Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[JoMo]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

Year of the ice storm around here, no thanks

Of course this year....considering the record blizzard in Feb, followed by record cold, then an EF-5 tornado followed by record heat, a record ice storm before January would be about right.

[wisconsinwx]

Year of the ice storm around here, no thanks

Of course this year....considering the record blizzard in Feb, followed by record cold, then an EF-5 tornado followed by record heat, a record ice storm before January would be about right.

Multiple ice storms? I can only personally remember one ice storm here in my life, can't imagine having a winter with a few or several.

[Harry]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

Blend it with 08-09 and it equals...Well can't say it on here but this should suffice.. :wub: :wub:

In short. Give me Dec/Jan 08-09 with a Feb/Mar 07-08!

If anything i suspect we may see a colder version of 07-08. Thus closer to 08-09 but a bit more active across the rest of the region like 07-08 was.

The main difference this winter vs 07-08 is it will be a 2nd year Nina. And instead of coming into the solar Min we are coming out of it. Thus it may be a good thing to have a slightly stronger Nina ( High end weak/low end mod ) to help offset the -NAO. All this solar stuff etc is why again the late 90s/2000-01 Ninas as well as 40s/50s and even 70s ninas are not to relevant as far as analogs go for the winter. JMHO

[JoMo]

Multiple ice storms? I can only personally remember one ice storm here in my life, can't imagine having a winter with a few or several.

Yep. Although this first one was technically the 2006-2007 season:

Jan 12-14th 2007... 0.75-1.50" of freezing rain and thunder freezing rain.

2007-2008:

Dec 8-10th 2007... 0.75-1.00" of freezing rain with local amounts up to 1.5". Thunder freezing rain for hours.

Jan 7-8th 2008 tornado outbreak occurred east of here.. 33 tornadoes, most ranging from EF0-EF2, but a couple were EF3.

Feb 11th 2008.. Freezing rain... Looks like around 0.89"

Feb 21st 2008... Sleet and freezing rain up to 0.75"

The city was cleaning up downed tree limbs for months.

[snowstormcanuck]

Blend it with 08-09 and it equals...Well can't say it on here but this should suffice.. :wub: :wub:

In short. Give me Dec/Jan 08-09 with a Feb/Mar 07-08!

If anything i suspect we may see a colder version of 07-08. Thus closer to 08-09 but a bit more active across the rest of the region like 07-08 was.

The main difference this winter vs 07-08 is it will be a 2nd year Nina. And instead of coming into the solar Min we are coming out of it. Thus it may be a good thing to have a slightly stronger Nina ( High end weak/low end mod ) to help offset the -NAO. All this solar stuff etc is why again the late 90s/2000-01 Ninas as well as 40s/50s and even 70s ninas are not to relevant as far as analogs go for the winter. JMHO

I noticed you're still going for a weak/low end mod. That's probably a good bet attm. I posted some CFS graphics earlier in this thread, but looking at the range of model predictions presented in the CPC's September ENSO diagnostic discussion, it appears to be something of a radical outlier. Actually, I was a little surprised at the model spread. It seems the mean is centered around >-0.5 (La Nada). Makes some of my fear mongering about a uber strong Nina seem kinda baseless.

[SpartyOn]

2007-2008 would be ideal!!! Plenty of snow to enjoy. Clipper systems on a 3 day basis it seemed. Also had a decent amount of warm spells. This helped reduce the snow pack and kept icy gutter nightmares at bay.

[wisconsinwx]

2007-2008 would be ideal!!! Plenty of snow to enjoy. Clipper systems on a 3 day basis it seemed. Also had a decent amount of warm spells. This helped reduce the snow pack and kept icy gutter nightmares at bay.

Yeah, it even had January severe weather in the GL!

[Thundersnow12]

Fred Gossage, who I was talking to last night, had some really good points for a moderate-strong Nina and was also talking up 07-08 winter.

got a 11.5" snowstorm that winter

[Hoosier]

Still seems to me that one of the tougher areas to call especially in terms of temps is the Mid Atlantic/Southeast. We have seen how the strong/extreme blocking episodes have busted many outlooks in the past couple years. But someone else can worry about that.

