Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:40 PM, TKFJ said: Cold air does not entrench itself in the area before the storm arrives this run. System does not get cranking until it is in NE. Its there though..... That's why with this setup we would really need the low to bomb. At least the cold air is there to tap, and there is plenty! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:45 PM, phlwx said: ^ you're referencing 850 0 line and not the surface freezing line, correct?...surface 0 line generally is 50 miles northwest of the 850 0. frz line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:45 PM, Analog96 said: That's why with this setup we would really need the low to bomb. At least the cold air is there to tap, and there is plenty! yea that clipper imho is messing things up to start. It parks itself up north and we get that continues southerly flow that warms the bl. Then it takes forever to get the cold back in. That may be the reason it gets going later the temp gradient is further north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:42 PM, tombo82685 said: hr 183 frz line on the coast sub 996 low about 200 miles east of cape may, lgt to mod precip se pa eastern pa nj del nyc, mod precip over se pa southern nj hr 186 frz line on coast, sub 992 about 100 miles south of the bm, lgt to mod precip se pa up the del riv east, mod precip central and northern nj in nyc and li hr 189 frz line on coast sub 988 low over bm, lgt to mod precip del river east mod precip over li and coastal central nj Thanks Tombo......sunds like a nice event... On 12/5/2010 at 4:43 PM, Analog96 said: Huh? The 0 line is down by ACY. Surface 0 line is west of Nyc from 174-180..........174 is def rain....180 we prob have slop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:47 PM, Allsnow said: Thanks Tombo......sunds like a nice event... Surface 0 line is west of Nyc from 174-180..........174 is def rain....180 we prob have slop I don't think it would be rain with a temp of 33-34 and 850 of -3. But what do I know? I only have a met degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:45 PM, Analog96 said: That's why with this setup we would really need the low to bomb. At least the cold air is there to tap, and there is plenty! Agreed. With the lack of a High to north/northwest we need an earlier bombing low to tap into the cold air to our north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:46 PM, tombo82685 said: frz line the 850 line is at the coast at 183, the surface line is running along 95. at 186 the surface line is generally along the NJ Turnpike SW of NYC and the 850 line has cleared the coast at 189 the surface line is generally at the Garden State Parkway from NY south at 192 the surface line is at the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:48 PM, Analog96 said: I don't think it would be rain with a temp of 33-34 and 850 of -3. But what do I know? I only have a met degree. its very close from hrs 174-180, the 925mb sounding has nyc and phl barely above the 0 line. It could be like a tenth or to, which would be a wet snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:49 PM, TKFJ said: Agreed. With the lack of a High to north/northwest we need an earlier bombing low to tap into the cold air to our north. It's not really the lack of a high. That sounds like you're saying there's no cold air available. If there wasn't much cold air available, in early Dec, the low could bomb all it wants and it wouldn't snow. What I'm talking about is the cold air isn't there BEFORE the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TKFJ Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:50 PM, Analog96 said: It's not really the lack of a high. That sounds like you're saying there's no cold air available. If there wasn't much cold air available, in early Dec, the low could bomb all it wants and it wouldn't snow. What I'm talking about is the cold air isn't there BEFORE the storm. Gotcha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:50 PM, tombo82685 said: its very close from hrs 174-180, the 925mb sounding has nyc and phl barely above the 0 line. It could be like a tenth or to, which would be a wet snow Stop tom.....you dont have a met degree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:49 PM, phlwx said: Check it again... the 850 line is at the coast at 183, the surface line is running along 95. at 186 the surface line is generally along the NJ Turnpike SW of NYC and the 850 line has cleared the coast at 189 the surface line is generally at the Garden State Parkway from NY south at 192 the surface line is at the coast. yea your right i got the 2 mixed up, but the surface is virtually ontop of the cities from hr 180 on, its the layers above that which i would like to see cause its showing a warm nose at 925, but this is all nonsense its 8 days out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEG NAO Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:49 PM, phlwx said: Check it again... the 850 line is at the coast at 183, the surface line is running along 95. at 186 the surface line is generally along the NJ Turnpike SW of NYC and the 850 line has cleared the coast at 189 the surface line is generally at the Garden State Parkway from NY south at 192 the surface line is at the coast. And at 180 hours out its impossible to determine the accuracy................ 