Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Starting a new severe thread for August after reading SPC's Monday-Wednesday Day 4-8 outlook this morning: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/exper/day4-8/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Yeah, SPC hinting that this could be potentially significant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 We will have to see...depending on how far N that wave tracks will make quite a big difference...could end up being Canada's severe event. That said, definitely a huge pool of instability under the ridge across the northern plains... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 If Derek is around, you might want to consider a potential chase early next week. Still early, but some of the models are looking fairly favorable for some significant activity in southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and North Dakota. Depending on how far the trough/cold front sinks, it could be a lot further south than that as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If Derek is around, you might want to consider a potential chase early next week. Still early, but some of the models are looking fairly favorable for some significant activity in southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and North Dakota. Depending on how far the trough/cold front sinks, it could be a lot further south than that as well. I'm definitely keeping an eye on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 If Derek is around, you might want to consider a potential chase early next week. Still early, but some of the models are looking fairly favorable for some significant activity in southern Saskatchewan/Manitoba and North Dakota. Depending on how far the trough/cold front sinks, it could be a lot further south than that as well. Doubtful that it comes well S. Even the EC dream run from a few days ago where the southern periphery of the bomb wave it was producing was just along/N of the border. Given the strength of the subtropical ridge progged to be in place, farther N is likely. Global guidance still waffling about, but all guidance more or less takes much of synoptic forcing for ascent well into Manitoba...latest EC deepens the low just a tick S of the Hudson Bay with the baroclinic surface trof extending into the US. A number of globals are hinting at a mountain induced wave disturbance ejecting on the western periphery of the subtropical ridge ahead/in line with the main Canadian wave with extensive overnight WAA induced DMC the previous nite extending into the day Monday with the other scenario being extensive low level cloud cover and/or early developing elevated convection. Looks like another messy convective event similar to the past couple. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Is the death ridge possibly making a return? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted July 28, 2011 Share Posted July 28, 2011 Is the death ridge possibly making a return? I wouldn't say it is making a return...it is just solidifying its usual dominance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted July 29, 2011 Share Posted July 29, 2011 I wouldn't say it is making a return...it is just solidifying its usual dominance. More heat and humidity? Great.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tim from Springfield (IL) Posted July 30, 2011 Author Share Posted July 30, 2011 SPC Day 3 for Monday: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 the hodographs look quite ominous off the 0z NAM for southeast ND/northeast SD monday evening....and they only get more curved and loopy after a strong LLJ kicks in after 0z...alot of instablility and moisture along with decent mid-level flow. But this is if the cap can break.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 This is for GWR in southeast ND monday evening at 3z...the hodo is still great at 0z as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 the hodographs look quite ominous off the 0z NAM for southeast ND/northeast SD monday evening....and they only get more curved and loopy after a strong LLJ kicks in after 0z...alot of instablility and moisture along with decent mid-level flow. But this is if the cap can break.. Giant "if" as per usual this summer, but yeah that looks just plain nasty with those very nicely veered winds... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Cmich this is right in your wheelhouse here... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I'm trying to decide if tomorrow or Monday has the best tor potential. Realistically I can only chase one of the days I need to get thesis stuff done. I'm really liking Monday and the hodo's but the cap could be a problem and tomorrow seems like i'll have to head down 94 to catch init. around Jamestown or so. Either way ND looks primed for a 2 day outbreak as long as that cap breaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cmichweather Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 I'm thinking tomorrow might be a Bismark day with decent potential and i'm gonna have to sit around and wait til Monday and hope outflow and debris isn't a problem. Things might be a bit too far west tomorrow so I think i'll sit and wait and hope things aren't messy overnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Derek30 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Would the supercell threat extend into southern Manitoba tomorrow? Looks like the dynamics are south of the border again.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Would the supercell threat extend into southern Manitoba tomorrow? Looks like the dynamics are south of the border again.. Yeah, looking like this is gonna be another miss for the Canadian Prairies... However, today's threat in the Dakotas is looking interesting, with extreme instability (ridiculous RUC CAPE forecast), weakening of the cap and some serious EHI values in Central/Southern ND and Northern SD. Sort of reminds me of the July 17th event, with perhaps a more widespread potential. Any storm that can form and break the cap is liable to potentially explode in the environment that is in place there. I would like to see stronger vertical/bulk shear, however, and more enlargement of the hodographs... Also, nice hole in the cloud cover across the warm sector in ND/SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Also, nice hole in the cloud cover across the warm sector in ND/SD... I would say its quite the hole and most of SD is in the warm sector now as the warm front continues to lift northward and a cu field going up in southwest SD over the black hills although the better 0-6km shear is further north. The best enviroment is west of ABR but its under the influence of the ridging and with H7 temps pushing 15 degrees C Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 From Bismarck and Jamestown south to Mobridge and Aberdeen looks pretty primed for explosive development if anything can get going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mnchaser Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 From Bismarck and Jamestown south to Mobridge and Aberdeen looks pretty primed for explosive development if anything can get going. Going to be hard with 700mb temps near 15°C though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Going to be hard with 700mb temps near 15°C though! Exactly. Cap/warm mid-level temps destroying once again. However, storms have developed north of the Black Hills... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Seems like nowadays we need a perfect setup to even get strong thunderstorms around these parts. I remember years where we would get decent severe weather on a weekly basis, like 2004 and 2008. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The expanded death ridge (at least for this year) funneling all of that hot air (and therefore, warm mid level temps and stronger capping) has likely played a major role in preventing larger scale convective events in the Upper MS Valley. However, once late summer/fall comes around and we start getting cold pockets from Canada sinking southward... Edit: Tor Watch just issued for ND/SD... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Couple of severe warnings in C Wisconsin, hopefully they can keep their intensity up for another hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 The expanded death ridge (at least for this year) funneling all of that hot air (and therefore, warm mid level temps and stronger capping) has likely played a major role in preventing larger scale convective events. Even then things the severe weather activity on a large scale basis has been pretty good this summer. I've seen *FAR* worse severe weather seasons. Tuesday also has the potential to be a widepsread severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes. To have that hype of helicity (200-400m2-s2) mix in with the instability expected spells trouble. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted July 31, 2011 Share Posted July 31, 2011 Even then things the severe weather activity on a large scale basis has been pretty good this summer. I've seen *FAR* worse severe weather seasons. Tuesday also has the potential to be a widepsread severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes. To have that hype of helicity (200-400m2-s2) mix in with the instability expected spells trouble. We'll see. It won't take too much to satisfy me at this point. I just want to see storms survive their trek to MKE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Even then things the severe weather activity on a large scale basis has been pretty good this summer. I've seen *FAR* worse severe weather seasons. Tuesday also has the potential to be a widepsread severe weather outbreak across the Great Lakes. To have that hype of helicity (200-400m2-s2) mix in with the instability expected spells trouble. Two words: Ongoing Convection Also, storms initiating a bit further north now, things could get interesting if more widespread development occurs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted August 1, 2011 Share Posted August 1, 2011 Storms looking like they may be attaining supercellular characteristics. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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