LES event 12/5-12/7 Ohio

[WNYLakeEffect]

How this isn't warning criteria, I'll never know!

It's funny considering they put this in their AFD:

WILL FOLLOW THE GOLDEN RULE OF LAKE

EFFECT "KEEP THE WARNING GOING UNTIL THE SNOW SHOWS DEFINITE SIGNS

OF STOPPING OR STOPS".

[carumba]

How this isn't warning criteria, I'll never know!

Dude, the snow here in Beachwood is AWFUL. It has been blowing in from the west-northwest all day and it has never let up since 7 - 8 this morning. Still going strong, hope it ends soon. Folks here at work are bailing early, roads are treacherous.

[Trent]

Leaving work. 8" in 6 hours downtown. No warning. Epic fail by CLE

[NEOH]

Dude, the snow here in Beachwood is AWFUL. It has been blowing in from the west-northwest all day and it has never let up since 7 - 8 this morning. Still going strong, hope it ends soon. Folks here at work are bailing early, roads are treacherous.

Where in Beachwood are you? Snow has been non-stop in Chagrin as well.

[NEOH]

Leaving work. 8" in 6 hours downtown. No warning. Epic fail by CLE

Warning is now up for cuyahoga. Congrats on the snow. Your call of 5 inches busted

Travel is going to be almost impossible this evening. Can't wait to see how much snow has fallen at home. I have a feeling I'm not going to be pleased.

[Trent]

8.5" fell at home.Unbelievable, I left for work thinking it was going to be a typical cloudy cold day. Boy was I wrong.Look like I hit jackpot.

[dta1984]

Wow this is some Heavy snow! Big flat flakes, and finally very little wind. 271 was a mess, didn't go above 20mph from 422 up to Mayfield. I work in Solon, and the accumulations don't look too different for today, but haven't done any measuring.

[dilly84]

Was watching STO, and the live shots they are showing outside, looks like CLE is getting pummled right now, and have been for the past 3 hours.

[Trent]

[Trent]

Perhaps one of the most epic fails by CLE. I had to abandon my car downtown. It's taking people 2 hours just to go a few blocks. Absolute gridlock.

[Hoosier]

Perhaps one of the most epic fails by CLE. I had to abandon my car downtown. It's taking people 2 hours just to go a few blocks. Absolute gridlock.

Seems like you bash Cleveland a lot.

[TheWeatherPimp]

Granted Lake Effect snow tends to be difficult to forecast, but in Trent's defense, CLE is definitely not one of the best offices out there. For that matter neither Ohio office is (ILN or CLE)

[Trent]

Seems like you bash Cleveland a lot.

Well, let's look at this way. At 9 am this morning there were no advisories with up to 2" of snow in the forecast. By 11 am, when the heavy snow began it was clear that this was going to be huge. Warnings were not issued til the event was nearing end. Downtown Cleveland was utter gridlock, with many, including myself, abandoning their cars and taking trains home.

Local news are calling this one of the most intense lake effect storms to hit downtown in 20 years. About 10 inches fell in 10 hours, these types of events downtown, while not rare, are generally reserved for areas a 5-10 miles inland.

Just measured 10.2" IMBY.

[Northernohio]

From talking to people back home in Avon Lake a couple hours ago they said we had 4 or 5 inches. We looked to be in that CLE band for parts of the day but sometimes out of it, would guess they probably have 6 inches on the ground IMBY.

[TheWeatherPimp]

From looking at obs and storm reports, Northern Erie (particulary Northeast) and Northern Lorain could have justified a LES Advisory

[OHweather]

Was in and out of the band all day (generally on the southern fringe) and have recieved 5.8" here in Solon since about 8am. This pushes my total up to 28.5" from Saturday evening, which is very impressive. Am now back into the heavy band with bursts of heavy snow reducing the visibility below a quarter mile at times and quickly snowing the roads back over, and based on radar this should continue for a few more hours. In fact, a WRF out of PSU shows at least light-moderate bands continuing over the Snow Belt into early tomorrow morning, so some areas could see a local 4-5" tonight:

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/WRFRAD_18z/jloop.html

I don't like to bash CLE, but I agree they busted terribly today. Downtown was crippled and they didn't see it coming.

[NEOH]

There have been fatalities on the roads tonight. Many people stranded in traffic for several hours, school buses stuck in snow, Cavs not being able to make to the game on time ... CLE dropped the ball big time, and they are worthy of bashing. Not to mention this snow has impacted the largest population centers of NE OH. These guys have to stop hugging every WRF run and do a little forecasting themselves. Lake effect rarely pans out how the models predict it.

Snow is still falling. I'd bet another 3-6 fall tonight. Looking upstream... snow is still flying off the other lakes which is a good sign that things aren't ending soon.

[Chagrin Falls]

I think the City of Cleveland would have been adversely effected by today's snow whether or not they knew about the accumulation ahead of time. It is rare for downtown Cleveland and the west side to get significant accumulating lake effect snow. Cleveland-Edgewater received 8" during the daylight hours, that is rare! Add the dysfunction, poverty, corruption and financial issues of the city, and, well, you get the idea. I drove from Chagrin Falls to Trumbull County and back today on Rt 87. It was slow going but the road was treated and safe.

In any event, I received 11.4" today in Chagrin Falls, but only 14" of snow currently on the ground due to compacting. We've had accumulating snow everyday this month so far.

