Winter about to mean business folks!

[OKpowdah]

Very well written Tip

Job 37:6 For he saith to the snow, Fall thou on the earth

[40/70 Benchmark]

Man, have you ever more wanted/anticipated a model run like this immediate ensuing 12z Euro - you can cut it with a knife

You'll probably need that knife after viewing the 12z EURO....

[weatherwiz]

Excellent write up, John!

We all definitely should be excited about where we are headed in the upcoming week, lots of potential looms just around the corner. Seems like everything atmospherically and teleconnection wise is setting up in our favor at just about the right time of year which is awesome. I think we have some fun times coming up.

[Typhoon Tip]

You'll probably need that knife after viewing the 12z EURO....

wouldn't shock me; something's gotta go wrong between now and then with so many days

[40/70 Benchmark]

wouldn't shock me; something's gotta go wrong between now and then with so many days

Grab the knife.

[Typhoon Tip]

Grab the knife.

Actually, I can't even see it - none of the sites are updating on time.

[Damage In Tolland]

Grab my junk.

Don't think he plays that way

[Baroclinic Zone]

Actually, I can't even see it - none of the sites are updating on time.

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/ECMWF0.5_0z/ecmwfloop.html

[Typhoon Tip]

http://www.meteo.psu.../ecmwfloop.html

Hey, thanks, I'll book mark this one as a alternate source -

Ray, you didn't study. This is not a bad run at all - in fact, considering the last 3 cycles, it is perfectly what you want the trend to be.... It is farther S/E with the depth of the core trough heights than the previous run, and is very close to driving the whole thing under LI. Also, this is still beyond the ECM wheelhouse... All told this should be an encouraging run. It's all intensifying in the trend too - geez that's almost historic on this run.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Don't think he plays that way

Don't think Will cares for that in pinned threads.

[Damage In Tolland]

Hey, thanks, I'll book mark this one as a alternate source -

Ray, you didn't study. This is not a bad run at all - in fact, considering the last 3 cycles, it is perfectly what you want the trend to be.... It is farther S/E with the depth of the core trough heights than the previous run, and is very close to driving the whole thing under LI. Also, this is still beyond the ECM wheelhouse... All told this should be an encouraging run. It's all intensifying in the trend too - geez that's almost historic on this run.

Yeah alot of bathtub drownings going on in the disco thread...when this run of the Euro was a big step in the colder direction as we thought should happen given the blocking

[40/70 Benchmark]

Hey, thanks, I'll book mark this one as a alternate source -

Ray, you didn't study. This is not a bad run at all - in fact, considering the last 3 cycles, it is perfectly what you want the trend to be.... It is farther S/E with the depth of the core trough heights than the previous run, and is very close to driving the whole thing under LI. Also, this is still beyond the ECM wheelhouse... All told this should be an encouraging run. It's all intensifying in the trend too - geez that's almost historic on this run.

John, I gathered that after exchanging some posts with Scott and Will.

Hopefully we see these trends continue.

[subdude]

Now this is a thread I enjoy reading on a Mon morning.

[Alpha5]

Yeah.....

[Damage In Tolland]

Please unpin this

[Baroclinic Zone]

Please unpin this

Winter is unleashed, just not in our yards.

[Typhoon Tip]

Please unpin this

It goes without saying …or, getting exhausting to do so … that the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient.

[40/70 Benchmark]

It goes without saying …or, getting exhausting to do so … that the dynamics for these systems are still out over the relative data sparse domain of the Pacific; there will be limited consensus until it is thoroughly relayed over land.

I wouldn't panic just yet, although I understand that you would rather not have to wait for a dreamy model solution. Fact of the matter is, none of the points of that discussion are invalidated because of the 12z Euro not sitting will with the collective hopes and aspirations of this forum. In fact, I even mentioned near the end that we would have to watch for stream phasing in this; I just think it ironic that as soon as I publihsed this thing almost immediately the next model cycles started showing that

Just be patient.

Tip, with all due respect, its over.....feel free to campaign for my banishment if we end up buried.

