LES event 12/5-12/7 Ohio

[NEOH]

Yeah, snow is starting to rip here as well. Strong winds as well. Sure wish the winds would relax a bit to allow for better band development. Looks like moisture is pinwheeling around from the NE so the snow should intensify over the next hours. If i had to guess, we probably picked up 2 or 3 inches overnight.

[OHWxWatcher]

Getting a decent snow shower here at the moment, with very little wind.

[Trent]

The relentless winds of 35 mph+ for the past 12 hours are insane.

[NEOH]

The relentless winds of 35 mph+ for the past 12 hours are insane.

Just got to my office in Chagrin and the winds are much more relaxed. What a difference the further inland you go. Snowing but not all that hard... flake size is larger out here. That band in lake and geauga looks to be the primary band. The winds should back a little this afternoon so we might be able to get one intense band if the flow can back to 290 or so. CLE mentions a 10 to 30 degree wind shift?! 850's cool as the day goes on so instability will get better.

[NEOH]

This is mostly from a dominant band that develops from about 6pm -10pm tomorrow night. I'm not sure how accurate these models are though.

Bet that map verifies. The placement looks dead on with the radar. It's a whiteout in Chagrin right now. Looks like the band that was in lake and geauga backed to the west.

[carumba]

Bet that map verifies. The placement looks dead on with the radar. It's a whiteout in Chagrin right now. Looks like the band that was in lake and geauga backed to the west.

Yep, it's a whiteout here just south of Chagrin Falls. Driveway was plowed at 5am but it's all filled right back up again. Snowing moderately here. I've seen heavier but the wind has died down and it's accumulating everywhere now. Nice, off to work to brave the roads!

[NEOH]

Yep, it's a whiteout here just south of Chagrin Falls. Driveway was plowed at 5am but it's all filled right back up again. Snowing moderately here. I've seen heavier but the wind has died down and it's accumulating everywhere now. Nice, off to work to brave the roads!

My office in right on the border of Chagrin and south russell. If this band stays put for awhile, which it does, this area is going to get dumped on. How much would you say is on the ground 6+? Hard to say with all of the blowing and drifting.

Trent's area looks to be getting in on the action as well.

[NEOH]

What a morning so far... it's been snowing 1-2 inches per hour since 8am. Visibility has been near zero at times.

Looking at the satellite, there appears to be a nice batch of moisture moving south from Ontario. This should improve snowfall coverage and increase intensity. There are definitely going to be some impressive totals should this continue to Wednesday morning.

I'm flying out tonight to WI

[Trent]

Moderate snow downtown, but with 40 mph winds everything is windswept. It looks like it is snowing upwards in the skyscraper I'm in.

[carumba]

What a morning so far... it's been snowing 1-2 inches per hour since 8am. Visibility has been near zero at times.

Looking at the satellite, there appears to be a nice batch of moisture moving south from Ontario. This should improve snowfall coverage and increase intensity. There are definitely going to be some impressive totals should this continue to Wednesday morning.

I'm flying out tonight to WI

Good thing the airport is on the west side of town!

[carumba]

Moderate snow downtown, but with 40 mph winds everything is windswept. It looks like it is snowing upwards in the skyscraper I'm in.

Here in Beachwood it's howling, heavy snow, strong westerly component to it. Good thing is the wind is not strong enough to stop accums but is strong enough to stop accums on vehicles parked! Scraping is one of my least-favored byproducts of a decent snowfall.

[swohiowxnut]

Getting a real good LE squall down here. Hope it deposits a surprise.

[NEOH]

Moderate snow downtown, but with 40 mph winds everything is windswept. It looks like it is snowing upwards in the skyscraper I'm in.

Did you bring your camera to work? Looks like the winds are trying to turn a littl more westerly. Snow should really ramp up this afternoon. Single dominant band perhaps?

Still not sure what/if any impact that disturbance (or whatever it is) moving south from Ontario will have. If anything the moisture will help with seeding.

[Trent]

Did you bring your camera to work? Looks like the winds are trying to turn a littl more westerly. Snow should really ramp up this afternoon. Single dominant band perhaps?

Still not sure what/if any impact that disturbance (or whatever it is) moving south from Ontario will have. If anything the moisture will help with seeding.

Things are switching westerly which is helping here. Would love to get a nice dominant east west band that grazes the coast for a few hours. However with these winds no matter how much snow falls it just blows away. Last year I went to bed with 6-7" on the front lawn and woke up to 40 mile winds and grass.

