Parsley Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks to me like scattered rains the next few days with a chance for localized flooding at most if things come together just right late in the week as the moisture from the SE gets drawn north around the base of the trough. No widespread flooding, or atleast I don't think so at this point. Just my $0.02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Was it more localized or was it widespread? I guess those events make the early parts of the mth a blur to me, and I couldn't find the daily rainfall totals to compare. Thanks. I'd say it was pretty widespread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks to me like scattered rains the next few days with a chance for localized flooding at most if things come together just right late in the week as the moisture from the SE gets drawn north around the base of the trough. No widespread flooding, or atleast I don't think so at this point. Just my $0.02 yea i agree. This kind of rain is going to be a steady persistent rain instead of the fire hose we had with lee. The ffg values are pretty absorbant. If we can keep 3 inches or less we should be fine with a couple areas flooding...once 4 icnhes or more widespread wouldn't be good especially if we get t storms that can dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 9z srefs, still far out in time but is looking like the euro in terms of the mean with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wederwarrior Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 To me this looks like another one for the Jersey contingent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mforty Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks like it's going to be a miserable ride for Bike to the Bay from Dover to Cape Henlopen this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks like it's going to be a miserable ride for Bike to the Bay from Dover to Cape Henlopen this year... Very unexpected for the month of September, usually one of the nicest months of the year. PHL climo shows 8 days with measurable rain in the first 20 days. Cloud cover has been more cloudy than clear as well. CLEAR (SCALE 0-3) 2 PTCLDY (SCALE 4-7) 14 CLOUDY (SCALE 8-10) 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DerekZ Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 12z/20 NAM spits out almost 4" for PHL through 84 hours, with most of that falling in a 6 hour period on Friday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder Road Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 9z srefs, still far out in time but is looking like the euro in terms of the mean with more to come. Interesting to note than the NMM members are consistently dry, the ETA members are consistently wet, and the RSM and ARW members both show rather high levels of variability within their suite. For that reason I wouldn't use the mean yet - the mean is never a good tool when you have camps in (somewhat) drastic opposition. I'm curious to see how the SREFs evolve, if the NMM gets wetter, the ETA gets drier, or what? And does it happen quickly, or does on suite bust badly by holding on to the end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Any updates on what the 12z data shows now that all the data is in? with regards to potential for heavy rain.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 just saw the 12z euro total preciptation forecast on accuwx pro site (so I can't post it) but has almost all of E PA in the 3-4" of rain.. That is total for the entire 240 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Just through Saturday on the Euro (cropped image from SV) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eastonwx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 21.88 inches since August 1st (not including today's rain) here in Martins Creek Northampton County Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 this weather has been awful since the beginning of August, way too many cloudy days and rain when this time period usually offers the sunniest blue skies of the year..this crap needs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 newest hpc outlook Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 this weather has been awful since the beginning of August, way too many cloudy days and rain when this time period usually offers the sunniest blue skies of the year..this crap needs to go Yeah, pretty sad. Looks unkind the next 7-10 days in terms of sunshine too. Maybe by the end of NEXT week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SmokeEater Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here's the NAM total precip out to 36. Gonna be awful wet down here, ugh. Shows close to 2 inches tomorrow alone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 Here's the NAM total precip out to 36. Gonna be awful wet down here, ugh. Shows close to 2 inches tomorrow alone. 6z completely backs down on the heavy blob for later today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I can't believe how unsettled (or untranquil) the 00z Euro is right through next Friday. This September has been a major letdown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 The NAM has a rogue tropical storm hitting us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 21, 2011 Author Share Posted September 21, 2011 The NAM has a rogue tropical storm hitting us. 1,2 punch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rib Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's not on other data so I'm not buying it. It seems confused in this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 It's not on other data so I'm not buying it. It seems confused in this pattern. I son't think its tropical in origin i think its just a low that forms a long the stalled front and rides right up it. the nam has the most pronounced low pressure but other models have it. Heres the cmc 12 hr precip and you can see it brings a slug of very hvy rain right up the coast like the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I haven't seen any postes on the 0z euro ensembles or 0z euro op.. what are the rain totals looking like? 9z srefs, still far out in time but is looking like the euro in terms of the mean with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I haven't seen any postes on the 0z euro ensembles or 0z euro op.. what are the rain totals looking like? from now till wednesday..euro has 3-4 inches for all de, half of cester county right up to abe then up the del river on east, then cuts east just north of i80 in jerz...the rest of the area is 2-3 inches. I don't have access to precip amts on the euro ens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jrodd321 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I son't think its tropical in origin i think its just a low that forms a long the stalled front and rides right up it. the nam has the most pronounced low pressure but other models have it. Heres the cmc 12 hr precip and you can see it brings a slug of very hvy rain right up the coast like the nam Much broader area of rain on the CMC. NAM is more confined to just Jersey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 I think most models are hitting on an "enhanced period" of rain at some point Friday. Magnitude and location of where it sets up, still in question.I'd put my $$$ near and east of I-95 at this point which means most of our posting area is under the gun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 New QPF forecast from HPC http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/qpf/p120i12.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 We have seen this before, it looks much more like we will see convective bursts of heavy precip, and most areas will likely see breaks, which would limit the flooding threat. If more of a "fire hose" scenario begins to show up in the models, then its time to worry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 21, 2011 Share Posted September 21, 2011 We have seen this before, it looks much more like we will see convective bursts of heavy precip, and most areas will likely see breaks, which would limit the flooding threat. If more of a "fire hose" scenario begins to show up in the models, then its time to worry. This type of setup will lead to training thunderstorms with heavy bursts of rain. I see many smaller tribs under flash flood warnings in our area and places that are susceptible flash flooding hopefully should be taking precautions now. I see emergency evacuations possible in those areas. What really bothers me is that many storm sewer grates will be covered with leaf debris. For some reason, many leaves have fallen early. The groundwater table may also come up again, thus a basement watch should be issued Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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