A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 feared cap winning out around here and westward when storms first went up in southern WI. Oh well. DGZ and defo band season just around the corner i wouldn't throw in the towel yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think one of the hi-res runs today (maybe the 12z 4km wrf) had a line from SE Wisconsin and a line from Western Illinois merging and exploding over the Chicago area. Yep it did. Only thing missing is the storms in western IL. Still time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Can see the cell north of me near Savanna now out the north window. Nice updraft. Looks like it should go. Tops near 35k ft now. Edit: BTW, dew is up to 82 here now. Sultry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I think we're about to see development from Dixon to Davenport soon. Cu field sharpening on vis and echoes starting to show up on DVN radar. Also, 23z RUC, which has a good handle on ongoing stuff, breaks good precip out in this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 70,000 top per Intellicast radar on that cell east of Kenosha. I'm thinking that Michiana is going to get a good wallop in an hr. or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yep it did. Only thing missing is the storms in western IL. Still time... minor details Still think it's going to go off though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Can see the updraft to the north building vertically just looking out the window. Definitely some quick vertical motion in that thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 minor details Still think it's going to go off though. Looks like things may be trying to start up out west. Maybe. Better "late" than never. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 the cell just ENE of Mount Carroll looks the best right now, went from nothing to nearly 50dbz aloft at 16kft in 2 scans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kevlon62 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Ended up no further north than the state line, as this stuff congealed and merged in a hurry. We got underneath the shelf cloud and then played tag with it south for fifteen miles or so. Nice little backroad excursion. Max winds maybe 40 mph. No hail. Decent rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 cell just went up just NE of Jainesville as well, window still open. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 40k ft now south of Mt. Carroll. Can see towers in the western sky now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 40k ft now south of Mt. Carroll. Can see towers in the western sky now here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yes, it looks like cells are starting to fire from Janesville sw to Clinton IA. There's still hope for much of northern IL. Meanwhile I await that powerful line to my nw over Lake Michigan moving se. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Unlike earlier there's lots of cumulus clouds all of the sudden. Definitely a good sign this area to the southwest will probably continue to fester and grow into something decent over the next hour or two. Tower to the north looks very nice now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 DGZ and defo band season just around the corner i would like a couple sub 980mb bombs tracking into the up of mich first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherbo Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Yes, it looks like cells are starting to fire from Janesville sw to Clinton IA. There's still hope for much of northern IL. Meanwhile I await that powerful line to my nw over Lake Michigan moving se. western edge of the lake MI line appears to be weakening to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 western edge of the lake MI line appears to be weakening to me. It looks like a total bust for everybody Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 western edge of the lake MI line appears to be weakening to me. Agreed. But NWS Northern IN radar shows a nice bow echo in the line aiming for Berrien county at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Decent radar returns beginning to develop just SW of Rockford. Looks like things could happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 tops near 50kft now northwest of Dixon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 make that 54kft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 It looks like a total bust for everybody Please stop! No need to even elaborate on the falsehood of that comment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Oh, to look out on Lake Michigan from the bluff at St. Joe! THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORTHERN INDIANA HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN CASS COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... BERRIEN COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST MICHIGAN... * UNTIL 930 PM EDT * AT 829 PM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DESTRUCTIVE WINDS IN EXCESS OF 70 MPH. THESE SEVERE STORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE EXTENDING FROM 16 MILES NORTHWEST OF ST. JOSEPH TO 15 MILES NORTHWEST OF STEVENSVILLE TO 21 MILES NORTHWEST OF SHOREWOOD-TOWER HILL...AND MOVING EAST AT 50 MPH. * LOCATIONS IN THE PATH OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS INCLUDE... ST. JOSEPH... LAKE MICHIGAN BEACH...STEVENSVILLE AND SHOREWOOD-TOWER HILL... COLOMA...PAW PAW LAKE AND BRIDGMAN... WATERVLIET... BUCHANAN AND BERRIEN SPRINGS... DOWAGIAC... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 I don't even think it's totally over for SE Wisconsin. Probably in terms of severe, but an area of showers/storms just north of MKE are here, and I can see the towering cumulus from that area. Also, Watertown still at 90/81 after the frontal passage (most likely). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 southern edge of the initial line crapped the bed, prob too far ahead of front and suffocated by the cap. new lines trying to get going back ahead of the front, lets see if it blows up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 You guys see the precip starting to break out ahead of the line in Berrien County MI? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
smoof Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 Please stop! No need to even elaborate on the falsehood of that comment. Please elaborate why that comment is false lol.. the 3 counties in extreme sw michigan might get a nice storm but I don't see anything else happening tonight other than an average or below tstorm.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 lots of lightning and thunder here all the sudden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILSNOW Posted August 3, 2011 Share Posted August 3, 2011 izzi update MESOSCALE DISCUSSION... 720 PM CDT NOTHING LIKE AN AFD TO CONVINCE STORMS TO NOT TAKE OFF...LINE OF STORMS OVER NE IL HAS BEEN WEAKENING WITH TIME. LATEST ACARS SOUNDINGS OUT OF ORD SHOW A NON-TRIVIAL CAP STILL PLACE...THOUGH THE BASE OF THE INVERSION HAS LIFTED SIGNIFICANTLY WHICH IS LIKELY AN INDICATION OF COOLING ALOFT DUE TO ASCENT. THE 00Z DVN SOUNDING HAS JUST COME IN AND SHOWS A VERY IMPRESSIVE MLCAPE VALUE OF 6500 J/KG OF CAP WITH ONLY 31 J/KG OF MLCINH. SO WHILE THE STRONGER LARGE SCALE ASCENT FROM WI SHORTWAVE APPEARS TO BE MOVING OUT...HOWEVER CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FRONT HAS BEEN ENOUGH TO ALLOW FOR TOWERING CBS TO BEGIN DEVELOPING OVER NW IL AND EVEN RE-NEWED DEVELOPMENT OVER SOUTHERN WI. GIVEN RECENT TRENDS IN RADAR AND VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY BECOMING INCREASINGLY CONCERNED ABOUT THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER NORTHWEST ILLINOIS ALONG THE FRONT...WHICH WOULD THEN PUSH EAST-SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA. ON A SIDE NOTE...THE MOISTURE POOLING ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS VERY IMPRESSIVE WITH TDS IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S OVER NW IL INTO EASTERN IOWA. WITH TEMPS STILL NEAR 90 WILL PROBABLY END UP HAVING TO EXTEND THE HEAT ADVISORY A FEW MORE HOURS FOR MUCH OF THE CWA. IZZI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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