LES event 12/5-12/7 Ohio

[janetjanet998]

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH

532 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

.PERSISTENT LOW PRESSURE ACROSS NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN

CANADA WILL CAUSE COLD AIR TO FLOW ACROSS LAKE HURON AND LAKE

ERIE. AS MORE MOISTURE GETS WRAPPED INTO THE SYSTEM...LAKE EFFECT

SNOW SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP FURTHER AND SPREAD INLAND ACROSS

NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY

BECOME HEAVIER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. THIS PATTERN WILL

PERSIST THROUGH TUESDAY.

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-052100-

/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0002.101205T1200Z-101208T0000Z/

ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-

CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...

EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

532 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY.

A PRIMARY BAND OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL MAINTAIN ITSELF WITH A

FETCH FROM LAKE HURON TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. SIGNIFICANT LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY

EVENING...BETWEEN 1 AND 2 FEET OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE WHERE HEAVIER

SNOW BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY INCREASING

TO 15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 35 MPH. THE COMBINATION

OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND THE GUSTY WINDS WILL MAKE TRAVEL

DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO AT TIMES.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING ON TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO INTO

PENNSYLVANIA...BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME OR ALTER YOUR TRAVEL

ARRANGEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO

AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...AKRON...

RAVENNA...WARREN

532 AM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM EST THIS

AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY...LIKELY BECOMING

HEAVIER LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. LAKE EFFECT SNOW

IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY

EVENING...THERE IS THE POSSIBILITY FOR 10 TO 20 INCHES OF SNOW

WHERE THE HEAVIER SNOW BANDS SET UP ACROSS THE AREA. THERE STILL

IS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN WHERE THE HEAVIEST BANDS OF SNOW WILL SET

UP ACROSS THE AREA.

WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE DURING THE DAY TODAY INCREASING TO

15 TO 25 MPH WITH OCCASIONAL HIGHER GUSTS IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. THE

COMBINATION OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW AND THE GUSTY WINDS COULD

MAKE TRAVEL DIFFICULT AS VISIBILITIES BECOME REDUCED TO NEAR ZERO

AT TIMES.

[Trent]

Already a localized 12" report from Meadville, PA, with another report from the same area at 5 inches.

[NEOH]

Wish their were more members in NW PA for reports. Just occasional heavy snowshowers in NE OH. Bands are not all that organized at this point... probably due to the strong wind speeds. Things should become better organized this evening.

[janetjanet998]

quick aviation update from CLE

AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE THROUGH THE

ENTIRE PERIOD AND BEYOND. SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY FROM

LATE AFTERNOON OR EARLY EVENING AND THEN CONTINUE AS INSTABILITY

INCREASES. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR AND BRIEFLY LIFR ACROSS NORTHEAST

OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA INCLUDING KCLE...KYNG...KCAK AND KERI.

MAINLY MVFR AT WORST POINTS WEST. ALSO EXPECT WEST TO NORTHWEST

WINDS GUSTING INTO THE MID 20 KNOT RANGE THIS AFTERNOON AND

EVENING INCREASING TO POTENTIAL 30 KNOT GUSTS FROM THIS EVENING

ON.

OUTLOOK

PROLONGED PERIOD OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS AND

BREEZY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE SOUTHEAST OF LAKE ERIE SUNDAY

INTO WEDNESDAY.

[carumba]

Wish their were more members in NW PA for reports. Just occasional heavy snowshowers in NE OH. Bands are not all that organized at this point... probably due to the strong wind speeds. Things should become better organized this evening.

Yeah, snow has been falling all day here but there's relatively little to show for it on the ground.

[Trent]

Yeah, snow has been falling all day here but there's relatively little to show for it on the ground.

Yeah. I went to Beachwood mall and there's maybe a half inch more there than at home on the west shore. Seems like they've been in decent bands for the past few days. The strong winds hurt accums.

[janetjanet998]

CLE now under a warning

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...AKRON...

RAVENNA...WARREN

314 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

..LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS

NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST OHIO. A WIDESPREAD 2 TO 3 INCHES IS

POSSIBLE TONIGHT...WITH LOCALLY UP 5 INCHES POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY ALONG

THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF GEAUGA AND THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF

SUMMIT AND PORTAGE COUNTY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TOMORROW AND BEGIN TO

TAPER OFF TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN

EXCESS OF A FOOT OF SNOW. IN ADDITION WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO

25 MPH MAKING TRAVEL DIFFICULT...WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO AT

TIMES.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO

AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

OHZ014-089-PAZ001>003-060415-

/O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101208T0000Z/

ASHTABULA INLAND-ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-

CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JEFFERSON...ASHTABULA...ERIE...

EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

314 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY...

LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS ACROSS

NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. A WIDESPREAD 4...WITH

LOCALLY UP 8 INCHES OF NEW SNOW IS POSSIBLE BY THE MORNING RUSH

HOUR. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL BE ALONG THE RIDGE LINES AWAY FROM

THE LAKE. LAKE EFFECT SNOW WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY EVENING. BY

TUESDAY EVENING SOME AREAS WILL SEE IN EXCESS OF 2 FEET OF SNOW.

IN ADDITION WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 25 MPH MAKING TRAVEL

DIFFICULT...WITH VISIBILITIES NEAR ZERO AT TIMES. IF YOU ARE

PLANNING ON TRAVELING THROUGH NORTHEAST OHIO INTO

PENNSYLVANIA...BE SURE TO ALLOW EXTRA TIME OR ALTER YOUR TRAVEL

ARRANGEMENTS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

[OHweather]

CLE left nothing to the imagination in their afternoon AFD:

999

fxus61 kcle 052042

afdcle

Area forecast discussion

National Weather Service Cleveland Ohio

342 PM EST sun Dec 5 2010

Synopsis...

a large trough will remain over the Great Lakes through middle week.

&&

Near term /until 6 am Monday morning/...

added the secondary snowbelt counties in this mornings watch to

the warning area. Judging from a couple of snow reports from

Richland and Medina counties this afternoon snow not as bad as

radar might indicate. Do expect snow to increase during the

overnight hours with a widespread 1 to 3 across the central

Lakeshore counties and 4 to 6 over northwest PA. Of course there

will be higher amounts along the higher elevations of the warning

area.

No GFS data today because of comms problems. Stayed close to NAM

met data for overnight lows.

&&

Short term /6 am Monday morning through Tuesday Night/...

Lake effect snow will continue into Tuesday evening with northwest

flow over the area. Actually snow is expected to expand and increase

tomorrow as a secondary trough swings across the forecast area.

Blowing and drifting of snow could also become a problem tomorrow

on with sustained winds of 15 to 25 miles per hour with higher gusts.

Things should start tapering off from the west Tuesday afternoon as

the upper ridge builds in. Left likely probability of precipitation for Tuesday night but

snow amounts should be much lighter.

[Trent]

That CLE discussion is pathetic. This will be an inland event for sure. If CLE gets more than 3" I will be surprised.

[OHweather]

That CLE discussion is pathetic. This will be an inland event for sure. If CLE gets more than 3" I will be surprised.

I tend to agree, on both points. With the flow going more WNW by tomorrow there are some hints a primary band may form over northern Lorain/Cuyahoga/northern Summit/southern Geagua/northern Portage into Trumbull counties, although that might miss you to the south with a northerly component to the wind. How much have you got there thus far, half an inch or so?

[Trent]

I tend to agree, on both points. With the flow going more WNW by tomorrow there are some hints a primary band may form over northern Lorain/Cuyahoga/northern Summit/southern Geagua/northern Portage into Trumbull counties, although that might miss you to the south with a northerly component to the wind. How much have you got there thus far, half an inch or so?

Just a half inch. The point forecast actually doesn't call for much either. It might be possible that we don't even get any accumulation at all. I suppose anything that falls will be a bonus. CLE is in that transition zone between shore and secondary snow belt, they may cash in on the band that develops from Lorain County through northern summit.

[NEOH]

Pretty sad we have our own thread for this since there are probably 5 or fewer members impacted.

CLE's radar is down and the WRF has not been updated in days. Amazing that office is even open. The government should just shut the office down to save money... but I digress. I'm really not sure what is going to happen.You get no help from the AFD... pure rip and read crap.

Someone is going to get hammered over the next few days... but clearly an upstream connection will be necessary due to the limited fetch. The higher winds speed will tend to favor the highest elevations... unusual locations like Medina and Summit count y will do well.

Still intermittent snow showers here. Hopefully things can get more organized overnight. I'm still liking the potential for a single band to develop for a brief time.

[carumba]

Pretty sad we have our own thread for this since there are probably 5 or fewer members impacted.

CLE's radar is down and the WRF has not been updated in days. Amazing that office is even open. The government should just shut the office down to save money... but I digress. I'm really not sure what is going to happen.You get no help from the AFD... pure rip and read crap.

Someone is going to get hammered over the next few days... but clearly an upstream connection will be necessary due to the limited fetch. The higher winds speed will tend to favor the highest elevations... unusual locations like Medina and Summit count y will do well.

Still intermittent snow showers here. Hopefully things can get more organized overnight. I'm still liking the potential for a single band to develop for a brief time.