[OHweather]

Wow, the snow took a while to get organized last night, but once it did things really got cranking.

Last night between 9:30pm and 6:30am saw approximately 4" here in Solon. Today, heavy snow started a little before 10 and has not stopped. Rates have been 1-2" per hour since 10am, and right now we are in the thick of things with decent sized dendrites raining down and accumulating very fast, with the visibility hovering near a quarter mile. If I had to estimate based on how much snow is on the ground and measurements I've taken (there is some moderate drifting) about 8" has fallen since 6:30am, and it is still coming down. This 8" may be a little low given the snow was just blowing away for a while earlier this afternoon.

The 12" from last night and today thus far puts me up to 15.5", as 3.5" had already fallen over the course of Saturday night and Sunday. Right now if anything the bands are intensifying some. Wow.

[Trent]

I'm eager to see how much fell at home. Its been snowing moderately downtown on and off all day but you'd never know as the ground is windswept. Looking good around Solon per radar, seems the bands have switched to elevation enhanced now.

[Trent]

There was essentially no accumulation at all today both downtown, at home, and at CLE. Truly amazing considering it was frequently 1/2 mile visibility. Looks like CLE picked up 0.4" for the day. I had an additional 0.2". Amazing to think you can go 10 miles and have over a foot on the ground!

[carumba]

There was essentially no accumulation at all today both downtown, at home, and at CLE. Truly amazing considering it was frequently 1/2 mile visibility. Looks like CLE picked up 0.4" for the day. I had an additional 0.2". Amazing to think you can go 10 miles and have over a foot on the ground!

I'd say here in Chagrin Falls we've got 14 - 18" although the depth is much lower in some areas, maybe 2-3", owing to substantial drift. But in exposed areas well away from trees or structures it comes up past my knees.

[Chagrin Falls]

I measured 2.5" from 9 p.m. yesterday to 9 a.m. this morning, then 6.4" from 9 a.m. this morning to 6:30 p.m. this evening. 14.6" total snowfall thus far for the month, and 9" on the ground (average) now due to settling.

I didn't measure any water equivalent yesterday or today, but I noticed today's snowfall was much wetter than yesterday's. Last night walking through the snow was as easy as walking through Styrofoam popcorn, but shoveling today seemed a bit more difficult than the typical light-weight lake effect snow. Perhaps the deep, stationary low over Quebec is stacked enough that Atlantic moisture has been brought westward across southeast Canada to the Great Lakes? That has happened several times this fall, in some of the most extreme cases even warm air advection has descended southward out of Canada.

I've noticed the relative humidity has dropped a bit this evening (much like last night), but it will likely increase again overnight as another spoke of moisture looks like it will rotate southward from Canada.

Even more impressive is the cold snap after the next significant low. Today's 850 hPa temperatures are around -10°C, but the latest medium range ensemble maps show the 850 hPa temperature on Monday (next week) around -16°C or colder. With another persistent period of NW flow and some added moisture...now that could potentially be a BIG event!

From the Buffalo AFD this evening:

REGARDLESS OF WHICH MODEL HAS THE EXACT EVOLUTION CORRECT...IT DOES APPEAR LIKELY TO BE COLD ON THE BACK OF THE SYSTEM...WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMING IN BEHIND THE LOW. NUDGE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS BASED ON THIS AGREEMENT...WITH SOLID CONFIDENCE WE/LL STRAY QUITE A BIT COLDER THAN CLIMO-INFLUENCED MOS NUMBERS. SHOULD BE A SNOW SHOWERY PERIOD...AND COLD LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

The CLE spotter reports should come out by 11 p.m. here:

http://www.erh.noaa.gov/cle/clesnow.php

There should be some hefty amounts once again around Geauga Co.

[Trent]

Here are some pics of the snow (or lack thereof) on the west side:

Leaving work, windswept downtown:

Our street. Not much at all, the last leaves actually just fell last week, with one tree in our neighbor's front yard still yellow!

Downtown as viewed from Lake Erie, (I actually stepped in the water to take this!)

[michsnowfreak]

There was essentially no accumulation at all today both downtown, at home, and at CLE. Truly amazing considering it was frequently 1/2 mile visibility. Looks like CLE picked up 0.4" for the day. I had an additional 0.2". Amazing to think you can go 10 miles and have over a foot on the ground!

