ChescoWx Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 AM Low 45.7 Congrats to the greatest sustained successful team in Philly sports history - The Phils!! 5 straight NL East Championships! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 AM Low 45.7 Congrats to the greatest sustained successful team in Philly sports history - The Phils!! 5 straight NL East Championships! That's not saying much, since we are talking about "Philly" sports history............ Anyway, a beautiful 68 degrees and sunny at noon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quakertown needs snow Posted September 19, 2011 Author Share Posted September 19, 2011 down to 68 in the house...*almost* had to turn on the heat. my wife caved while i was away all day into the evening on saturday and turned on the heat, whimp Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PoconoSnow Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I wont be touching the heat for a bit still.Although I like it ice cold when i'm sleeping. I cant stand a house above 65. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Looks like we better enjoy tomorrow.......rather unsettled the rest of the week. Hopefully no prolonged rainy periods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 i think it would be able to handle that amount. 0z euro cut back on the precip 1-2 for the region Is the latest Euro still on for 1-2 inches? Is this te usual time when the fronts start blowing through with just a small shower ? 1-2 inches is not little. If the fronts are hanging up now, boy are we in store for some overrunning ice storms potentials this late fall /early winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Looks like we better enjoy tomorrow.......rather unsettled the rest of the week. Hopefully no prolonged rainy periods. Wednesday has the potential to be a warm day...watch out for it. Could be a sleeper. High clouds move in early Tuesday AM and Tuesday is cloudy/showery with a warm front--but most guidance has us blowing clear of the front by Wednesday AM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 gfs has it, but not as much as the euro The GFS has shown a dry bias lately, so it's possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Analog96 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 my wife caved while i was away all day into the evening on saturday and turned on the heat, whimp LOL I won't be going anywhere near the heat for at least another month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 Wednesday has the potential to be a warm day...watch out for it. Could be a sleeper. High clouds move in early Tuesday AM and Tuesday is cloudy/showery with a warm front--but most guidance has us blowing clear of the front by Wednesday AM. Depends on how warm you're thinking. If it's 80ish, that's not very atypical given average highs is 76/77 locally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 FWIW, Euro showing 2" of rain, GFS showing generally 1-1.5" for the entire week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 FWIW, Euro showing 2" of rain, GFS showing generally 1-1.5" for the entire week. I assume that's mostly between Thursday afternoon->/Friday afternoon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 12z nam is not good, thankfully its way out in time. Looks like its trying to train storms over the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlurker Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 12z nam is not good, thankfully its way out in time. Looks like its trying to train storms over the region. Sheesh! 3.5 inches at New Castle County Airport by Thursday night and it looks like it'll continue in a big way beyond that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 euro follows suit, now going with 3-4 inches over the region from tomorrow to next tuesda..bulk of precip later in the week into the weekend...Then another wave early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iceman56 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 euro follows suit, now going with 3-4 inches over the region from tomorrow to next tuesda..bulk of precip later in the week into the weekend...Then another wave early next week Swell, just swell. Wettest calendar year on record perhaps? I don't think we've seen the last of the tropical influence yet either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Parsley Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I just put about 2 lbs. of grass seed down. We are doomed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I just put about 2 lbs. of grass seed down. We are doomed. Couldn't you have waited another week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted September 19, 2011 Share Posted September 19, 2011 I just put about 2 lbs. of grass seed down. We are doomed. I did the same thing on Sunday. Nothing like spending a few hours and dollars on the lawn just to have it wash away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 euro follows suit, now going with 3-4 inches over the region from tomorrow to next tuesda..bulk of precip later in the week into the weekend...Then another wave early next week Looks like a nasty cutoff low develops and keeps us cold and rainy.. highs in the 50's with 3-4" of rainfall. Would that be enough to cause river flooding again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