25 -50 miles one way or the other and 1 - 3 degrees make all the difference.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:51 PM, Allsnow said: Stop tom.....you dont have a met degree dude, its 180 hrs out not really a big deal at this point in the game Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Feb Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:52 PM, tombo82685 said: yea your right i got the 2 mixed up, but the surface is virtually ontop of the cities from hr 180 on, its the layers above that which i would like to see cause its showing a warm nose at 925, but this is all nonsense its 8 days out Ding, ding, ding, we have a winner. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 its ptless, we all know the 12z euro is driving ths storm up to buffalo and we get svr storms to satisfy lee Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:52 PM, tombo82685 said: yea your right i got the 2 mixed up, but the surface is virtually ontop of the cities from hr 180 on, its the layers above that which i would like to see cause its showing a warm nose at 925, but this is all nonsense its 8 days out agreed...+ factoring in GFS historical SE bias has me less optimistic for the cities at this point. N & W (Allentown, Reading, Somerset county NJ) have a better shot. Lots depends on when the bombing sets up...too early = too close a track for snow, too late = minor event for everyone. On 12/5/2010 at 4:52 PM, NEG NAO said: And at 180 hours out its impossible to determine the accuracy................ 25 -50 miles one way or the other and 1 - 3 degrees make all the difference.... The storm could track through Cleveland for all we know...it's still a week out but my point was that this was a marginal event for the cities...I wouldn't get your hopes up, that's all... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:53 PM, tombo82685 said: its ptless, we all know the 12z euro is driving ths storm up to buffalo and we get svr storms to satisfy lee lol....March 2008? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looking more like your "typical" miller B this run, kind of like that euro run a few days ago that had it, lets see what it has today. Gonna be a looong week, but hopefully a fun week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Here. Soundings for EWR. http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=KEWR What precip type is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:55 PM, Analog96 said: Here. Soundings for EWR. http://wxweb.meteost...shtml?text=KEWR What precip type is that? Ooh...wrap-around moisture...... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It doesn't matter what the models show this far out, butt the pattern is not perfect because we are dealing with significant rain/snow issues. I just hope this isn't the case where it's cold before the storm, it rains during the storm, and gets very cold after the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Scott, Not just wrap-around. We're between 28 and 32 the entire time precip is falling. The entire column is AOB freezing. That is a snowstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:59 PM, Analog96 said: Scott, Not just wrap-around. We're between 28 and 32 the entire time precip is falling. The entire column is AOB freezing. That is a snowstorm. His questuion was for Nyc.....http://wxweb.meteostar.com/sample/sample.shtml?text=knyc Verbatim it looks like snow..... You have a SW wind direction in NYC from 174-180......early december i dont think that would be snow.....But whatever this obvisouly is a mute point as its 180 hrs out......Sorry for this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scotty Lightning Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 4:59 PM, Analog96 said: Scott, Not just wrap-around. We're between 28 and 32 the entire time precip is falling. The entire column is AOB freezing. That is a snowstorm. You don't think that there will be a warmer influence from the ocean/bay right there in Newark? I'd bank on some mixing there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 On 12/5/2010 at 5:05 PM, SD said: You don't think that there will be a warmer influence from the ocean/bay right there in Newark? I'd bank on some mixing there. With wind shifiting to NE as precip starts, absolutely not. I have lived here all my life. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
isnice Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 If the s/w was cut-off, the 500mb would look much like 96 no? Regardless, my gut tells me this is the one... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 5, 2010 Author Share Posted December 5, 2010 12z gem at hr 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 with the ggem it only goes out to hr 144 at 12z right? 993 mb low in Nebraska hmmm anyone care to analyze? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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