Today's event reminded me more of a Lake Ontario-Tug Hill type single-band. There was a trough that remained quasi-stationary on the north side of the lake in the synoptic cyclonic flow. There must have been an awful lot of directional convergence going on. Typically, Chagrin Falls gets lake effect with surface winds 290°-310°, but today's south shore lake winds were around 240°. On the north side of Lake Erie the average wind seemed to be more from 290° or so.

In retrospect, looking at a cross-section over CLE there wasn't much speed or direction shear (vs. the latitudinal directional shear across the lake today), therefore it was a good environment for a single band event.

I don't know what the mesoscale models were predicting this morning, but I doubt they did a good job with this. There just isn't enough data over Lake Erie to forecast this event in advance. Hindsight is usually so clear in meteorology, but with this event I really have to dig to come up with plausible explanations.

[Chagrin Falls]

Someone is going to get nailed hard during the Sunday-Tuesday event. The thermal instability over the lake will be nearing extreme levels with a 850 hPa temperature approaching -20°C. The surface low will be further south over New England vs. this week's low, which means the wind will have a more northerly component. I'm looking for somewhere in the secondary snowbelt or far inland SW primary snowbelt to get nailed and nailed good.

Luckily, it looks like a return to a zonal flow and positive temperature anomalies towards the end of next week.

[dilly84]

I think the City of Cleveland would have been adversely effected by today's snow whether or not they knew about the accumulation ahead of time. It is rare for downtown Cleveland and the west side to get significant accumulating lake effect snow. Cleveland-Edgewater received 8" during the daylight hours, that is rare! Add the dysfunction, poverty, corruption and financial issues of the city, and, well, you get the idea. I drove from Chagrin Falls to Trumbull County and back today on Rt 87. It was slow going but the road was treated and safe.

In any event, I received 11.4" today in Chagrin Falls, but only 14" of snow currently on the ground due to compacting. We've had accumulating snow everyday this month so far.

Today's event reminded me more of a Lake Ontario-Tug Hill type single-band. There was a trough that remained quasi-stationary on the north side of the lake in the synoptic cyclonic flow. There must have been an awful lot of directional convergence going on. Typically, Chagrin Falls gets lake effect with surface winds 290°-310°, but today's south shore lake winds were around 240°. On the north side of Lake Erie the average wind seemed to be more from 290° or so.

In retrospect, looking at a cross-section over CLE there wasn't much speed or direction shear (vs. the latitudinal directional shear across the lake today), therefore it was a good environment for a single band event.

I don't know what the mesoscale models were predicting this morning, but I doubt they did a good job with this. There just isn't enough data over Lake Erie to forecast this event in advance. Hindsight is usually so clear in meteorology, but with this event I really have to dig to come up with plausible explanations.

a ohio met. Whats your thoughts on the weekend sir, buying the euro or all the other models? Meaning what would be your best bet for the track of the storm. OV or a cutter

[Trent]

I went back downtown to get my car after I left it. It was still gridlock at 9:30pm. I measured about 11-12" of snow downtown. There were cars still on E 9th street (major street downtown) that were just sitting in the middle of the street left to sit.

This was an extremely unusual event. This was just a firehose band of snow that you normally see up towards Buffalo or off Lake Ontario. It did not move for 10 hours.

[Trent]

Here is a video I took from work during the day at 3:30. It was a whiteout for hours. You can barely see the street below:

[aldie 22]

I'm in Cleveland/Chagrin and the snow has been off and on heavy/light for awhile now. Mostly light/mod now

[OHweather]

Am still seeing light to occasionally moderate snow here, however it LOOKS like the snow is finally winding down...racked up another 4.8" last night. Yes, the remaining band sat over me all night. This brings the storm total up to 33.3"...very impressive.

[Trent]

This is impressive:

"the water temperature off toledo is 33 degrees...off cleveland 39 degrees and off erie 37 degrees." Average for Cleveland is 43 right now, we could be making ice by next week along the shores and western basin.

[NEOH]

I'm in Cleveland/Chagrin and the snow has been off and on heavy/light for awhile now. Mostly light/mod now

You should schedule another business trip next week as well. Could be another nice event.

[NEOH]

I think the City of Cleveland would have been adversely effected by today's snow whether or not they knew about the accumulation ahead of time. It is rare for downtown Cleveland and the west side to get significant accumulating lake effect snow. Cleveland-Edgewater received 8" during the daylight hours, that is rare! Add the dysfunction, poverty, corruption and financial issues of the city, and, well, you get the idea. I drove from Chagrin Falls to Trumbull County and back today on Rt 87. It was slow going but the road was treated and safe.

I don't know what the mesoscale models were predicting this morning, but I doubt they did a good job with this. There just isn't enough data over Lake Erie to forecast this event in advance. Hindsight is usually so clear in meteorology, but with this event I really have to dig to come up with plausible explanations.

Good to see you made it over here. The prudent approach would have probably have been to leave the existing warnings in place. Winds were forecast to back more westerly with reduced winds speeds (which favor heavier snows along the lakeshore). With a fetch of anywhere between 275-290 the western basin comes into play and a single band development is likely. You're right, none of local models caught on to this. The convergence from the WSW flow south of the lake also played a big factor.

Any thoughts on the weekend storm. Would be great to get an opinion from a local met.

[michsnowfreak]

Here is a video I took from work during the day at 3:30. It was a whiteout for hours. You can barely see the street below:

WOW jealous. And this started out as such a nonevent for Cleveland proper.

[OHSnow]

4 day storm totals

YNG 23.8

CAK 7.3

CLE 5.9

ERI 5.1

MFD 3.1

TOL 0.5