2010/12/05 12Z Guidance Discussion

[tombo82685]

hr 192 has a sub 980 low just east of watertown,ny

[mdsnowlover]

so much for the euro and this snowstorm!!

[tombo82685]

hr 198 has a 976 low just over ny border into canada north of saranac lake

[Ellinwood]

i agree.. we're still trying to hash out this model thread thing with regions/etc, but unless someone's reading at the time an update a minute isnt terribly useful. i'd rather see the threads in the main forum more focused on analysis... why it is what it is, why it should be taken with a grain of salt etc.

I don't know what's worse... the fact that he's making all these posts, the fact that he's making all of these IDENTICAL posts in TWO threads, or the fact that I could beat him in posting the updates

[ravensrule]

i agree.. we're still trying to hash out this model thread thing with regions/etc, but unless someone's reading at the time an update a minute isnt terribly useful. i'd rather see the threads in the main forum more focused on analysis... why it is what it is, why it should be taken with a grain of salt etc.

I hate to disagree with you Ian but there are plenty of wackos like myself who read all the times especially at the times the gfs and euro come out so Tombo play by play is great.

[Ellinwood]

I hate to disagree with you Ian but there are plenty of wackos like myself who read all the times especially at the times the gfs and euro come out so Tombo play by play is great.

It still doesn't excuse Tombo from the fact that he can update one post 3-7 times and not spam each thread (as much).

[Ian]

I hate to disagree with you Ian but there are plenty of wackos like myself who read all the times especially at the times the gfs and euro come out so Tombo play by play is great.

feel free to disagree.. i dont think we have this figured out.

im just thinking that if i log in at 3 p.m. and want to get to meat it's tough with a 400 post thread full of half liners.

there's probably a place for both the question is if it's the same place i guess.

[tombo82685]

southern wis,mich, northern il and indiana are the winners in terms of snowfall, good snow event for them

[ravensrule]

I don't know what's worse... the fact that he's making all these posts, the fact that he's making all of these IDENTICAL posts in TWO threads, or the fact that I could beat him in posting the updates

Well if you can beat him why dont you help us out and beat him. I dont think knocking someone who for years has been the only one staying up late and giving us play by play of the 0z euro is very nice. You can gladly stay up until 2 am every night and post it the way you want but i have a feeling you dont want to do that.

[tombo82685]

I don't know what's worse... the fact that he's making all these posts, the fact that he's making all of these IDENTICAL posts in TWO threads, or the fact that I could beat him in posting the updates

please do so then, and i will focus on my area then. Randy asked me to post here so im trying, no one else who has euro acces has even posted here which isnt fair to me

[Bostonseminole]

southern wis,mich, northern il and indiana are the winners in terms of snowfall, good snow event for them

luckily it's still D8+

[tombo82685]

It still doesn't excuse Tombo from the fact that he can update one post 3-7 times and not spam each thread (as much).

then i will go back to my thread, i tried...

[ravensrule]

It still doesn't excuse Tombo from the fact that he can update one post 3-7 times and not spam each thread (as much).

To update the same post is a major pain in the ass while you are trying to get the info out as soon as possible. He would have to look through each time and find his post and start editing each time. I hear what you are saying but since the people on this board want the info the second it is available i do not know if there is a better way of doing things.

[mdsnowlover]

you can always bookmark raleighs weather page and view the ec when you like. If he wants to stay up till 2am in the morning , that;s his choice.Dont lambaste a met for expressing an intelligent choice of action.

[Ellinwood]

Well if you can beat him why dont you help us out and beat him. I dont think knocking someone who for years has been the only one staying up late and giving us play by play of the 0z euro is very nice. You can gladly stay up until 2 am every night and post it the way you want but i have a feeling you dont want to do that.

Because I don't spam and I follow "proper forum etiquette"

I wake up at 12:30am. I work 2:30am-11:30am. I could post like no tomorrow. But screw that noise if it means 500 one-liners. There's a reason why I lose interest in these big threads so easily... because there's too many posts!

