Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[River Card]

I don't think we'll see a prevalent Aleutian low in a Niña/-PDO regime...that's more an El Niño thing.

Thank you!

[michsnowfreak]

So we're "overdue" for a bad winter.

Joking joking dont hate me

Well, haha Id never hate ya even if you said least snowy winter ever coming. And yes we are sorta overdue for a stinker. But...it just seems like that doesnt want to happen. Look at the last 4 winters. 3 of the 4 are in Detroits top 8 snowiest winters on record, and the 1 that ended up near normal (2009-10) still had near record Feb snow, and absolutely none of the torches or temp swings that should accompany a strong El Nino in these parts, also had some decent snowcover in Jan-Feb, again, not your typical strong Nino.

Throw in the solar activity, a projected weak-moderate La Nina, and the recent snowy cycle we seem to be in....odds look good for another snowy winter. I could be wrong, but if you are a betting man, Id say come to my side lol.

[andyhb]

Not sure if anyone posted this yet, but look at that PDO drop from June to July...

2011** -0.92 -0.83 -0.69 -0.42 -0.37 -0.69 -1.86

Lowest it has been since January 2000...

[River Card]

Brett Anderson just posted the monthly euro and once again it consistently paints a milder but stormier scenario for the midwest and western gl areas.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/53809/new-computer-model-hints-for-fall-and-winter.asp

[Tropical]

I love Brett Andersons fall/winter forecast. Let's hope it comes true. Looks like he cuts the lows right over me.

[SoCoWx]

Seems like the Euro is going with atypical Nina climo. I dont currently agree with that. But meh, its a possibility.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Brett Anderson just posted the monthly euro and once again it consistently paints a milder but stormier scenario for the midwest and western gl areas.

http://www.accuweath...-and-winter.asp

I love Brett Andersons fall/winter forecast. Let's hope it comes true. Looks like he cuts the lows right over me.

Like clockwork.

[River Card]

Like clockwork.

I actually don't mind the winter bro...may not be my first choice for seasons but the amazing displays of fury to gorgeous tranquility cannot be ignored, it's an amazing time of year. I just posted the link, Harry is very good at dissecting the long range monthly's. Mild and stormy is good, would lead me to believe that it could wind up being snowy but with interludes of peace in between. Beats cold and dry.

[Harry]

Brett Anderson just posted the monthly euro and once again it consistently paints a milder but stormier scenario for the midwest and western gl areas.

http://www.accuweather.com/blogs/anderson/story/53809/new-computer-model-hints-for-fall-and-winter.asp

Wonder what he considers mild?

Here is what they show as far as temps go.

Normal to slightly below normal for Oct, Nov, and Dec ( Dec is slightly below normal east of MS river ) with the coldest just north and ene from here into the ne/ma.

Jan and more so Feb have a se ridge look with normal/slightly above normal line ( +0.5 to +1.0 ) running across the first row of counties in S.MI and below normal temps from Superior westward across the N.Plains on back to the PAC NW. In Feb The 1+ above normal line runs roughly along/just south of i70 from MD on back across S.IN/S.IL and right through St. Louis on back to S.KS and then runs down the TX/NM line.

Not what i would call mild especially from i70 on north. Temps are basically normal from along/near i80 on north especially when you average it all out.

[Hoosier]

Wonder what he considers mild?

Here is what they show as far as temps go.

Normal to slightly below normal for Oct, Nov, and Dec ( Dec is slightly below normal east of MS river ) with the coldest just north and ene from here into the ne/ma.

Jan and more so Feb have a se ridge look with normal/slightly above normal line ( +0.5 to +1.0 ) running across the first row of counties in S.MI and below normal temps from Superior westward across the N.Plains on back to the PAC NW. In Feb The 1+ above normal line runs roughly along/just south of i70 from MD on back across S.IN/S.IL and right through St. Louis on back to S.KS and then runs down the TX/NM line.

Not what i would call mild especially from i70 on north. Temps are basically normal from along/near i80 on north especially when you average it all out.

Do we know if the Euro is basing off of 1981-2010 normals?

[Harry]

Do we know if the Euro is basing off of 1981-2010 normals?

Interesting point. Possible i suppose? SV is still not fully updated yet but they are being worked on. Yes each site has to update their own maps.

[Thunder Road]

People keep talking about normal...what even is normal for Chicago and NW IN?

This whole thread is like the bizarro winter forecast to me with everyone rooting for a mod Nina and reminiscing on various apps runners.

[andyhb]

Saw this posted on another thread.

Aug. 15th SST

Aug. 18th SST

[River Card]

Saw this posted on another thread.

Aug. 15th SST

Aug. 18th SST

A lot of blue...wonder if this event becomes center based or in time basin wide, been hearing all kinds of theory's from east and west based....we shall see.

[JoMo]

JAMSTEC is updated for August.

Diggin the Precip forecast for Dec-Feb.

http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en

[Snowstorms]

Update on Nina on my blog along with updates for Hurricane Irene.

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/08/la-nina-update.html

[andyhb]

Aug. 25th SST:

[Snowstorms]

My fall outlook has been posted on my blog, check it out guys;

http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/2011/08/fall-outlook-for-north-america.html

If you have any questions ask me here or on my blog.

