Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Harry]

Here's another interesting one,

Winner!!

reminds me...this is going to be the first winter season in like 12 years I've followed wx-wise, with no JB! Where will i get my hype fix?

Hi..

there really hasn't been any big western OH/ eastern IN hits that missed central OH lately. The last big one was Dec'04 and even then columbus was spilt between snow and icestorm. It seems the tracks have been way east or way west wrt central ohio...not too many cmh trackers recently...(i'm referring to storms coming up from the south...there have been some that have tracked in from the west that have gone over us and screwed us recently).

Last winter was close with the blizzard but still not a direct hit like Chicago got. Dryslot brushed by here. Still holding out for a true Jan 67, 78 or 79 type storm here. Thus one with well over 18", wind, the works.

Nothing wrong with storms from the south/southwest cutting through or near CMH.

Have had them but issue has been one of strength. We need a north moving sub 980mb bomb with a ton of GOM juice.

[River Card]

Harry noticed the winter of 1956/57 was a second year nina event, how did that winter shake out around Chicago? Active and cold start, wall to wall cold, or periods of snow and periods of tranquil? Thinking that could maybe be a possible year to look at regarding this winter?

[TimChgo9]

I found this on Tom Skilling's Facebook today..

My WGN colleague Rich Koeneman ran a fascinating analysis yesterday looking at Augusts, autumns & winters which followed summers with big July rains & comparable warmth. Augusts in these situations trended above normal. But add big July rains (like those which just occurred), and Augusts fell closer to normal on temps, even biasing a bit blo normal. 5 winters identified as following summers like this one, showed a distinct snowy bias!

So, I wonder... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

[WestMichigan]

Hopefully Skilling is on to something....

[BeastFromTheEast]

I found this on Tom Skilling's Facebook today..

So, I wonder... :snowman: :snowman: :snowman:

We're gonna get buried!

[River Card]

We're gonna get buried!

Bite your tongue...lol, no reason to think based on the last 5 years or so that this wetter and colder pattern doesn't continue. Gotta think north of I-80 could be very active Dec-Jan-Feb.

[River Card]

Here is an interesting read about the upcoming winter from a dude I follow on twitter. Check it out, East Coast might be having some gun this year, talking big -NAO, hopefully good for all of us.

http://freehold.patch.com/blog_posts/warm-atlantic-may-spell-trouble-in-the-fall-and-winter

[snowlover2]

This little tid bit from Joe Bastardi was posted in another forum. Thought i'd share it here.

Winter: A winter as harsh as last year for much of the nation is in the making. The analog package with 1917-1918 thrown in is colder than the modeling, but the modeling is heading that way. In addition, a crash in the global temperature as I am forecasting from the overall max that has developed, though it's cooler than last year, is something that means one should be willing to bet the cold card before the warm one. I am actually researching, behind the scenes, the relationship between low level temp bias and the trend of the global temps. The forecast of that is for a strong fall, equal to last year, but starting at a lower point than last year, but the point is the trend seems to help make the cold areas colder and the warm areas less warm, once into the temperate regions. Again this is theory, I dont mind sharing it with you, but it's not anything that will "determine" the forecast, just something that may help out a bit, much the way some spice may help a meal. But looking at the CFS and CFSV2 and then the analogs, you have to realize that the current blend of the three LOOK LIKE A FORECAST HERE FOR THE WINTER THAT FIRST CAME OUT IN MAY!

[Thundersnow12]

This little tid bit from Joe Bastardi was posted in another forum. Thought i'd share it here.

Thanks for sharing.

Those warm temps in the Atlantic off the east coast are a good sign of a impressive negative NAO.

[snowlover2]

This was just posted in the accu weather forum by a well respected member and moderator and it came from FB. It's rather lengthy as you'll see.

--- REVIEW ---

The past two boreal winters have featured some extreme conditions around the world. In 2009-2010, the strongest west-based El Nino on record developed in the central equatorial Pacific, forced by three significant westerly wind bursts combined with persistent trade winds over the east Pacific. In concert with a strong easterly QBO, a record breaking low index NAM developed. This pattern contributed to multiple historic snow storms for the eastern U.S. The summer of 2010 followed with a massive transformation of the general circulation. Intensifying trade winds spread cooler waters westward, and a moderate La Nina was rapidly developing. Consequently, tropical forcing made a complete 180. In addition, the QBO westerly shear zone was rapidly descending. Combined with depleted ozone from the strong El Nino, the SAM was persistently in a high index state through the austral winter. Despite the preset conditions of a moderate La Nina and westerly QBO, the winter of 2010-11 once again featured a predominantly low index NAM. And once again, major snow storms pounded the northeast U.S. in December and January.

