Powerball Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Two words: Ongoing Convection I doubt ongoing convection has much of an impact this time around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 The expanded death ridge (at least for this year) funneling all of that hot air (and therefore, warm mid level temps and stronger capping) has likely played a major role in preventing larger scale convective events. However, once late summer/fall comes around and we start getting cold pockets from Canada sinking southward... Edit: Tor Watch just issued for ND/SD... All you've done here is state summertime climo. If it weren't for this fact, summer would probably have far more tornadoes than spring. But it doesn't. This summer has been quite active on the whole. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 True enough, but you have to admit that the ridge has been stronger than usual this year. I was speaking more for wisconsinwx's situation/location. I guess i should have been more specific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 True enough, but you have to admit that the ridge has been stronger than usual this year. I was speaking more for wisconsinwx's situation/location. I guess i should have been more specific. Yeah no need for you to have to explain yourself. I understood what you were saying. This year in particular it seems like the severe weather hot spots shifted from about 100-200 miles south of me in the spring to 100-200 miles north of me in the summer. Therefore, we have rarely been in a hot spot like the Dakotas, Minnesota, and the northern half of Wisconsin have for the last month or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 00z NAM skew-t and hodograph tomorrow evening from Bemidji, MN. It also appears that he cap may weaken across this area tomorrow evening. Morning convection may hamper this somewhat, but, still, that hodo is pretty darn impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 DTX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 00z NAM skew-t and hodograph tomorrow evening from Bemidji, MN. It also appears that he cap may weaken across this area tomorrow evening. Morning convection may hamper this somewhat, but, still, that hodo is pretty darn impressive. I'd be extremely wary of using that forecast sounding. It's clearly convectively contaminated based off of the SKEW-T, and that might be playing tricks with the hodo too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yeah no need for you to have to explain yourself. I understood what you were saying. This year in particular it seems like the severe weather hot spots shifted from about 100-200 miles south of me in the spring to 100-200 miles north of me in the summer. Therefore, we have rarely been in a hot spot like the Dakotas, Minnesota, and the northern half of Wisconsin have for the last month or two. Same boat here, North Dakota, northern MN and the northern parts of Wisconsin have been the hot spot for the month of July. We kinda got skipped in my regional area severe weather wise. I'm not able to chase extreme distance anymore due to my working situation..so I live for the chases that are within 200 miles or so from Mankato this summer. But that has virtually been non existent this year haha. Funny note is 2006 was somewhat like this..then August we had a few good regional tornado outbreaks, Including the F3 I caught in south central MN, which is in my avatar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Funny note is 2006 was somewhat like this..then August we had a few good regional tornado outbreaks, Including the F3 I caught in south central MN, which is in my avatar. Yeah, August 24th was a significant outbreak if I recall correctly... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Same boat here, North Dakota, northern MN and the northern parts of Wisconsin have been the hot spot for the month of July. We kinda got skipped in my regional area severe weather wise. I'm not able to chase extreme distance anymore due to my working situation..so I live for the chases that are within 200 miles or so from Mankato this summer. But that has virtually been non existent this year haha. Funny note is 2006 was somewhat like this..then August we had a few good regional tornado outbreaks, Including the F3 I caught in south central MN, which is in my avatar. August 2006 was a hell of a month for severe weather from you guys down to this area. I still remember 8/24/06. Nasty outbreak for August. There was another F3 in Watonwan County MN near the beginning of the month too. Wasn't that like 8/2ish? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 August 2006 was a hell of a month for severe weather from you guys down to this area. I still remember 8/24/06. Nasty outbreak for August. There was another F3 in Watonwan County MN near the beginning of the month too. Wasn't that like 8/2ish? It was 8/1, with the Warroad F3 on 8/5. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 On another note, that powerful cell/mini-bow in ND has 100 mph wind advisories in the warning. BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND 1100 PM CDT SUN JUL 31 2011 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BISMARCK HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... BURLEIGH COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... EXTREME NORTHWESTERN EMMONS COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... WEST CENTRAL KIDDER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... EASTERN MORTON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTHEASTERN OLIVER COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... SOUTH CENTRAL SHERIDAN COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA... * UNTIL MIDNIGHT CDT * AT 1057 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING EXTREME DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 100 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED 7 MILES NORTHWEST OF MENOKEN...OR 7 MILES NORTHEAST OF BISMARCK...AND MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... WING AROUND 1135 PM CDT. ARENA AROUND 1145 PM CDT. TUTTLE AROUND 1155 PM CDT. