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Indianapolis 2011 Summer Records Discussion

Chicago WX

By Chicago WX,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

  

12 members have voted

  1. 1. How many consecutive 90º+ days at IND?

  2. 2. Will 2011 be the hottest summer on record at IND?


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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Monthly and season to date stats for Indianapolis.

June

Average temperature: 73.7º (+2.0º) - 39th warmest

Total precipitation: 5.76" (+1.63") - 27th wettest

90º+ days: 4 (71-00 normal 3.3 days)

Highest temp: 95º on the 4th

July

Average temperature: 82.0º (+6.6º) - 2nd warmest

Total precipitation: 0.47" (-4.08") - Driest on record

90º+ days: 20 (71-00 normal 7.3 days)

Highest temp: 100º on the 21st

June 1 - July 31

Average temperature: 77.9º (+4.3º)

Total precipitation: 6.23" (-2.45")

90º+ days: 24 (71-00 normal 10.6 days)

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Looking like Wednesday or Thursday could be the end. Still some fairly warm air lurking aloft on Wednesday so the better bet may be Thursday. Models now resurging the heat on Friday so if it somehow doesn't get broken before that, then the record will probably fall.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Looking like Wednesday or Thursday could be the end. Still some fairly warm air lurking aloft on Wednesday so the better bet may be Thursday. Models now resurging the heat on Friday so if it somehow doesn't get broken before that, then the record will probably fall.

I agree that Wed or Thu could be close, but I think they make it. If they do make it, it's full steam ahead as the ridge re-strengthens thereafter. Could be looking at a record smasher at IND. :popcorn:

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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I agree that Wed or Thu could be close, but I think they make it. If they do make it, it's full steam ahead as the ridge re-strengthens thereafter. Could be looking at a record smasher at IND. :popcorn:

12z NAM has 850 mb temps of 16C on Thursday...would be tough to make it with that. GFS looks warmer but questions about mixing.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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I love warm temps and a few days of HOT weather, but this is just ridiculous! It's almost like that movie Groundhog's Day!

Almost the same weather day after day after day... :lol:

It's something else. No end in sight either. Time to go hunt for some winter storm threads and dream a little. :D

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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No doubt very very premature, but if the record dryness of July carries over through this August, you don't have to go too far back in time to break that record at IND.

Driest Augusts on record at Indianapolis...

2010 - 0.37"

1897 - 0.42"

1884 - 0.46"

1889 - 0.54"

1893 - 0.61"

1964 - 0.68"

1987 - 0.86"

1881 - 0.97"

1982 - 1.00"

1948 - 1.04"

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snowlord81

snowlord81

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up to 93 here on my thermometer. I remember the good ole days where IND struggled it seemed to exceed 90. Not anymore. And I could sure use a break from the heat. We may as well smash the old record but I will be happy with just tying it. I mean come on, its a 75 year old record! Hoosier, what do you think our chances of getting another 100 degree day are this month? Tomorrow may get within a few degrees.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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up to 93 here on my thermometer. I remember the good ole days where IND struggled it seemed to exceed 90. Not anymore. And I could sure use a break from the heat. We may as well smash the old record but I will be happy with just tying it. I mean come on, its a 75 year old record! Hoosier, what do you think our chances of getting another 100 degree day are this month? Tomorrow may get within a few degrees.

Not counting this year, Indianapolis has hit 100 degrees in 20 years since records have been kept. 8 out of 20 years featured at least one 100 degree day in August or September. Might be fair to say there is a heightened chance but still not really high.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Going by record highs for August and September, there are 11 such instances in August (6) and September (5) of 100º+ temps for Indianapolis.

Four of them occurred since they started keeping records at the airport in 1943:

August 16, 1988: 102º

September 1, 1953: 100º

September 2, 1953: 100º

September 5, 1954: 100º

Oh and number 16 in the books.

