Winter about to mean business folks!

[Damage In Tolland]

The GFS meant business, tonight.

[winter_warlock]

The GFS meant business, tonight.

and the 06z gfs looked even better... not to sound too much like a weenie, after all still got 6 days to go... now we need euro to get back on board

[Typhoon Tip]

Quick comment to update this (and I may annotate some historical reference to elucidate)

Firstly, the active pattern has been and is on-going and continuing well underway. Yes winter is meaning business, just exactly as this originally discussed - but we have to remain objective, and aware, (emotion aside Kevin for just a momnet please...) that an active pattern comes with good and bad aspects. As scientist we know this, as enthusiasts, it may be hard to remember when caught up in the weeds of want one wants, but is not getting, not to allow that to cloud opinions over what is actually taking place (and I am not meaning to come off entirely innocent of poking the hornets nest - I'm human too)

Having said that, 2ndly, the ECM has been on and off with this re the 00z run …this may come right back on the 12z based on that recent pattern of behavior, or perhaps wait a cycle or two. I think it more intriguing that so many ensemble members jump on board, and the 06z run came in almost identical. We are in the very oh so early stages of increasing confidence.

Important note: I mentioned this in that "WOOF" thred; one aspect most guidance agree upon is that the NAO block is repositioning from D-Straight/Greenland to central/northern Canada, a circumstance that in the past has contributed to enforcing phasing in the OV/MA/NE states many times. This immeidately asserts the synoptic overview of the period in question supports cyclogen along the EC. This has a bit more zeal then anything up to this date so far this cold season, and at D7-9, of course there may be some coherence issues as this scope gradually comes into better focus - probably about 60 or 72 hours from now.

[shadow]

the weather is very active for sure

[Baroclinic Zone]

Now we can unpin this.

[Damage In Tolland]

Please please get rid of this

[HoarfrostHubb]

Now we can unpin this.

Is there a trashcan for threads that never live up to their titles?

[doug1991]

Is there a trashcan for Winters that never live up to their titles?

Fixed lol

[Typhoon Tip]

There's nothing wrong with this thread.

I am aware that you want to take your frustration out on something, but you were warned not to allow this to affect you on a personal level. Yet you allow it, and look where you are.

This pattern is active; just because it not doing what you want it (to date) in your back yard, it is active. And, there is a lot of knowledge to be had here - did any of that penetrate?

[Damage In Tolland]

There's nothing wrong with this thread.

I am aware that you want to take your frustration out on something, but you were warned not to allow this to affect you on a personal level. Yet you allow it, and look where you are.

This pattern is active; just because it not doing what you want it (to date) in your back yard, it is active. And, there is a lot of knowledge to be had here - did any of that penetrate?

John,

No offense towards you or anything you posted. I know there was lots of good stuff in here.

It's just when we look and see winter is about to mean busienss and it's been there for 2 weeks and only some of us have seen 1-2 inches of snow..well you know.

Again please don't take offense. none was intended

[HoarfrostHubb]

There's nothing wrong with this thread.

I am aware that you want to take your frustration out on something, but you were warned not to allow this to affect you on a personal level. Yet you allow it, and look where you are.

This pattern is active; just because it not doing what you want it (to date) in your back yard, it is active. And, there is a lot of knowledge to be had here - did any of that penetrate?

I also want to echo Kevin's apology. This thread had copious nuggets of information in it. I hope I learn something every day I read your posts as well as many others. I was just griping to blow off steam. No offense was meant to you, Tip, or to anyone else who was kind enough to offer useful, free met knowledge.

I hope Santa brings you a blizzard under your tree (or near your Festivus Pole)

[Typhoon Tip]

Guys, thanks, but I really wasn't offended - it's just that Meteorology extends beyond the bounds of whether or not it is snowing, and I was afraid the better facets of the discussion were lost because not getting snow might be clouding judgment. Fact of the matter is, this is an active pattern. Also, we broke the 10 month long string of above normal temperatures in New England's major climo sites. I call that winter meaning business... It seemed nothing would break that streak and here we are.

Just be patient. It will snow eventually in this - I promise.

Having said that - if this immediate opportunity does behave as a miss, we may yet get some wrap around holiday spirit later in the week ...hey, just in time for the big day?

Perhaps. Also, one long shot to consider is that if this gets any more progressive the door opens for that clipper to dig more next week. After what we just came through, NOTHING can be discounted as plausible in guidance much less verification.