Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I just hope the greedy sonuvabitches that keep praying for 40+ inch winters year after year in locations that average 15-25 inches per year. Don't jump off the bridge when the "old fashion winters return". *Not to offend anyone, but the truth is the truth* I don't think hoping for an extra 10-20 inches of snow over the normals in SE PA is asking for alot, you make it sound like we are praying for 100 inches every year. Now, people who think 50+ inches can happen year after year in these neck of the woods definetely need a reality check. Myself, I'm content with 30-40 inches (roughly 10-15 inches over the average). Honestly, I can't complain one bit with last winter (roughly 40 inches). I bet most people in SE PA/S NJ would sign up for that any year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'm gonna go on record and rain on your parade with the fact that since 1885, there has never been three winters in a row with more than 40" at PHL. There has only been one occurrence of three winters in a row with 30" or more at PHL. That was nearly 100 years ago. Since 1950, the 4 times when La Nina repeated itself, the highest seasonal snowfall was 23.0", the lowest was 12.2", and the average was 17.5". So could you get a three-peat? Sure. But the odds are strongly against it. Mother Nature lately is defying the odds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 This type of setup will lead to training thunderstorms with heavy bursts of rain. I see many smaller tribs under flash flood warnings in our area and places that are susceptible flash flooding hopefully should be taking precautions now. I see emergency evacuations possible in those areas. What really bothers me is that many storm sewer grates will be covered with leaf debris. For some reason, many leaves have fallen early. The groundwater table may also come up again, thus a basement watch should be issued Friday. Posted 20 September 2011 - 12:34 AM I would agree with your concern. Major river flooding does not appear to be a problem but the secondary tributaries look to be in real trouble. I would expect a flash flood watch to be in effect by Thursday afternoon for most of the area with localized flash flooding to be the emphasis in the wording for streams such as the Perkiomen, Neshaminy, Little Lehigh etc. The soil profile is still saturated and any prolong storm event of 3-4 inches will be just as bad as a seven inch rain in our area. You might as well consider it the same as it raining on frozen soils where 100% impervious occurs. After 1.5 inches, all of the precip thereafter will runoff. FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAYAFTERNOON...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MOUNT HOLLY HAS ISSUED A* FLOOD WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN DELAWARE...NORTHEAST MARYLAND...NEW JERSEY AND PENNSYLVANIA...INCLUDING THE FOLLOWING AREAS...IN NORTHERN DELAWARE...NEW CASTLE. IN NORTHEAST MARYLAND...CECIL. IN NEW JERSEY...CAMDEN...EASTERN MONMOUTH...GLOUCESTER...HUNTERDON...MERCER...MIDDLESEX... MORRIS...NORTHWESTERN BURLINGTON...SALEM...SOMERSET...SUSSEX... WARREN AND WESTERN MONMOUTH. IN PENNSYLVANIA...BERKS... BUCKS... CHESTER...DELAWARE...LEHIGH...MONTGOMERY... NORTHAMPTON AND PHILADELPHIA.* FROM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY AFTERNOON* PERIODS OF RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GROUND REMAINS WET FROM THE HEAVY RAINS THAT OCCURRED EARLIER THIS MONTH AND ARE LIMITED IN THEIR ABILITY TO ABSORB MUCH RAINFALL. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL TOTALS OF ONE TO THREE INCHES MAY OCCUR THROUGH SATURDAY WITH LOCAL FOUR INCH AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.* IMPACTS FROM THE FLOODING WILL INCLUDE...SMALL STREAM FLOODING, ROAD AND BASEMENT FLOODING. LARGER RIVERS MAY BE ABLE TO TAKE THE RAINFALL WITH OUT SUBSTANTIAL FLOODING, BUT THEY MAY RUN HIGH AND POSSIBLY APPROACH FLOOD STAGE IF HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS OCCUR.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...A FLOOD WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING BASED ONCURRENT FORECASTS.YOU SHOULD MONITOR LATER FORECASTS AND BE ALERT FOR POSSIBLEFLOOD WARNINGS. THOSE LIVING IN AREAS PRONE TO FLOODING SHOULD BEPREPARED TO TAKE ACTION SHOULD FLOODING DEVELOP. Thanks Mt Holly Nice write up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Mother Nature lately is defying the odds. Just remember that can go both way... and you might end up with a trace of snow this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Just remember that can go both way... and you might end up with a trace of snow this winter. Don't make me break out the crying image again. Honestly, if people are that bent out of shape for snow, take a weekend trip in December or January to western or northern NY. It's less than 6 hours for most and you're nearly guaranteed what you need. I spent 4 years in the 80"-100" zone and it literally snowed every other day during the winter. Maybe not huge snowfalls, but consistent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 latest HPC map has significant changes. Moves the heaviest precip S & E, and the area gets 1.5-3". More east, less west, and falls in line with Walt's thoughts yesterday that any trend in the QPF field would likely be east and not west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Just remember that can go both way... and you might end up with a trace of snow this winter. It depends on the blocking, that seems to overpower the ENSO lately. In my area I've had as little as a couple inches of snow to over 80 during the winter, but if blocking is there we usually do okay. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