The wind is the killer. Been snowing constantly here, though not with such low visibility, but definitely heavier than flurries. Weve had small 0.1" dustings from time to time, but the wind literally sweeps the water-less snow away.

[Trent]

The wind is the killer. Been snowing constantly here, though not with such low visibility, but definitely heavier than flurries. Weve had small 0.1" dustings from time to time, but the wind literally sweeps the water-less snow away.

Check out these obs, we've got a whopping 0.8" since yesterday afternoon.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/obhistory/KBKL.html

Been consistently gusting in the 35-40mph range.

[Trent]

I think CLE needs an inland Cuyahoga County and coastal Cuyahoga County break out for their warnings. They do it for Ashtabula County, it would make sense to do it for the most populated county in the state. There's no need to have LES snow warnings going for places that won't receive snow. With about half of the LES events effecting us at the shore and the other half not, it would definitely aid in providing a more accurate forecast. There was probably close to 600,000 people in the county who got less than an inch from this, and no forecast text, afd, or warning highlighted this at all.

[janetjanet998]

********************STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL********************

LOCATION STORM TOTAL TIME/DATE COMMENTS

SNOWFALL OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

OHIO

..ASHTABULA COUNTY

PIERPONT 2SE 19.5 800 PM 12/6

..GEAUGA COUNTY

BURTON 19.5 700 PM 12/6

..PORTAGE COUNTY

KENT 16.2 700 PM 12/6

..SUMMIT COUNTY

SAGAMORE HILLS 12.2 700 PM 12/6

..TRUMBULL COUNTY

NEWTON FALLS 11.0 700 PM 12/6

PENNSYLVANIA

..ERIE COUNTY

FRANKLIN CTR 18.3 700 PM 12/6

***********************SNOW ON GROUND***********************

LOCATION SNOW TIME/DATE COMMENTS

ON GROUND OF

(INCHES) MEASUREMENT

OHIO

..ASHTABULA COUNTY

PIERPONT 2SE 17.0 800 PM 12/6

WINDSOR 15.0 500 PM 12/6

ROAMING SHORES 12.0 700 PM 12/6

CONNEAUT I-90 4.0 600 PM 12/6

ASHTABULA 3.0 600 PM 12/6

ASHTABULA 1SW 3.0 800 PM 12/6

..CRAWFORD COUNTY

GALION 2.0 500 PM 12/6

NEW WASHINGTON 5S 1.0 600 PM 12/6

BUCYRUS T 800 PM 12/6

..CUYAHOGA COUNTY

CHAGRIN FALLS 9.0 700 PM 12/6

GARFIELD HTS 5.0 800 PM 12/6

BROADVIEW HTS 4.0 700 PM 12/6

CLEVELAND 3.0 500 PM 12/6

CLEVELAND 1.0 800 PM 12/6

CLEVELAND EDGEWATER 1.0 800 PM 12/6

CLE AIRPORT T 700 PM 12/6

..ERIE COUNTY

VERMILION 1.0 900 PM 12/6

..GEAUGA COUNTY

HAMBDEN TWP. 16.0 700 PM 12/6

MONTVILLE 15.0 500 PM 12/6

CHARDON 14.0 500 PM 12/6

BURTON 12.0 700 PM 12/6

CHAGRIN FALLS 12.0 700 PM 12/6

RUSSELL TWP 12.0 400 PM 12/6

CHARDON 11.0 600 PM 12/6

THOMPSON 5SW 11.0 800 PM 12/6

..HOLMES COUNTY

FRYBURG T 700 PM 12/6

..HURON COUNTY

NEW LONDON 3NW 1.0 600 PM 12/6

..LAKE COUNTY

CONCORD TWP. 7.0 700 PM 12/6

CONCORD TWP. 4.0 900 PM 12/6

MADISON 5 S 3.0 800 PM 12/6

MENTOR 1S LK 3.0 400 PM 12/6

MADISON 2.0 700 PM 12/6

MENTOR 2.0 900 PM 12/6

PERRY TOWNSHIP 2.0 900 PM 12/6

..LORAIN COUNTY

OBERLIN 3.0 800 PM 12/6

CARLISLE TWP 2.0 800 PM 12/6

..MAHONING COUNTY

AUSTINTOWN 7.0 800 PM 12/6

BOARDMAN SE 5.0 600 PM 12/6

..MEDINA COUNTY

HINCKLEY 10.0 800 PM 12/6

BRUNSWICK 8.0 700 PM 12/6

MEDINA 8.0 600 PM 12/6

BRUNSWICK 7.0 700 PM 12/6

BRUNSWICK 1NE 6.0 500 PM 12/6

..PORTAGE COUNTY