Since January, the La Nina has weakened, in fact at a very fast rate through April and May. Current conditions in the equatorial Pacific may be considered as neutral, though the general circulation still displays characteristics of La Nina. For example, twin upper level cyclones have been persistent over the eastern Pacific. In addition, a solidly negative PDO remains in place with above normal SSTs over the north Pacific and cold SSTs along the North America west coast. The result has been dominating ridging over the North Pacific, a downstream trough over the western U.S., and ridging over the central Plains and Midwest. One big effect of this pattern is the historic heat wave that has impacted the eastern two thirds of the nation this summer. Another persistent feature in the last couple months has been above normal heights over the Arctic. At the same time, heights have been predominantly above normal across the midlatitudes as well, with ridging over the Pacific, Atlantic, northern Europe, and central Russia. So calculations of the AO may return a weak signal, but the NAM is still in a low-index state.

In the stratosphere, westerly anomalies around 30 to 70mb continue to slowly diminish, while the easterly shear zone descends. As a result, 30mb temperatures have cooled over the equator and have warmed significantly over the subtropics. Temperatures throughout the stratosphere will continue to cool over the equator, and warm off-equator, as the easterlies descend and become more dominant. The QBO in July was close to zero, and it will continue to decrease through the fall and winter.

The combination of a moderate La Nina and warm equatorial stratosphere last winter resulted in suppressed convection near the dateline, and primary tropical forcing over Indonesia. By April, the MJO was becoming active again, though was still suppressed in the central and eastern Pacific. Recently, the low-frequency forcing regime has become less dominant, and convection has migrated eastward over the last few months. The cooling equatorial stratosphere will continue to promote stronger tropical forcing, further east. At the same time, this will dampen off-equator convection, perhaps also prematurely ending the Northern Hemisphere hurricane season.

Anomalous westerly winds associated with convection in the west Pacific occasionally migrate toward the dateline in association with the MJO, however anomalous trade winds are still in control of the central Pacific for the most part. This results in convergence averaged near 160E ... where weak low frequency forcing currently resides. While the La Nina weakened considerably over the spring and early summer, it will likely rebuild this fall. Subsurface anomalies have cooled notably over the last month, and the persistent Nina general circulation suggests that the we will not make it over the proverbial hump. Forecast models all support the redevelopment of at least a weak La Nina this winter. However, the increasing equatorial convection associated with the descending negative QBO makes me cautious to go with anything more than a weak Nina. At the same time, QBO-related SLP anomalies can encourage mountain torque events over the Andes that yields stronger trades over the eastern Pacific, pumping colder waters north and west. The main effect of this will be try to focus cold anomalies east (i.e. an east-based La Nina). In this preset, MJO related forcing may propagate into the central Pacific, while convection is predominantly suppressed over the eastern Pacific and South America. This weakens the South America hadley circulation, which would encourage a negative NAO regime over the North Atlantic.

One last consideration for the preset is snow and ice cover, which is near all-time minimums right now. However, meaningful statistical correlation to the NAM and winter midlatitude temp anomalies is usually limited to October during snow and ice recovery. Intra-annual cycle (period ~195 days) in the NAM would suggest a high index state for the fall, which would promote a fast recovery. Also of note, the intra-annual cycle will be in a low index state for the winter...

Now to apply intra-seasonal variation on top of the preset...

--- DECEMBER ---

The start of the month looks generally warm and dry for much of the nation, outside the Northwest where disturbances will amplify downstream of Pacific ridging. Stormier weather will be introduced into the eastern half of the nation for the second half of the month, with colder air reaching the Plains.

Mean vortex anomalies will be found over Siberia, western Canada (strong), and eastern Europe. Ridging will dominate the north Pacific up through the Aleutians, with weaker ridging over the northeast Atlantic toward Europe, and above normal heights across the southern U.S. Disturbances will track under the west Canada trough, and get whisked quickly across the central Plains along the gradient between the Canadian vortex and southern heights. East based NAO block will fail for the most part to suppress heights on the east coast against ridging over the southeast, while disturbances amplify downstream of southern plains ridging. Meanwhile, heights are pumped up toward Newfoundland. The amplification may offer the possibility of a late blooming Miller B clipping eastern New England.

The middle of the month will follow typical evolution of frictional torque, with a major trough ejecting south from the vortex over Canada. This will scour out southern Plains ridging, leading to a significant storm tracking into the Ohio Valley and Northeast around Dec 15-20. Amplification of the wave pattern into eastern Canada will help retrograde the east-based NAO block into Greenland. Following this event, ridging is established in the southeast U.S., and over the northeast Pacific in a developing Rex block. Vortex anomaly stretches across central Canada and down the Rockies. Baroclinic zone is now well established from the central Plains into the Tennessee Valley. Disturbance ejecting out of the southwest will follow zone toward the Mid Atlantic, with redeveloping storm affecting the Northeast in the final week.

