Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Snowstorms]

Not sure how reliable this site is:

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

But if those ONI numbers are accurate, 1995-96 could hardly be classified as even a weak Nina. Although, my personal spreadsheet does have 95-96 as a Nina, so I don't know. In any case, good on you for throwing cold water on the comparisons due to the other incongruities.

And from Southern Ontario too? I am the premiere Southern Ontario poster. All other southern Ontario posters bow down before me.

1995-96 only peaked at -0.7 on the ONI index though it managed to stay in Weak Nina conditions for a few months.

LOL....premiere huh. I'm from Vaughan. Been a poster at Accuwx since 2008. One of the top posters on the Canadian threads haha.

Hope we can track storms together

[snowstormcanuck]

1995-96 only peaked at -0.7 on the ONI index though it managed to stay in Weak Nina conditions for a few months.

LOL....premiere huh. I'm from Vaughan. Been a poster at Accuwx since 2008. One of the top posters on the Canadian threads haha.

Hope we can track storms together

Jesus, was your location info always there? If so, I can't believe I missed that.

Yeah, welcome aboard man. It'll be great to discussing winter wx with you the next couple of months! You wouldn't happen to be vaughanweather from youtube?

[Snowstorms]

Jesus, was you location info always there? If so, I can't believe I missed that.

Yeah, welcome aboard man. It'll be great to discussing winter wx with you the next couple of months! You wouldn't happen to be vaughanweather from youtube?

Thanks!

No I just added it recently but my blog link has "toronto" in it, haha.

No I'm not vaughanweather. I often see a small part of the LES Outbreaks from GBay and Huron, haha.

BTW what do you think of my Winter outlook, in your best opinion?

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/09/my-preliminary-winter-outlook-2012.html

[snowstormcanuck]

Thanks!

No I just added it recently but my blog link has "toronto" in it, haha.

No I'm not vaughanweather. I often see a small part of the LES Outbreaks from GBay and Huron, haha.

BTW what do you think of my Winter outlook, in your best opinion?

http://weatherintoro...tlook-2012.html

lol, my LRF abilities are not in the same area code as yours (although I hope I'm gradually getting better). So my critique would be next to useless. But I'll tell you, 2008-09 is an analog I could live with in terms of total snowfall here in YYZ. Hopefully sans the abrupt end in February and maybe a few more "big" storms.

[KokomoWX]

Includes the spring and summer of 2012 too.

http://blogs.wlfi.co...11/09/15/45598/

[Hoosier]

Includes the spring and summer of 2012 too.

http://blogs.wlfi.co...11/09/15/45598/

That forecast is ridiculous in its specificity.

[Snowstorms]

lol, my LRF abilities are not in the same area code as yours (although I hope I'm gradually getting better). So my critique would be next to useless. But I'll tell you, 2008-09 is an analog I could live with in terms of total snowfall here in YYZ. Hopefully sans the abrupt end in February and maybe a few more "big" storms.

Got about 4-6 inches or 10-15cm with that LES Outbreak in December. That storm in Feb 2011 (1st-3rd) was very epic. I got about 20-25cm with that storm.

2008-09 is a very good analogue. Compares well with this year in terms of ENSO/PDO/AMO, etc.

I would like a 1964-65, 1970-71, 1977-78 and 1917-1918 repeat again, lol.

There's the possibility we may see a Nina event like the 50's and 70's or a Multi-Year Nina event.

[Harry]

Those right along the edge could be in for one a hell of a ride! Also interesting to note the overall negative departures across the globe..

That is atleast colder then what they were showing at about this same point last year for winter.

My concern again is with the drought in the S.Plains/TX. I would REALLY love to see that go POOF. It is playing havoc with my thoughts on winter.

[Chicago WX]

Includes the spring and summer of 2012 too.

http://blogs.wlfi.co...11/09/15/45598/

If the +/- error is off for this upcoming winter, as it was for this past summer...well then,

But he's a bit kooky. Why anyone would give a detailed forecast for next summer is beyond me.