[Fred Gossage]

Fred Gossage, who I was talking to last night, had some really good points for a moderate-strong Nina and was also talking up 07-08 winter.

got a 11.5" snowstorm that winter

No no.... just a really good chance at a moderate ONI peak. However, I think before all is said and done.... I could see the jet more energized than we usually see in the lower half of the Nina-intensity spectrum.... as we've seen for the past few Nina episodes. I don't see there being an actual strong La Nina episode on the horizon.

[Harry]

I noticed you're still going for a weak/low end mod. That's probably a good bet attm. I posted some CFS graphics earlier in this thread, but looking at the range of model predictions presented in the CPC's September ENSO diagnostic discussion, it appears to be something of a radical outlier. Actually, I was a little surprised at the model spread. It seems the mean is centered around >-0.5 (La Nada). Makes some of my fear mongering about a uber strong Nina seem kinda baseless.

Not really. Thus i would not call it baseless. It is a valid concern no matter the odd's. I always fear the worse and look for what can go wrong. When people just look for one viewpoint is when problems begin with their call's. Despite how i have come across at times in the past i do always keep a open mind UNLESS it really is far fetched and out there.

BTW all.. HM has a great thread in the New England sub-forum.

[River Card]

Not really. Thus i would not call it baseless. It is a valid concern no matter the odd's. I always fear the worse and look for what can go wrong. When people just look for one viewpoint is when problems begin with their call's. Despite how i have come across at times in the past i do always keep a open mind UNLESS it really is far fetched and out there.

BTW all.. HM has a great thread in the New England sub-forum.

Harry,

Hi buddy, what are the monthly's suggesting as of the most recent data? Your always pretty sharp dissecting that info from it. I will post the link for everyone, there is a nice fall forecast put out by Dave Murray in STL. Really talks about a rapid decension into winter but also made note that the early cold and active weather could be in his words a "head fake" as in suggesting that winter could be dicey at times regarding cold and snow. 2007/08 keeps coming up, and the thing I rememer most about that winter was the absolute hyper active pattern that semeingly dropped clipper after clipper every 72 hours or so. I remember a 2 day torch in Jan and although cold ruled it did get wamr enough often to hold overall accumulations down. It was a memorable winter for sure.

[River Card]

Fall forecast, there is a video as well as text...

http://www.fox2now.com/news/ktvi-dave-murray-2011-long-range-fall-forecast-082511,0,7612604.story

[SpartyOn]

Deedler said it perfectly...

."So, the moral of this autumn story is to enjoy the periodic nice weather and Indian Summers when you get the chance!"

Indian Summers are so kick butt!!!

http://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/

[michsnowfreak]

Blend it with 08-09 and it equals...Well can't say it on here but this should suffice.. :wub: :wub:

In short. Give me Dec/Jan 08-09 with a Feb/Mar 07-08!

If anything i suspect we may see a colder version of 07-08. Thus closer to 08-09 but a bit more active across the rest of the region like 07-08 was.

The main difference this winter vs 07-08 is it will be a 2nd year Nina. And instead of coming into the solar Min we are coming out of it. Thus it may be a good thing to have a slightly stronger Nina ( High end weak/low end mod ) to help offset the -NAO. All this solar stuff etc is why again the late 90s/2000-01 Ninas as well as 40s/50s and even 70s ninas are not to relevant as far as analogs go for the winter. JMHO

Yep, 2007-08 + 2008-09 were the snowiest back-to-back winters in Detroits history (beating 1898-99 + 1899-00 by almost 9"). But it was the year period of Feb 2008 - Jan 2009 that was just insane.

DTW:

Feb08- 24.2"

Mar08- 21.0"

Apr08- T

Nov08- 2.2"

Dec08- 21.4"

Jan09- 25.2"

Yearly total 2-1-08 thru 1-31-09: 94.0"

MBY:

Feb08- 24.2"

Mar08- 26.7"

Apr08- 0.1"

Nov08- 1.9"

Dec08- 21.4"

Jan09- 26.1"

Yearly total 2-1-08 thru 1-31-09: 100.4"

So basically 90-110" of snow covered the region in 1 years time, a timeframe that the region would average 40-50".