CLE is smoking something. They put Lake Effect Snow Warnings up at 4pm then took them down 45 minutes later and replaced with what they had earlier, a Lake Effect Snow Watch. Seriously, what is going on at that office?

[OHweather]

CLE is smoking something. They put Lake Effect Snow Warnings up at 4pm then took them down 45 minutes later and replaced with what they had earlier, a Lake Effect Snow Watch. Seriously, what is going on at that office?

The warning's still up, it never showed up on the NOAA page or CLE's page because of some sort of communication issues.

[Trent]

If you look at the BUF WRF, it really doesn't show anything getting going in Greater Cleveland until mid morning tomorrow. From little blips of radar that show up from CLE, doesn't appear to be much of anything going on in the region now. Patience is going to be a virtue with this one. But it's spitting out ridiculous amounts of QPF along the Cuyahoga/Geauga border, with a sharp cut off.

Remember that huge LES storm (8-12") that we were supposed to get early in January of this year, it was on Friday the 8th following a light synoptic snow? They kept the warnings going and going, and finally dropped them when nothing developed. I think someone in northern Medina might have maxed out at 3" from the storm.

[dta1984]

If you look at the BUF WRF, it really doesn't show anything getting going in Greater Cleveland until mid morning tomorrow. From little blips of radar that show up from CLE, doesn't appear to be much of anything going on in the region now. Patience is going to be a virtue with this one. But it's spitting out ridiculous amounts of QPF along the Cuyahoga/Geauga border, with a sharp cut off.

Remember that huge LES storm (8-12") that we were supposed to get early in January of this year, it was on Friday the 8th following a light synoptic snow? They kept the warnings going and going, and finally dropped them when nothing developed. I think someone in northern Medina might have maxed out at 3" from the storm.

What kind of ridiculous amounts is it showing? I think that is near me somewhat.

[Trent]

What kind of ridiculous amounts is it showing? I think that is near me somewhat.

This is mostly from a dominant band that develops from about 6pm -10pm tomorrow night. I'm not sure how accurate these models are though.

[dta1984]

O wow that looks nice

[carumba]

This is mostly from a dominant band that develops from about 6pm -10pm tomorrow night. I'm not sure how accurate these models are though.

Wow, crushes SW Geauga, that's me.

[Trent]

Wow, crushes SW Geauga, that's me.

And we finally have a decent band developing! Looks pretty good from central Lake County into NE Geauga and Trumbull. I wonder how long that one will last?

[OHweather]

We have a decent multi-lake connection developing now, with moderate snows making it into the Detroit area then re-intensifying over Lake Erie...there is no sign of this connection ending anytime soon as we try to wrap in some mid level moisture and lift with the retrograding upper low:

As mentioned above, looks like a good amount of moisture wrapping in with the upper low, should help seed lake effect on all the lakes overnight tonight through Monday night:

Also, CLE's updated warning is MUCH more consistent with the forecast, much more detailed, really need more mets like this guy and Lombardy in CLE on shift during these types of events:

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY

OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES CAN

BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER

HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. RAPID CHANGES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS

AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF

TRAVELING OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY.

THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL OVER

INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MORE THAN A FOOT OF

SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE MEADVILLE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4

TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN BOTH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. LOCAL

AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FOOT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8

INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS MONDAY

NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BETWEEN TWO AND

THREE FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS

NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. BUT...

EVEN THE CITY OF ERIE COULD HAVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY TUESDAY.

IN NORTHEAST OHIO...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO

BE OVER LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES. A BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL HAS

ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA. OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS

OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE

EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THE

HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN END

OF THE COUNTY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY WILL SEE NO

MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. TRUMBULL...PORTAGE AND

SUMMIT COUNTIES WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALL ACROSS THE

NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DROP OFF

SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW

CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE WARNING AREA WITH

SIMILAR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW

LOCATIONS IN GEAUGA AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES COULD HAVE UP TO TWO

FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY EVENING.

REMEMBER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE. ACCUMULATIONS

CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER JUST A FEW MILES. BE PREPARED FOR

RAPID CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIME. IN

ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER

GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME A

PROBLEM AS THE SNOW STARTS TO PILE UP.