KENT 11.0 700 PM 12/6

..RICHLAND COUNTY

MANSFLD ARPT 1.0 700 PM 12/6

..STARK COUNTY

ALLIANCE 3.0 700 PM 12/6

MASSILLON/PERRY TWP. 2.0 900 PM 12/6

..SUMMIT COUNTY

BATH TWP 16.0 500 PM 12/6

TWINSBURG 12.0 800 PM 12/6

SAGAMORE HILLS 8.0 700 PM 12/6

CAK AIRPORT 5.0 700 PM 12/6

GREEN 3.0 500 PM 12/6

..TRUMBULL COUNTY

KINSMAN 13.0 700 PM 12/6

NEWTON FALLS 11.0 700 PM 12/6

MESOPOTAMIA 10.0 500 PM 12/6

YNG AIRPORT 10.0 700 PM 12/6

WARREN 7.0 600 PM 12/6

..WAYNE COUNTY

DOYLESTOWN 8.0 800 PM 12/6

WOOSTER 2.0 700 PM 12/6

WOOSTER 7N 1.0 500 PM 12/6

PENNSYLVANIA

..CRAWFORD COUNTY

BLOOMING VALLEY 4NE 26.0 800 PM 12/6

CROSSINGVILLE 2NE 24.0 600 PM 12/6

MEADVILLE 20.0 700 PM 12/6

CANADOHTA LAKE 18.0 800 PM 12/6

MEADVILLE 5W 18.0 700 PM 12/6

CONNEAUTVILLE 6SW 17.0 600 PM 12/6

..ERIE COUNTY

EDINBORO 22.0 800 PM 12/6

NORTHEAST 6SW 18.0 700 PM 12/6

FRANKLIN CTR 10.0 700 PM 12/6

LAKE CITY 7.0 900 PM 12/6

FAIRVIEW 6.0 700 PM 12/6

MILLCREEK TWP. 4.0 800 PM 12/6

ERIE AIRPORT 3.0 700 PM 12/6

[Trent]

I need to move. Heart break city seeing 7" just 3 miles south and nothing here.

[NEOH]

I need to move. Heart break city seeing 7" just 3 miles south and nothing here.

The lack of activity in this thread tells me a lot about what is happening back home

I've heard that the the Medina and Summit county areas have been the jackpot. Not surprising given the strong winds. Just took a look at the WRF and the winds are backing... don't give up yet. Tonight may be interesting if the winds can back enough. I'll be flying back into it from sunny and clear Chicago.

Edit: And yeah, you need to move to the eastside

[Speedskater]

I'm about 2 miles west of Trent and just 375 feet south of the lake. I think that 1/2 inch of snow total is all that's here. But the wind started blowing at 10 PM Saturday with only momentary dipped down to 20 MPH. I wish that the water crib's wind reading made sense. Maybe they are in Meters per Second.

[Trent]

I'm about 2 miles west of Trent and just 375 feet south of the lake. I think that 1/2 inch of snow total is all that's here. But the wind started blowing at 10 PM Saturday with only momentary dipped down to 20 MPH. I wish that the water crib's wind reading made sense. Maybe they are in Meters per Second.

Good to see you make it over to this new board! Virtually nothing but a coating along the lakeshore.

Did anyone else see that the crib temp off Cleveland is down to 41, 44 is normal for this time of year. That's critical, if we have an extended cold shot we could be looking at an early freeze over, or at least a significant damper on future LES events.

Even CLE did terrible with this event. Most of their snow came in a quick band this morning. My call of less than 3" for CLE is looking pretty good.

[OHweather]

Recieved 2.3" last night and 1.8" today, and am still seeing moderate bursts of snow. Storm total since Saturday night up to 19.6" here. Am expecting another 1-4" tonight and T-2" tomorrow here.

[NEOH]

This event was largely a bust for anyone near the lakeshore. Good call Trent. I truly am surprised given the lake/air differential. I still think there is potential later tonight as the bands across N MI have intensified greatly from earlier today. Hopefully that can translate southward. Just can't get good LES with such a limited fetch and strong winds unless you are way inland.