buckeye Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 so is it safe to say were at the point of GGEM/EURO camp vs. GFS? the euro looks like the middle ground of the gfs and gem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And I know everyones excited but can we hold off on the '96 analogs for the time being..... Yeah really. We can get a good snowstorm without it being anything like 1996. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-X Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 But the PNA was much larger in Jan 1996, and that allowed more amplification.... IF we can get a better PNA, then maybe we can develop a '96 esque storm. Id be satisfied with a Dec 95 type storm lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris L Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 And I know everyones excited but can we hold off on the '96 analogs for the time being..... I agree with this... and everyone knows me I am probably the biggest fanbase of the that blizzard, but the synoptics are radically different.... I love how we all want February 5-6, 2010 and January 6-8, 1996 to happen again... But let's be realistic on the first point here. I said it before.... IF Feb 5-6th 2010 came up the coast, it would have been NESIS 2 or 3 on the scale.... Those storms do not come often so, have some realstic expectations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hohnywx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Isn't the purpose of regional subforums defeated if we have to post model runs in the general subforum? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 yup....looks like it would go waaaay west...like minnesota and blast warm air ahead of it. sheeesh. doesnt earthlight have the gem out to like 180? he posted it like a couple days ago Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 so is it safe to say were at the point of GGEM/EURO camp vs. GFS? Not even close, I think that the GFS and Euro go hand in hand given their respective biases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Here. I like how the supposed worst sub forum on the site all of a sudden has to divulge it's model info for the general forum. Your model info? lol..this forum was the worst on Eastern (according to some of your own people), but have been strong and good here. Kudos. But I'm pretty much done with asking, so enjoy dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattinpa Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 doesnt earthlight have the gem out to like 180? he posted it like a couple days ago Hi, Tom - on the GGEM, is that the clipper the models have or our main storm? If the main storm, it's definitely a cutter and we have big model differences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It goes out to 180 on ewall only at 00z the 12z ggm only to 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAM22 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Not even close, I think that the GFS and Euro go hand in hand given their respective biases. ok, just saying, it seems with the GGEM way west, the euro taking more of an apps runner, and the GFS off the coast, that everything is still on the table as far as solutions go. But I was more stating that with 2 models going against 1 for a good i-95 solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 only at 00z the 12z ggm only to 144 i looked at the 12z run on ewall (which goes to 180 hr) and its a lakes cutter. Model wars FTL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would actually favor the cutter over anything else, it is a la nina, but we also lack a -NAO and 50/50 at the time the storm is occurring. I don't understand why Henry M. and JB are getting so excited for this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Most locations only have the GGEM going out to 144 hrs on the 12 Z run which would bring this to this time period on the GFS Which means that the storm has not even formed at that point and time yet... The difference is it is way stronger at that time frame of 144 hrs with the S/W dropping down being 993 mbs... Ewall just discovered does go further then 144 but I believe it would be because of the strength on that S/W Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LetItSnowInPhilly Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Pattern looks more conducive to a cutter than a coastal.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weathergun Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 only at 00z the 12z ggm only to 144 It goes out to 180hrs at PSU eyewall. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/CMC_12z/cmcloop.html Anyway, I wouldn't put the the GGEM in the same camp as the Euro. It has no West Coast ridge at 144hr. Unlike the Euro. The 0z Euro is inland because the West Coast ridge is sharper and the 50/50 low is weak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I would actually favor the cutter over anything else, it is a la nina, but we also lack a -NAO and 50/50 at the time the storm is occurring. I don't understand why Henry M. and JB are getting so excited for this. The NAO is negative heading towards neutral before dipping back down once again.... People are getting excited because this is the first legit shot at the potential for a widespread snowstorm and perhaps a significant one as well.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Pattern looks more conducive to a cutter than a coastal.... lol sounds like you saw the 12z ggem and jumped ship Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 only at 00z the 12z ggm only to 144 Haha you're getting them mixed up man. 00z goes out to 144 and 12z goes out to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 NOGAPS is also a lakes cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Haha you're getting them mixed up man. 00z goes out to 144 and 12z goes out to 180 No, 00z goes to 240, and 180 at 12z.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 0z goes out to 240 hrs. Haha you're getting them mixed up man. 00z goes out to 144 and 12z goes out to 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The timing of the storm and the blocking is way off. The NAO goes down after the storm passes and the block resets after the storm occurs when we need it to be in place when the storm is actually occurring. Even with the clipper before the storm threat, the blocking is fading away so we have a clipper that goes to the NW of us and gives us some rain showers and milder highs (mid 40s for Friday and Saturday). Had the timing worked out with the storms, the clipper would have gone far enough south and given us a few inches of snow and the storm threat would not have an opportunity to cut west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 heres the 12z idiv ens runs at hr 180 a good amount are inland cutters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
atownwxwatcher Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 12 Z ECM has initialized..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 12 Z ECM has initialized..... im starting a thread now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sundog Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Your model info? lol..this forum was the worst on Eastern (according to some of your own people), but have been strong and good here. Kudos. But I'm pretty much done with asking, so enjoy dude. Not mine per se, the sub forum's. I remember when we had to go practically begging to the SNE forum for info on the EURO and we would be lucky if they threw us a bone. It's a little upsetting though that we get called the worst on the site and then are asked to provide any services the regional members have. Not the staff's fault but you obviously want the model info for the members, not the staff. Finally I thought we were supposed to break into our forums and discuss the models there instead of superthreads in the general? Randy it's not my info anyway and i know you want the best for this place so tombo and others Can do what they want. I came off sounding harsh so my apologies. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 I think its funny how the models that are usually snowstorm crazy sometimes are showing a lakes cutter (NOGAPS, GGEM) whereas the other models are the ones showing a possible MECS...lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 0z goes out to 240 hrs. I just know on ewall its its180 for 12z and 144 ffor 00z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Would this storm be a Monday? That would be quite nice. Sunday into Monday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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