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IF YOU ARE IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM...TAKE SHELTER IN A STURDY BUILDING...AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS. && A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 100 AM CDT MONDAY MORNING FOR SOUTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Mandan... KY19 010355Z AUTO 24040G53KT 1/2SM +TSRA OVC003 21/21 A2990 RMK AO2 P0034 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radtechwxman Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 the insane mega storm in ND with 100mph is unreal. already been confirmed reports of 90+mph winds. the storm doesnt seem to have much of a bow shape. with the highly favorable environment for supercells there, i am wondering if this is an elevated HP supercell with major RFD winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Yeah, August 24th was a significant outbreak if I recall correctly... It was, by far the best tornado I have witnessed with multiple vortexes. Not trying change the subject here but here is another picture from that tornado I took. Horrible quality..It was actually my 18th birthday that day. Can't beat tornadoes on your birthday! There was some weaker tornadoes in Watonwan county earlier that month is correct on August 1st I missed those but caught a weak funnel near Lewisville, but the F3 was way up north in Warrod area. Good memory my friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 It was, by far the best tornado I have witnessed with multiple vortexes. Not trying change the subject here but here is another picture from that tornado I took. Horrible quality..It was actually my 18th birthday that day. Can't beat tornadoes on your birthday! There was some weaker tornadoes in Watonwan county earlier that month is correct on August 1st I missed those but caught a weak funnel near Lewisville, but the F3 was way up north in Warrod area. Good memory my friend! Would that be the Kasota/Nicollet tornado? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tornadotony Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 KBIS 010412Z AUTO 24041G59KT 1/2SM R31/1800VP6000FT +TSRA FG FEW011 BKN018 OVC090 21/20 A2995 RMK AO2 PK WND 25059/0409 WSHFT 0350 LTG DSNT ALQDS P0043 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 90kts at 400ft...ouch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Would that be the Kasota/Nicollet tornado? Yes, my pictures were near the Nicollet area..After it crossed through the river valley and became rain wrapped we could never catch up with it due to poor options crossing the MN river. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 this was the 3:34z scan...106kts at just over 1000kft Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 10% tornado probs in new day 1... DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1259 AM CDT MON AUG 01 2011 VALID 011200Z - 021200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE DAKOTAS TO THE UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... ...DAKOTAS/UPPER MIDWEST/UPPER MS RIVER VALLEY... INITIALLY...A MCS IS EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING THIS MORNING IN VICINITY OF FAR EASTERN ND/NORTHERN MN. WITH ANY EARLY DAY ISOLATED SEVERE THREAT EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WANE THROUGH THE MORNING...A STRONG ELEVATED MIXED LAYER /EML/ SHOULD OTHERWISE CAP THE WARM/MOIST SECTOR FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ALBERTA/SASKATCHEWAN/MANITOBA THROUGH TONIGHT...WHILE SEVERAL LOW AMPLITUDE DISTURBANCES OVER THE ROCKIES /ROUNDING THE UPPER SOUTHERN TIER UPPER RIDGE/ GRADUALLY COME INTO PHASE WITH THE STRONGER WESTERLIES ON THE SOUTHERN FRINGE OF THE WESTERN CANADA SYSTEM. AS THIS OCCURS...A SURFACE LOW/ASSOCIATED SURFACE TROUGH WILL SHIFT EASTWARD ACROSS THE DAKOTAS...PRIOR TO EVENTUALLY BEING OVERTAKEN BY A SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING COLD FRONT LATER THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM FRONT /AUGMENTED BY EARLY DAY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW/ WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE EASTERN DAKOTAS/UPPER MS VALLEY...WITH A VERY MOIST /LOWER AND PERHAPS SOME MIDDLE 70S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS/ AND STRONGLY UNSTABLE AIRMASS ALONG/SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT BY THIS AFTERNOON. AS HEIGHT FALLS/COOLING ALOFT BEGINS TO GRAZE THE DAKOTAS...INITIAL SURFACE BASED DEEP CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT CAN BE EXPECTED BY LATE AFTERNOON IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TRIPLE POINT...WHICH WILL LIKELY INITIALLY BE FOCUSED ACROSS EAST-CENTRAL ND. THESE INITIAL/ANY SUSTAINED STORMS WILL LIKELY BE SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL AND POTENTIALLY A FEW TORNADOES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN ND/NORTHWEST MN LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ASIDE FROM AMPLE