Indianapolis Area  
Top 10 Occurrences of Consecutive Days with 
Maximum Temperature 90 degrees F or higher
Years: 1871-2011

Rank  # Days   End Date
1     19    8/26/1936
2     18    7/30/1901
3     16    8/ 1/2011
4     15    7/17/1936
5     14    8/13/2007
6     14    7/24/1983
7     14    7/20/1980
8     14    7/ 6/1966
9     13    8/30/1983
10     13    7/31/1940

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Going by record highs for August and September, there are 11 such instances in August (6) and September (5) of 100º+ temps for Indianapolis.

Four of them occurred since they started keeping records at the airport in 1943:

August 16, 1988: 102º

September 1, 1953: 100º

September 2, 1953: 100º

September 5, 1954: 100º

Oh and number 16 in the books.

Indianapolis Area  
Top 10 Occurrences of Consecutive Days with 
Maximum Temperature 90 degrees F or higher
Years: 1871-2011

Rank  # Days   End Date
1     19    8/26/1936
2     18    7/30/1901
3     16    8/ 1/2011
4     15    7/17/1936
5     14    8/13/2007
6     14    7/24/1983
7     14    7/20/1980
8     14    7/ 6/1966
9     13    8/30/1983
10     13    7/31/1940

I think you're missing one for August.

# of August days with 100 degree temps:

3 - 1936

1 - 1881

1 - 1895

1 - 1918

1 - 1988

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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KIND has a great page with hot temp statistics that's constantly updated. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/news/display_cmsstory.php?wfo=ind&storyid=71025&source=0

For example, 100º+ days...

Years at Indianapolis With Daily Temperatures of 100 Degrees
Year   Jun     Jul    Aug      Sep      Ann
1936	0	9	3	0	12
1934	4	6	0	0	10
1988	1	3	1	0	5
1954	1	2	0	1	4
1953	1	0	0	2	3
1881	0	2	1	0	3
1887	0	3	0	0	3
1901	0	3	0	0	3
1930	0	3	0	0	3
1939	0	0	0	2	2
1895	1	0	1	0	2
1911	0	2	0	0	2
1916	0	2	0	0	2
2011	0	1	 	 	1
1918	0	0	1	0	1
1913	0	1	0	0	1
1914	0	1	0	0	1
1940	0	1	0	0	1
1941	0	1	0	0	1
1952	0	1	0	0	1
1980	0	1	0	0	1

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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I think you're missing one for August.

# of August days with 100 degree temps:

3 - 1936

1 - 1881

1 - 1895

1 - 1918

1 - 1988

Eh, I was just going off the number of record highs for August on their website...which is 6. Must have been one day that had two 100º temps in there. EDIT: Looks like it was 1895.

MAXIMUM and MINIMUM Temperature Records for Indianapolis
      (City Office from 1871 through 1942...Airport from 1943 to Current)

                             ...AUGUST...

  Date    Max     Year                      Min     Year
  ----    ---     ----                      ---     ----
    1      97     1887                       53     1992 1971 1895
    2      98     1888                       52     1927 1920
    3      98     1897                       50     1965 
    4      99     1887                       49     1912 
    5     103     1918                       51     1974 

    6      99     1918                       50     1994 1948
    7      98     1930                       49     1989 
    8      98     1941                       48     1989 
    9      99     1930 1894                  50     1884 
   10      99     1911                       50     1972 

   11      99     1941                       51     1967 1965
   12     101     1881                       47     2004 
   13      98     1936                       48     1964 
   14      95     1871                       48     1964 
   15      96     2010 1988                  45     1979 

   16     102     1988                       50     1979 
   17      99     1988                       52     1963 
   18      98     1936                       48     1963 
   19     100     1936                       50     1896 
   20      99     1983                       50     1897 

   21     100     1936                       47     1950 
   22     101     1936                       46     1950 
   23      96     1936                       46     1890 
   24      98     1936                       49     1927 
   25      96     1948 1936 1872             49     1887 

   26      97     1948                       48     1945 1885
   27      97     1948                       48     1968 1885 1876
   28      96     1953 1936 1913             43     1986 
   29      97     1953                       41     1965 
   30      95     1964 1953 1881             42     1986 1946

   31      97     1953 1951                  44     1915

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OHSnow

OHSnow

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Probably won't be the hottest for the Indianapolis area, but I bet it will be the hottest at KIND. It looks to me like most of the hottest summers we're set at the downtown city station, so they were probably aided somewhat by UHI. It will be tough to beat those years -- good chance at the hottest since records were kept at the airport in 1943 though.

