2010/12/05 12Z Guidance Discussion

[Ellinwood]

i was referring to the general set up...good luck with the gfs mos verifying as is for next sunday.

sorry...looks like others have filled in the gaps....anyway, that's at least 4 consecutive gfs runs with the ingredients for a wintry setup next sunday/monday for the dc area...while 12z not as intense or bombastic, still looks like whoever has 12-12 for the first dca inch contest is looking OK right now.

Perhaps a better wording would have been "I could see a similar setup to what the GFS is showing, but with colder air available for the D.C. area. This would get D.C. in the wintry weather." It sounded like you were banking on the GFS' solution to put snow in D.C.

That being said... northern trend

[TUweathermanDD]

tombo, where do you get your PBP updates from? You associated with the people at ECMWF? I get the full euro, so I could provide some good specifics for you guys if needed.

What i mean is, what is your source of getting the model so fast.

[ravensrule]

*post*

update! *edit post* *enter enter* *new sentence*

*done editing*

It takes one more second to hit the Edit Post button.

Let's also take into account that this exact stuff doesn't mean jack if the storm's this far out. I could understand the play-by-play posting if it's near-term (inside day 4), but in the mid-range the discussion should be a lot more focused on the synoptic changes and what could realistically happen via the dynamics versus the play-by-play of where the center of low pressure is.

This as well.

I hear what you are saying outside day 4 the play by play does not really mean jack s**t, but for real loser snow weenies like myself and others for whatever sick reason it still gets me excited hearing things trending the right way even 8 days out like in this case. Maybe both the synoptic changes and a play by play in 2 seperate threads would be a great idea this way people could go to whatever thread floats their boat.

[Ellinwood]

thats why i did it in regional thread, because my region likes the pbp. You should start one in your regional thread and do it your way

Do you at least get where I'm coming from when I discuss the insignificance of having a PBP of a d+7 event? It's gonna change on the next run anyway, so what's the point? IMO, a better post would be "the 198h shows a weaker southern jet than in the previous runs, which could hurt the rapid development that we need to draw in the cold air from the north to maximize snowfall potential."

[atownwxwatcher]

Tombo was asked to do what he does in the regional threads in the general forum. So he does what is asked and then a few cry out that they do not like what he is doing. However..yet I do not see one post from those few that are crying out attempt to analyze and describe what the 12 Z ECM was showing. So instead of crying out about it -why not step up to the plate and show what you would like to see instead?

Saying just because a run is going to change 12 hours later makes the details irrelevant is really not correct either. You look for consistencies in the models when it comes to each of the model runs whether it be 00z, 12z , 6z, or 18 Z. Some people do not understand what they are looking at if they were to "just go to the model page themselves" ..So..the play by play break down helps those people with less of an understanding.

The way some are making it seem they only want one post with details in it and that would be the post to start off the thread...In order to really make that happen then everybody else would have to stop posting ..other wise one would have to go back from page 3 or 4 to page 1 just to get to that post to edit and put in new information.

This is why regional threads for model runs are so much better then using the general forum because no one had an issue with the way it was done .Matter of fact people look forward to it.

[Ellinwood]

Tombo was asked to do what he does in the regional threads in the general forum. So he does what is asked and then a few cry out that they do not like what he is doing. However..yet I do not see one post from those few that are crying out attempt to analyze and describe what the 12 Z ECM was showing. So instead of crying out about it -why not step up to the plate and show what you would like to see instead?

Saying just because a run is going to change 12 hours later makes the details irrelevant is really not correct either. You look for consistencies in the models when it comes to each of the model runs whether it be 00z, 12z , 6z, or 18 Z. Some people do not understand what they are looking at if they were to "just go to the model page themselves" ..So..the play by play break down helps those people with less of an understanding.

The way some are making it seem they only want one post with details in it and that would be the post to start off the thread...In order to really make that happen then everybody else would have to stop posting ..other wise one would have to go back from page 3 or 4 to page 1 just to get to that post to edit and put in new information.

This is why regional threads for model runs are so much better then using the general forum because no one had an issue with the way it was done .Matter of fact people look forward to it.

I saw 7 posts in a row that have the PBP with no discussion in-between. That could have certainly been condensed. I do see the problem with having to go back to the OP to get updates, which is why my original suggestion said to group it in 3-7 updates per post.

And yes, I was about to go make a post in the Euro thread... I'm just taking a good look at things instead of just blurting stuff out so I can actually contribute worthwhile content to the thread.

