Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Harry]

The real problem with post-Nina/2nd year Nina is the stj can become a bit flaccid, but the lakes region really seems to eek out alot of snow in different situations. 1975 and 2009 as a good example of two entirely different situations.

The main difference between 1975-76 vs 2008-09 was 08-09 was a weak nina and it had re-developed ( sorta like this year is supposed to do ) unlike 75-76 which was a borderline strong Nina ( stronger then last winter peaking at -1.7 vs -1.4 ) and a nina that had stayed mod/strong from 73-74 onward and thus never stopping. But yeah there really has never been what would be considered a bad weak nina in these parts either. And right now i am starting to bank on a weak nina.

If i had any concerns right now it would be the dryness that is expanding across IL/IN. Still early but something to watch for. Hopefully that Gulf system can take care of business from Texas on up to IL/IN.

[okie333]

Exactly where are they getting this? Honestly, that map has no rhyme or reason to it.

[AppsRunner]

Looks like the ECM along with almost every other model has a 08-09 strength Nina (if you would even call it that), doubt it will get -.7 on any trimonthlies at this point.

[Chambana]

The main difference between 1975-76 vs 2008-09 was 08-09 was a weak nina and it had re-developed ( sorta like this year is supposed to do ) unlike 75-76 which was a borderline strong Nina ( stronger then last winter peaking at -1.7 vs -1.4 ) and a nina that had stayed mod/strong from 73-74 onward and thus never stopping. But yeah there really has never been what would be considered a bad weak nina in these parts either. And right now i am starting to bank on a weak nina.

If i had any concerns right now it would be the dryness that is expanding across IL/IN. Still early but something to watch for. Hopefully that Gulf system can take care of business from Texas on up to IL/IN.

Tell me about it Harry, the drought conditions here in east central illinois are horrendous! Local farmers are saying, the crops are showing extreme heat stress, could be the worse drought since 1988.

Question for you though, Why aare you concerned for the drought and say it's "too early but something to watch for" do you think these drought conditions are going to be a player in this upcoming fall/winter?

[andyhb]

Sept. 1st SST (Looks like the blue is starting to appear more frequently in the East.)

[BowMeHunter]

Exactly where are they getting this? Honestly, that map has no rhyme or reason to it.

[okie333]

Then you tell me what teleconnection parameters would produce that combination of conditions.

[Roy]

Please no strong La Nina. It's so bad I'm about to put a hose on the roof to imitate rain here in West Texas. Lol

Like Farmer's Almanac though it won't happen...

[snowstormcanuck]

Not that the CFS is the be all and end all, but I am a little concerned about how many of its members get this winter's Nina near or into the strong category. Snowiness is not incompatible with a strong Nina, but you need other factors (-EPO, -NAO) to keep the SE ridge from going bonkers. If I had any control over this I'd keep ONI values around -1.

[Thunder Road]

Not that the CFS is the be all and end all, but I am a little concerned about how many of its members get this winter's Nina near or into the strong category. Snowiness is not incompatible with a strong Nina, but you need other factors (-EPO, -NAO) to keep the SE ridge from going bonkers. If I had any control over this I'd keep ONI values around -1.

a -NAO shouldn't be hard to come by, imo, given trends of the past 2 seasons. We also seem to have a persistent EC or MW trough these days which, if it sticks around into winter, would be excellent for us (when combined with decent Greenland blocking) even in the presence of a strong Nina. A strong Nina isn't the be-all-end-all of a winter even if it does present a hurdle.

Last season in Philly we had double our seasonal average on a strong Nina. Good blocking/+PNA can do wonders.

So basically I'm agreeing with what you said.

[Snowstorms]

Not that the CFS is the be all and end all, but I am a little concerned about how many of its members get this winter's Nina near or into the strong category. Snowiness is not incompatible with a strong Nina, but you need other factors (-EPO, -NAO) to keep the SE ridge from going bonkers. If I had any control over this I'd keep ONI values around -1.

The non PDF corrected SST chart from the CFS averages a very strong La Nina nearly -2.5 which in my opinion is a bit too extreme but we'll see since it has lead the way to another La Nina compared to other models.

Latest TAO map shows a -1.5 bubble popping up around region 3 and 3.4 which is very extreme and notice the very cold Subsurface waters.

Another Moderate-Strong La Nina wouldn't be so great in my opinion. Could end up like 1999-2000 perhaps, lol.

[Ottawa Blizzard]

I am going with the 1917-18 analog. Triple Phaser in mid-January. Will peak over Lake Erie at 958mb and drop 1-3 feet from gulf coast to canada.

1917-18 was an awesome year for snow and cold in both Toronto and Ottawa.

Toronto: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ON&StationID=5052&dlyRange=1895-11-01|1968-01-31&Year=1918&Month=1&Day=1

Ottawa: http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=ON&StationID=4333&dlyRange=1889-11-01|2011-09-07&Year=1918&Month=1&Day=1

[Snowstorms]

1917-18 was an awesome year for snow and cold in both Toronto and Ottawa.