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B-Rent

B-Rent

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Probably won't be the hottest for the Indianapolis area, but I bet it will be the hottest at KIND. It looks to me like most of the hottest summers we're set at the downtown city station, so they were probably aided somewhat by UHI. It will be tough to beat those years -- good chance at the hottest since records were kept at the airport in 1943 though.

Didn't miss the hottest July by much.

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snowlord81

snowlord81

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Yeah, its MOS output has been better but still underdone. FWIW, 00z GFS MOS has 90/86 for Wed/Thu.

Even its if underdone, its safe to say it will be close and it may come down to an intra-hour bump. In other news, I wonder if anyone gets close to 100 tomorrow? It will be within a few degrees.

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Hoosier

Hoosier

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Even its if underdone, its safe to say it will be close and it may come down to an intra-hour bump. In other news, I wonder if anyone gets close to 100 tomorrow? It will be within a few degrees.

Looks like widespread mid to upper 90's. I doubt anyone hits 100...maybe a 98/99 or two.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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Today is number 17.

2 to tie, 3 to take the lead... 

Indianapolis Area  
Top 10 Occurrences of Consecutive Days with 
Maximum Temperature 90 degrees F or higher
Years: 1871-2011

Rank  # Days   End Date
1     19    8/26/1936
2     18    7/30/1901
3     17    8/ 2/2011
4     15    7/17/1936
5     14    8/13/2007
6     14    7/24/1983
7     14    7/20/1980
8     14    7/ 6/1966
9     13    8/30/1983
10     13    7/31/1940

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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I think the next two - three days are going to be close for hitting 90 at IND.

It'll be close. Latest point and click for the airport...

Wednesday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 90. North northwest wind around 9 mph.

Thursday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 90. East northeast wind between 5 and 7 mph.

Friday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Saturday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Sunday: A 30 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms. Partly sunny, with a high near 89.

Kinda hoping my random guess of 22 works out, but that takes it into Sunday...which could happen, but it looks like storms/rain/cloud debris are a decent bet Saturday and/or Sunday right now.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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As has been discussed, MOS has been too cool lately, but the 85º for Thursday and 86º for Friday from today's 12z GFS MEX is a little concerning. We'll see...

On another note, seemingly been awhile since I've seen 80's, granted upper 80's, across the board with one of these runs for IND. :arrowhead:

INDIANAPOLIS        
KIND   GFSX MOS GUIDANCE   8/02/2011  1200 UTC                       
FHR  24  36| 48  60| 72  84| 96 108|120 132|144 156|168 180|192      
     WED 03| THU 04| FRI 05| SAT 06| SUN 07| MON 08| TUE 09|WED CLIMO
N/X  74  90| 67  85| 68  86| 72  88| 71  89| 70  87| 69  88| 69 64 84
TMP  76  84| 69  80| 71  79| 74  82| 73  82| 72  81| 71  82| 71      
DPT  68  69| 66  66| 67  72| 70  71| 71  71| 69  69| 68  67| 66      
WND   9  12| 10   7|  6   8|  7  11|  7   8|  7   8|  7   9|  8      
P12  22  15|  8   7| 19  35| 43  32| 20  25| 27  24| 26  27| 30 19 21
P24      35|     11|     38|     63|     39|     39|     45|       32
Q12   0   0|  0   0|  0   1|  1   0|  0   0|  0   0|       |         
Q24       0|      0|      0|      2|      0|      1|       |         
T12  48  32|  1   0| 10  36| 45  30| 18  36| 30  29| 25  30| 28      
T24        | 32    | 15    | 62    | 34    | 48    | 47    | 43

EDIT: 2m high temps from the 12z GFS FWIW:

Wed: 85

Thu: 80 :yikes:

Fri: 85

Sat: 83

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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The streak so far...

