baroclinic_instability Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 little map I put together quickly from ago.. Nice map...was just talking about this with my met friend from North Dakota. Unique radar signature and a uniquely developing surface low. Mega convergence and still a cap bust, but it was a neat event to follow. Glad I didn't bite on this event after busting the previous two events hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Soundings from ABR/BIS tonite. Quite telling. CAP bust for mixed layer parcels. Dry air entrainment bust...also caught well by the SPC mesoanalysis in the LCL-LFC RH values as well as the trapped waves in the lee of the Coteau des Plains late this afternoon owing to strong capping/subsidence behind the early day MCS. The presence of stable trapped waves instead of a growing CU field are usually not a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 5% tor and 30% wind for day 1. 0z 4km SPC WRF looked interesting southwest of where the main MCS rolls through (IA/WI/IL/IN). Hodo's still have an interesting look to them across IL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 30 wind/15 hail/5 tornado for the lower Great Lakes. Personally, I believe this could be a big day for someone around here. I will explain why shortly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 30 wind/15 hail/5 tornado for the lower Great Lakes. Personally, I believe this could be a big day for someone around here. I will explain why shortly. have to do with a possible lake breeze to play with? Haven't looked at hodographs off the new runs yet but the earlier ones def were curved and loopy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'll tell you this, the shear being shown on the 00z NAM/GFS has my attention significantly for Southern Lower Michigan and Northern IN/IL. The NAM has better shear but weaker instability, GFS slightly weaker shear especially in the lowest km but much better instability. Either way both look very good for this time of year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'll tell you this, the shear being shown on the 00z NAM/GFS has my attention significantly for Southern Lower Michigan and Northern IN/IL. Ya the low-level shear is pretty nice and is highest down in Tonyville by 0z tomorrow evening...0-1 SRH >150 m2/s2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Ya the low-level shear is pretty nice and is highest down in Tonyville by 0z tomorrow evening...0-1 SRH >150 m2/s2 Yeah, the thing that I am certainly watching is the warm front that basically lines up down I-75 through Michigan as this thing drops SE, you could be talking about some localized maximums in helicity not to mention the differential heating due to the boundary in the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'll tell you this, the shear being shown on the 00z NAM/GFS has my attention significantly for Southern Lower Michigan and Northern IN/IL. The NAM has better shear but weaker instability, GFS slightly weaker shear especially in the lowest km but much better instability. Either way both look very good for this time of year. Actually think instability might be underdone a bit in model land...the HRRR is showing dew points creeping up to 80 degrees by 18z tomorrow afternoon, coupled with temps in the mid 90's, its going to be more unstable then what the model is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Actually think instability might be underdone a bit in model land...the HRRR is showing dew points creeping up to 80 degrees by 18z tomorrow afternoon, coupled with temps in the mid 90's, its going to be more unstable then what the model is showing. Oh I don't disagree one bit, which is why if things hold pat as we go through the day I would not be shocked to see a Moderate risk out for wind, I am actually a bit surprised there isn't hatching with the 30% currently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I made a blog post outlining the potential threat/my worries. http://tornadicapocalypse.blogspot.com/2011/08/why-august-2nd-might-bring-trouble.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Oh I don't disagree one bit, which is why if things hold pat as we go through the day I would not be shocked to see a Moderate risk out for wind, I am actually a bit surprised there isn't hatching with the 30% currently. I expect we'll see a moderate risk as soon as the mesoscale players are placed tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I made a blog post outlining the potential threat/my worries. http://tornadicapoca...ng-trouble.html very nicely done and agree. Also, a nice bow in northern WI currently and will head near GRB if it maintains itself over the next few hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 can you say theta-e pooling on the boundary?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Everything looks to be coming into play for an action packed afternoon/evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Both the WRF-NMM and WRF-ARW look good this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
