michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Detroit 41.4" Flint 44.9" Lansing 48.8" Grand Rapids 73.2" Hmmm...per DTX the 1981-2010 normals are 42.7" for DTW and 47.4" for FNT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nelson Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Haven't had a 300 plus winter in a long time. We are over due. The last one I believe was '95-'96 where we had 329. Almost beat the all time record sent in '78. I moved up here Jan 1996. I couldn't even see over the snow banks driving my 3/4 ton van. I had to stand up in my seat to get a glimpse over the banks at the intersections and that was here in Houghton-Hancock. There were plenty of fender benders due to people pulling out in front of other cars. It was much worse in the higher elevations north and south of here. Was up at Tech for '95-'96. Definitely one to remember, though I was drunk for a lot of it so don't necessarily "remember" it but I have some pics! Good luck to you this winter. I know it's been awhile for you guys. My in-laws are in Ishpeming so i still get a chance to come up every now and then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Haven't had a 300 plus winter in a long time. We are over due. The last one I believe was '95-'96 where we had 329. Almost beat the all time record sent in '78. I moved up here Jan 1996. I couldn't even see over the snow banks driving my 3/4 ton van. I had to stand up in my seat to get a glimpse over the banks at the intersections and that was here in Houghton-Hancock. There were plenty of fender benders due to people pulling out in front of other cars. It was much worse in the higher elevations north and south of here. Ive been up your way many moons ago in Jan....Just so people know this post isnt a lie..snow banks get crazy high up there. Correct me if I'm wrong but isnt there a massive radar hole there? And sir..... There is no need for you to ever wish for snow...you get it with no questions asked.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Hmmm...per DTX the 1981-2010 normals are 42.7" for DTW and 47.4" for FNT. The raw averages won't match the official averages for all stations. They smooth the data. Maybe that's why there is a difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 The raw averages won't match the official averages for all stations. They smooth the data. Maybe that's why there is a difference. Im curious where dmc got the 41.4" and 44.9" though, i got the 42.7" and 47.4" from DTX websites updated normals. Yeah I never understood that though, how they smooth out the data lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Im curious where dmc got the 41.4" and 44.9" though, i got the 42.7" and 47.4" from DTX websites updated normals. Yeah I never understood that though, how they smooth out the data lol. I googled it I thought the 44.9" was a little skimpy for Flint Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Besides being a decent article, this is really funny: http://www.winonadailynews.com/news/local/article_5d12b282-f551-11e0-be3f-001cc4c002e0.html I think the writer of this must frequent this board with his mention of woolly bear caterpillars. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wishforsnow Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 What percentage of your annual average would you estimate is synoptic snow? I'm sure lake effect accounts for well over 100" up there. It's fun looking at how often the N Wisconsin and UP of Michigan snowbelts get 6"+ events just from lake effect. Local weatherman says 85% of the snow we receive is lake effect and the rest synoptic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 21, 2011 Share Posted October 21, 2011 Was reading Roger Smith on the general discussion board and like most of you is very bright. I'm wondering why his winter forecast is so radically different than most of the concensus? I will post the link, perhaps this might be a good educational debate. I have seen enough nina events to easily be in the colder and stormier camp but why is this forecast so different? Also read his follow up comments later down the column. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/20-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Was reading Roger Smith on the general discussion board and like most of you is very bright. I'm wondering why his winter forecast is so radically different than most of the concensus? I will post the link, perhaps this might be a good educational debate. I have seen enough nina events to easily be in the colder and stormier camp but why is this forecast so different? Also read his follow up comments later down the column. http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/forum/20-weather-forecasting-and-discussion/ You are one of the most transparent posters on the board. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 22, 2011 Share Posted October 22, 2011 Was reading Roger Smith on the general discussion board and like most of you is very bright. I'm wondering why his winter forecast is so radically different than most of the concensus? I will post the link, perhaps this might be a good educational debate. I have seen enough nina events to easily be in the colder and stormier camp but why is this forecast so different? Also read his follow up comments later down the column. http://www.americanw...and-discussion/ Nice troll signature, keep offering nothing to the table as usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 Saw this article on accuwrong and thought I would share it. Certainly makes sense. How will Arctic sea ice loss affect the winter? NOAA's annual Arctic Report Card discussed the fact that recent record sea ice loss in the summer in the Arctic is having major impacts on winter weather over the continents of the Northern Hemisphere. The Report Card states, "There continues to be significant excess heat storage in the Arctic Ocean at the end of summer due to continued near-record sea ice loss. There is evidence that the effect of higher air temperatures in the lower Arctic atmosphere in fall is contributing to changes in the atmospheric circulation in both the Arctic and northern mid-latitudes. Winter 2009 - 2010 showed a new connectivity between mid-latitude extreme cold and snowy