7/17...94º

7/18...94º

7/19...96º

7/20...98º

7/21...100º

7/22...97º

7/23...96º

7/24...92º

7/25...92º

7/26...94º

7/27...94º

7/28...97º

7/29...95º

7/30...92º

7/31...94º

8/1...95º

8/2...93º as of 2PM

Worth noting that 7/15 and 7/16 both had highs of 89º.

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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90º+ streak may have legs...for quite awhile possibly...according to KIND's AFD this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY SPEAKING GUIDANCE HAS

BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL RECENTLY AND FOLLOWED THIS TREND.

ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY

MORNING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT IN AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE THOSE DAYS AND DRY SOIL

STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH/EXCEED 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THIS AMOUNTED TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND A FEW

DEGREES ABOVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LINGERING

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE

SIMILAR...BUT AS USUAL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE SMALLER WAVES. USED

HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH YIELDS CHANCES FOR RAIN SAT/SUN

AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE

NINETY WEATHER STICK AROUND? NUDGED UP GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO

BASED ON PAST VERIFICATIOBN WHICH PUTS THE INDY AREA JUST BELOW

90...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVEN WARMER TRENDS PREVAIL. TOO

EARLY TO TELL ATTM.

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LizardMafia

LizardMafia

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90º+ streak may have legs...for quite awhile possibly...according to KIND's AFD this afternoon.

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...

FORECAST FOCUS IS ON TEMPERATURES. GENERALLY SPEAKING GUIDANCE HAS

BEEN SEVERAL DEGREES TOO COOL RECENTLY AND FOLLOWED THIS TREND.

ALTHOUGH COLD FRONT WILL BE JUST ABOUT THROUGH THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY

MORNING AND COLDER TEMPERATURES WILL ADVECT IN AT 850 MB ON THURSDAY

AND FRIDAY...WITH A GREAT DEAL OF SUNSHINE THOSE DAYS AND DRY SOIL

STILL EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REACH/EXCEED 90 FOR MOST OF THE AREA.

THIS AMOUNTED TO A DEGREE OR TWO ABOVE GUIDANCE WEDNESDAY AND A FEW

DEGREES ABOVE FOR THURSDAY AND FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

FOCUS IS ON CHANCES FOR RAIN...MAINLY FOR THIS WEEKEND. A LINGERING

FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND

THUNDERSTORMS AS SEVERAL WAVES RIDE ALONG IT. OVERALL THE MODELS ARE

SIMILAR...BUT AS USUAL DIFFER ON DETAILS OF THE SMALLER WAVES. USED

HPC GUIDANCE FOR THIS PERIOD WHICH YIELDS CHANCES FOR RAIN SAT/SUN

AND DRIER WEATHER FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. NEXT BIG QUESTION IS WILL THE

NINETY WEATHER STICK AROUND? NUDGED UP GUIDANCE A DEGREE OR TWO

BASED ON PAST VERIFICATIOBN WHICH PUTS THE INDY AREA JUST BELOW

90...BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED IF EVEN WARMER TRENDS PREVAIL. TOO

EARLY TO TELL ATTM.

:facepalm: When will it end?!?!?!? :lmao:

I read Larry Cosgrove's blog from this past weekend (http://www.examiner.com/weather-in-houston/weatheramerica-newsletter-part-2-saturday-july-30-2011-at-5-40-p-m-ct) and his thought is that is this pattern could last until Labor Day.. :yikes:

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Chicago WX

Chicago WX

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:facepalm: When will it end?!?!?!? :lmao:

September?

For real though, most of the guidance seems to be retrograding the ridge west (and flattening it south) in the extended. Have to think our rainfall chances go up and the real heat (our relative real heat) stays confined to well southwest of here. I think the 90 streak breaks soon, but the record looks like toast.

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