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12z models


tombo82685

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GFS ensemble means

Those are perty....would love to see the individual members.

And just for the record, if the low on the ECMWF ensembles was 50-75 miles east, most of the region would see blizzard conditions, except for LI :devilsmiley:

I love the model consensus this far out. How many times have we seen the GFS, Euro, and respective ensembles agree on a storm this far out?

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im gonna ask you guys int his thread, do you want the euro in the gen forums or do u want it here still?

i would think in the gen forums things would get crazy with people from all different locations trying to chime in. hence the regional forums were created.

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If the s/w was cut-off, the 500mb would look much like 96 no?

Regardless, my gut tells me this is the one...

No, not even close.

January 1996 had a huge cutoff low that dig quite far south and went on the perfect negative tilt and just formed the ideal track.

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im gonna ask you guys int his thread, do you want the euro in the gen forums or do u want it here still?

Keep it in the general forum. I live in New Jersey but I think it is only right to inform all members. Let the admins delete the imby posts.

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No, not even close.

January 1996 had a huge cutoff low that dig quite far south and went on the perfect negative tilt and just formed the ideal track.

Yea, the gaping whole in what I said is the lack of a cutoff low- that I realize. But look at the rest of the pattern: relatively transient Pacific but slightly ridged, nearly +NAO, amplified trough in east. I think that the only difference is the low.

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im gonna ask you guys int his thread, do you want the euro in the gen forums or do u want it here still?

Why would you even ask then when we asked everyone to post the models in the general forum?

Again, you guys do what you want because its not a hard and fast rule, but its disappointing to see this region as the last hold out and not even attempting to see how this works.

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im gonna ask you guys int his thread, do you want the euro in the gen forums or do u want it here still?

Here. I like how the supposed worst sub forum on the site all of a sudden has to divulge it's model info for the general forum.

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Yea, the gaping whole in what I said is the lack of a cutoff low- that I realize. But look at the rest of the pattern: relatively transient Pacific but slightly ridged, nearly +NAO, amplified trough in east. I think that the only difference is the low.

But the PNA was much larger in Jan 1996, and that allowed more amplification....

IF we can get a better PNA, then maybe we can develop a '96 esque storm.

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