snowlover2 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 snowday.us forecast... http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx Love it to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Love it to say the least. Can someone post maps? Pics not pulling up for me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Can someone post maps? Pics not pulling up for me. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 16, 2011 Share Posted September 16, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Go figure, I've seen close to a dozen winter outlooks so far, and the only one going with a below average snowfall likelihood is my own WFO (however that was only based on second year La Ninas). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chambana Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Almost every single winter forecast has thrown central Illinois, northern Illinois under the bus for a rough winter! I gotta say one of these forecasts has to verify haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The Winter of 2010/2011 featured a strong La Nina event. Temperatures at both Milwaukee and Madison were below normal with above normal snowfall. After weakening over the summer, the colder than normal sea water temperatures along the Pacific Equatorial region are gradually coming back. Many of the long range models suggest that we will have a second straight La Nina winter. Since 1950, there have been 4 times when there were two or three consecutive La Nina winters. 1954/55 through 1956/57 (3 winters in a row) 1970/71 and 1971/72 1973/74 through 1975/76 (3 winters in a row) 1998/99 through 2000/2001 (3 winters in a row) Doing some simple, back of the envelope statistical comparisons from this small sample of previous back-to-back La Nina winters suggests that we will receive less snow and temperatures will not be as cold as last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The Winter of 2010/2011 featured a strong La Nina event. Temperatures at both Milwaukee and Madison were below normal with above normal snowfall. After weakening over the summer, the colder than normal sea water temperatures along the Pacific Equatorial region are gradually coming back. Many of the long range models suggest that we will have a second straight La Nina winter. Since 1950, there have been 4 times when there were two or three consecutive La Nina winters. 1954/55 through 1956/57 (3 winters in a row) 1970/71 and 1971/72 1973/74 through 1975/76 (3 winters in a row) 1998/99 through 2000/2001 (3 winters in a row) Doing some simple, back of the envelope statistical comparisons from this small sample of previous back-to-back La Nina winters suggests that we will receive less snow and temperatures will not be as cold as last year. You Scared yet? Of the pretty good chance of yet another solid winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The Winter of 2010/2011 featured a strong La Nina event. Temperatures at both Milwaukee and Madison were below normal with above normal snowfall. After weakening over the summer, the colder than normal sea water temperatures along the Pacific Equatorial region are gradually coming back. Many of the long range models suggest that we will have a second straight La Nina winter. Since 1950, there have been 4 times when there were two or three consecutive La Nina winters. 1954/55 through 1956/57 (3 winters in a row) 1970/71 and 1971/72 1973/74 through 1975/76 (3 winters in a row) 1998/99 through 2000/2001 (3 winters in a row) Doing some simple, back of the envelope statistical comparisons from this small sample of previous back-to-back La Nina winters suggests that we will receive less snow and temperatures will not be as cold as last year. The man in the middle will be you. Anyways, I'm not surprised you run with one of the rare predictions that has us with below average snowfall and above average temperatures. I'll take the consensus, not the exceptions, thank you very much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 You Scared yet? Of the pretty good chance of another solid winter? He's probably not scared of the snow, but I can pretty darn well bet he's scared of seeing many outlooks put the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in colder or much colder than average regions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 He's probably not scared of the snow, but I can pretty darn well bet he's scared of seeing many outlooks put the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes in colder or much colder than average regions. He actually likes cold and snow. But he loves being a troll above all else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 He actually likes cold and snow. But he loves being a troll above all else. He may have loved it at one point, but I get the feeling when someone beats a dead horse like he beats the drum of heat, they're serious. What does he have to gain by pointing out everything that points to hot weather unless he dislikes the cold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 It looks like an old fashioned butt kicking winter...no reason to not think since the last several have been active to say the least. Always enjoy snowfreaks pics, they capture the quiet beauty of winter. Not my fav season, but having lived in so many places through the years, winter in the rural midwest is incredible. I just make the most of it, with all the expertise here, I depend on all the long range chatter here for planning work commutes ahead and also last year so many called the blizzard potential well ahead of many mets which allowed me to secure a hotel room for 2 nights. So you guys are appreciated for all that you do. I've learned a llot from you guys here so thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The Winter of 2010/2011 featured a strong La Nina event. Temperatures at both Milwaukee and Madison were below normal with above normal snowfall. After weakening over the summer, the colder than normal sea water temperatures along the Pacific Equatorial region are gradually coming back. Many of the long range models suggest that we will have a second straight La Nina winter. Since 1950, there have been 4 times when there were two or three consecutive La Nina winters. 1954/55 through 1956/57 (3 winters in a row) 1970/71 and 1971/72 1973/74 through 1975/76 (3 winters in a row) 1998/99 through 2000/2001 (3 winters in a row) Doing some simple, back of the envelope statistical comparisons from this small sample of previous back-to-back La Nina winters suggests that we will receive less snow and temperatures will not be as cold as last year. meh, for here, based on this very very small sample, its 50/50. 1955-56 and 1974-75 were much snowier than the previous winter, 1971-72 and 1999-00 were not. Going on the alternating pattern, 2011-12 is due to be snowier than the previous winter. Which means snowfall records may be broken YET AGAIN!