Jim Martin Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe T-Storm Watch for northern 1/2 of Ohio and the West Virginia panhandle until 9pm edt. Hazards are 2 inch hail and 70mph wind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Severe T-Storm Watch for northern 1/2 of Ohio and the West Virginia panhandle until 9pm edt. Hazards are 2 inch hail and 70mph wind. Looks like the storms west of Adrian will be our best shot. Along with the 30% risk tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Martin Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Appsrunner... take a look at this... DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1213 PM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 VALID 021200Z - 031200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE GREAT LAKES REGION AND UPPER OH VALLEY... ..GREAT LAKES INTO UPPER OH VALLEY AN EXPANSIVE UPPER RIDGE WILL MAINTAIN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES ON TUESDAY...WHILE SEVERAL WEAKER DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THE RIDGE FROM THE ROCKIES ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INTO THE NORTHEAST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A DISTINCT MID/UPPER LEVEL VORT MAX OVER WESTERN WY. THIS FEATURE WILL BE MOVING INTO MN BY 02/12Z...AND IS FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES REGION THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY BE ONGOING AHEAD OF THIS FEATURE OVER MN/WI/UPPER MI TOMORROW MORNING. STRONG HEATING AND DEWPOINTS IN THE UPPER 60S/LOWER 70S AHEAD OF THE STORMS WILL PROMOTE INTENSIFICATION BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS STORMS TRACK INTO LOWER MI. CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Whoops, got beat to it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 new warning out for the west end of the twin cities. hennipin and carver counties, severe t-storm warning for gusts 60+. and this includes minny, the mall of america, and nws-chanhassen. WUUS53 KMPX 011745 SVRMPX MNC019-053-011830- /O.NEW.KMPX.SV.W.0214.110801T1745Z-110801T1830Z/ BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 1245 PM CDT MON AUG 1 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN THE TWIN CITIES HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... NORTHEASTERN CARVER COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... HENNEPIN COUNTY IN EAST CENTRAL MINNESOTA... * UNTIL 130 PM CDT * AT 1244 PM CDT...RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM...CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR INDEPENDENCE...OR ABOUT 13 MILES SOUTHEAST OF BUFFALO...AND MOVING EAST AT 35 MPH. PENNY SIZE HAIL MAY ALSO ACCOMPANY THESE DAMAGING WINDS. LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE... PLYMOUTH... MINNEAPOLIS... ST BONIFACIUS... INDEPENDENCE... MINNETRISTA... MAPLE PLAIN... LORETTO... MOUND... VICTORIA... ORONO... MEDINA... HAMEL... LONG LAKE... SHOREWOOD... CHANHASSEN... PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...PREPARE IMMEDIATELY FOR DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH AND HAIL. SEEK SHELTER NOW INSIDE A STURDY STRUCTURE AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE TORNADOES WITH LITTLE OR NO ADVANCE WARNING. PREPARE TO MOVE TO A PLACE OF SAFETY IN A STURDY STRUCTURE SUCH AS A BASEMENT OR SMALL INTERIOR ROOM IF A TORNADO IS SPOTTED. && LAT...LON 4503 9321 4484 9322 4482 9348 4488 9381 4498 9378 4498 9377 4500 9377 4505 9376 4512 9372 4512 9370 TIME...MOT...LOC 1745Z 280DEG 29KT 4502 9372 WIND...HAIL 60MPH 0.75IN Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Appsrunner... take a look at this... CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. First week of August seems to always be good for severe weather in OH. 2 days of severe storms is pretty rare around here. Tomorrow could be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storm just north of Bradner, OH has a nice hook echo and a couplet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storm just north of Bradner, OH has a nice hook echo and a couplet. I think it had lifted by the time I got over there but I definitely could see some rotation in the cell Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 interesting characteristics with this storm that moved thru from minny thru my end of st paul (near 35 and md). we've had winds go originally from west to south, then back to west, and i think even a northwards turn currently. no hail. but gusts may have come close to severe (boy do i need to go to spotter training next year). but the winds were hard enough at times to cause the following: cars and a full-sized van parked perpendicular to the winds, and the raindrops actually blew over the vehicles like they were going over at an f1 of GT car during a wet race. anyone know how fast the winds have to be to cause that, on a micro-scale level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Appsrunner... take a look at this... CURRENT PATTERN SUGGESTS THE POTENTIAL FOR A LONG-LIVED SEVERE MCS TRACKING INTO NORTHERN OH AND WESTERN PA DURING THE EVENING. DAMAGING WINDS APPEAR TO BE THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS. AN UPGRADE TO MODERATE RISK IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION AS THE EVENT GETS CLOSER AND DETAILS BECOME MORE CLEAR. Yeah I did see that earlier... should be interesting. I'll be in Findlay during the afternoon tomorrow. I think it had lifted by the time I got over there but I definitely could see some rotation in the cell I was also chasing as well... not much rotation but definitely had some broad rotation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 So this just meandered by the front door about 15 minutes ago. Complete with Kelvin Helmholtz waves. Radar shows nada. Apparently this is the year to just sit in my yard and watch what goes by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 So this just meandered by the front door about 15 minutes ago. Complete with Kelvin Helmholtz waves. Radar shows nada. Apparently this is the year to just sit in my yard and watch what goes by... Wow. Where are you exactly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Very nice. The easiest way to chase, sitting in your lawn chair. So this just meandered by the front door about 15 minutes ago. Complete with Kelvin Helmholtz waves. Radar shows nada. Apparently this is the year to just sit in my yard and watch what goes by... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Wow. Where are you exactly? north metro. Anoka area. If you looked at radar you would see absolutely nothing. It's right overhead right now so I can see nothing visually, but guys from further south are telling me it still looks something like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 this is a look from about 20 mins ago from the north end of st paul. the first pic looking N, the 2nd looking NE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 nice pics guys Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jim Marusak Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 So this just meandered by the front door about 15 minutes ago. Complete with Kelvin Helmholtz waves. Radar shows nada. Apparently this is the year to just sit in my yard and watch what goes by... you have this photo on a place like facebook, flickr, picassa, or anyplace like that? i'd like to share that one with my friends, but be sure to give you the proper credit.. cause that's a very neat photo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Please post the pics on the NWS Twin Cities FB page too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