outflow Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Tons of cloud cover over most of michigan for most of the morning so i heating is going to be limited at best. I think the best shot at some sig. severe is going to be in wisconsin and ill. That could be screwed up too if the mcs moves se to quick. Messy forecast today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 very early MD for Eastern WI into NE Illinois THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH 716 CONTINUES. THE SEVERE THREAT WITH A LINE OF STORMS MOVING SSEWD THROUGH CNTRL AND WRN WI WILL LIKELY CONTINUE SEWD INTO SRN WI AND NRN IL THIS MORNING. WIND DAMAGE AND HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREATS. A NEW WW MAY NEED TO BE ISSUED SOUTH OF WW 716. A LINE OF STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS ONGOING ON THE NRN END OF AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDING NWD FROM CHICAGO TO DULUTH. THE LINEAR MCS SHOULD MOVE DOWN THE INSTABILITY AXIS AND MAINTAIN A BOWING STRUCTURE AIDED BY A WELL-DEFINED 45 TO 55 KT 700 MB JET LOCATED JUST BEHIND THE LEADING EDGE OF THE MCS. THIS FEATURE IS HELPING TO CREATE MODERATE DEEP LAYER WHICH SHOULD KEEP THE MCS ORGANIZED THROUGH MID-MORNING. A FORWARD SPEED OF 4O TO 50 KT ALONG WITH A UNIDIRECTIONAL WIND PROFILE ABOVE 1 KM EVIDENT ON THE MILWAUKEE WSR-88D VWP SHOULD SUPPORT A CONTINUED WIND DAMAGE THREAT. HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH THE MORE INTENSE CELLS EMBEDDED WITHIN THE LINE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 New D1 with massive 30% wind probs and frankly i think they could be higher for areas around the southern tip of Lake Michigan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm worried the MCS in N Wisconsin will head close enough to SE Wisconsin to give us ample cloud cover yet just miss us, as we've seen happen several times, ultimately hurting us now as well as later. Even if we get this MCS, it will definitely hurt us later. If only this MCS would be moving through earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I made a blog post outlining the potential threat/my worries. http://tornadicapoca...ng-trouble.html Great write up. Nicely done. I was wondering what the severe threat was going to be like for today. Thanks for spelling it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yeah, the more I watch it no way that MCS will make it into S Wisconsin and N Illinois, which is a good thing for later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Yeah, the more I watch it no way that MCS will make it into S Wisconsin and N Illinois, which is a good thing for later on. Watch where the outflow boundary ends up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Watch where the outflow boundary ends up. It will be a congrats Alek, I know it! We're too close to the current convection. It will just be like that May day when an OFB came through from storms to the north and stabilized the atmosphere here, but areas south and west were still all systems go. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 It will be a congrats Alek, I know it! We're too close to the current convection. It will just be like that May day when an OFB came through from storms to the north and stabilized the atmosphere here, but areas south and west were still all systems go. My best guess is that initiation takes off from MKE southwest towards RFD, possibly back as far west as the QC area. IMO northeast Illinois including Chicago is almost a lock for an intense line this evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 My best guess is that initiation takes off from MKE southwest towards RFD, possibly back as far west as the QC area. IMO northeast Illinois including Chicago is almost a lock for an intense line this evening. pretty much have been my thoughts for the last day or so, prob will see intiation back west to ALO, maybe even DSM, depending on speed/exact orientation of the front at the time it fires. early look at what the HRRR is doing.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 few things...The NAM has a major QPF bullseye over north-central/northeast IL from a big time MCS and PWATS are going to be sky high.. The 12z RUC is quite bullish on low-level shear in the area and almost has due south winds in spots at 0z ahead of the convection...0-3 SRH is >400 m2/s2 at this time over northeast IL.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Been cloudy here all morning so far. I hope the current convection north of here gets a move on so we have the maximum possible sunshine to destabilize. The backup RUC has storms developing just north and west of here, while the HRRR has them developing over or just south and east of here. Looks like it will be close. If any of those initial cells start off discrete, could get slightly hairy around here as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Btw, I'm seeing an OFB from near Portage westward to just north of Prairie du Chien. If so, we in SE Wisconsin might not have an OFB ruin our instability. I think the dewpoint in the 50s in Juneau is an indication of that OFB. Edit: looks like the DP and temp just corrected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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