on the site and then are asked to provide any services the regional members have. Not the staff's fault but you obviously want the model info for the members, not the staff.

Finally I thought we were supposed to break into our forums and discuss the models there instead of superthreads in the general?

Randy it's not my info anyway and i know you want the best for this place so tombo and others

Can do what they want. I came off sounding harsh so my apologies.

No, its fine...I may have sounded harsh with my reply, my apologies..I'm just a little annoyed. I specifically Pm'd with tombo and asked that he put the info in the general forum and then he says ok..then goes and asks the forum the same question...I dunno

Its fine..we asked, you guys said no and that's that. We understand this is a board made by members, so it is what it is...

In the end, i was trying to get greater board participation in the model threads, since model threads aren't inherently region based, especially for a storm affecting the entire coast. And it also keeps people from outside your region from having to come in here and start trolling you guys, etc. At least that was my thought. We never said you couldn't break into regional forums and talk about the affects of a potential storm.

But again..we asked, yall said no and that's fine. No harm, no foul.

And I was 100% serious about the Kudos. This forum has done a serious 180 and people are noticing. I mean...we like to think staff had a little part in that..but you guys deserve most of the credit.

[tombo82685]

No, its fine...I may have sounded harsh with my reply, my apologies..I'm just a little annoyed. I specifically Pm'd with tombo and asked that he put the info in the general forum and then he says ok..then goes and asks the forum the same question...I dunno

Its fine..we asked, you guys said no and that's that. We understand this is a board made by members, so it is what it is...

In the end, i was trying to get greater board participation in the model threads, since model threads aren't inherently region based, especially for a storm affecting the entire coast. And it also keeps people from outside your region from having to come in here and start trolling you guys, etc. At least that was my thought. We never said you couldn't break into regional forums and talk about the affects of a potential storm.

But again..we asked, yall said no and that's fine. No harm, no foul.

i will post the euro stuff into the gen forum but be vague cause its so hard to give details for everyone on this forum, but im gonna concentrate on my area the most in the regional... i didnt know i had to do the gfs since everyone has access to that....though i do expect other ppl who have euro access to chime in there also, i feel like im just getting called out on it cause i do the pbp.

[Thunder Road]

so at this point the EURO is inland - barely. (0Z)

the GFS is coastal (18Z, 0Z, 6Z and 12Z)

the GGEM is either on the coast or a way-too-far-west cutter (0Z and 12Z respectively)

What worries me is the GFS SE bias. But, to counter that worry:

the Euro has been continually trying to dispose of the -NAO and or keep the block too far east on many of its runs in the past week or so.

and really all of the models are having trouble determining the strength of the block.

So where does that leave us?

8 days away from something.

[SnoSki14]

Jetski I thought it would take DAYS to erase the positive departures of the torch that was Dec 1st and seasonable temps that occurred after? Oh wait it took two days and we are below normal for the month. Oops

Well I said it would take 3 days to erase the positive departures and the models have trended colder for the days after that. I stated that temps would be a bit below seasonal values, not at them. As far as December being below normal, it's only the 5th, there is plenty of time for things to change although I would now favor the month ending up a bit below normal especially if we do not get a lake cutter solution this month.

[stormtracker]

i will post the euro stuff into the gen forum but be vague cause its so hard to give details for everyone on this forum, but im gonna concentrate on my area the most in the regional... i didnt know i had to do the gfs since everyone has access to that....though i do expect other ppl who have euro access to chime in there also, i feel like im just getting called out on it cause i do the pbp.

its all good man

[phlwx]

Isn't the purpose of regional subforums defeated if we have to post model runs in the general subforum?

Agreed...I'd rather have the model discussion in the subforums so I can talk about Philly and not listen to DC or SNE congrat themselves and/or b**ch. No offense to those areas but if everyone posts model disco in one thread you might as well go back to regional superthreads in one forum.

Maybe the model discussion should be contained to a daily thread as opposed to 0z, 6, 12, 18? Perhaps 12/5/10 Philly/NY Model Banter?

[earthlight]

Through 96 hours the Euro is much stronger with the confluence over our region. The shortwave is still fairly strong diving into the Plains.

[phlwx]

Through 96 hours the Euro is much stronger with the confluence over our region. The shortwave is still fairly strong diving into the Plains.

cold is not easing through 102 like it did on the 0z...it's a bit slower on the moderation...

[Alpha5]

108, moving north of Iowa

further south with the clipper

[Alpha5]

I'm fairly surprised no one has mentioned that the GFS is completely incapable of forecasting 2 meter temperatures with any degree of accuracy. Why people are using it to determine a "rain / snow" line is beyond me...

especially over 100 hrs out

But youre right the GFS is especially bad at 2m temps

[earthlight]

cold is not easing through 102 like it did on the 0z...it's a bit slower on the moderation...

Yeah, the block is better positioned and more well established this run. We will have to see if this really helps us, though, because the shortwave over the N Plains is slower and stronger so far. More wrapped up at the surface as well.

[Alpha5]

Euro at 120 is much healthier and further south with the QPF, looks colder of the East as well

[phlwx]

I'm fairly surprised no one has mentioned that the GFS is completely incapable of forecasting 2 meter temperatures with any degree of accuracy. Why people are using it to determine a "rain / snow" line is beyond me...

especially over 100 hrs out

But youre right the GFS is especially bad at 2m temps

or the storm track 180 hours out.

[earthlight]

The shortwave and surface low are still way too far north. At 126 hrs the surface low is 1002 mb over northern Minnesota.

[Alpha5]

132, light QPF over the region, 0z had none at this time

Still going too far north, but a step in the right direction

[Alpha5]

Euro now looks more like the GFS for the first storm

[earthlight]

Seems better positioned with the block over the N Atlantic..so we will see where this brings us with the second storm.

[earthlight]

Much higher potential for an inland track this run given the orientation of the shortwave and the confluence. The -NAO block isn't going to do much with the way the shortwave is set up across the Western Plains at 150 hrs.

[Alpha5]

Not good at 156

[earthlight]

995mb surface low over Southern Indiana at hour 168 with a closed H5 trough over Southeast Iowa, Western Illinois, and Eastern Missouri.

[phlwx]

cold air damming on the front end might give the Apps and Poconos some zr verbatim but this is going to be mainly a rain event for the cities.

edit: 174 suggests some front end snow or slop in the mountains and hills west of NYC.

[ptb127]

any chance this thing can bowling ball straight through??

[earthlight]

Huge phase at 174. Surface low is 992mb over Western Ohio. Tremendous CCB from Northeast Missouri through Illinois (Chicago) and into Michigan. As far as we are concerned...light precip this far. Mid level cold is holding on so H85 temps are below zero, but surface temps are above freezing at that point. Western NY State getting some snow at 174 hrs.

[earthlight]

any chance this thing can bowling ball straight through??

Possible but we need more blocking and the first system needs to come further south. The heights just rise dramatically because the first system is weak and the block is transient, and the system phases over the Midwest and cuts inland.

[phlwx]

the 850 line by 180 is PVD-SYR (or thereabouts). +8 is Philly south.

[earthlight]

180 hours 990mb surface low over Northwest PA. Snow in northern New England, everyone else gets a cold front.