easternsnowman Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Don't make me break out the crying image again. Honestly, if people are that bent out of shape for snow, take a weekend trip in December or January to western or northern NY. It's less than 6 hours for most and you're nearly guaranteed what you need. I do plan on moving to northeaster PA in a few years. I spent 4 years in the 80"-100" zone and it literally snowed every other day during the winter. Maybe not huge snowfalls, but consistent snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslotted Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Just remember that can go both way... and you might end up with a trace of snow this winter. I'd actually be OK with this as long as there is not a constant parade of model teases that disappear in the short term. I seem to remember 2008-2009 being like that, with the exception being the early March storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I don't think hoping for an extra 10-20 inches of snow over the normals in SE PA is asking for alot, you make it sound like we are praying for 100 inches every year. Now, people who think 50+ inches can happen year after year in these neck of the woods definetely need a reality check. Myself, I'm content with 30-40 inches (roughly 10-15 inches over the average). Honestly, I can't complain one bit with last winter (roughly 40 inches). I bet most people in SE PA/S NJ would sign up for that any year. So you're saying your CONTENT with getting above average snows every season? You honestly believe that is going to be even possible yearly? I mean all it takes is one big 1-2 foot storm to bring areas down in Sepa above average for the year. How could anyone in Southeast Pa, or along the Coast complain about any winter the past few years? I think the problem is, when you get to much of a good thing year after year, it starts to become expected. When things flip, people will be frustrated, i guarantee. Once again, not starting an argument, just bringing a valid discussion to the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 latest HPC map has significant changes. Moves the heaviest precip S & E, and the area gets 1.5-3". More east, less west, and falls in line with Walt's thoughts yesterday that any trend in the QPF field would likely be east and not west. I hadn't followed what the HPC was saying yesterday or last night...GFS and EURO were pretty well locked in on this for a while... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I hadn't followed what the HPC was saying yesterday or last night...GFS and EURO were pretty well locked in on this for a while... IIRC the 3z SREFS also guided in a similar fashion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 So you're saying your CONTENT with getting above average snows every season? You honestly believe that is going to be even possible yearly? I mean all it takes is one big 1-2 foot storm to bring areas down in Sepa above average for the year. How could anyone in Southeast Pa, or along the Coast complain about any winter the past few years? I think the problem is, when you get to much of a good thing year after year, it starts to become expected. When things flip, people will be frustrated, i guarantee. Once again, not starting an argument, just bringing a valid discussion to the table. No, I'm content WISHING for 35-40 inches a year not GETTING 35-40. At this stage in my life, snow is not that important. Trust me, you won't hear me whining over 20 inches of snow for the season. I don't know who here is complaining about the past few winters, atleast no one in this subforum that I am aware of who live in SE PA or Jerz. I can only speak for myself though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Don't make me break out the crying image again. Honestly, if people are that bent out of shape for snow, take a weekend trip in December or January to western or northern NY. It's less than 6 hours for most and you're nearly guaranteed what you need. I spent 4 years in the 80"-100" zone and it literally snowed every other day during the winter. Maybe not huge snowfalls, but consistent snow. Les is an awesome phenomena sure, and is still rather hard to forecast. But in reality,Synoptic weather events are far more interesting and far greater to look forward to occurring and forecasting. Keep In mind, some