[wisconsinwx]

Includes the spring and summer of 2012 too.

http://blogs.wlfi.co...11/09/15/45598/

I could live with that outlook, but seriously, it appears to me that every outlook I have seen is very similar to the rest. I have a feel there is some deliberate duplicity, as 3/4 of the outlooks I have seen has us in a cold and snowy area, and overall has the NC part of the country in cold and somewhat snowier than average conditions, with the S Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley closer to normal in temps but still wetter and snowier than normal overall.

[Hoosier]

I could live with that outlook, but seriously, it appears to me that every outlook I have seen is very similar to the rest. I have a feel there is some deliberate duplicity, as 3/4 of the outlooks I have seen has us in a cold and snowy area, and overall has the NC part of the country in cold and somewhat snowier than average conditions, with the S Great Lakes and the Ohio Valley closer to normal in temps but still wetter and snowier than normal overall.

A lot of the forecasts so far seem to be standard Nina climo...if you can call it standard.

[Quixotic1]

JAMSTEC updated today. Showing a stronger La Nina. Precip shifted slightly farther SE for the winter. Surface temps look cold across mostly the NW 1/2 of the US.

http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en

Each run moves the cold anomalies further south and east.

[wisconsinwx]

A lot of the forecasts so far seem to be standard Nina climo...if you can call it standard.

I figured that was the reason why, but it is uncanny how similar many of the forecasts seem to be. It seems like this is likely to be a year where we get most of our snow in the GL and Upper Midwest from clippers as opposed to having many Panhandle Hookers or Colorado Lows, based on many of the favored storm track maps. I still hope we can have at least one or two of each of those, though.

[Chicago WX]

This winter sounds like a crapshoot. Like playing blackjack.

I thought you were riding 1917-18 to the bitter end.

[iFred]

Nice to see these forecasts trending in favor of a colder Pacific Northwest.

[snowstormcanuck]

Got about 4-6 inches or 10-15cm with that LES Outbreak in December. That storm in Feb 2011 (1st-3rd) was very epic. I got about 20-25cm with that storm.

2008-09 is a very good analogue. Compares well with this year in terms of ENSO/PDO/AMO, etc.

I would like a 1964-65, 1970-71, 1977-78 and 1917-1918 repeat again, lol.

There's the possibility we may see a Nina event like the 50's and 70's or a Multi-Year Nina event.

Last December was really a continuation of the type of heavily blocked pattern we saw through much of 09-10, quashing the storm track to our south. But LES did bail us out to an extent. The snow I received on December 14th was the most ever from a non-Lk Ontario LES event.

As for Feb 2, 2011, I got 5.6" I think? Bustorama.

[an uncanny otter]

Last December was really a continuation of the type of heavily blocked pattern we saw through much of 09-10, quashing the storm track to our south. But LES did bail us out to an extent. The snow I received on December 14th was the most ever from a non-Lk Ontario LES event.

As for Feb 2, 2011, I got 5.6" I think? Bustorama.

Last year was the first time I started measuring our snowfall, so my records aren't that great before last winter. But we received at least 20 cm of snow that was pure lake-effect - not that impressive if you live in the snowbelt, but for a town that's on the north edge of Lake Erie, it's pretty significant. We got 6 cm of LES after the Groundhog Blizzard, which helped seal the wound after our 19 cm of sleet

I was pretty happy about last winter (82 cm of snow in February ) but it's been will over 3 years since our last 30+ cm snowfall. The last time we had a foot or more fall was during the March 8, 2008 snowstorm. I would be pretty happy if we managed to squeeze a footer at some point in the winter.

As far as lake-effect goes, a repeat of November 20, 2008 would make me one happy camper. Far-reaching northerly streamers off of Lake Huron? In November? Yes please.

[River Card]

Too early to be worried about Hudson Bay ice.

Thanks...

[London snowsquall]

Last year was the first time I started measuring our snowfall, so my records aren't that great before last winter. But we received at least 20 cm of snow that was pure lake-effect - not that impressive if you live in the snowbelt, but for a town that's on the north edge of Lake Erie, it's pretty significant. We got 6 cm of LES after the Groundhog Blizzard, which helped seal the wound after our 19 cm of sleet

I was pretty happy about last winter (82 cm of snow in February ) but it's been will over 3 years since our last 30+ cm snowfall. The last time we had a foot or more fall was during the March 8, 2008 snowstorm. I would be pretty happy if we managed to squeeze a footer at some point in the winter.