--- JANUARY ---

The first half of the month will feature a major arctic outbreak across the eastern two thirds of the nation, accompanied by a number of snow and ice threats. A thaw is likely for the second half of the month across much of the nation, while still maintaining stormy conditions in the northern tier.

Developing highly amplified quasi-stationary pattern across the North Pacific and Canada, crossing the Rockie Mountains, supports upward planetary wave propogation, and given preset of the stratosphere, a major stratospheric warming is possible to end the month of December. Following typical time scale, the NAM should respond by the end of the first week. Combined with favorable forcing in the Pacific as high amplitude MJO progresses eastward, this will trigger a rapid displacement of the Canada vortex south into the already established long wave trough in the Plains. This fits the recipe for a major Miller A storm for the eastern half of the nation around Jan 4-9.

Clipper track and Miller A track will be predominant following this event, keeping much of the nation, outside the Gulf and east coast, on the dry side. Given the expected forcing on top of the preset, should see strong blocking that will support storm tracks through the Mid Atlantic and off the New England coast through week 2.

As MJO forcing diminishes east of the dateline, a resurgence of the southeast ridge will shift the storm track north, and introduce ice threat for Mid Atlantic region. Cyclonic wave breaking northeast of the ridge into eastern Canada and the Davis Straight will break down the NAO block / shift it east, though the NAM remains slightly negative. Renewed Indian Ocean convection by week 2 will trigger east Asia mountain torque that sets the stage by the end of the month for westerlies gaining latitude and rising heights. This is generally a warmer signal for much of the nation, though transient troughs will keep the Northwest cool and stormy and this may translate into the Plains and Ohio Valley as disturbances amplify downstream of the East Pacific ridge. Vortex still over east Canada fighting against southeast ridging will increase gradients, presenting possible overrunning scenarios for the end of the month.

--- FEBRUARY ---

First half starts out on the warm side, with cool and wet weather confined to the Northwest. Colder and stormier weather returns in the center of the nation, with southwest flow into the east, offering snow and ice threats in the northeast for the second half.

February looks to be dictated primarily by a La Nina regime with low AAM through all levels of the atmosphere, and primary forcing focused near Indonesia and the west Pacific. Anomalously high latitude westerlies to start the month will keep the nation on the warm side initially, apart from the Pacific Northwest. Another friction torque event by end of the first week sends Canadian airmass south into the Plains. Negative AAM tendency propagating poleward will help intensify ridging from the North Pacific into Alaska, continuing to drain colder air south. Moderate ridging develops over the southeast, with typical cycle of troughs diving into the western Plains and breaking in the Ohio Valley. Considering preset conditions, presents more overrunning opportunities in New England for the second half of the month. Another stratospheric warming is possible at the end of the month, but most effects will be during March, which may for the first time in several years be a wintry month.

[Chicago Storm]

This was just posted in the accu weather forum by a well respected member and moderator and it came from FB. It's rather lengthy as you'll see.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22997-preliminary-outlook-for-winter-2011-12/

[snowlover2]

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/22997-preliminary-outlook-for-winter-2011-12/

Thanks Joe. Never saw that.

[Snowstorms]

Hi, kind of new to these forums but I've been an active member at Accuweather since 2009 but I decided to join this site as well.

Anyways I'll be posting my thoughts and possibilities on this Winter in the coming weeks and I hope its a great Winter

Nice to meet you guys

[River Card]

Hi, kind of new to these forums but I've been an active member at Accuweather since 2009 but I decided to join this site as well.

Anyways I'll be posting my thoughts and possibilities on this Winter in the coming weeks and I hope its a great Winter

Nice to meet you guys

Big welcome to you as well!

[snowlover2]

Henry Margusity put out his preliminary winter outlook.

Henry's Outlook

[pondo1000]

Henry Margusity put out his preliminary winter outlook.

Henry's Outlook

Beat me to it! Kiss of death being in his bullseye especially this far out!

[BowMeHunter]

Henry Margusity put out his preliminary winter outlook.

Henry's Outlook

That's pretty much what my first and last call would look like. Congrats, Henry.

[Stebo]

Wait Henry thinks that there will be heavy snow in Central PA. Just like every storm last winter...

[Stevo6899]

Wait Henry thinks that there will be heavy snow in Central PA. Just like every storm last winter...

Lol I'm hyped for jbs outlook, or maybe it already came out? Always will remember last year he was way off as most were. Forget what he said but i remember him changing his second half forecast like 5 times

[OHweather]

I'm a little worried that Henry has Detroit in "normal" snowfall this winter.

Looks pretty normal for a weak to moderate La Nina, but with the consistent high latitude blocking the last two years it feels like normal La Nina climo might not work perfectly.

[Hoosier]

I'm a little worried that Henry has Detroit in "normal" snowfall this winter.

Looks pretty normal for a weak to moderate La Nina, but with the consistent high latitude blocking the last two years it feels like normal La Nina climo might not work perfectly.