Toronto: http://www.climate.w...8&Month=1&Day=1

Ottawa: http://www.climate.w...8&Month=1&Day=1

Very cold and snowy

I use this for Toronto;

http://www.climate.weatheroffice.gc.ca/climateData/monthlydata_e.html?timeframe=3&Prov=XX&StationID=5051&Year=1989&Month=4&Day=1#Year=1918

I personally think 1917-1918 is a reasonable analog. Was a second year Nina like this year, featured a -PDO and had a similar SOI pattern.

[wisconsinwx]

Does anyone think there's a realistic chance for an early season snowstorm (early to mid November basically)? It's been a long wait for interesting weather already, and waiting another three months for the first significant snowstorm might seem like an eternity.

[michsnowfreak]

Seeing those "1970s patterns" mentioned in Deedlers autumn outlook have me once again thinking, like a broken record, another snowy winter is on the way for southeast Michigan

[Chicago WX]

Yes, January 1918 was a dream come true for any lakes winter weather weenie. Incredible storms, incredible cold. I just shiver(no pun intended) thinking of it.

The December 1917 snowstorm was no joke either. Must have taken a App spine type track.

January 1918 was pretty special. Could make a case for Jan 1978 though, for a cold/snow combo. 1977 trumped 'em both in cold though...not so much snow.

[wisconsinwx]

Obviously the 08-09 analog seems to be coming up alot, but I've also seen 07-08 mentioned occasionally. That was the golden standard of winters around here, and 08-09 was a borderline top 10 snowfall winter in itself, so I can see why most projections are trending toward below average temps and above average snow.

[Harry]

January 1918 was pretty special. Could make a case for Jan 1978 though, for a cold/snow combo. 1977 trumped 'em both in cold though...not so much snow.

Snowfall was a bit above normal in Jan 1918 but as a whole that winter kinda sucked in these parts with 43.5" on the season and 25" of it falling in January. Jan 78 had almost 40" alone. Ofcourse 25" or so of it was from the blizzard. No comparison as far as i am concerned ATLEAST around here anyways. Nothing trumps a blizzard that dumps 2 feet of snow AND cold to hold the snow cover till late March. There was atleast 12+ on the ground from the day the blizzard hit till March 5th ( Heck 18+ till Feb 23rd ) and the last inch did not melt off till March 28th. This would be a dream. Only thing close would be 81-82 despite lacking a big blizzard the snowfall was great as was the snowcover and cold. To be honest 1917-18 would make me stab my eyes out seeing everywhere else get plastered not far away. Cold is useless to me without the snow unless there is a deep snowpack to protect.

Actually looking closer i would say 81-82 was very impressive with the cold shots which kept rolling into April. Snowfall was not stingy ANYWHERE to my knowledge in the region. One of the very few winters to feature daytime highs below zero. Even the famed cold winters of 76-77/77-78 did not have that. Around here they didn't.

[michsnowfreak]

1917-18 wasnt a horrible winter by any stretch of the imagination here, but it sounds like this areas definitely got the shaft snow-wise compared to most surrounding areas. Detroit had 38.4" of snow, which is slightly below normal, with the snowiest month of course being the aformentioned January with 18.6". Still, no big snowstorms hit, the winters biggest being 5.0" on Jan 11/12 (this was a fierce blizzard, however, as howling winds and rapidly dropping temps accompanied the snow, which buried areas south of here much deeper). January and February were snowcovered, with depth peaking at 10" on Jan 26-29th. Prior to this, a 12-day period of generally 4-6" snowpack was present, thanks to the seasons 2nd largest storm (4.9") on Dec 8th. However it was a bare Christmas. The winter does stand as the 4th coldest on record for Detroit (19.7F), so Im sure thats partly why the heavier snow seemed to be shunted to our south.

[Chicago WX]

Snowfall was a bit above normal in Jan 1918 but as a whole that winter kinda sucked in these parts with 43.5" on the season and 25" of it falling in January. Jan 78 had almost 40" alone. Ofcourse 25" or so of it was from the blizzard. No comparison as far as i am concerned ATLEAST around here anyways. Nothing trumps a blizzard that dumps 2 feet of snow AND cold to hold the snow cover till late March. There was atleast 12+ on the ground from the day the blizzard hit till March 5th ( Heck 18+ till Feb 23rd ) and the last inch did not melt off till March 28th. This would be a dream. Only thing close would be 81-82 despite lacking a big blizzard the snowfall was great as was the snowcover and cold. To be honest 1917-18 would make me stab my eyes out seeing everywhere else get plastered not far away. Cold is useless to me without the snow unless there is a deep snowpack to protect.

Actually looking closer i would say 81-82 was very impressive with the cold shots which kept rolling into April. Snowfall was not stingy ANYWHERE to my knowledge in the region. One of the very few winters to feature daytime highs below zero. Even the famed cold winters of 76-77/77-78 did not have that. Around here they didn't.

1977-78 and 1981-82 would be my favorites as well. Throw in 1978-79 and 1983-84, and on the whole, those were the glory days/period of winter (for cold and snow).