As far as lake-effect goes, a repeat of November 20, 2008 would make me one happy camper. Far-reaching northerly streamers off of Lake Huron? In November? Yes please.

I'll take a repeat of last winter please... the only thing missing was a non-les whopper, but I've been patiently waiting for years for that one.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

Last December was really a continuation of the type of heavily blocked pattern we saw through much of 09-10, quashing the storm track to our south. But LES did bail us out to an extent. The snow I received on December 14th was the most ever from a non-Lk Ontario LES event.

As for Feb 2, 2011, I got 5.6" I think? Bustorama.

I'm hoping that the blocking pattern doesn't return this year. I'm hearing it could be another very cold winter in Europe and the US though.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

[hm8]

http://www.weather.com/outlook/weather-news/news/articles/wsi-late-fall-early-winter-outlook_2011-09-19

[wisconsinwx]

http://www.weather.c...look_2011-09-19

I am such a bad winter atm. I have a one-track mind counting down the days until the typical start of winter weather (which here is about mid November). I have to distract myself from thinking about something that is still two months away.

[Snowstorms]

Last December was really a continuation of the type of heavily blocked pattern we saw through much of 09-10, quashing the storm track to our south. But LES did bail us out to an extent. The snow I received on December 14th was the most ever from a non-Lk Ontario LES event.

As for Feb 2, 2011, I got 5.6" I think? Bustorama.

Last December didn't really feature any snowstorms as far as I know for our region. The blocking last December was centered across Northern Canada with the PV situated across Hudson Bay leading to a late season freezing across the Hudson.

That late March storm was quite epic. Despite it being cold afterwards the snow melted quickly given the stronger sun, lol.

[Harry]

I'm hoping that the blocking pattern doesn't return this year. I'm hearing it could be another very cold winter in Europe and the US though.

http://markvoganweather.blogspot.com/p/long-range.html

I am feeling good that it wont and or wont be as strong as the past couple of winters anyways.

[Chicago WX]

Not that I give it much credence, but here's the last DJF outlook from CPC.

[wisconsinwx]

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/news/story/55286/fall-2011-update-october-to-mi.asp

Now this is what I'm talking about! They also mention some Midwest cities likely getting slammed this winter with clippers and cutters. Is there anything in particular that differentiates cutters from Panhandle Hooks?

[buckeye]

http://www.accuweath...tober-to-mi.asp

Now this is what I'm talking about! They also mention some Midwest cities likely getting slammed this winter with clippers and cutters. Is there anything in particular that differentiates cutters from Panhandle Hooks?

cutter is a pretty general term. I've seen storms that ride the coastal plain, (just inland), labeled as cutters. I've also seen storms as far west as tracking thru the western lakes called cutters as well. To an eastcoaster, if it's not out to sea or a noreaster, it's a cutter.

Panhandle hookers tend to affect areas from the extreme western OV to upper midwest. Central OH usually gets screwed too far east with panhandle hookers.

[buckeye]

I'm starting to get nervous about the winter season.....the early concensus seems strong for the OV/MW, that usually turns out to be a bad thing.

[wisconsinwx]

cutter is a pretty general term. I've seen storms that ride the coastal plain, (just inland), labeled as cutters. I've also seen storms as far west as tracking thru the western lakes called cutters as well. To an eastcoaster, if it's not out to sea or a noreaster, it's a cutter.

Panhandle hookers tend to affect areas from the extreme western OV to upper midwest. Central OH usually gets screwed too far east with panhandle hookers.

I figured cutters was a more general term for storms that cut northward at some point, although in the western half of the MW, cutters and panhandle hooks are frequently used simultaneously I'm sure.

[Stebo]

A cutter is any storm that cuts Northward West of the Appalachians. I don't think that many consider storms on the coastal plains, cutters. Those are inland runners to most people.