bluewave Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 With the cold front moving through, there will be the potential for thunderstorms later on. The shear will be there for some of the storms to possibly go severe with a mid level jet max of around 50 KT.We'll have to wait and see if we can destabilize enough for the severe potential to be realized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12Z NAM has a nasty squall line south of LI later but it looks like it doesnt get its act together till its south of the city. Big bullseye in SNE as well. 12z sounding out of Upton is pathetic, but its a morning sounding before things destabalize, but still KALB, more impressive, I think SNE really does well today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12z NAM. Decent storms for NYC/LI and NE of there: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Unfortunately, KOKX and TJFK are down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 These storms have a tendency to stay relegated to southern new England in these events...but the vorticity is positioned well to get stuff going down here today. I think SE NY, N NJ, and SW CT will do well with scattered southward propagating storms later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 redd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tmagan Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 RUC KEWR 21Z Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 RUC KEWR 21Z Tuesday. pretty impressive, if it can be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 These storms have a tendency to stay relegated to southern new England in these events...but the vorticity is positioned well to get stuff going down here today. I think SE NY, N NJ, and SW CT will do well with scattered southward propagating storms later. I think they cash in, but as you say wouldnt be surprised to see some action away from the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12z GFS keeps the activity well north and east of us. Hopefully, the NAM has a better handle on this, being a model made for this type of stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 12z GFS keeps the activity well north and east of us. Hopefully, the NAM has a better handle on this, being a model made for this type of stuff. How did it do yesterday at 12z on the rain? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The sourthernmost current activity is on a track to hit Sussex County NJ in about 5-6 hours. its a big iff but I'm glad to see some activity going that far south. The shear is 20-40kts, SBCAPE is already in the 500-1000 J/KG area. One potential limiting factor could be the very poor mid-level lapse rates. Low level lapse rates are very good though. Lets see if we go slight risk on the next outlook or not, my feeling is no but that could happen later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAT5ANDREW Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Its events like these that tend to suprise and overperform for our area so I would not at all be suprised to see decent storms later on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Manny Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Yankee Game later, hopefully any storms don't mess with the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 1747 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1234 PM CDT TUE JUL 26 2011 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN ME...SRN/CNTRL NH...SERN NY...AND PORTIONS OF MA/CT/RI CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE VALID 261734Z - 261900Z A WW MAY BECOME NECESSARY OVER WRN ME...SRN/CNTRL NH...SERN NY AND PORTIONS OF MA/CT/RI DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED. AT 17Z...VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES CLOUDINESS IS CLEARING FROM W TO E ACROSS WRN ME SWD INTO MA/CT. THIS IS ALLOWING SURFACE TEMPERATURES TO GRADUALLY WARM INTO THE 70S...WHICH IS AIDING IN BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION AND INCREASE IN MLCAPE VALUES /AROUND 500 J PER KG BASED ON RECENT OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS GUIDANCE/. AS A RESULT...STORMS OCCURRING TO THE W WILL LIKELY BEGIN TO EXIT ERN PORTIONS OF WW 686 DURING THE NEXT FEW HRS. IN ADDITION...RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES ADDITIONAL STORM DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR AS FAR S AS SERN NY. WITH CONTINUED SURFACE HEATING OVER THE AREA...AN INCREASE IN CAPE SHOULD OCCUR OVER THE REGION /WITH MLCAPE VALUES CLIMBING UP TO 1500 J PER KG/...WHICH WHEN COUPLED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER WLY SHEAR /EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR VALUES IN EXCESS OF 40 KT/...WILL PROMOTE A THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS. CONVECTIVE AND ENVIRONMENTAL TRENDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR A POSSIBLE WW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The SPC WRF has a big event later today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 The SPC WRF has a big event later today seems to be leaning nyc N and E. SNE is going to get destroyed later. Albany is on the door step of it now. Its seems NYC S and W should miss it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 seems to be leaning nyc N and E. SNE is going to get destroyed later. Albany is on the door step of it now. Its seems NYC S and W should miss it. If you believe the SPC WRF there's plenty of scattered convection as far south and west as Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Severe Thunderstorm Warning now for Scranton, storms are building in PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If you believe the SPC WRF there's plenty of scattered convection as far south and west as Philly well, yes, but not a big event. SNE is going to see a very large event, their biggest since the tornados. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Watch issued, but not for nyc S and W. All of SW NY and CT up into SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof09 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 If you believe the SPC WRF there's plenty of scattered convection as far south and west as Philly Doubt it though but do you think long island I gonna see any organized activity this late afternoon/evening been a while since I've seen a good storm lately?, granted the bulk of the big stuff will prolly be north of our area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorEaster27 Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Thats Taunton. Upton hasn't updated yet. SPC issues the watches not the local office. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Gonna be some good hail reports later today from CT and MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 Watch out for that cell currently near Scranton, the warning on it was allowed to expire but its broken off from the rest of the pack and is now discrete. If it holds together it will come right across Passaic County and then into the city. Its about to encounter its most unstable atmosphere yet. Bulk shear values are in excess of 45kts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 anyone know why the radar has been crapping out so much lately? Are they upgrading or something? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 So much for that storm in NE PA, honestly it looks like the shear is too strong. Mid-level laps rates are awfull. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheTrials Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 So much for that storm in NE PA, honestly it looks like the shear is too strong. Mid-level laps rates are awfull. sounding said it all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 New storms have fired over NE PA and look very healthy. New warnings out for the Scranton area. Lets see if they hold together better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
earthlight Posted July 26, 2011 Share Posted July 26, 2011 the west to east shear is blowing off the updraft of the storm over monroe county and it's very visible on radar. even more so on the echo top loops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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