Agree...still way early but I'm inclined to think below average temps in much of the Midwest/eastern US and yes including the southeast.

[River Card]

Agree...still way early but I'm inclined to think below average temps in much of the Midwest/eastern US and yes including the southeast.

Hoosier, A STL met I follow thinks that we will make a rapid descension into winter as in a bang scenario but also thinks this winter will work in streaks of cold and storminess and periods of mild and a torch or two and rather tranquil weather. He does think that the winter will last much through March though. He thinks the brunt of the snow falls early Dec into Mid Jan and a mild Feb. Also of note, been hearing 2008/09 thrown around but wasn't that year a +/qbo where as this year the -qbo is likely...2 different animals right?

[nzucker]

I am just starting some preliminary ideas for winter, but I think this promises to be a cold winter in a weak La Niña with a -NAO/-AO regime well entrenched due to the continuing low solar activity. We've seen some pretty brutal arctic outbreaks in these weaker La Niñas such as January 2009, February 1996, and December 1983, so that's of course something to look out for as the Niña coupled with a -PDO regime promotes an amplified Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge that will at times tap the North Pole to bring cold air and the polar vortex into Canada. I think snowfall may be somewhat less than we have become accustomed to in the Northern Tier, which could be tied to the ongoing drought in much of the Southern Plains, but the storm tracks I noted are just first thoughts:

[Stevo6899]

I understand how forecasters could sort of predict the enso but what gives them the confidence to say there will be a strong/weak Nao? Is it normal for there to be strong blocking in weak Nina's?

[River Card]

I am just starting some preliminary ideas for winter, but I think this promises to be a cold winter in a weak La Niña with a -NAO/-AO regime well entrenched due to the continuing low solar activity. We've seen some pretty brutal arctic outbreaks in these weaker La Niñas such as January 2009, February 1996, and December 1983, so that's of course something to look out for as the Niña coupled with a -PDO regime promotes an amplified Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge that will at times tap the North Pole to bring cold air and the polar vortex into Canada. I think snowfall may be somewhat less than we have become accustomed to in the Northern Tier, which could be tied to the ongoing drought in much of the Southern Plains, but the storm tracks I noted are just first thoughts:

Is it to soon to guage where the Aluetian low setsup? I understand placement is key as to cold or mild....when would be a good time to track it? I know the past 2 weeks have been active around Anchorage...not sure what that means with respect to the aluetian low.

[Quixotic1]

I am just starting some preliminary ideas for winter, but I think this promises to be a cold winter in a weak La Niña with a -NAO/-AO regime well entrenched due to the continuing low solar activity. We've seen some pretty brutal arctic outbreaks in these weaker La Niñas such as January 2009, February 1996, and December 1983, so that's of course something to look out for as the Niña coupled with a -PDO regime promotes an amplified Aleutian/Kamchatka ridge that will at times tap the North Pole to bring cold air and the polar vortex into Canada. I think snowfall may be somewhat less than we have become accustomed to in the Northern Tier, which could be tied to the ongoing drought in much of the Southern Plains, but the storm tracks I noted are just first thoughts:

Oh man. I still dream of Dec '83. Most awesome outbreak ever.

Think the STJ will strengthen at all this year with the Nina being presumptively weaker?

[michsnowfreak]

I'm a little worried that Henry has Detroit in "normal" snowfall this winter.

Looks pretty normal for a weak to moderate La Nina, but with the consistent high latitude blocking the last two years it feels like normal La Nina climo might not work perfectly.

I know, a snow-hole sandwiched in between above normal snow? What gives? Detroit has been running so much above normal lately though, im not worried. We are in a good cycle.

[hm8]

I know, a snow-hole sandwiched in between above normal snow? What gives? Detroit has been running so much above normal lately though, im not worried. We are in a good cycle.

So we're "overdue" for a bad winter.

Joking joking dont hate me

[nzucker]

Is it to soon to guage where the Aluetian low setsup? I understand placement is key as to cold or mild....when would be a good time to track it? I know the past 2 weeks have been active around Anchorage...not sure what that means with respect to the aluetian low.

I don't think we'll see a prevalent Aleutian low in a Niña/-PDO regime...that's more an El Niño thing.

[Snowstorms]

It would be nice to see some Gulf Lows developing and moving up north along the App. Mountains. Perhaps a storm like the December 15-16th, 2007 Storm.

The setup would have to be amazing though. Weak Bermuda High in the Atlantic, with the PV centered further north to allow cold air to pool in on the northern tier along with a healthy +PNA ridge. Other factors like a moderately strong STJ would add alot of juice to the storm.

Using selected analogues that I believe are similar to this year along with ENSO and other teleconnections I get this;

Seems fairly reasonable. I know 1977-78 was a Nino though the -NAO/-AO seems comparable.