[winter_warlock]

FWIW heres the latest for hpc 3-7 day...

[ravensrule]

then i will go back to my thread, i tried...

Please do not go back Tombo, i really value your quick updates for the Euro. Like i said in my earlier post you are the only one who is ever willing to do the Euro especially the 0Z. Keep up the good work. Thank you .

[ravensrule]

Because I don't spam and I follow "proper forum etiquette"

I wake up at 12:30am. I work 2:30am-11:30am. I could post like no tomorrow. But screw that noise if it means 500 one-liners. There's a reason why I lose interest in these big threads so easily... because there's too many posts!

So please give me your idea on how we can get the Euro updates right away while still conforming to your rules.

[Ellinwood]

So please give me your idea on how we can get the Euro updates right away while still conforming to your rules.

As I was saying: Just update one post multiple times. Cuts down on the clutter a lot, and it keeps the whole summary of the model run in one place, rather than having to weed through others' comments to catch the updates.

[ravensrule]

you can always bookmark raleighs weather page and view the ec when you like. If he wants to stay up till 2am in the morning , that;s his choice.Dont lambaste a met for expressing an intelligent choice of action.

You have some ingenious ideas but raleighs page does not have the Euro quickly like Tombo does. Just because you are not up then does not mean many of us are not who love the Euro info Tombo gives.

[mdsnowlover]

then i will go back to my thread, i tried...

dont give up so easily. There are several ways this could be done. Yours is one way. Why dont you keep doing it until somone tries it another!!!

[ravensrule]

As I was saying: Just update one post multiple times. Cuts down on the clutter a lot, and it keeps the whole summary of the model run in one place, rather than having to weed through others' comments to catch the updates.

Like i said in theory it is a good idea but trying to edit one post while you are doing rapid fire play by play is a major pain in the ass. Im sure if all the brighter minds here discuss it they can come up with something beyond my realm of thinking. But like has been stated numerous times, for the past 5 years Tombo has been the ONLY person with access willing to give us euro updates. If you are up then and willing i would love to hear your input especially because you are a Met. This way we can have your idea of the proper posting and get a Meteorologists input on the euro. That would be a double bonus .

[mdsnowlover]

why doesn't someone post raleights model page to start the euro thread???Only problem is that there isn;t any precip boundaries with the page. oh well just another solution.

[needbiggerboat]

Not quite...

DCA GFS MOS Guidance: 
	MON 06| TUE 07| WED 08| THU 09| FRI 10| SAT 11| SUN 12|MON CLIMO
N/X  26  39| 24  36| 23  36| 24  37| 30  46| 32  45| 32  46| 31 31 48

But I digress...

It'll be a hard time getting snow south of the MD/PA line if we can't lock any real cold air into place ahead of this system.

i was referring to the general set up...good luck with the gfs mos verifying as is for next sunday.

[Ian]

well one) the euro thread wasnt started here so it probably didnt need to be moved and im not sure tombo even realized it was moved. two) i think there are probably 2 different readers of model threads. i agree many want to see updates as they come out, but plenty others just want to see why people think the models are wrong/right.

i still think if we end up with 400 reply thread/s every 6 hrs it's unweildy.. so if people want to discuss stuff in the regionals too that's fine. maybe a move to a thread with play by play seperate from an analysis one would be the answer too. i dont really know i guess. i can read a model without a model thread and i can wait to see the euro if i have to so the audience who uses both often probably has compelling thoughts.

[Ellinwood]

Like i said in theory it is a good idea but trying to edit one post while you are doing rapid fire play by play is a major pain in the ass. Im sure if all the brighter minds here discuss it they can come up with something beyond my realm of thinking. But like has been stated numerous times, for the past 5 years Tombo has been the ONLY person with access willing to give us euro updates. If you are up then and willing i would love to hear your input especially because you are a Met. This way we can have your idea of the proper posting and get a Meteorologists input on the euro. That would be a double bonus .

