NaoPos Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 A very pleasant low 80's out with a nice little breeze. Took the oppurtinity to go for a yog. it's been way too hot to run outside this summer( to my comfort level at least). as for tomorrow night: mt. holly;s disco .SHORT TERM /6 AM TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY/... -- Changed Discussion --THE FRONT STALLS ACROSS THE DELMARVA BUT JUST TO OUR SOUTH BYTUESDAY MORNING. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONTAND TRAVERSES IT THROUGH THE DAY, MOVING ACROSS OR JUST TO OUR SOUTHTUESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AREEXPECTED TO ACCOMPANY THE LOW AS IT MOVES TOWARDS AND ACROSS THEAREA. THE LOW WILL THEN MOVE OFFSHORE WEDNESDAY MORNING, TAKING THEPREVIOUSLY STALLED FRONT AND ANY REMAINING ASSOCIATED SHOWERS WITHIT. THERE REMAINS THE CHANCE FOR SOME HEAVY RAIN TO FALL WITH ANYSTORMS THAT DEVELOP AS THE GUIDANCE CONTINUES TO SHOW PRECIPITABLEWATER VALUES AROUND 2 TO 3 INCHES ON TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL BEMONITORED AND WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THE THREAT FOR FLASHFLOODING IN THE HWO FOR NOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 SPC's Day 2 see text to go with it. ...TN VALLEY INTO MID ATLANTIC STATES... A COMPLEX SURFACE PATTERN MODULATED BY CONVECTIVE OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES MAY BE IN PLACE DURING THE MORNING AS SEVERAL MCS/S ARE FORECAST BY MODELS TO BE MOVING ACROSS THE MIDDLE MS VALLEY/MID SOUTH AND THE UPPER OH VALLEY. THESE SYSTEMS WILL ADD UNCERTAINTY TO THE OUTLOOK BY IMPACTING SUBSEQUENT DIABATIC HEATING/DESTABILIZATION DURING THE AFTERNOON AND WILL LIMIT SEVERE POTENTIAL IN SOME AREAS. HOWEVER...THERE WILL BE DOWNSTREAM REGIONS THAT UNDERGO ENHANCED DESTABILIZATION...AND GIVEN MODERATELY STRONG MID LEVEL WINDS /30-40 KT AT 500 MB/ FROM THE TN VALLEY INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION...SUFFICIENT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE PRESENT TO ENHANCE CONVECTIVE STORM STRUCTURES AND INTENSITY. STRONGER STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND OCCASIONAL HAIL MAINLY FROM THE LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING HOURS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Well, I guess I will not have worry about my .25 inch- no rain fell. The Mt Holly office states this in their forecast "New rainfall amounts between a tenth and quarter of an inch, except higher amounts possible in thunderstorms" Why should I not wish for more rainfall. Mt Holly thinks so. I guess you are stating that Mt. Holly's forecast is crappy? The bolded text above is always added to the Point and Click forecast with the QPF when thunderstorms are in the forecast. That is part of the software. Since we have little skill with QPF forecasting associated with convection, that wording is added to say that higher amounts can occur with thunderstorms. And, I did not get from his comment that he thinks our forecast is crappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The bolded text above is always added to the Point and Click forecast with the QPF when thunderstorms are in the forecast. That is part of the software. Since we have little skill with QPF forecasting associated with convection, that wording is added to say that higher amounts can occur with thunderstorms. And, I did not get from his comment that he thinks our forecast is crappy. Thanks for your response Mike. By the way, can the point and click software actually determine the timing of frontal passage and make the appropriate changes to the forecast? It has been so long since we had a drastic back door front or significant cold front which passes through in the early morning hours- earlier or later than expected-- just curious. How often is the software updated? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PennMan Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Had a pretty good storm this evening around 6:45-7PM. Only lasted 10-15 minutes but dropped 0.49" of rain and had some decent wind gusts. Knocked down several sunflowers and pepper plants in the garden and broke off some small limbs around the neighborhood. Drove through 4-6" of muddy water for over 300 yards on my way home from work as the water drained off already saturated cornfields. Not that I enjoyed that or anything... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Thanks for your response Mike. By the way, can the point and click software actually determine the timing of frontal passage and make the appropriate changes to the forecast? It has been so long since we had a drastic back door front or significant cold front which passes through in the early morning hours- earlier or later than expected-- just curious. How often is the software updated? The Point and Click software runs off of the NDFD grids which is put together by the NWS forecasters. We run a script everytime the forecast is updated to upload the new grids to the servers. This then updates the Point and Click. If the details of a significant wind shift is put into the grids, then the Point and Click wording should reflect the forecasted wind shift. There are limitations though with the software, but overall the wording is not bad. I