Weathergun Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1753 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0424 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...ERN PA...SERN NY...CNTRL/NRN NJ CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 262124Z - 262230Z THE THREAT FOR SVR STORMS COULD EXTEND TO THE ATLANTIC COAST...AND AN ADDITIONAL WW MAY BE NEEDED SOUTH OF WW686/WW687...OR SWD WW EXTENSION MAY BE NEEDED. VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES DEPICT DEVELOPING CONVECTION ALONG A PREFRONTAL CONVERGENCE AXIS STRETCHING SWWD FROM SERN NY INTO ERN PA. WHILE INSTABILITY IS ONLY MARGINAL TO MODERATE...EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR MAGNITUDES OF 40 TO 50 KT WILL MAINTAIN A THREAT FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELLULAR OR POSSIBLY SUPERCELLULAR STRUCTURES TOWARD THE COAST...WITH ATTENDANT THREATS FOR DMGG WIND GUSTS AND POSSIBLY MARGINALLY LARGE HAIL. THE THREAT MAY BE MITIGATED TO SOME DEGREE OVER LONG ISLAND...WHERE THE STABLE MARINE LAYER WILL OFFER ENHANCED MLCINH. THE GREATEST THREAT FOR SVR STORMS WILL BE ACROSS NRN PARTS OF THE DISCUSSION AREA...WHICH WILL BE IN CLOSER PROXIMITY TO STRONGER DEEP-LAYER ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH PARTS OF NEW ENGLAND. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I wouldn't issue a watch right now if I were SPC. Just person opinion. I think the updrafts are too isolated and the juxtaposition of the shear and forcing is bad. Who knows--they are the experts for a reason. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Although the storm over Monroe county has remained near severe limits..the tops have collapsed pretty rapidly the past half hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Severe thunderstorm warning for Sussex & Warren counties now through 7pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 tops are down to 27,000 feet now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Nice storm in NE pennsylvania Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Pamela Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Can hear thunder here in Port Jeff but looks like squall line will just barely miss me to my east... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 That cluster of storms now entering Sussex county is the best hope for NYC.I would like to see a bit more SE movement though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 I'm going to get hit head on by that little storm in NJ in a couple of minutes. It just got clouded over and I'm starting to hear some thunder. It's not much of storm, but it'll do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 That cluster of storms now entering Sussex county is the best hope for NYC.I would like to see a bit more SE movement though. its starting to gust out. (weaken) unfortunately lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wx.1028 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 That one cell entering union co. is making a beeline for Staten Island. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Interesting, on KOKX radar, at 2301Z, a 36.5 dbz radial was right over my house, yet I observed no rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cyg Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Got a 5 minute sun-downpour out of the Union Co storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 Statement as of 7:27 PM EDT on July 26, 2011 The National Weather Service in Upton NY has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... Suffolk County in southeast New York... * until 800 PM EDT... * at 724 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Westhampton... and moving southeast at 20 mph. * Other locations in the warning include but are not limited to East Quogue and Hampton Bays. Precautionary/preparedness actions... This is a dangerous storm. If you are in its path... prepare immediately for damaging winds and deadly cloud to ground lightning. People outside should move to a shelter... preferably inside a strong building but away from windows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted July 26, 2011 Author Share Posted July 26, 2011 tatement as of 7:50 PM EDT on July 26, 2011 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... northeastern Morris County in northern New Jersey... * until 845 PM EDT * at 746 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Lake Telemark... or 13 miles north of Morristown... and moving east at 45 mph. * The severe thunderstorm will be near... Pequannock township... Riverdale... Butler and 9 miles north of East Hanover around 755 PM EDT... Lincoln Park around 800 PM EDT... The strongest winds may occur along the leading edge of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The cell to its west in Sussex Co. looks alot stronger than that one tatement as of 7:50 PM EDT on July 26, 2011 The National Weather Service in Mount Holly NJ has issued a * Severe Thunderstorm Warning for... northeastern Morris County in northern New Jersey... * until 845 PM EDT * at 746 PM EDT... National Weather Service Doppler radar indicated a severe thunderstorm capable of producing damaging winds in excess of 60 mph. This storm was located near Lake Telemark... or 13 miles north of Morristown... and moving east at 45 mph. * The severe thunderstorm will be near... Pequannock township... Riverdale... Butler and 9 miles north of East Hanover around 755 PM EDT... Lincoln Park around 800 PM EDT... The strongest winds may occur along the leading edge of the storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MGorse Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The cell to its west in Sussex Co. looks alot stronger than that one Reflectivity is weaker than that storm, however a decent amount of wind being detected with the Morris county cell along with some rotation from time to time. The EWR terminal doppler even showing signs of a lowering wind max. Edit: It has now weakened and moved east of the warning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nzucker Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 TSRA 79.1/61 N@9mph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 I just saw some lightning, watch nothing happen though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycsnow Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Coming close to me in Brooklyn big light show Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowlover11 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Was outside with the dog and saw it was getting darker, so I said ok let me take him out..I get across the street and BAM! HUGEEE bolt of lightning and gunshot thunder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Was outside with the dog and saw it was getting darker, so I said ok let me take him out..I get across the street and BAM! HUGEEE bolt of lightning and gunshot thunder. poor doggie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 decent light show out here in nassau county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Diego Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Fyi. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Sabathia has retired all 16 batters, striking out 11 of them. ELEVEN. And this rain is gonna force him out of the game. This is unbelievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 WOW is this intense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 just some heavy rain and gusty winds here really no thunder at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Sabathia has retired all 16 batters, striking out 11 of them. ELEVEN. And this rain is gonna force him out of the game. This is unbelievable. Grounds crew is getting the water off the tarp now. They are good. Cone sat through a 45 minute delay in his perfect game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CooL Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Grounds crew is getting the water off the tarp now. They are good. Cone sat through a 45 minute delay in his perfect game. just some leftover showers going thru the shredder. Lets get back to the game! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gkrangers Posted July 27, 2011 Share Posted July 27, 2011 Grounds crew is getting the water off the tarp now. They are good. Cone sat through a 45 minute delay in his perfect game. If they get going now he might come back out. He's a horse, Joe has to let him try. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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