[NJHurricane]

Tombo was asked to do what he does in the regional threads in the general forum. So he does what is asked and then a few cry out that they do not like what he is doing. However..yet I do not see one post from those few that are crying out attempt to analyze and describe what the 12 Z ECM was showing. So instead of crying out about it -why not step up to the plate and show what you would like to see instead?

Saying just because a run is going to change 12 hours later makes the details irrelevant is really not correct either. You look for consistencies in the models when it comes to each of the model runs whether it be 00z, 12z , 6z, or 18 Z. Some people do not understand what they are looking at if they were to "just go to the model page themselves" ..So..the play by play break down helps those people with less of an understanding.

The way some are making it seem they only want one post with details in it and that would be the post to start off the thread...In order to really make that happen then everybody else would have to stop posting ..other wise one would have to go back from page 3 or 4 to page 1 just to get to that post to edit and put in new information.

This is why regional threads for model runs are so much better then using the general forum because no one had an issue with the way it was done .Matter of fact people look forward to it.

I miss having the best analysts and those with early access to model output discussing them in one place, where general ideas of synoptic scale systems can be shared. I see no reason those that want it can't start out in this subforum as the models first come out, then break down back to our regional forums for further analysis.

Those that agree with the benefits I just described need to speak up.

[NJHurricane]

I saw 7 posts in a row that have the PBP with no discussion in-between.

that has always been a feature provided by those with early access to the Euro. First they give play by play, then all can analyze.

[atownwxwatcher]

I saw 7 posts in a row that have the PBP with no discussion in-between. That could have certainly been condensed. I do see the problem with having to go back to the OP to get updates, which is why my original suggestion said to group it in 3-7 updates per post.

And yes, I was about to go make a post in the Euro thread... I'm just taking a good look at things instead of just blurting stuff out so I can actually contribute worthwhile content to the thread.

That is all fine and dandy but the ECM run is now almost an hour over and majority of the people want to know what it is showing as it is coming out. This is not really all that different . At eastern people would post the images with the description of where it was at. Tombo instead focuses more on the play by play and as of late I have been the one providing the images so people can physically see what he is describing.

There is nothing wrong with full break down analysis of a model run- I am all for it etc but ...that is why there are regional threads and why there is a general forum. People do not want to wait till an hour after the model run is out to know what it is showing and saying...they want it as it comes out. Especially if there is any potential threat in the near future.

I remember times where I had to go to the SNE thread to find anything out about the Euro run...and most of the time it was hard to even get a breakdown for things if you were not in that region. The regional threads are working good the way he has been doing it.

In the General forum...why not just have a pro met start the thread and do analysis that way ..whether it be an hour after or as its coming out.?

[Inudaw]

I have no problems with the PBP that tombo does in the regional forums. He is catering the viewers request of that region. The general discussion should be more on the large scale discussion of the patterns shown... and is better suited to be based off the 0z and 12z model suits.

I'd like to look at it as this. "General forum." would be like the national.. and maybe even more broader than that... and look at global pattern discussions and discussing key features that could lead to potential areas of inclement weather.

Regional forums would then be the areas where more localized and detailed break down of said threats. Can be backed up by both global and regional model support as well as more fine details.. especially with in 72 to 120 hours out. ^^;

Its up to the region though if they want to worry about "Exact" details in the 144+ hour range.

[NJHurricane]

DT was in the chat room, says he will be there for this evening's 00z GFS when it comes out.

[usedtobe]

I miss having the best analysts and those with early access to model output discussing them in one place, where general ideas of synoptic scale systems can be shared. I see no reason those that want it can't start out in this subforum as the models first come out, then break down back to our regional forums for further analysis.

Those that agree with the benefits I just described need to speak up.

I agree as I don't have early access. I like the PBP when the weather is interesting.

[Ellinwood]

That is all fine and dandy but the ECM run is now almost an hour over and majority of the people want to know what it is showing as it is coming out. This is not really all that different . At eastern people would post the images with the description of where it was at. Tombo instead focuses more on the play by play and as of late I have been the one providing the images so people can physically see what he is describing.

There is nothing wrong with full break down analysis of a model run- I am all for it etc but ...that is why there are regional threads and why there is a general forum. People do not want to wait till an hour after the model run is out to know what it is showing and saying...they want it as it comes out. Especially if there is any potential threat in the near future.

I remember times where I had to go to the SNE thread to find anything out about the Euro run...and most of the time it was hard to even get a breakdown for things if you were not in that region. The regional threads are working good the way he has been doing it.