am not sure how often the actual software is updated as it is maintained at National Headquarters and not locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 The Point and Click software runs off of the NDFD grids which is put together by the NWS forecasters. We run a script everytime the forecast is updated to upload the new grids to the servers. This then updates the Point and Click. If the details of a significant wind shift is put into the grids, then the Point and Click wording should reflect the forecasted wind shift. There are limitations though with the software, but overall the wording is not bad. I am not sure how often the actual software is updated as it is maintained at National Headquarters and not locally. Thanks. It would be really neat if the point and click software could also follow the dopplar radar as precip falls across the area, the forecast is updated with decreasing or increasing chances of precip and is updated so your forecasted Qpf was more accurate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Thanks. It would be really neat if the point and click software could also follow the dopplar radar as precip falls across the area, the forecast is updated with decreasing or increasing chances of precip and is updated so your forecasted Qpf was more accurate. Trying to put us out of work? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Trying to put us out of work? Never would dream of that. Just trying to find ways to make your warnings for heavy snowfall/ice/sleet more precise and be able to issue flood warnings more quickly as examples. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Mike, while you're in this thread.... let's see how well you do on my Sporcle quiz: How many AFD abbreviations can you name? http://www.sporcle.com/games/RyKahn/afd-abbreviations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Never would dream of that. Just trying to find ways to make your warnings for heavy snowfall/ice/sleet more precise and be able to issue flood warnings more quickly as examples. We have other methods for issuing those products, so no worries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Mike, while you're in this thread.... let's see how well you do on my Sporcle quiz: How many AFD abbreviations can you name? http://www.sporcle.c...d-abbreviations 99/124. I should have known some of the ones I missed, but not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted August 9, 2011 Author Share Posted August 9, 2011 can't wait to trurn off the AC this week and open windows for some 50's??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Rain just started....amazing how nice it was just 2 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Rain just started....amazing how nice it was just 2 hours. Finally some decent moderate rain. Parsley, looks like a lot of rain coming your way. Cannot wait to open the windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 0.50" and counting here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
johnc Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Can we blame the NOAA Weather Radio outage on the Verizon union gorillas? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FUCK JOE BIDEN Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.2" total, 4 storms have rolled through with a 10-15min break between......cycle soak for the ground to absorb lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.57 in drexel hill so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.07" thus far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.01" on the day so far. I haven't been home, except for when I stopped in at 1:30, at which time I had 0.51". The radar estimate storm total rainfall is almost half an inch to low for me.... I'd be curious to hear from Yes Probably Maybe No or BucksCoPA to see if our obs jive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 .98 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard92 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.07in of rain here today after 5.45in of rain the other night with terrible flash flooding, just wonderful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Parents had 0.70" in Ewing from round one. Waiting to see if round two makes it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 So far today I have picked up 1.18" of rain. I am ready for some cool temps! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Rather nasty cell about to enter W-B. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 Tony, Mike et al. Got some borderline flash flooding from a storm over Ocean City, NJ today. Captured this video at 2nd Street & Corinthian Avenue, to correspond with the report I gave to the office this afternoon. We had a few cars with water damage on the street as a result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chubbs Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.77 total today. Most since spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.22" for the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted August 9, 2011 Share Posted August 9, 2011 1.96 per davis vp 2 2.00 per cocorahs rain guage here in drexel hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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