[Jebman]

Exciting times ahead!

I have peered through the looking glass and has emerged images foreboding rewards and dividends for enduring the almighty westerly-based NAO. Nice to see this which I have not seen in recent years, and that is a linking of major domain spaces from eastern Asia around the globe to eastern N/A - this happened a few times in the mid to late 1970s.

It is hemispheric in scale, and it "may" mean business (sorry about the double quotation mark cop-out, but I gotta do it).

1) Tropical forcing in the Pacific is about as incoherent as I have ever seen it. The MJO wave guide/Wheeler diagrams are showing a completely benign contribution, and without any means to spin the roulette wheel from Japan to California, the -PNA should probably persist. There is monkey-wrench though - the CDC does not concur (below)

2) What is appearing to be the age of the monster polar field invasion [maybe] at hand. It just appears that all anomaly vectors will be controlled by events above 55N until further notice without substantive TF. Those polar teleconnectors being the West Pacific Oscillation, which has a strong correlation on the East Pacific Osciallation, and over the next 10 days to two weeks will be entering a period of rather intense negative SD; this by means of the GFS cluster EOFs derived nightly at CDC. CPC does publish WPO, which would be useful, but since they do not I only have the former to consider

3) As a general overview, here is how this may all play out through Christmas: The WPO relays a mighty negative SD into the EPO - a key link that with very large unionized mass fields implies something dominating. When then applying the typical west to east spacial-temporal requirements (couple days to a week, give or take) that is a higher confidence relay given to the correlation. The positive correlation is there because of Rossby wave numbers and the fact that the atmosphere is always trying to find the most stable spacial layout for long wave troughs and ridges around the hemisphere. Erstwhile, the NAO, which is initially far enough removed from its cousins out west, can and will relax. What does this do? The -EPO this time appears more capable (do to synoptic details regarding placement of features) of creating a trans-Siberian flow across the recovered land-based cryosphere, and now sea ice, into the NW Territories of Canada. The NAO then pulses back strongly negative after 10 days. The relay would complete latching onto this cold air mass, and we wind up with a truer Arctic outbreak between mid month and Christmas.

4) Details: Snow is coming! Firstly, we inject a low-amplitude wave out of the data-sparse region of the east Pacific. I fear this system may be too easily ignored (understandable as focus will naturally want to fall on the Archembault stem-winder event immediately there after) but has potential to do interesting things over next weekend. There is a weak Miller-B transfer scenario signaled there; although the NAO is already entering the relaxation period, I believe the 00z deterministic Euro-type idea of running that up through western/central Ontario is over-doing it, dismantling the NAO influence on the field a bit too zealously quick. Even the hugely biased westerly CMC solution fails the Euro idea, and pops off a 1000mb low leaving Boston Light come next Sunday. D7 is outside the Euro wheelhouse where its verification scores tend to fall off precipitously despite being terrifyingly accurate through D4.5, so I am willing to take the gamble that the NAO willl remain somewhat vestigially influential and keep the storm track more suppressed than the ECM idea. That said, that 'weak Miller-B' is questionable within the blend of the GGEM/GFS thinking. There is a quasi-Norlun appeal there. There is residual jetlet speed maxes running off the Jersey coast latitudes and up under LI or even over head from regardless of any successfully closed off surface circulation in the models. This would mean a compensating surface trough might linger and start the old dendrite production between 850 and 700mb game. Either way, mulit-guidance, mulit-run flagging a polar surface high anchoring N of Maine will mean generalized polar marine transport into a snow profile, which without these more organized definitions tends me to visual grains and flurries amid blue/gray winter chill would characterized the period. Cold air will not be an issue at any time during that time frame, Fri - the following Wed I believe.

