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E PA/NJ/DE/NE MD/Elko, NV : (Not During Storms) OBS Discussion/Banter Thread


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I pulled the numbers off the 8/10 0z GFS for KPHL - they are what they are. I don't know where you are that there's a mid-80s forecast for Saturday, yesterday KPHL was 78 or so, today Saturday looks like 81 with rain rolling in. It's looking better for you though - middle of next week looks a lot warmer than it did a couple of days ago. If you are keeping score, yesterday was a 0 again, so that's 1 positive, two neutral days so far... And yes, I understand how lame this discussion is, but there's nothing going on!

Mt Holly thats where :whistle:

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Nice to have the windows wide open this morning and to know I won't have to change shirts 3 times during yard work today. Also, good to know that thoughts of buying a snow blower are entering my mind. Blizzards will be here before you know it.:weight_lift:

Hit 49 degrees around 6AM this morning. Snowman.gif

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Well, you first posted Monday (+7) and yesterday was (0). Looking at the 0z GFS, today is -3, tomorrow -8, Friday -1, Saturday -7, Sunday -8, Monday -7. No guarantee it verifies, but it's the 3rd day advertising the cool down, so its a pretty good signal.

Wednesday was 0 and yesterday was -1. Overnight was 65 so unless we hit 90 today will be negative too. For those thinking about winter, GFS is verifying +4 throughout.

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By the way, peak persoid metoer shower tonight and the space station flyover PA.. i havent looked the last two nights for metoers, but maybe tonight. Anyhow, here's the Space station visibility times for tonight over the philly metro area. Apparently, it's large and bright enough to not be hidden by light pollution from the city and the moon:The numbers before the cardinal directions indicate where to look in the sky.. best time would seem to be 10:03EDT and looking towards the WSW sky. Anyone in the area outside of philly, look here:

http://spaceflight.nasa.gov/realdata/sightings/cities/region.cgi?country=United_States&region=Pennsylvania

ISSFri Aug 12/05:29 AM52711 above WNW11 above SSEISSFri Aug 12/08:30 PM< 11010 above SE10 above SEISSFri Aug 12/10:03 PM23010 above WSW30 above WSW

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now back to the rain threat:

p120i12.gif

12z qpf 5 day outlook:

GFS came in a bit wetter for eastern PA..the jackpot will go to anyone who can get some convective rain/storms...Any breaks in the sun could result in an isolated severe storms. hour 48 on the 12z GFS almost has a dry slot in central pa.. Maybe some breaks in the sun..18z Sunday:

gfs_pcp_054m.gif

Just something to keep an eye on. Obviously, this will be an mesoanalysis kind of day with now casting.

How Saturated will the column be?

GFS_3_2011081212_F48_40.0000N_75.0000W.png

All the way up to 200mb.. thats a soaker!(48hr 12z GFS-philly)

Notice the winds aloft aren't too strong (25-40kts?) so while the typical fall nor'easter has stronger winds to mix down strictly due to rain, doesn't seem like too much of a wind threat without any convction.

Also, notice the turning of winds. Not a full 90degree turn of winds, but enough, that any convection that forms with any cape/sunlight breaks could have a wind and an isolated tornado potential.

My call, widespread 1-3" with up to isolated 5" amounts possible with anywho jackpots under training convection.

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By the way, peak persoid metoer shower tonight and the space station flyover PA.. i havent looked the last two nights for metoers, but maybe tonight. Anyhow, here's the Space station visibility times for tonight over the philly metro area. Apparently, it's large and bright enough to not be hidden by light pollution from the city and the moon:The numbers before the cardinal directions indicate where to look in the sky.. best time would seem to be 10:03EDT and looking towards the WSW sky. Anyone in the area outside of philly, look here:

http://spaceflight.n...on=Pennsylvania

ISSFri Aug 12/05:29 AM52711 above WNW11 above SSEISSFri Aug 12/08:30 PM< 11010 above SE10 above SEISSFri Aug 12/10:03 PM23010 above WSW30 above WSW

Looks fairly low in horizion. I like this site and link:

http://www.heavens-above.com/PassDetails.asp?lat=40.391&lng=-75.493&loc=Pennsburg&alt=96&tz=EST&satid=25544&date=40768.086879375

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now back to the rain threat:

12z qpf 5 day outlook:

GFS came in a bit wetter for eastern PA..the jackpot will go to anyone who can get some convective rain/storms...Any breaks in the sun could result in an isolated severe storms. hour 48 on the 12z GFS almost has a dry slot in central pa.. Maybe some breaks in the sun..18z Sunday:

Just something to keep an eye on. Obviously, this will be an mesoanalysis kind of day with now casting.

How Saturated will the column be?

All the way up to 200mb.. thats a soaker!(48hr 12z GFS-philly)

Notice the winds aloft aren't too strong (25-40kts?) so while the typical fall nor'easter has stronger winds to mix down strictly due to rain, doesn't seem like too much of a wind threat without any convction.

Also, notice the turning of winds. Not a full 90degree turn of winds, but enough, that any convection that forms with any cape/sunlight breaks could have a wind and an isolated tornado potential.

My call, widespread 1-3" with up to isolated 5" amounts possible with anywho jackpots under training convection.

Great post. You should copy this to the heavy rain thread.

My basic thinking is, this is basically a summer Miller B. With an energy transfer, someone gets jackpotted, there's a dryslot, and a sharp cutoff between the two. The 18z GFS jackpots Point Pleasant, NJ or thereabouts with 4.51" of rain. yikes.png

18zgfsp72084.gif

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Great day here with temperatures in the upper 70s. Spent the weekend back on Long Island with my parents, got rocked by storms Sunday evening.

Looks like I missed some fun around here Sunday afternoon. :lightning:

As for Irene, I have never been a fan of "forecasting or predicting" the eventual track of tropical systems. I'd rather take a backseat :popcorn:.

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Since its "slowed" down around here for the next day or so thought I would share some pictures from last September 30ths rain event that I finally got around to uploading. Think there was anywhere from 5-8 inches over night not sure. This is Darby creek in lansdowne, delco. Mind you by the time the pictures/videos were taken the water had receded about a foot as you can see in some of the pictures. Highest I had seen that creek since Floyd and that was just.......yeah. I have to give credit to my brother for these though as I had to go to school that morning.

http://community.web...com/user/Boch23

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Since its "slowed" down around here for the next day or so thought I would share some pictures from last September 30ths rain event that I finally got around to uploading. Think there was anywhere from 5-8 inches over night not sure. This is Darby creek in lansdowne, delco. Mind you by the time the pictures/videos were taken the water had receded about a foot as you can see in some of the pictures. Highest I had seen that creek since Floyd and that was just.......yeah. I have to give credit to my brother for these though as I had to go to school that morning.

http://community.web...com/user/Boch23

Great photos. That rain event was a major mess on the Perkiomen Creek as well with 10-11" of rain here in Graterford. Major flooding that resulted in one death in Mont. Co. PA.

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