MOISTURE/INSTABILITY...TORNADO POTENTIAL IS SUPPORTED BY VEERING WIND PROFILES/MODESTLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS WITH 0-1 KM SRH OF 150-200 M2/S2 ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT AND/OR POTENTIAL OUTFLOW BOUNDARY. AIDED BY RELATIVELY STRONG LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR ASCENT/SUSTAINED HEIGHT FALLS TONIGHT AND A NOCTURNALLY INTENSIFYING LOW LEVEL JET...IT SEEMS LIKELY THAT UPSCALE QUASI-LINEAR GROWTH WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH A POST-SUNSET HEIGHTENED POTENTIAL FOR WIND DAMAGE VIA A EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING/FORWARD PROPAGATING MCS ACROSS NORTHERN/CENTRAL MN AND POTENTIALLY WI/UPPER MI. ...NORTHEAST STATES/NEW ENGLAND... EASTERN CANADIAN UPPER TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER QUEBEC/EASTERN ONTARIO TOWARD NEW ENGLAND/NORTHEAST STATES THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH ASSOCIATED COOLING/STRENGTHENING CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES. WITH RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES/SUFFICIENT CAPE BY AFTERNOON...MULTIPLE SOUTHEASTWARD-MOVING BANDS OF STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS SHOULD DEVELOP/INCREASE THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SUCH DEVELOPMENT FOCUSED IN VICINITY OF A SURFACE TROUGH ACROSS NEW ENGLAND/NEAR THE EASTERN SEABOARD AND/OR ALONG ONE OR MORE SOUTHEASTWARD MOVING WEAK COLD FRONTS ACROSS THE NORTHEAST/NEW ENGLAND. SUSTAINED MULTICELLS ALONG WITH A FEW SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED...WITH DAMAGING WINDS/SEVERE HAIL AS THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. ...SOUTHEAST STATES/GULF COAST REGION... ALONG/SOUTH OF A SLOW MOVING FRONT ACROSS THE REGION...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH A HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT AIRMASS WILL YIELD ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG/SEVERE TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. DOWNBURSTS CAPABLE OF LOCALIZED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE THE PRIMARY CONCERN. ...WESTERN CONUS... BETWEEN THE SOUTH-CENTRAL CONUS CENTERED UPPER RIDGE AND MODEST CYCLONIC WEST-SOUTHWESTERLIES OVER THE WESTERN STATES...POCKETS OF STRONGER HEATING COMBINED WITH A BROAD CORRIDOR OF RELATIVELY HIGH PW VALUES WILL SUPPORT SOME STRONGER STORMS CAPABLE OF ISOLATED DOWNBURSTS/PERHAPS SOME HAIL THIS AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. ..GUYER/ROGERS.. 08/01/2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David Reimer Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 10% tornado probs in new day 1... FYI When posting graphics it's better to upload them, as these are dynamic links that change with each subsequent outlook update. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Alright, modified. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 I'm currently watching an incredible lightning show to my east with continuous flashing encompassing a huge swath of the horizon. Just checked radar, the storm is near Batavia New York, 95-100 miles east of here. There was one particularly interesting lightning about five minutes ago. It looked like a large glowing orange ball farther up in the horizon that flashed into view and seemingly sank below the tree line after a couple of seconds. Just that -- a large glowing ball of light that sank through the storm. Amazing! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 30% probs for much of Michigan on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 15% probs for most of N IL for tomorrow. Temps for the Wed-Sat time frame show some promise....Hopefully it stays that way.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 0-3km EHI's tomorrow and the hodograph for IKK off the 12z NAM for 21z tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Looks like a hole beginning to develop in the cloud cover behind the MCS in Eastern ND.... Cmich I hope you're out today... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHweather Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Just a fantastic sky on the western edge of this hailer southeast of Cleveland. The sky goes from black to almost nothing, raser sharp edge. There is a a good amount of low level scud too, it's just stunning. Was driving and caught the western edge, outflow winds of 45-50MPH were downing small limbs as I drove. Also hit some small hail briefly, although my friend who works at a water park just a few miles east says there was significant hail that broke windows there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NEOH Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Just a fantastic sky on the western edge of this hailer southeast of Cleveland. The sky goes from black to almost nothing, raser sharp edge. There is a a good amount of low level scud too, it's just stunning. Was driving and caught the western edge, outflow winds of 45-50MPH were downing small limbs as I drove. Also hit some small hail briefly, although my friend who works at a water park just a few miles east says there was significant hail that broke windows there. It was an awesome storm here in Chagrin.... although there are probably a lot of dented cars from the hail. Lots of flooded roads as well. Your right about the sky... there was such a clear distinction to the storm vs. blue skies. More storms forming now in the same places that had storms this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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