Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 brief update from LOT, not terribly impressed. I'm sure Gino will do a mesoscale update this afternoon, he is lead tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm sure Gino will do a mesoscale update this afternoon, he is lead tonight. yeah i found this wording "A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME TSRA COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS" to be a little bit of a downplay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 yeah i found this wording "A SLIGHT CHANCE THAT SOME TSRA COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS" to be a little bit of a downplay. Yeah, I believe that is a downplay. Anyone from MKE to MSN down to the Quad Cities back e to Rockford and ORD seem to be in play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 If LOT is saying nothing doing until 03-07z, then that is 10 pm - 3 am. I thought it was supposed to be happening closer to the late afternoon, early evening hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Usually, when the wind picks up on a summer afternoon, dewpoints decrease at the sfc due to mixing. From 18z to 19z, they've gone up across ern IA, nrn IL, and srn WI. MSN: 74 to 76 MLI: 76 to 79 MKE: 75 to 77 IOW: 76 to 78 Dewpoint at Sterling-Rock Falls is 81. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 If LOT is saying nothing doing until 03-07z, then that is 10 pm - 3 am. I thought it was supposed to be happening closer to the late afternoon, early evening hours. 23-4z for the CWA sounds more reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Usually, when the wind picks up on a summer afternoon, dewpoints decrease at the sfc due to mixing. From 18z to 19z, they've gone up across ern IA, nrn IL, and srn WI. MSN: 74 to 76 MLI: 76 to 79 MKE: 75 to 77 IOW: 76 to 78 Dewpoint at Sterling-Rock Falls is 81. Add in an 81 at FEP, 82 at DKB, 82 at CWI, and an 80 here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 mesoscale analysis showing LIs around -12 near where initiation should take place in Iowa, when things go, growth should be explosive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There's a secondary low near Dubuque. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 New outlook is out. The took away the majority of the 5% tor from MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 23-4z for the CWA sounds more reasonable. That's what I initially thought from everything I was reading. Keeping an eye on everything Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Novice opinion, but I'd look to the Madison area for some development, if it occurs. The light showers in W Wisconsin might inhibit some of the areas further northwest of Madison from any big potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 First off, the SPC mesoanalysis for LCL heights is off, methinks. A 91/77 at Madison should not translate to an LCL of 2000m. I wouldn't be shocked if it's overestimating LCL heights across the board. I did a 19z sfc analysis. That warm front is in a perfect orientation and of perfect strength to enhance the tornado threat near it. 0-1km SRH is currently 150-200J/kg+. Once things go they will go fast and furiously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yep, RUC dewpoint analysis is too low. It's analyzing Tds of 74-76 in areas where they're generally 78-81. Never thought I'd say that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 First off, the SPC mesoanalysis for LCL heights is off, methinks. A 91/77 at Madison should not translate to an LCL of 2000m. I wouldn't be shocked if it's overestimating LCL heights across the board. I did a 19z sfc analysis. That warm front is in a perfect orientation and of perfect strength to enhance the tornado threat near it. 0-1km SRH is currently 150-200J/kg+. Once things go they will go fast and furiously. So when do you think they will start issuing watches? If they think it's a threat, they shouldn't wait until the storms have already fired. They usually issue them an hour or so before the threat begins. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 First off, the SPC mesoanalysis for LCL heights is off, methinks. A 91/77 at Madison should not translate to an LCL of 2000m. I wouldn't be shocked if it's overestimating LCL heights across the board. I did a 19z sfc analysis. That warm front is in a perfect orientation and of perfect strength to enhance the tornado threat near it. 0-1km SRH is currently 150-200J/kg+. Once things go they will go fast and furiously. Nice analysis, you did that pretty quick. I need to learn to do them faster by doing more of them! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yep. It is rare for the RUC progs to be less than observed values. Usually we have to trim. Waiting to see if I'll get a good t storm tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Thanks for that analysis tony, lot still not all that jacked with no mention of tor threat in afd....i think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 The window of opportunity is just about already over for me, I think. Area of light to moderate showers is approaching from the west and northwest. I don't know how storms are supposed to form in this environment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Current radar doesn't look all that great for Severe Wx in SEMI tonight...HRRR still gives some hope though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Indystorm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 700 mb temps of 14 and 13 across eastern IA and northern IL isn't helping either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 CINH is pretty much eroded in ern IA. I would think something's gotta go here soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
L.B. LaForce Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 20z Sounding for DTX Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Radar showing a band of rain moving SE from WI.... is that what the storms will grow out of or??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Radar showing a band of rain moving SE from WI.... is that what the storms will grow out of or??? When capping weakens. There's still a nice thermal ridge in the area. There will probably be development ahead of that activity and trailing down into E. Iowa. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 20z Sounding for DTX I'm not sure how to read these graphs.. Is this all that impressive? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 We might have the first troublemaker near Janesville. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 There is a storm a couple miles to my north that is producing frequent thunder, but obviously nowhere close to becoming severe, and it will be heading out over L Michigan momentarily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Already getting an appendage NW of Janesville. Storm is in an environment extremely conducive for tornadoes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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