Dr No Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Brrr... Cold down through Florida Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Dr No, thank you for following procedure. We will be trying to get members to discuss the model runs in the general forum. This will make things easier to read for ALL members. We ask members to read the pinned announcement and follow through. Also, this thread is strictly for model analysis and discussion. All banter and cross talk will be removed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It looks like there will be nice trajectories over the lakes aimed at westrn MD and WV. Garret county is in a winter storm warning. I still think a stray flurry or two have a decent chance of l blowing across the mountains tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Essentially its GFS/DGEX vs GGEM/ECM from the last couple runs im assuming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 bump, so everyone knows we have one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 bump, so everyone knows we have one The PA group started their own. At 114 hours there is a low over WI. The associated 500h trough looks to be digging enough to make it interesting for New England down the road. Have to wait and see but I'd certainly be watching if I lived northeast of PHL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 at 132hr, snow breaking out most of NE.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 gfs doesnt look as good re the mecs threat i dont think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 132 hours the low is near SSM Michigan and the trough has not really dug that much. Looks like BOS and NYC have boundary layer issues. Not surprising with the low so far north. 850 temps are below freezing so those interested will have to look closely at the soundings to see how deep the above freezing temps get near the surface. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bostonseminole Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 132 hours the low is near SSM Michigan and the trough has not really dug that much. Looks like BOS and NYC have boundary layer issues. Not surprising with the low so far north. 850 temps are below freezing so those interested will have to look closely at the soundings to see how deep the above freezing temps get near the surface. OK, see that is why I don't do the analysis, I will let you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Looking at H5 at 168, the energy from the s/w that would be the storm in the 12-14th December time frame looks a little dampened compared to previous guidance. The trough is not allowing it to dig, and the flow is faster, causing a broader trough.. Need the trough to sharpen quickly if we want this thing to come up the coast, it might just be doable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 gfs doesnt look as good re the mecs threat i dont think low pressure over dare county at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Moderate snow Philly north at 177, 1004 low developing east of VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Radders Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 992 Low not far from the benchmark at 186. Trough tilting negative. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Even with the trough not digging as much this is still a good 3-6" or so for 40N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 At 156 hours there's a wave somewhere near mo or IL. It's kind of interesting as ridging has developed near the west coast. If that ridging moves east and the trough east of it continues to dig. Things could get interesting with the MO wave. Its acting sort of like a clipper with the low going into the OH valley by 168 hr before reforming off the east coast south of DC at 174 hrs. . The original track messes up the boundary layer temps making them on the warm side for dca. the trough is much less amplified than last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 low pressure over dare county at 174 plz try to be more specific in the future... i have (and im sure others as well) no clue where that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 plz try to be more specific in the future... i have (and im sure others as well) no clue where that is. Outer Banks, NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Boston getting hammered at 186-192, over 1"/hr rates with a 984 low just north of the benchmark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 classic Miller B that history shows will become more NE centric IOW, it will likely trend towards PHL, N & E system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LVblizzard Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Minor snow/ice event DC north at 276 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 classic Miller B that history shows will become more NE centric IOW, it will likely trend towards PHL, N & E system It will probably end up that way, but there has been some tendency for these things to dig on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The December 5th snow streak continues for Baltimore. At least with flurries today, that makes every year since 2002 our first storm or flakes - except leap years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 It will probably end up that way, but there has been some tendency for these things to dig on the models. at least we get some decent qpf later in the run...once the cold air is gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC Airport Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The December 5th snow streak continues for Baltimore. At least with flurries today, that makes every year since 2002 our first storm or flakes - except leap years! ok, but this is a model thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 plz try to be more specific in the future... i have (and im sure others as well) no clue where that is. Eastern NC! outerbanks. Here's a comparison between the GFS from 0^Z and today's with the trough. The evolution towards are miller b that doesn't do much for here and PHL is pretty much in keeping with the superensemble mean pattern and analogs. There also isn't a real 50 50 low to hold in the cold for us prior to the event. Hence the low level warming. If the model were correct, we could see the rain change to wet snow at the end of the storm but it wouldn't be a biggy. Last night's 500h that generated the exciting storm. Today's run. The one thing the system does have going for it is we almost pop and postive PNA for a short period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Minor snow/ice event DC north at 276 Yep, 850s way up in NY State. With the High where it is over Eastern Canada, one of two senarios look possible there. Either a solid CAD event with ice, or one of those front in over-running snow thumpings followed by a sleet/ice nightmare IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JustinBerk Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 ok, but this is a model thread. Yeah- but I like the fact that the trend began on schedule. As for the models... look at the south bias from last year and see if it continues. Last night's snow looked much farther north than the GFS projection for this clipper. The Canadian did was closer and tends to handle these shortwaves better. I'm just saying - in the east, watch that trend again. It did burn us or benefit us in Baltimore last year a few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Master of Disaster Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 The December 5th snow streak continues for Baltimore. At least with flurries today, that makes every year since 2002 our first storm or flakes - except leap years! The WRF has a lake effect band extending almost to Baltimore later today FWIW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted December 5, 2010 Share Posted December 5, 2010 Eastern NC! outerbanks. Here's a comparison between the GFS from 0^Z and today's with the trough. The evolution towards are miller b that doesn't do much for here and PHL is pretty much in keeping with the superensemble mean pattern and analogs. There also isn't a real 50 50 low to hold in the cold for us prior to the event. Hence the low level warming. If the model were correct, we could see the rain change to wet snow at the end of the storm but it wouldn't be a biggy. i guess i could have pulled up a map. but a ref we all know off the top of our heads would of course be simplest. thx for your analysis, wes. i think even with this solution not being as good as recent ones further south it's still good to see that there is *something* there. on that level at least it seems there might be some confidence growing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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