trapperman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Please post the pics on the NWS Twin Cities FB page too. Lenticular clouds or an elevated sup with a nice base? You guys be the judge. https://www.facebook...hp?id=509910511 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 some insane parameters right now in the northern plains but lack of strong upper support and warm mid-level temps is keeping things from going right now and I think that should win out. a pretty cool radar loop out of ABR right now if you have a higher res radar, can see the sfc low spin as well as both the warm front and cold front. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 some insane parameters right now in the northern plains but lack of strong upper support and warm mid-level temps is keeping things from going right now and I think that should win out. Great news for tomorrow, but the upper level support should improve as time progresses. So I still think we'll see some activity develop with time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SEMIweather Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Great news for tomorrow, but the upper level support should improve as time progresses. So I still think we'll see some activity develop with time. DTX thinks tonight's stuff stays to the north; that could make tomorrow afternoon very interesting with the amount of helicity forecasted for tomorrow. AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DETROIT/PONTIAC MI 658 PM EDT MON AUG 1 2011 .AVIATION... //DISCUSSION... EXPECT PREVAILING LIGHT WINDS AND EPISODIC HIGH CLOUDS THROUGH THE NIGHT AND FOR THE FIRST HALF OF TUESDAY. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY AS A WARM FRONT TRAVERSES THE SOUTHERN LAKES REGION. MEANWHILE...THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN UPSTREAM ACROSS WISCONSIN AND EVEN NORTHERN LOWER MICHIGAN TUESDAY MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. INDICATIONS ARE THAT CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE FAVORABLE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS SOUTHEAST MICHIGAN FROM MID-AFTERNOON ON INTO THE EVENING...AS MOISTURE QUALITY/DEPTH AND INSTABILITY INCREASE APPRECIABLY. FORECAST WILL INTRODUCE A SIMPLIFIED APPROACH BY ADVERTISING CB GROUPS AT THE TERMINALS. //DTW THRESHOLD THREATS... * MODERATE CONFIDENCE FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LATE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY EVENING WITH LOWER CONFIDENCE ON TIMING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 little map I put together quickly from ago.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 little map I put together quickly from ago.. Pretty impressive parameters out there this evening, Super cell composite of 66 in west central MN. Cap should start to/is eroding now out in the dakotas now. Should see development in the next couple hours possibly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 DTX thinks tonight's stuff stays to the north; that could make tomorrow afternoon very interesting with the amount of helicity forecasted for tomorrow. The hodograph forecasted for tomorrow (while not 100% perfect) is still long and curved too. If anything the current runs are getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RobertSul Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm kinda new to following severe weather, but it looks like the instability for tomorrow is so-so according to the NAM, and a little better on the GFS. Are these models just not very good at forecasting instability, or am I missing something? The hodograph forecasted for tomorrow (while not 100% perfect) is still long and curved too. If anything the current runs are getting better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 I'm kinda new to following severe weather, but it looks like the instability for tomorrow is so-so according to the NAM, and a little better on the GFS. Are these models just not very good at forecasting instability, or am I missing something? I wouldn't worry too much about the model-forecasted instability. For one the current forecasted instbaility progs is assuming temps sitting in the mid-upper 70s all day. Also, the worst of the storms (that is, the most concentrated activity) should be focused along the instability gradient versus directly under the heart of the instability. Meanwhile, I just did a bit more investigating and Detroit City Airport has a perfect hodograph for Tuesday evening. Well it's not perfect, but it's about as good as you get for this time of year in this region. http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kab2791 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Nice hodo, with a very high SRH value. Although damaging winds should remain the biggest threat per SPC and DTX, as GRR discussed, there is the possibility of tornadoes embedded in a line of severe storms, especially with that veering wind profile. I wouldn't worry too much about the model-forecasted instability. For one the current forecasted instbaility progs is assuming temps sitting in the mid-upper 70s all day. Also, the worst of the storms (that is, teh most concentrated activity) should be focused along the instability gradient versus directly under the heart of the instability. Meanwhile, I just did a bit more investigating and Detroit City Airport has a perfect hodograph for Tuesday evening. Well it's not perfect, but it's about as good as you get for this time of year in this region. http://beta.wxcaster...&STATIONID=KDET Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Pretty impressive parameters out there this evening, Super cell composite of 66 in west central MN. Cap should start to/is eroding now out in the dakotas now. Should see development in the next couple hours possibly. nothing will develop where the best parameters are....H5 winds of 10kts ain't gonna cut it and its capped, look at vis. If anything does develop there later it will be elevated. The threat of any good sfc based supercells developing is slim to none, more like none. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ksstormhunter Posted August 2, 2011 Share Posted August 2, 2011 Just pushed out my forecast for the KABR, KMBG, and KBIS areas, just seeing marginal condition with potential for isolated wind gusts up to 55kts. Data uploaded http://smartwxmodel.net/KABR.pdf , http://smartwxmodel.net/KMBG.pdf , http://smartwxmodel.net/KBIS.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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