of the areas that average 100-200 inches of annul snowfall in that area, probably 50% is occurring from les. Take away those lakes, and the averages would easily drop by half if not more in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Les is an awesome phenomena sure, and is still rather hard to forecast. But in reality,Synoptic weather events are far more interesting and far greater to look forward to occurring and forecasting. Keep In mind, some of the areas that average 100-200 inches of annul snowfall in that area, probably 50% is occurring from les. Take away those lakes, and the averages would easily drop by half if not more in some areas. Well, if you are living up there (as I did) all I cared about was LES, lake water temps. and wind trajectory. Winters up there, you sort of live in your own bubble and block out the Nor'Easters that rock the East Coast b/c most of the time, they have little impact on what falls that far west. Another great thing about LES (nearly all the time) no precip-type issues to stress over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 No, I'm content WISHING for 35-40 inches a year not GETTING 35-40. At this stage in my life, snow is not that important. Trust me, you won't hear me whining over 20 inches of snow for the season. I don't know who here is complaining about the past few winters, at least no one in this subforum that I am aware of who live in SE PA or Jerz. I can only speak for myself though. Ok then. Well in that case i'm Content with wishing for every year to be 80+ in my area, not like it hasn't happened before up here. It just isn't reality and is a wish. Your right though, snow is not as important as you age. Although, when you go year after year with receiving blah storms, and barely reach your yearly average, as a weather enthusiast it completely sucks lol. The only people complaining are people out in Central Pa, and Nepa obviously. My point is, there is valid reason to be complaining about the type of winters we have been receiving compared to what is the norm, thats all. All in all, I would take a 2002-2003 2009-2010 winter any day! That way everyone gets creamed. The past few seasons Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Ok then. Well in that case i'm Content with wishing for every year to be 80+ in my area, not like it hasn't happened before up here. It just isn't reality and is a wish. Your right though, snow is not as important as you age. Although, when you go year after year with receiving blah storms, and barely reach your yearly average, as a weather enthusiast it completely sucks lol. The only people complaining are people out in Central Pa, and Nepa obviously. My point is, there is valid reason to be complaining about the type of winters we have been receiving compared to what is the norm, thats all. All in all, I would take a 2002-2003 2009-2010 winter any day! That way everyone gets creamed. The past few seasons Ok. I hope you get 100" this year. I'll take 25". Actually, I'll take 0" is someone wants to pay my oil heating bills this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Ok then. Well in that case i'm Content with wishing for every year to be 80+ in my area, not like it hasn't happened before up here. It just isn't reality and is a wish. Your right though, snow is not as important as you age. Although, when you go year after year with receiving blah storms, and barely reach your yearly average, as a weather enthusiast it completely sucks lol. The only people complaining are people out in Central Pa, and Nepa obviously. My point is, there is valid reason to be complaining about the type of winters we have been receiving compared to what is the norm, thats all. All in all, I would take a 2002-2003 2009-2010 winter any day! That way everyone gets creamed. The past few seasons New York disagrees quite a bit with this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Well, if you are living up there (as I did) all I cared about was LES, lake water temps. and wind trajectory. Winters up there, you sort of live in your own bubble and block out the Nor'Easters that rock the East Coast b/c most of the time, they have little impact on what falls that far west. Another great thing about LES (nearly all the time) no precip-type issues to stress over I can completely understand where you are coming from with the les bubble idea, and it must be awesome to witness. I actually have a buddy from when I was in the army that lives up in Rochester. He told me all the stories as a kid with the les up there. Although he basically lives right on the lake front, and don't receive anywhere near the amounts that alittle farther downwind and off the lake shore, it's still and awesome area to live in i'm sure. As for the nor'easters, I was going to say the same thing. That area typically tends to be to far west to have significant impacts on that area. Even app cutters are cutting it close for that area. So all in all, when you have les to rely on for your seasonal snows and your talking 100+ inches, I guess who cares. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 New York disagrees quite a bit with this. lol, They already think 40+ inch winters should be their average! That is one area, especially after last season that could get a reality check! lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 So all in all, when you have les to rely on for your seasonal snows and your talking 100+ inches, I guess who cares. Yeah a place like Niagara Falls that often see the shaft with LES ends up with roughly 50-60 inches of snow a year. So without those lakes I'd wager most of western NY would average closer to 25-50 inches of snow in a winter. Quite a difference from the map posted earlier. Ok, I'm done talking about an area not even in our subforum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Ok. I hope you get 100" this year. I'll take 25". Actually, I'll take 0" is someone wants to pay my oil heating bills this winter You know what though, it's not even that i wish to see an average or above average season. My true complaint has been toward, not receiving any substantial sized storms this far northwest the past couple of years. I think alot of people, and even alot of people in the Mt holly cwa that are located pretty far west can also agree on that one. All in all, like last winter, I managed to squeak 4 inches above my seasonal average. How that happened is beyond me lol. The year prior was just downright amazing. 2009-2010 My area recieved rougly 80 inches for the season. 30 inches alone came in a one week period! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You know what though, it's not even that i wish to see an average or above average season. My true complaint has been toward, not receiving any substantial sized storms this far northwest the past couple of years. I think alot of people, and even alot of people in the Mt holly cwa that are located pretty far west can also agree on that one. All in all, like last winter, I managed to squeak 4 inches above my seasonal average. How that happened is beyond me lol. The year prior was just downright amazing. 2009-2010 My area recieved rougly 80 inches for the season. 30 inches alone came in a one week period! I wouldn't care if it didn't snow at all the rest of the winter, just give me 18" of snow in 2 days and I'll be happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I wouldn't care if it didn't snow at all the rest of the winter, just give me 18" of snow in 2 days and I'll be happy. I usually say the same thing, give me one or two biggies and whatever else, is what it is. As long as It's close to average who cares. It's quite funny to hear all the old tymers talk about when they were growing up. "We just don't get storms like we use to" they say. "I remember getting 2-3 feet of snow in one storm". Although, alot of that I think comes from child perception of what you believe you see, rather then what is fact. Because if you look back at records, you surely dont see storms that produced storms of 2-3 feet on "average" around this area lol. It always gave me a good chuckle, I just nod my head and continue on. It's not worth telling an old tymer the truth. What they know is right, and is the only way to go about it. (atleast in thier world). lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NortheastPAWx Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 You know what though, it's not even that i wish to see an average or above average season. My true complaint has been toward, not receiving any substantial sized storms this far northwest the past couple of years. I think alot of people, and even alot of people in the Mt holly cwa that are located pretty far west can also agree on that one. Heh yeah...it's a bit amazing how we have had like 6 HECS in the last two winters and we keep missing them. We went 2/4 in the 2009-10 run and 0/2 in 2010-11. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 FYI, i guess we should be discussing snow in the winter 2011-2012 thread. My bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I wouldn't care if it didn't snow at all the rest of the winter, just give me 1.8" of snow in 2 days and I'll be happy. fixed, to make it realistic in terms of elko weather Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I wouldn't care if it didn't snow at all the rest of the winter, just give me 18" of snow in 2 days and I'll be happy. ray, does it make you angry that some of us had your top 3 snowiest days inches wise, in one hour in the jan 26-27 storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 ray, does it make you angry that some of us had your top 3 snowiest days inches wise, in one hour in the jan 26-27 storm? I'm pretty sure he got an 8" storm towards the end of the season. Now stop picking on li'l Ray! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'm pretty sure he got an 8" storm towards the end of the season. Now stop picking on li'l Ray! thats why i said top 3, cause his 2nd greatest storm was prob like 2.5 inches lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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