In the General forum...why not just have a pro met start the thread and do analysis that way ..whether it be an hour after or as its coming out.?

I never said he couldn't post stuff as soon as it comes out... just that he didn't need to make a new post for every single update.

I also agree on the "if there is any potential threat in the near future" part, but a week from now is not the near future. I feel sorry for people who want to know the exact information of a d+7 storm. I mean, I love severe weather just as much as you weenies love snow, but you don't see me posting model updates indicating the instability and shear of a system a week out. There's just no realism in that, just as there's no realism in worrying about where the low sets up or how deep it goes until we get to the point where the models might actually be able to handle it on a consistent basis.

[phlwx]

This is why regional threads for model runs are so much better then using the general forum because no one had an issue with the way it was done .Matter of fact people look forward to it.

I think the model discussion for each day should be regionalized in its own thread for all the runs from 0-18z on a daily basis (SNE 12/5, NYC/Philly 12/5) but that's just me. The subforums make it easier to discuss what's going on locally in someone's backyard and the impacts of the storm while not having inter-region squabbling breaking out or having IMBYist posts from Boone, NC, etc. in the main forum. I'm not sure having everything in one place works in a large forum...people will want to discuss what their local impacts are going to be and what they may/may not ultimately get.

There are enough folks on the board who have the faster maps who can break down the details in each of the regional discussion areas...you still end up with several folks battling it out to post the details first anyways.

[Ellinwood]

DT was in the chat room, says he will be there for this evening's 00z GFS when it comes out.

Ha ha, he yelled at me for posting the 18Z GFS snowfall maps for this storm yesterday... little did he know I was just trolling the weenies

[Ian]

Ha ha, he yelled at me for posting the 18Z GFS snowfall maps for this storm yesterday... little did he know I was just trolling the weenies

you shouldnt do things like that to Henry M.

[Srain]

The first trail of a General Forum Model thread has shown some areas that need to be addressed. In time we will find a way to appeal to everyone and not just the EC crowd. Remember, we are Americanwx.

[THEREALTOR1]

I miss having the best analysts and those with early access to model output discussing them in one place, where general ideas of synoptic scale systems can be shared. I see no reason those that want it can't start out in this subforum as the models first come out, then break down back to our regional forums for further analysis.

Those that agree with the benefits I just described need to speak up.

I was only on Eastern for a couple of years, but IIRC, weren't the model threads normally in the "General Weather" area, and then during the winter everyone would sort of break off and have their own discussions in their own "Regionals" after the model runs? That seems like how it was to me anyway, because you would get everyones' input for the first 30 - 60 min in the general forum, and then if anything was noteworthy for your particular area, you could get more detailed info by going back into your "regional". At least that's how I remember it.

[NJHurricane]

I was only on Eastern for a couple of years, but IIRC, weren't the model threads normally in the "General Weather" area, and then during the winter everyone would sort of break off and have their own discussions in their own "Regionals" after the model runs? That seems like how it was to me anyway, because you would get everyones' input for the first 30 - 60 min in the general forum, and then if anything was noteworthy for your particular area, you could get more detailed info by going back into your "regional". At least that's how I remember it.

To me ideally....I would get the input of a handful of posters who are good at analysis....Usedtobe,raleighwx, HM, earthlight, DonS etc....then after an hour or two disco would shift back to the regions. Also, to me ideally if we are to start off with model disco in this forum, it should be heavily moderated. analysis only, no lol, smileys, repeat posts etc.

[LVblizzard]

Ellinwood's quote from chat:

"Euro ENS looks much more like the GFS Op. in both the placement and timing"

[Chris L]

Ellinwood's quote from chat:

"Euro ENS looks much more like the GFS Op. in both the placement and timing"

Sounds like the ECMWF OP might be out to lunch here.

[LVblizzard]

Sounds like the ECMWF OP might be out to lunch here.

Not really sure about that. DT said it was still an Ohio Valley track, just not as extreme as the OP. I'm guessing the mean is like a compromise of both the Euro and GFS, slightly leaning towards the GFS.

[Dr No]

It's hard for me to believe that there would be such a strong storm cutting in the lakes with the NAO progged as-is. But, it all depends on where the NAO establishes itself (west vs. east) and how that effects the orientation of the PV around Hudson Bay.