daxx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Looks like a nasty cutoff low develops and keeps us cold and rainy.. highs in the 50's with 3-4" of rainfall. Would that be enough to cause river flooding again? I know you are asking Tom this question, but I thought I might answer. Last time we had 8-12"+ amounts of rain, and it caused major river flooding. If we end up getting 3-4" of rain this time, I think we might have some flooding problems, but nothing like the last event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 meh, not so bad ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 I know you are asking Tom this question, but I thought I might answer. Last time we had 8-12"+ amounts of rain, and it caused major river flooding. If we end up getting 3-4" of rain this time, I think we might have some flooding problems, but nothing like the last event. Yea but before we had Irene and Lee, we had some pretty long stretches of dry weather that helped create low water table levels and allowed most of Irene rains and some of Lee's to saturate in before intense run off. Besides a lot of devastation comes from creeks, streams and small rivers overflowing, rather then the mighty susquehanna river. And they take a lot less rainfall to hit major flood levels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grothar Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yea but before we had Irene and Lee, we had some pretty long stretches of dry weather that helped create low water table levels and allowed most of Irene rains and some of Lee's to saturate in before intense run off. Besides a lot of devastation comes from creeks, streams and small rivers overflowing, rather then the mighty susquehanna river. And they take a lot less rainfall to hit major flood levels. I would agree with your concern. Major river flooding does not appear to be a problem but the secondary tributaries look to be in real trouble. I would expect a flash flood watch to be in effect by Thursday afternoon for most of the area with localized flash flooding to be the emphasis in the wording for streams such as the Perkiomen, Neshaminy, Little Lehigh etc. The soil profile is still saturated and any prolong storm event of 3-4 inches will be just as bad as a seven inch rain in our area. You might as well consider it the same as it raining on frozen soils where 100% impervious occurs. After 1.5 inches, all of the precip thereafter will runoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
phlwx Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Euro 2-4", most of it east of 95, through Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
am19psu Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Yea but before we had Irene and Lee, we had some pretty long stretches of dry weather that helped create low water table levels and allowed most of Irene rains and some of Lee's to saturate in before intense run off. Besides a lot of devastation comes from creeks, streams and small rivers overflowing, rather then the mighty susquehanna river. And they take a lot less rainfall to hit major flood levels. Actually, that's not true. August was already the wettest month in PHL history BEFORE Irene. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sunny and Warm Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 early morning HPC discussion for days 2 and 3. : QUANTITATIVE PRECIPITATION FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 604 AM EDT TUE SEP 20 2011 FINAL DAY 2 AND DAY 3 QPF DISCUSSION VALID SEP 20/1200 UTC THRU SEP 23/1200 UTC REFERENCE AWIPS GRAPHICS UNDER...PRECIP ACCUM - 24HR DAYS 2/3... ...EASTERN U.S.... MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT SHOWING A DEEP UPPER LOW MOVING INTO AND REMAINING OVER THE UPPER GREAT LAKES AS A STRONG UPPER RIDGE CENTERED OVER THE WRN ATLANTIC HINDERS ANY FURTHER DOWNSTREAM PROGRESS. WHAT MAKES FOR A DIFFICULT FORECAST ACROSS THE EAST THIS PERIOD ARE THE NUMEROUS PERTURBATIONS FORECAST TO LIFT TO THE N IN BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE DOWNSTREAM RIDGE. THESE WAVES...INTERACTING WITH DEEP MOISTURE DRAWN NWD BY THE RIDGE UP FROM THE TROPICS AND ALONG THE E COAST ARE EXPECTED TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD LGT/MDT TO LOCALLY HVY AMTS. HOWEVER...MODEL SPREAD IS SIGNIFICANT WITH REGARDS TO THE TIMING AND AMPLITUDE OF THESE SYSTEMS...LOWERING CONFIDENCE WITH RESPECT TO FINER DETAILS OF THE FORECAST. IT CAN BE SAID WITH SOME DEGREE OF THE CONFIDENCE HOWEVER THAT THE NAM IS PROBABLY TOO SLOW/AMPLIFIED WITH THE WAVE IT TRACKS N THRU THE MID ATL INTO THE NORTHEAST THU INTO EARLY FRI. THE GFS/ECMWF/UKMET ALL INDICATE A WEAKER MORE PROGRESSIVE FEATURE AND IN TURN LIGHTER AMTS ACROSS THE REGION. FURTHER DIFFERENCES EVOLVE LATER IN THE PERIOD ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST/SRN MID ATL WHEN THE ECMWF/UKMET DEVELOP MORE WIDESPREAD HEAVIER AMTS AS ENERGY IN THE BASE DIGGING THRU THE BASE OF THE TROF BEGINS TO SWING EAST. SUSPECT THE GFS MAY BE UNDERDONE HERE...SO LEANED CLOSER TO THE ECMWF/UKMET. FURTHER TO THE N AND W...EXPECT LGT/MDT AMTS TO DEVELOP AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT PUSHING INTO THE OH/TN VLYS. DEEPER MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FURTHER TO THE E...WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE POTENTIAL FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HVY AMTS ACROSS THIS REGION. ORAVEC/PEREIRA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Actually, that's not true. August was already the wettest month in PHL history BEFORE Irene. Was it more localized or was it widespread? I guess those events make the early parts of the mth a blur to me, and I couldn't find the daily rainfall totals to compare. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ptb127 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 Euro 2-4", most of it east of 95, through Saturday. So east of I-95 is forecasted to get 2-4" of rain by the 0z euro? What about west of I-95? lol I hope this isnt the start of a seasonal trend for winter.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted September 20, 2011 Share Posted September 20, 2011 So east of I-95 is forecasted to get 2-4" of rain by the 0z euro? What about west of I-95? lol I hope this isnt the start of a seasonal trend for winter.... euro goes 2-4 inches for the region to saturday, heaviest 95 south and east where the 3-4 is...2 -3 north and west... from sat to early next week the closed low brings another 1-2 inches to the region with a total of 4-5 from 95 south and east and 3-4 north and west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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