*post*

update! *edit post* *enter enter* *new sentence*

*done editing*

It takes one more second to hit the Edit Post button.

Let's also take into account that this exact stuff doesn't mean jack if the storm's this far out. I could understand the play-by-play posting if it's near-term (inside day 4), but in the mid-range the discussion should be a lot more focused on the synoptic changes and what could realistically happen via the dynamics versus the play-by-play of where the center of low pressure is.

i still think if we end up with 400 reply thread/s every 6 hrs it's unweildy... i can read a model without a model thread and i can wait to see the euro if i have to so the audience who uses both often probably has compelling thoughts.

This as well.

[winter_warlock]

the latest from hpc regarding the storm next week.... not looking good....

only time will tell which one is right ... still a long way off

12Z GUIDANCE RUNS OF GFS/CMC/UKMET OFFER THREE ENTIRELY DIFFERENT

SOLUTIONS AND REINFORCE THE UNCERTAINTY OF PREVIOUS RUNS. UKMET

HAS VERY SIGNIFICANT MID LEVEL STREAM SEPERATION AT DAY 6 SAT MORE

SO THAN ANY OTHER MODEL OR PRIOR RUN IN THE SRN PLAINS WITH AN

UPSTREAM STRONG DIGGING UPPER LEVEL JET THAT WOULD IMPLY A MORE

N-NEWD MOVEMENT TAKING THE LOW WEST OF THE APPLACHNS AFTER DAY 7

SUN. CMC HAS ALSO GONE MUCH CLOSER TO THE 00Z ECMWF SOLUTION OF A

STRONG CENTRAL CONUS STORM LATE PERIOD AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HAS

12Z NAVY NOGAPS. MOST CONSISTENT IS THE GFS WHICH HAS A WEAKER

FLATTER DIGGING SHORTWAVE THAN ITS PRIOR RUN BUT REMAINS

REASONABLY CLOSE TO ITS 00Z AND 06Z SOLUTION AND ECMWF WHICH

CONTINUES ITS SOLUTION FROM 00Z.

[tombo82685]

*post*

update! *edit post* *enter enter* *new sentence*

*done editing*

It takes one more second to hit the Edit Post button.

Let's also take into account that this exact stuff doesn't mean jack if the storm's this far out. I could understand the play-by-play posting if it's near-term (inside day 4), but in the mid-range the discussion should be a lot more focused on the synoptic changes and what could realistically happen via the dynamics versus the play-by-play of where the center of low pressure is.

thats why i did it in regioanl thread, because my region likes the pbp. You should start one in your regional thread and do it your way

[Inudaw]

*post*

update! *edit post* *enter enter* *new sentence*

*done editing*

It takes one more second to hit the Edit Post button.

Let's also take into account that this exact stuff doesn't mean jack if the storm's this far out. I could understand the play-by-play posting if it's near-term (inside day 4), but in the mid-range the discussion should be a lot more focused on the synoptic changes and what could realistically happen via the dynamics versus the play-by-play of where the center of low pressure is.

Well Said Ellinwood. Would love to see more discussions relating to the synoptic situations in the models more than the details. Then would give much better insight on storm potentials than the exact "Surface" reflections shown on the models. Focus on the things that really matter at beyond the 5+ day area.

[Baroclinic Zone]

well one) the euro thread wasnt started here so it probably didnt need to be moved and im not sure tombo even realized it was moved. two) i think there are probably 2 different readers of model threads. i agree many want to see updates as they come out, but plenty others just want to see why people think the models are wrong/right.

i still think if we end up with 400 reply thread/s every 6 hrs it's unweildy.. so if people want to discuss stuff in the regionals too that's fine. maybe a move to a thread with play by play seperate from an analysis one would be the answer too. i dont really know i guess. i can read a model without a model thread and i can wait to see the euro if i have to so the audience who uses both often probably has compelling thoughts.

Thrown under the bus.