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 It looks like an old fashioned butt kicking winter...no reason to not think since the last several have been active to say the least. Always enjoy snowfreaks pics, they capture the quiet beauty of winter. Not my fav season, but having lived in so many places through the years, winter in the rural midwest is incredible. I just make the most of it, with all the expertise here, I depend on all the long range chatter here for planning work commutes ahead and also last year so many called the blizzard potential well ahead of many mets which allowed me to secure a hotel room for 2 nights. So you guys are appreciated for all that you do. I've learned a llot from you guys here so thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 The man in the middle will be you. Anyways, I'm not surprised you run with one of the rare predictions that has us with below average snowfall and above average temperatures. I'll take the consensus, not the exceptions, thank you very much. Most forecasts this summer were calling for a colder than normal summer here... even the CPC. I wouldn't lock it in. We have been cold and snowy since 07-08 and people might be getting complacent here with forecasting. I'm going into winter with an open mind that things could go either way. The possibilities are definitely there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Most forecasts this summer were calling for a colder than normal summer here... even the CPC. I wouldn't lock it in. We have been cold and snowy since 07-08 and people might be getting complacent here with forecasting. I'm going into winter with an open mind that things could go either way. The possibilities are definitely there. Um, most of the forecasts I have seen that were predicting above average snowfall and below normal temps weren't from here, so they probably aren't taking history into account as much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Um, most of the forecasts I have seen that were predicting above average snowfall and below normal temps weren't from here, so they probably aren't taking history into account as much. Euro and CFS showing a warmer than normal winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Would the lack of ice coverage over Hudson bay have an impact on the weather here? I noticed on satelite imagery, and comapring it to other years, it sure seems as if Hudson bay really succumbed to the widespread warmth this summer. Maybe it's no big deal but since so much of our air comes directly from that region, wondering if there could be an impact. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted September 17, 2011 Share Posted September 17, 2011 Would the lack of ice coverage over Hudson bay have an impact on the weather here? I noticed on satelite imagery, and comapring it to other years, it sure seems as if Hudson bay really succumbed to the widespread warmth this summer. Maybe it's no big deal but since so much of our air comes directly from that region, wondering if there could be an impact. Thanks. Too early to be worried about Hudson Bay ice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 JAMSTEC updated today. Showing a stronger La Nina. Precip shifted slightly farther SE for the winter. Surface temps look cold across mostly the NW 1/2 of the US. http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted September 18, 2011 Author Share Posted September 18, 2011 meh, for here, based on this very very small sample, its 50/50. 1955-56 and 1974-75 were much snowier than the previous winter, 1971-72 and 1999-00 were not. Going on the alternating pattern, 2011-12 is due to be snowier than the previous winter. Which means snowfall records may be broken YET AGAIN!!! Never looked at temps as closely but as far as snowfall goes both 2nd and 3rd year Ninas have all been snowier vs 1st year La'Nina here. One of these days perhaps i will look closer at it and see if there is some reason for it. Euro and CFS showing a warmer than normal winter. Averaged out thanks to Feb/Mar it is. Yes it does have a pretty toasty ( heavy duty se ridging ) Feb/Mar showing up. Jan normal from about i80 on north and a shade above to the south of there. Dec Normal for all with slightly above closer to i70. Nov slightly below normal for all. Again to all. I would not be focusing to hard on those 50s/70s/90s analogs. JMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 JAMSTEC updated today. Showing a stronger La Nina. Precip shifted slightly farther SE for the winter. Surface temps look cold across mostly the NW 1/2 of the US. http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en Those right along the edge could be in for one a hell of a ride! Also interesting to note the overall negative departures across the globe.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Those right along the edge could be in for one a hell of a ride! Also interesting to note the overall negative departures across the globe.. LAF right on the battle zone lines. Wouldn't have it any other way. Viva 2007-08! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I did a comparison between 1995 and 2011. Its out on my blog if you want to check it out guys. Questions and comments will be appreciated. http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/09/1995-and-2011-comparsion.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I did a comparison between 1995 and 2011. Its out on my blog if you want to check it out guys. Questions and comments will be appreciated. http://weatherintoro...comparsion.html Why is the comparison being made in the first place? Have you seen forecasts that use 1995-96 as an analog for this upcoming winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Why is the comparison being made in the first place? Have you seen forecasts that use 1995-96 as an analog for this upcoming winter? I've seen people implying for a 1995-96 repeat only because that year was Weak Nina and this year could be that as well. So I decided to look into it. Nothing more than that Your from Southern Ontario too right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Why is the comparison being made in the first place? Have you seen forecasts that use 1995-96 as an analog for this upcoming winter? Has to be a Northeast thing. Gets brought up at least 100 times every fall/pre-winter. That's one of their crown jewel winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 I've seen people implying for a 1995-96 repeat only because that year was Weak Nina and this year could be that as well. So I decided to look into it. Nothing more than that Your from Southern Ontario too right? Not sure how reliable this site is: http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm But if those ONI numbers are accurate, 1995-96 could hardly be classified as even a weak Nina. Although, my personal spreadsheet does have 95-96 as a Nina, so I don't know. In any case, good on you for throwing cold water on the comparisons due to the other incongruities. And from Southern Ontario too? I am the premiere Southern Ontario poster. All other southern Ontario posters bow down before me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted September 18, 2011 Share Posted September 18, 2011 Has to be a Northeast thing. Gets brought up at least 100 times every fall/pre-winter. That's one of their crown jewel winters. I can relate. I like throwing 07-08 around recklessly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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