[michsnowfreak]

Yeah, the December 6-7 was a ohio valley/eastern lakes job. The 2nd one was the favorable one for western Michigan on January 6-7th and the most likely triple phaser hit eastern IND and western OH the hardest, though your area did ok on January 10-12.

There was also a storm in the 2nd half of January, likely a east to west type that dropped some decent snows I think.

The Dec storm dropped 4.9" here, the Jan 6/7 storm dropped just 2.3", and the Jan 11/12 dropped 5.0". (Jan also saw snows of 3.1" on the 1st and 3.6" on the 24th, in addition to all the nickel and diming)

[Harry]

1977-78 and 1981-82 would be my favorites as well. Throw in 1978-79 and 1983-84, and on the whole, those were the glory days/period of winter (for cold and snow).

Around here? Definitely agree. Both 77-78/78-79 were about the cold and big blizzards ( Granted Jan 79 was further west but it still dumped nearly 18 here ) while 81-82 had decent snows all across the region into April and cold to go along with it. Thing is that nearly everyone ( if one includes Dec 74 then it is everyone ) got a big blizzard. Jan 78 this region, Feb 78 the northeast, Jan 79 this region again but also included Chicago/WI, Feb 79 aka PD 1 from Richmond on north, 79/80 was south and east of DC. A truly remarkable stretch for the winter fans who like the big ones anyways.

That Dec 83 was pretty darn snowy around here. I believe it holds the 4 spot for snowiest December here? Jan was ok. No big storms but constant snows during alot of the month and thus i suspect the lake helped the cause. Feb sucked ( only 1.9" for the month ) but March was not too terrible. Snowfall for the winter as a whole was 68.4" and thus a little above normal. Both 84-85 ( only beat 83-84 by .1 and thus the total was 68.5" ) and 85-86 were very similar as well here with the seasonal totals. Main difference was 84-85/85-86 had much better Feb and not as robust Decembers. Only thing that would have driven me nuts was that Dec 26th 1984 event. To be THAT close ( Being hit on Christmas day ) and just miss. The storm hit on the 26th. YES Nobody in my house would have been allowed to open presents till the 26th that year! lol That massive les ( or whatever it was? ) in early Feb which brought the snow depth to over 2 feet ( amazing how many times this happened in the late 70s and 80s ) was a nice make up though.

[SpartyOn]

Nasty Southeast Ridge....... Most def geeked to see how this LA Nina unfolds.

[snowstormcanuck]

a -NAO shouldn't be hard to come by, imo, given trends of the past 2 seasons. We also seem to have a persistent EC or MW trough these days which, if it sticks around into winter, would be excellent for us (when combined with decent Greenland blocking) even in the presence of a strong Nina. A strong Nina isn't the be-all-end-all of a winter even if it does present a hurdle.

Last season in Philly we had double our seasonal average on a strong Nina. Good blocking/+PNA can do wonders.

So basically I'm agreeing with what you said.

Yes, I have read that we're in the midst of some type of decadal -NAO pattern. Although perusing the SNE thread, some of the mets here think it'll be less pronounced than the last couple of winters. But looking back at 2007-08, which was the last borderline strong Nina, we had a weakly +NAO throughout the entire winter, and it still delivered epic snowfall amounts, especially the further north you went. So, yeah, I'm not dreading a strong Nina. I'll definitely take it over a moderate or strong Nino regardless of the other teleconnections. But ideally, I'd like to keep ONI around -1.

[toronto blizzard]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

[snowstormcanuck]

The non PDF corrected SST chart from the CFS averages a very strong La Nina nearly -2.5 which in my opinion is a bit too extreme but we'll see since it has lead the way to another La Nina compared to other models.

Latest TAO map shows a -1.5 bubble popping up around region 3 and 3.4 which is very extreme and notice the very cold Subsurface waters.

Another Moderate-Strong La Nina wouldn't be so great in my opinion. Could end up like 1999-2000 perhaps, lol.

Per the tri-monthly ONI ratings during the core winter months, you could argue that 1999-2000 was only a weak Nina. Yet, it was still horrible as you mentioned. +/- ENSO provides us with a nice predictive guide based on averages. But there are always exceptions we'll have to brace ourselves for. Hopefully not this winter though.

[wisconsinwx]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

My particular area of Milwaukee County looked to have received b/w 110 and 120 inches that winter based on the estimated snowfall map. I'm pretty sure that's the record for my particular suburb, whatever the exact total was.

[snowstormcanuck]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

lol, I wouldn't care if the pattern this winter was forecasted to be identical to 2007-08. I wouldn't predict snowfall totals like that again. Remarkable, possibly once in a generation stuff in 07/08.

[baroclinic_instability]

NAM on some serious crack. 0Z NAM has snow for northern NE Wednesday afternoon (at 21Z of all times, not at night) with the arctic plunge lol. Quite honestly not sure what it is doing, but it does seem to have a total lack of modification as the front develops southward and possibly some spurious convective precip forcing which results in unrealistic column cooling.

[Thunder Road]

2007-08 :wub: :wub:

I had 6" that whole season in Philly. Don't even get me started. I feel so weird rooting for a weak/mod Nina, knowing back home they're all wishing for a weak/mod Nino