Quakertown needs snow Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
al79philly Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 We could actually make a run at this being the second rainiest month in Philadelphia ever, behind the longstanding record set back in August 2011. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisNJ Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Could we please save some of this precip for the winter? Damn, more dreary days ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Based on what I can see on my accuwx pro ECMWF 12z model run.. 1.75"-2.5" (closer to 2.5" over NJ, closer to 1.75" over I-81 corridor) thru 240 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 doesn't look good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 good read on the most recent AFD in the Hydrology section. Looks like we'll need to have our guard up again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 im going to go on the record and say this. You know whats going to happen in winter. We are getting all this precip now, its bound to be cold and dry during winter. When we do get precip it will be assoc with a warm up and rain with a cutter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 im going to go on the record and say this. You know whats going to happen in winter. We are getting all this precip now, its bound to be cold and dry during winter. When we do get precip it will be assoc with a warm up and rain with a cutter. I was thinking that same thing earlier today to myself too... that would really suck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 22, 2011 Author Share Posted September 22, 2011 im going to go on the record and say this. You know whats going to happen in winter. We are getting all this precip now, its bound to be cold and wet during winter. When we do get precip it will be assoc with a cold shot and snow with a coastal. this is my thinking also, awesome :snowman: :snowman: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 im going to go on the record and say this. You know whats going to happen in winter. We are getting all this precip now, its bound to be cold and dry during winter. When we do get precip it will be assoc with a warm up and rain with a cutter. Yes Tombo I agree with your synopsis but it will not be as dry as you think. I see more cold with some snow on the ground for a significant time- too cold to melt. Remember in 1995, wet summer and fall and look what happened in January of 96. I see us getting a significant ice storm though with this emerging pattern. I just hope we do not get 5-7 inches in the next three days. I do not want any more water in my basement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Yes Tombo I agree with your synopsis but it will not be as dry as you think. I see more cold with some snow on the ground for a significant time- too cold to melt. Remember in 1995, wet summer and fall and look what happened in January of 96. I see us getting a significant ice storm though with this emerging pattern. I just hope we do not get 5-7 inches in the next three days. I do not want any more water in my basement. Lol honestly, i was just messing around. So far despite the mod la nina which typically would suck for us, i think the teleconnections are going to line up in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Lol honestly, i was just messing around. So far despite the mod la nina which typically would suck for us, i think the teleconnections are going to line up in our favor. I'm gonna go on record and rain on your parade with the fact that since 1885, there has never been three winters in a row with more than 40" at PHL. There has only been one occurrence of three winters in a row with 30" or more at PHL. That was nearly 100 years ago. Since 1950, the 4 times when La Nina repeated itself, the highest seasonal snowfall was 23.0", the lowest was 12.2", and the average was 17.5". So could you get a three-peat? Sure. But the odds are strongly against it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 3peat! I'd be shocked. I'll bet the under (30"). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I'm gonna go on record and rain on your parade with the fact that since 1885, there has never been three winters in a row with more than 40" at PHL. There has only been one occurrence of three winters in a row with 30" or more at PHL. That was nearly 100 years ago. Since 1950, the 4 times when La Nina repeated itself, the highest seasonal snowfall was 23.0", the lowest was 12.2", and the average was 17.5". So could you get a three-peat? Sure. But the odds are strongly against it. well it depends on what someone expects. If you expect 40 inches this year thats pretty gutsy. But i think avg snowfall would be fine with ppl esp in a mod la nina where we avg 12-15. Im not getting hung up on what happens in the past. Last winter, a la nina winter phl never saw a storm greater than 10 inches, that failed. Every winter forecast basically failed. No one would of thought phl would get 20 inches of rain in the month of august. Point being, till it actually occurs and winter is over and what has fallen has fallen i don't get hung up on forecasts and analogs because things can change so eaily, hence last yr with that ridiculous -nao Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 well it depends on what someone expects. If you expect 40 inches this year thats pretty gutsy. But i think avg snowfall would be fine with ppl esp in a mod la nina where we avg 12-15. Im not getting hung up on what happens in the past. Last winter, a la nina winter phl never saw a storm greater than 10 inches, that failed. Every winter forecast basically failed. No one would of thought phl would get 20 inches of rain in the month of august. Point being, till it actually occurs and winter is over and what has fallen has fallen i don't get hung up on forecasts and analogs because things can change so eaily, hence last yr with that ridiculous -nao Granted, some weird things have happened, certainly. Just remember though that the law of averages will not be denied. You all will pay for it eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Granted, some weird things have happened, certainly. Just remember though that the law of averages will not be denied. You all will pay for it eventually. yea i know, this streak of above normal snowfall is going to come to an end, its just when? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Just remember though that the law of averages will not be denied. You all will pay for it eventually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Now that I've made some of you cry, I'll go back to collecting data for the seasonal snowfall map now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mgerb Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Granted, some weird things have happened, certainly. Just remember though that the law of averages will not be denied. You all will pay for it eventually. Well, unless the averages are changing . We can hope that 40" winters become the norm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Now that I've made some of you cry, I'll go back to collecting data for the seasonal snowfall map now... I was going to save that image for the 1st snowstorm bust of the season......oh well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Well, unless the averages are changing . We can hope that 40" winters become the norm ...and I can hope to get transferred to Mt. Holly tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 ...and I can hope to get transferred to Mt. Holly tomorrow. I forgot how bitter you get when it snows back east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I forgot how bitter you get when it snows back east I miss foot+ storms, I really really do... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 0z NAM prints out 1.5-1.75 tops throughout the region, through 84. Most in Southeast Jersey and down towards BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 I miss foot+ storms, I really really do... Meh, the older I get the less I need the big snows. Sure, Give me one +12" snowstorm in a winter, otherwise, I'm content with 3-6 inch events that bring a seasonal total to 30-40. I enjoy the snow sticking around for days or weeks, just as much as a big storm dropping 12+. Last year was a good example of that. Now, if we end up with 10 inches of snow for the winter, then I'll be unhappy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
famartin Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Meh, the older I get the less I need the big snows. Sure, Give me one +12" snowstorm in a winter, otherwise, I'm content with 3-6 inch events that bring a seasonal total to 30-40. Ha! I haven't seen a +12" snowstorm in nearly 8 years... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 yea i know, this streak of above normal snowfall is going to come to an end, its just when? Yeah and hopefully when the flip happens, us northern folks will translate back to a normal winter. I can honestly say, I think in the past decade here in my part of the poconos, we have received Maybe 5-6 snowfalls above 12 inches? When I was growing up, it was normal to get at least one if not several 12+ snowfalls in Nepa per season. Now it's like beating a dead horse, trying to pull one Mecs in my area per season. It is mighty painful to watch areas 30-40 miles to your east get back to back 12+ snowfalls several years in a row. In an area that Normally doesn't see such a thing in multiple winters, let along back to back seasons. I'm sorry, but all good things must come to an end. When something that isn't normal last for so long, it eventually has to flip. I just hope the greedy sonuvabitches that keep praying for 40+ inch winters year after year in locations that average 15-25 inches per year. Don't jump off the bridge when the "old fashion winters return". *Not to offend anyone, but the truth is the truth* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
r-ville Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 As I view current conditions via the SPC Meso, I see the 850mb transport system favoring the 95-coastal areas more so than the interior regions. PWAT of 2+ centered around the Carolina's border should be able to board the rain bus heading in this general direction. The positively tilted trough and its associated front not making any progress once it hits the coast in what appears to be the gensis of a decent if not well defined Omega block pattern. Convection currently firing off the Fl coast is always worrisome to downstream interests in this type set up as well. One thing that "relatively" spares the interior of PA (as in my region) could be that the Atl HP is pressing into the southeast and forcing the juice to take a west alternate route as opposed to a classic firehose. None the less, SKEW-T shows a very saturated column at all levels and decent lapse rates especially Friday to mid day Saturday. http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~gadomski/compskwframe0z.html Then there's the whole Sun-Wed/Thurs problem that is looking too close to what we saw with Lee for my comfort - as the trough once again digs and the ULL has still not budged a whole lot. Enter a TC from the east and, well............... I'll leave that alone (for now). While by no means certain to unfold, it bears watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 Granted, some weird things have happened, certainly. Just remember though that the law of averages will not be denied. You all will pay for it eventually. 4 out of the last 5 winters in my area have been below normal with snowfall (not widely so) but still below normal(50") is normal... hopefully that means I'll get a big winter to even it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 22, 2011 Share Posted September 22, 2011 0z NAM prints out 1.5-1.75 tops throughout the region, through 84. Most in Southeast Jersey and down towards BWI. What about that big red spot in E PA? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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