[carumba]

We have a decent multi-lake connection developing now, with moderate snows making it into the Detroit area then re-intensifying over Lake Erie...there is no sign of this connection ending anytime soon as we try to wrap in some mid level moisture and lift with the retrograding upper low:

As mentioned above, looks like a good amount of moisture wrapping in with the upper low, should help seed lake effect on all the lakes overnight tonight through Monday night:

Also, CLE's updated warning is MUCH more consistent with the forecast, much more detailed, really need more mets like this guy and Lombardy in CLE on shift during these types of events:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH 836 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 OHZ011>014-021>023-089-PAZ001>003-060945- /O.CON.KCLE.LE.W.0002.000000T0000Z-101208T0000Z/ CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL- ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON... JEFFERSON...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE... EDINBORO...MEADVILLE 836 PM EST SUN DEC 5 2010 ...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY... A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND AND INTENSIFY OVERNIGHT. LOCALLY HEAVY SNOWFALL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES. SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER BANDS. RAPID CHANGES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE EXPECTED. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW OVERNIGHT WILL LIKELY FALL OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA. MORE THAN A FOOT OF SNOW HAS ALREADY FALLEN IN THE MEADVILLE AREA WITH AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED OVERNIGHT IN BOTH ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FOOT CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVERNIGHT. AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW IS EXPECTED ON MONDAY WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BETWEEN TWO AND THREE FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. BUT... EVEN THE CITY OF ERIE COULD HAVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY TUESDAY. IN NORTHEAST OHIO...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TONIGHT IS EXPECTED TO BE OVER LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES. A BAND OF INTENSE SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER THAT AREA. OVERNIGHT ACCUMULATIONS OF 4 TO 8 INCHES ARE LIKELY. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 6 INCHES ARE EXPECTED ELSEWHERE IN THE WARNING AREA. IN CUYAHOGA COUNTY THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS WILL BE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN END OF THE COUNTY. WESTERN PORTIONS OF CUYAHOGA COUNTY WILL SEE NO MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO OF SNOW OVERNIGHT. TRUMBULL...PORTAGE AND SUMMIT COUNTIES WILL SEE THE HEAVIEST SNOW FALL ACROSS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF THE COUNTY. ACCUMULATIONS WILL DROP OFF SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE SOUTH. AN ADDITIONAL 3 TO 6 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED ON MONDAY ACROSS ALL OF THE WARNING AREA WITH SIMILAR AMOUNTS POSSIBLE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN GEAUGA AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES COULD HAVE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY EVENING. REMEMBER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE. ACCUMULATIONS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER JUST A FEW MILES. BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIME.  IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL BECOME A PROBLEM AS THE SNOW STARTS TO PILE UP. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES. && $ KUBINA

I was just upstairs here at my place and I could hear the snow pelting down against our skylight, sounded like moderate rainfall, quite loud. It's awful outside now and the snow is starting to accumulate much faster than at any time since snow season began. Our snow plow guy is really going to earn his keep tomorrow!

[OHweather]

I was just upstairs here at my place and I could hear the snow pelting down against our skylight, sounded like moderate rainfall, quite loud. It's awful outside now and the snow is starting to accumulate much faster than at any time since snow season began. Our snow plow guy is really going to earn his keep tomorrow!

It hasn't got too heavy here except for a couple of bursts early this afternoon, but is coming down more consistently right now, and we have racked up 1.3" since this morning. Seems like we're getting grauple right now here and sounds like your having the same thing occur there, perhaps because there's so much instability over the lake?

[Trent]

The wind is just ripping here. Winds are gusting over 40 mph. Still doesn't look like much going on in Cuyahoga County yet, however latest NAM really lights things up tomorrow.

[Trent]

Through 1 am Tuesday from a locally run model at BUF:

[dta1984]

Still looks awesome. What kind of ratios will we be looking at?

[OHweather]

Just got about 5 minutes of near zero visibility here...radar is trying to fill over the lake, let's see if southern/eastern Cuyahoga county is high enough and inland enough to get some consistent snow out of this or if the best will be just a bit farther inland towards northern Medina/Summit/Geauga/Portage counties overnight:

[OHweather]

Medina county upped to a warning now through 7pm Tuesday:

MEDINA-

INCLUDING THE CITY OF...MEDINA

320 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CLEVELAND HAS ISSUED A LAKE

EFFECT SNOW WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST TUESDAY.

THE LAKE EFFECT SNOW ADVISORY IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

INTERVALS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

CONTINUE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL

PERSIST INTO TUESDAY. BY TUESDAY EVENING STORM TOTAL SNOWFALL

COULD REACH CLOSE TO A FOOT WHERE BANDS PERSIST.

IN ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH

HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. THIS WILL CAUSE BLOWING AND DRIFTING

OF THE SNOW.

REMEMBER LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE. LOCALLY HEAVY

SNOWFALL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITY CAN BE EXPECTED AT

TIMES...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN TWO THIRDS OF THE COUNTY.

SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR IN THE HEAVIER

BANDS. ACCUMULATIONS CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER JUST A FEW MILES.