Winter outlook should be released sometime next week!

[Tim from Springfield (IL)]

My fall outlook has been posted on my blog, check it out guys;

http://weatherintoro...th-america.html

If you have any questions ask me here or on my blog.

Winter outlook should be released sometime next week!

Do you have any prediction on what the fall "second season" of severe weather and tornadoes could look like in the Midwest/Plains/Mid-South--particularly with your temperature predictions going from an above-normal October to below-normal in November in the Midwest--which makes me wonder if we could have another one of those active Novembers (or could the likes of "Octobomb II" be in the works on/around the Oct. 26 first anniversary of the original).

[Justin]

With Nina's, depending on the strength, I probably would tend to favor Michigan back to Southern Missouri up through the Ohio Valley and interior New England for big snows, including Southeast Canada getting hit a couple times too. But it always seems like climatology has shifted things a bit more Westward the last few Winters- but one of those was a Nina and one was a Nino sooo.... Anyways, when you look at a lot of the teleconnections I think a good majority of us in the Midwest will probably see less snow this upcoming Winter, but perhaps we see a bit more in the way of cold so what snow does fall sticks around a lot longer, we'll see. I really haven't sat down and analyzed everything with a fine tooth comb so maybe I'll do that this coming week and see what I come up with and post more specific thoughts.

I loved the Blizzard that mother nature gave me as a birthday present- she started on 2/1 couldn't have asked for better timing. That will probably be one of the best snow storms I'll ever see or remember and I'm happy we got a great one for a change. So if I get missed time and again this coming Winter, no big deal. We gotta spread the wealth a bit afterall.

[michsnowfreak]

With Nina's, depending on the strength, I probably would tend to favor Michigan back to Southern Missouri up through the Ohio Valley and interior New England for big snows, including Southeast Canada getting hit a couple times too.

[Snowstorms]

Do you have any prediction on what the fall "second season" of severe weather and tornadoes could look like in the Midwest/Plains/Mid-South--particularly with your temperature predictions going from an above-normal October to below-normal in November in the Midwest--which makes me wonder if we could have another one of those active Novembers (or could the likes of "Octobomb II" be in the works on/around the Oct. 26 first anniversary of the original).

Well I'm predicting drier than normal conditions for the region for much of Fall but given the set-up there could be bursts of severe weather from time to time but the chances of another Octobomb are still uncertain. What happens with storms and such is more of a short-term thing but the setup is somewhat ripe for such things to form given the La Nina and enhanced Polar Jet stream.

[Hoosier]

Well I'm predicting drier than normal conditions for the region for much of Fall but given the set-up there could be bursts of severe weather from time to time but the chances of another Octobomb are still uncertain. What happens with storms and such is more of a short-term thing but the setup is somewhat ripe for such things to form given the La Nina and enhanced Polar Jet stream.

Normal deep fall lows are pretty much a given I think. The Octobomb was a historically deep system...doubt we see anything as extreme as that but hey, you never know.

[okie333]

Well I'm predicting drier than normal conditions for the region for much of Fall but given the set-up there could be bursts of severe weather from time to time but the chances of another Octobomb are still uncertain. What happens with storms and such is more of a short-term thing but the setup is somewhat ripe for such things to form given the La Nina and enhanced Polar Jet stream.

It would actually be closer to the 8th most likely if it did happen.

[SpartyOn]

Super geeked for fall..personally its my favorite time of year. Also interesting in the fact that lower MI has a spike in the Tornado department in mid October..Its almost our "second" season around here.

[andyhb]

Super geeked for fall..personally its my favorite time of year. Also interesting in the fact that lower MI has a spike in the Tornado department in mid October..Its almost our "second" season around here.

Personally I'm just eager to see some more solid severe threats, without the chance of warm EML's and whatnot destroying the setups.

[snowstormcanuck]

It's September! We're getting so close to the good stuff I can feel it. Too early to look at the traditional variables guess. AFAICT, CPC doesn't forecast AO/NAO/PNA/EPO beyond the two week period. But regardless of the teleconnections, there's never been a "bad" weak Nina imby, so I am legitimately pumped for 2011-12.

#1 on my wishlist is for the ever elusive monster storm to pay a visit to YYZ. Still have not had 14"+ since 1999, and I've never experienced 18"+.

[Hoosier]

It's September! We're getting so close to the good stuff I can feel it. Too early to look at the traditional variables guess. AFAICT, CPC doesn't forecast AO/NAO/PNA/EPO beyond the two week period. But regardless of the teleconnections, there's never been a "bad" weak Nina imby, so I am legitimately pumped for 2011-12.

#1 on my wishlist is for the ever elusive monster storm to pay a visit to YYZ. Still have not had 14"+ since 1999, and I've never experienced 18"+.

How about moderate Ninas?

[snowstormcanuck]

How about moderate Ninas?

Same. Only the strong Ninas (such as 88-89) can cause us problems, although even they're variable. Some of the strong Ninas of the 1970s were prolific snow producers.

[hm8]