weather events and changes in the wind patterns of the Arctic; the so-called Warm Arctic-Cold Continents pattern...With future loss of sea ice, such conditions as winter 2009 - 2010 could happen more often. Thus we have a potential climate change paradox. Rather than a general warming everywhere, the loss of sea ice and a warmer Arctic can increase the impact of the Arctic on lower latitudes, bringing colder weather to southern locations." As a specific example of what the Report Card is talking about, Francis et al. (2009) found that during 1979 - 2006, years that had unusually low summertime Arctic sea ice had a 10 - 20% reduction in the temperature difference between the Equator and North Pole. This resulted in a weaker jet stream with slower winds that lasted a full six months, through fall and winter. The weaker jet caused a weaker Aleutian Low and Icelandic Low during the winter, resulting in a more negative Arctic Oscillation (AO), allowing cold air to spill out of the Arctic and into Europe and the Eastern U.S. Thus, Arctic sea ice loss may have been partially responsible for the record negative AO observed during the winter of 2009 - 2010, and strongly negative AO last winter. If the Arctic Report Card is right, we'll be seeing more of this pattern during coming winters--possibly even during the winter of 2011 - 2012, since Arctic sea ice loss this year was virtually tied with 2007 as the greatest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 24, 2011 Share Posted October 24, 2011 You shouldn't have. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted October 26, 2011 Share Posted October 26, 2011 I can guarantee a below average snow fall, and above average temps this winter. I am buying a snowblower.... That's it, winter cancel. Because, as soon as you prepare for something... it doesn't happen. Of course this is absolute fallacy, but I thought some humor, or reasonable representation thereof, was in order. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KokomoWX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 I can guarantee a below average snow fall, and above average temps this winter. I am buying a snowblower.... That's it, winter cancel. Because, as soon as you prepare for something... it doesn't happen. Of course this is absolute fallacy, but I thought some humor, or reasonable representation thereof, was in order. Hoosier and ChicagoWX already cancelled my winter so thanks for piling it on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hoosier and ChicagoWX already cancelled my winter so thanks for piling it on. For the record, I haven't put out my final guess yet. Digging a little deeper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 Hoosier and ChicagoWX already cancelled my winter so thanks for piling it on. lol, at least I didn't go torch. I was much too low on snowfall last winter if it's any consolation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 27, 2011 Share Posted October 27, 2011 lol, at least I didn't go torch. I was much too low on snowfall last winter if it's any consolation. Im riding the Accuwx/DT train... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sc2man13 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Bill Steffen's winter forecast FWIW: http://blogs.woodtv.com/2011/10/27/the-winter-forecast-shovel-ready/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TimChgo9 Posted October 28, 2011 Share Posted October 28, 2011 Just reading several of the predictions for the winter season. It's going to be an interesting season., (new snowblower not withstanding) especially around the Great Lakes. I am thinking another 50'+ snow fall this winter. It looks like a safe bet. But, like anything else, we will have to wait and see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Really liking the way the weather pattern has been shaping up for the past few weeks. This pattern seems to want to continue also for the next week or two also. I have a feeling the Winter lovers may really start liking the set up about a week to ten days for now if some of the models today are correct. Should be seeing a Winter Storm tracking thread in about ten days or so I bet (for the MidWest not Rockies/surrounding area). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 Really liking the way the weather pattern has been shaping up for the past few weeks. This pattern seems to want to continue also for the next week or two also. I have a feeling the Winter lovers may really start liking the set up about a week to ten days for now if some of the models today are correct. Should be seeing a Winter Storm tracking thread in about ten days or so I bet (for the MidWest not Rockies/surrounding area). I don't know if I would go that soon but def think the last 3rd of the month into December will start to get more snow chances around here. Some models have been trying to show a cutter around D7/8 but its just too warm. The 0z GFS has a nice looking system but no cold air to work with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Justin Posted November 3, 2011 Share Posted November 3, 2011 I don't know if I would go that soon but def think the last 3rd of the month into December will start to get more snow chances around here. Some models have been trying to show a cutter around D7/8 but its just too warm. The 0z GFS has a nice looking system but no cold air to work with. Oh I agree the system next week doesn't look to Wintry to me... its a couple of systems way out in fantasy land around days 10-15. I think someone is going to be shoveling something out in that time frame...just a question of where in the Midwest the shoveling will be happening. I'd guess somewhere in Nebraska, Iowa, Wisconsin, and Minnesota. But way, way, way to early to pin anything down. The pattern in that time frame just looks significantly colder and continued stormy...with systems rolling out of the Southern Rockies. I think that any one of those systems will likely send a potential of severe storms from the Southern Great Lakes Southward too. Anyways, I'll be watching how the cold air moves, how locked in the models stay with the potential, and how they handle the overall upper air pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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