RAPID CHANGES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD BE

EXPECTED. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO

AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

Here is the updated warning text for the other CLE counties:

CUYAHOGA-LAKE-GEAUGA-ASHTABULA INLAND-SUMMIT-PORTAGE-TRUMBULL-

ASHTABULA LAKESHORE-NORTHERN ERIE-SOUTHERN ERIE-CRAWFORD PA-

INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CLEVELAND...MENTOR...CHARDON...

JEFFERSON...AKRON...RAVENNA...WARREN...ASHTABULA...ERIE...

EDINBORO...MEADVILLE

320 AM EST MON DEC 6 2010

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY...

A LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 7 PM EST

TUESDAY.

LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TODAY. LOCALLY HEAVY

SNOWFALL WITH NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES CAN BE EXPECTED AT TIMES.

SNOWFALL RATES COULD APPROACH TWO INCHES PER HOUR WITH THE HEAVIER

BANDS. RAPID CHANGES IN DRIVING CONDITIONS AND VISIBILITY SHOULD

BE EXPECTED. USE EXTREME CAUTION IF TRAVELING OVERNIGHT AND

MONDAY.

ACROSS NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...THE HEAVIEST LAKE EFFECT SNOW

TODAY WILL FALL OVER INLAND PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA.

AN ADDITIONAL 4 TO 8 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN BOTH ERIE AND

CRAWFORD COUNTIES. LOCAL AMOUNTS OF UP TO A FOOT CANNOT BE RULED

OUT TODAY. AN ADDITIONAL 6 TO 10 INCHES OF SNOW IS LIKELY MONDAY

NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. SOME LOCATIONS COULD HAVE BETWEEN TWO AND

THREE FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY EVENING. LOCATIONS

NORTH OF INTERSTATE 90 WILL SEE LESSER AMOUNTS OF SNOWFALL. BUT...

EVEN THE CITY OF ERIE COULD HAVE UP TO A FOOT OF SNOW BY TUESDAY.

IN NORTHEAST OHIO...THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL TODAY IS EXPECTED TO BE

ACROSS SOUTHEAST CUYAHOGA COUNTY...NORTHERN SUMMIT...AND OVER

LAKE AND GEAUGA COUNTIES...WITH 6 TO 8 INCHES EXPECTED TODAY.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW FALL CAN ALSO BE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN

TRUMBULL AND PORTAGE COUNTIES. LAKE EFFECT SNOW BANDS WILL EXTEND

SOUTH INTO SUMMIT...PORTAGE...AND TRUMBULL COUNTIES...YIELDING

QUICK ACCUMULATIONS FROM BURSTS OF HEAVIER SNOW. AN ADDITIONAL 2

TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY IN THESE AREAS.

ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 9 INCHES IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT

THROUGH TUESDAY. A FEW LOCATIONS IN GEAUGA AND ASHTABULA COUNTIES

COULD HAVE UP TO TWO FEET OF SNOW ON THE GROUND BY TUESDAY

EVENING.

REMEMBER...LAKE EFFECT SNOW IS EXTREMELY VARIABLE. ACCUMULATIONS

CAN VARY SIGNIFICANTLY OVER JUST A FEW MILES. BE PREPARED FOR

RAPID CHANGES IN CONDITIONS AND ALLOW FOR EXTRA TRAVEL TIME. IN

ADDITION TO THE SNOW...NORTHWEST WINDS OF 15 TO 20 MPH WITH

HIGHER GUSTS CAN BE EXPECTED. BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL

BECOME A PROBLEM AS THE SNOW STARTS TO PILE UP.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IN LAKE EFFECT SNOW THE WEATHER CAN VARY FROM LOCALLY HEAVY SNOW

IN NARROW BANDS TO CLEAR SKIES JUST A FEW MILES AWAY. IF YOU WILL

BE TRAVELING ACROSS THE REGION BE PREPARED FOR RAPID CHANGES IN

ROAD AND VISIBILITY CONDITIONS. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO

AND OTHER RADIO AND TV STATIONS FOR FURTHER DETAILS OR UPDATES.

Am waiting for the updated AFD...in the mean time, snow bands still aren't terribly organized and are shifting around quite a bit, but with 2"+ per hour rates, the snow is piling up under them:

Looks like Trent should be getting hit good for now at least.

[Trent]

Looks like Trent should be getting hit good for now at least.

Nah. Just went outside, no more than a quarter to half inch of new snow.

[OHweather]

Nah. Just went outside, no more than a quarter to half inch of new snow.

Wow, that was an intense band when it got here, near white out conditions, it really is hard to get snow down there.