The big event: I tipped my hat earlier but that very much appears to be an Archembault stem-winder across now 3 cycles of the GFS, and sits well within the GFS' own ensemble teleconnector spread at the CPC. Unfortunately, the CDC does not agree - I am unsure why the CPC's PNA values are not on the same page with CDC, but where the PNA persist negative at CPC, it spikes to a positive 1SD (almost) at CDC. They derive the values differently: The CDC uses lower tropospheric flux anomalies; the CPC use mid level geopotential anomalies. That question may come down to domain space. But, the CDC values asserts some excitement, the NAO relaxes, the PNA spikes, the flow becomes less compressed over the deep S/SE, and viola! What the GFS did yesterday on the 18z was a brilliant example of dual stream phasing, with PV bifurcation and subsuming of an intermediate, dynamics loaded S/W into a closed bomb near Del Marva. That tasty solution would heave 18"+ from interior VA to Maine notwithstanding the red herring time range of 200 hours at the time. This morning, however, looking at all these mass field teleconnector behaviors, it is not hard to see why the run suddenly opted to generate such a magnificent idea. Moreover, details aside ... the fact that every cycle since has a major EC system, ..including the Euro, it all comes together for better than 50/50 that a large scale event will be there at mid month. I toyed around with this idea a few days ago and I think Scott and I might have shared a post or two about it if memory servers, but at the time it was more NAO-related in that the relaxation was being picked up then - and still is. So it was so-so as a signal. But this appears to be teleconnector convergence, a phrase I coined for when you have initially disparate statistical packages pointing to a similar result at a given location. I like to think of it as the view down the site of rifle scope where it yo-yo in and out of focus, red dots, then kills.

Lots of time, but exciting times ahead. Now, the 12z GFS is coming out any moment. Let's see how continuity - if so - continues, or if immediately it gets lost in an attempt to debase this effort ( ). Even if it does, I would not be shocked if it came back in future runs.

John

John - Excellent summary as usual. Love reading your work. I DO realize that this IS the NEW ENGLAND forum - But I could not resist reiterating the LINKING OF MAJOR DOMAIN SPACES AROUND THE WORLD that you mentioned.

One thing I have learned from reading your works is that when you start mentioning those kinds of parameters - We had better look out. You likely have New England mainly in mind - thus this thread is in the NEW ENGLAND forum and most decisively NOT in the mid atlantic forum. But it is what it is - When you speak - EVERYONE LISTENS.

Last low sun season you mentioned something about a magnitude of stratospheric warming event for which there was no counterpart in the database. That screamed RED ALERT, and just look what happened.

[Typhoon Tip]

John - Excellent summary as usual. Love reading your work. I DO realize that this IS the NEW ENGLAND forum - But I could not resist reiterating the LINKING OF MAJOR DOMAIN SPACES AROUND THE WORLD that you mentioned.

One thing I have learned from reading your works is that when you start mentioning those kinds of parameters - We had better look out. You likely have New England mainly in mind - thus this thread is in the NEW ENGLAND forum and most decisively NOT in the mid atlantic forum. But it is what it is - When you speak - EVERYONE LISTENS.

Last low sun season you mentioned something about a magnitude of stratospheric warming event for which there was no counterpart in the database. That screamed RED ALERT, and just look what happened.

Yeah, and ... we'll see soon enough how it all goes down. Unfortunately though, nature doesn't care if the wild time is a rain or snow event - so the merit of this kind of thing would certainly be lost beneath the din of disappointment should things get wild the wrong way.

I still see plenty of evidence that supports colder scenarios through the end of the month, regardless of what happens next week deliberately to incur wrath upon Kevin and Ray out of cruel, hideous entertainment by some invisible weather god that hates them - (ha ha)

[Damage In Tolland]

Please unpin this

[Tropopause_Fold]

Please unpin this

[Baroclinic Zone]

Please unhinge me

[Damage In Tolland]

Please unpin this

[OKpowdah]

Please unpin this

Well, at some point the thread title will apply. Might have to wait a few years, but it'll happen!

[40/70 Benchmark]

I'm buried up to me weenie in business folks!

[Baroclinic Zone]

I'm buried my weenie in the business folks!

[OKpowdah]

Please unpin this

[WeatherX]

Good post Tip....keep the faith!

[40/70 Benchmark]

The GFS meant business, tonight.