[michsnowfreak]

Im loving how years from the 1970s and 2000s keep popping up with solid logic, when in reality those would be the years one would normally wishcast. Anything can happen, but as I said earlier, looks like yet another snowy winter is on the way

[snowstormcanuck]

I was reading that the long term -PDO pattern we're in will be a causal factor in the development of more Nina episodes over the next one to two decades. Even taking into account the disastrous 2009-10 winter, the last 4 winters here have averaged nearly 61" of snow, a good foot above normal. I don't want to get my hopes up but the 2010s might be a turning point in what has otherwise been steadily declining snowfall over the last 50 years.

[snowstormcanuck]

Im loving how years from the 1970s and 2000s keep popping up with solid logic, when in reality those would be the years one would normally wishcast. Anything can happen, but as I said earlier, looks like yet another snowy winter is on the way

ha, got the sig setup nicely. Gotta do that myself at some point.

[Omahawx]

NAM on some serious crack. 0Z NAM has snow for northern NE Wednesday afternoon (at 21Z of all times, not at night) with the arctic plunge lol. Quite honestly not sure what it is doing, but it does seem to have a total lack of modification as the front develops southward and possibly some spurious convective precip forcing which results in unrealistic column cooling.

haha and It's gone already! But it was nice seeing that rather unusual occurrence on the NAM!

[sc2man13]

now hopefully GR has a good LES year on top of all of that. Seems like all the good events went to SE MI/NW IN the past few years. Let's hear it for a good west flow!

[Harry]

Harry,

Hi buddy, what are the monthly's suggesting as of the most recent data? Your always pretty sharp dissecting that info from it. I will post the link for everyone, there is a nice fall forecast put out by Dave Murray in STL. Really talks about a rapid decension into winter but also made note that the early cold and active weather could be in his words a "head fake" as in suggesting that winter could be dicey at times regarding cold and snow. 2007/08 keeps coming up, and the thing I rememer most about that winter was the absolute hyper active pattern that semeingly dropped clipper after clipper every 72 hours or so. I remember a 2 day torch in Jan and although cold ruled it did get wamr enough often to hold overall accumulations down. It was a memorable winter for sure.

They should be updated in the next couple of days.

Yep, 2007-08 + 2008-09 were the snowiest back-to-back winters in Detroits history (beating 1898-99 + 1899-00 by almost 9"). But it was the year period of Feb 2008 - Jan 2009 that was just insane.

DTW:

Feb08- 24.2"

Mar08- 21.0"

Apr08- T

Nov08- 2.2"

Dec08- 21.4"

Jan09- 25.2"

Yearly total 2-1-08 thru 1-31-09: 94.0"

MBY:

Feb08- 24.2"

Mar08- 26.7"

Apr08- 0.1"

Nov08- 1.9"

Dec08- 21.4"

Jan09- 26.1"

Yearly total 2-1-08 thru 1-31-09: 100.4"

So basically 90-110" of snow covered the region in 1 years time, a timeframe that the region would average 40-50".

Here is for here!

BTL:

Feb08- 32.6"

Mar08- 13.0"

Apr08- T

Nov08- 6.4"

Dec08- 39.8"

Jan09- 46.0"

Yearly total 2-1-08 thru 1-31-09: 137.8"

Never realized that much fell in that period. What it says though is that it is possible to see that much in a winter.

Ofcourse here is 2008 Calendar yr Snowfall,

Jan08- 25.1"

Feb08- 32.6"

Mar08- 13.0"

Apr08- T

Nov08- 6.4"

Dec08- 39.8"

Total= 116.9" Which is the record now. It beat out 2000 which was 109.9"

ha, got the sig setup nicely. Gotta do that myself at some point.

Weenies!

And i thought i was bad..

[michsnowfreak]

ha, got the sig setup nicely. Gotta do that myself at some point.