I suspect you will see a few more runs of an amped up Euro/GGEM solution, then they will become flat or surpressed, with the real solution lying somewhere in the middle. Whether that is snow, ice, rain, or squat for 95, don't know, but it'll be a fun week to watch the models and reactions this week. Based on today's runs and the cold that is established in the east this upcoming week, I think there is a higher than usual chance of freezing or frozen precip next weekend.

[THEREALTOR1]

To me ideally....I would get the input of a handful of posters who are good at analysis....Usedtobe,raleighwx, HM, earthlight, DonS etc....then after an hour or two disco would shift back to the regions. Also, to me ideally if we are to start off with model disco in this forum, it should be heavily moderated. analysis only, no lol, smileys, repeat posts etc.

Yeah, there was alot of "banter" if I remember, but it usually got cleaned up rather quickly. I can see where its tough to have a "general model thread" with it affecting so many different regions at one time. You're gonna get knuckleheads who want to immediately claim "winter cancel" for their area based on 1 model run, when it could actually be a picture perfect model run for another member who happens to be in a different region. Then that trails off into a back-forth debate that just ends up ruining the thread. I'm sure the Mods and Pros will figure out something. It would be awesome to have a "quick reference go-to" during each run, and then if you want to get more detail you jump into your region. I know right now I basically skip the general, check out MA, and then head to NY/Philly to see what tombos' saying.

[csnavywx]

It's hard for me to believe that there would be such a strong storm cutting in the lakes with the NAO progged as-is. But, it all depends on where the NAO establishes itself (west vs. east) and how that effects the orientation of the PV around Hudson Bay.

I suspect you will see a few more runs of an amped up Euro/GGEM solution, then they will become flat or surpressed, with the real solution lying somewhere in the middle. Whether that is snow, ice, rain, or squat for 95, don't know, but it'll be a fun week to watch the models and reactions this week. Based on today's runs and the cold that is established in the east this upcoming week, I think there is a higher than usual chance of freezing or frozen precip next weekend.

This does NOT favor an east coast hit. It favors a cutter/OV track (definitely inland vs coastal). The block actually has a reason to move east this time, as opposed to the last couple of times the models tried to do so.

[Lee]

This does NOT favor an east coast hit. It favors a cutter/OV track (definitely inland vs coastal). The block actually has a reason to move east this time, as opposed to the last couple of times the models tried to do so.

Yeah, but those favorable SST's off Greenland are really helping that block stay established , i.m.o.. It makes me wonder that those suggesting a full blown Nina takeover pattern after December will be wrong because of this.

[csnavywx]

Yeah, but those favorable SST's off Greenland are really helping that block stay established , i.m.o.. It makes me wonder that those suggesting a full blown Nina takeover pattern after December will be wrong because of this.

The SST feedback alone will not keep a block in place, of course. Other factors, which up until this point, have been consistent in allowing it to stay there. That's not really the case anymore over the upcoming week.

[Lee]

The SST feedback alone will not keep a block in place, of course. Other factors, which up until this point, have been consistent in allowing it to stay there. That's not really the case anymore over the upcoming week.

Yeah, understand that,didn't say they WOULD keep but help . Yeah, sure enough resistence, oh yeah agree.

[Ellinwood]

ECM ens ended up lining up better with the ECM Op in the end... I still don't think that the pattern to favor the Euro Op solution has enough time to get its act together before the main system swings through.

But hey, I've only been doing this long-range stuff operationally for a year. DT's way up on me in that regard. I will definitely take his thoughts into account.

EDIT: I guess you could call my stance is that the trough over the eastern U.S. is "too big to fail."

[NJHurricane]

Yeah, there was alot of "banter" if I remember, but it usually got cleaned up rather quickly. I can see where its tough to have a "general model thread" with it affecting so many different regions at one time. You're gonna get knuckleheads who want to immediately claim "winter cancel" for their area based on 1 model run, when it could actually be a picture perfect model run for another member who happens to be in a different region. Then that trails off into a back-forth debate that just ends up ruining the thread. I'm sure the Mods and Pros will figure out something. It would be awesome to have a "quick reference go-to" during each run, and then if you want to get more detail you jump into your region. I know right now I basically skip the general, check out MA, and then head to NY/Philly to see what tombos' saying.

For general model threads to work again, members will have to leave their regionalism at the door and behave like adults. If on a particular run the data indicates that the biggest threat is for region A, that is the region that will receive a bit more attention discussion wise. Basically, once you feel like you have all the useful info you are going to get from the general forum, that should be your sign to head back to your region, at least participation wise.