Figured it was time to revamp it, esp since the detailed winter stats from 2010-11 were getting "outdated" as the new snow season is not far off . Then I figured what the heck, have to have some shout out to the impressive run of winters weve had the past decade.

[wisconsinwx]

Anyone want to go with predictions for their city/town yet? Maybe predictions for some major cities?

I'm going to go with 25" here, just so I can be pleasantly surprised if I get more. No really, my real prediction is 55". I feel this should be another above average season, but it's safe to go with barely above.

[okie333]

20" for Tulsa... not a joke or wishcast (read my thread on the main forum for insight on my reasoning).

[wisconsinwx]

20" for Tulsa... not a joke or wishcast (read my thread on the main forum for insight on my reasoning).

All it will take is one or two Groundhog Day Storm's tracking in a similar area for Tulsa to reach that mark! How much did you get with GHD last year?

[snowstormcanuck]

I was over at Eastern looking at last year's thread. I was pretty good for my imby (off by roughly an inch). I'll go with ~60" again in 2011-12.

[okie333]

All it will take is one or two Groundhog Day Storm's tracking in a similar area for Tulsa to reach that mark! How much did you get with GHD last year?

14" on 2/1... though there was 4" of "mostly cloudy" on 2/4 and 6" on 2/9.

Source: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/tsa/f6/f6.php?siteName=Tulsa_International_Airport&month=Feb&year=2011

My actual thoughts are 15-30+, though to be conservative I'm simply saying 20... honestly I've never seen a pattern with such potential in my life though (2009-2010 comes close, but the Niño was too strong, and in February the storms were super-suppressed [not often that an Okie says that] due to the anemic polar jet combined with the strong STJ and extreme -AO)... 15" is if none of the Niña-charged northern jet storms come through (only STJ waves and overrunners like the 2/4 and 2/9 systems were), 30+ is if a couple of phasers get in the right place. Phasing should happen more than usual this winter across the nation with an enhanced STJ (compared to what you would expect out of a moderate La Niña, at least) combined with an enhanced polar flow (the La Niña's main contribution to this winter's pattern [and last winter's]).

[Snowstorms]

I was reading that the long term -PDO pattern we're in will be a causal factor in the development of more Nina episodes over the next one to two decades. Even taking into account the disastrous 2009-10 winter, the last 4 winters here have averaged nearly 61" of snow, a good foot above normal. I don't want to get my hopes up but the 2010s might be a turning point in what has otherwise been steadily declining snowfall over the last 50 years.

I got about 60" last Winter too but I got nearly 100" in 2008-09 and over 100" in 2007-08 . The PDO turned negative back in 2007 and has been since. Since then every Winter expect 2009-10 featured above normal snowfall so I think it maybe a start of what happened back in the 40's-70's. The 70's featured one of the best Winters ever. The 80's and the 90's had one of the worst but since about 2000 its improved expect for a few exceptions like 2001-02, 2006-07 and 2009-10..

Though there's been an increase in Northern Hemisphere Winter snow cover since we began measuring to present date so thats a good change.

[hm8]

snowday.us forecast...

http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx

[JoMo]

14" on 2/1... though there was 4" of "mostly cloudy" on 2/4 and 6" on 2/9.

Source: http://www.srh.noaa....h=Feb&year=2011

My actual thoughts are 15-30+, though to be conservative I'm simply saying 20... honestly I've never seen a pattern with such potential in my life though (2009-2010 comes close, but the Niño was too strong, and in February the storms were super-suppressed [not often that an Okie says that] due to the anemic polar jet combined with the strong STJ and extreme -AO)... 15" is if none of the Niña-charged northern jet storms come through (only STJ waves and overrunners like the 2/4 and 2/9 systems were), 30+ is if a couple of phasers get in the right place. Phasing should happen more than usual this winter across the nation with an enhanced STJ (compared to what you would expect out of a moderate La Niña, at least) combined with an enhanced polar flow (the La Niña's main contribution to this winter's pattern [and last winter's]).

You think we will do that good around these parts eh?