BowMeHunter Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 If we get a +NAO and a persistent SE ridge, I think 1949-50 might be a good analog for this winter. I'll take Joe Bastradi's call for the winter of 2007-08 to be like 1949-50 for 1000 please Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 at people expecting a blizzard > 15". I think Detroit might have 3 that significant in about 130 years of data. But...no reason for anyone to give up the relentless hope. Not expecting...Just wanting! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 at people expecting a blizzard > 15". I think Detroit might have 3 that significant in about 130 years of data. The thing to keep in mind is how many years someplace in SE Michigan got 15". It might not be widespread, but if you were to list the top snowstorm amount from each season for SE Michigan, I think you'd be surprised how often a 15" + total occurred at least somewhere. I'd be willing to bet that almost every winter in SE Michigan, somebody picked up a foot from a storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The thing to keep in mind is how many years someplace in SE Michigan got 15". It might not be widespread, but if you were to list the top snowstorm amount from each season for SE Michigan, I think you'd be surprised how often a 15" + total occurred at least somewhere. I'd be willing to bet that almost every winter in SE Michigan, somebody picked up a foot from a storm. DMC would know...he lives atop of Mt Orion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The thing to keep in mind is how many years someplace in SE Michigan got 15". It might not be widespread, but if you were to list the top snowstorm amount from each season for SE Michigan, I think you'd be surprised how often a 15" + total occurred at least somewhere. I'd be willing to bet that almost every winter in SE Michigan, somebody picked up a foot from a storm. ...exactly how much money? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 DMC would know...he lives atop of Mt Orion. A whopping 2 events at +15": Dec 00' 17.5" in 24 hrs, 20" fell in Port Huron New years day storm 08 16.5" 12" in 4 hrs chasing 20" in the Detroit area. Trent... storms of a foot or more is almost impossible for Detroit. It happens like once every 15 years and I might be generous with that amount of years. If all the models with in 24 hrs shows a storm of a foot or more. Some way some how Detroit ends with 6-7 inches. FACT! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The City of Detroit and points south maybe a different story. But once you cross the metro zone snow belts of 94 ,696 and M59 its a different situation and the frequency of 15 inch snows increases. Esspecially in the higher elevations of Oakland County. In fact I would say that M59 is the essential localized Metro Detroit snow belt. With 69 being the SEMI at large snow belt. Maybe the snow freak could do us some research on Pontiac 12+ snows compared to Detroit 12+ storms. I would bet a penny that Pontiac holds the title over Detroit in frequency. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The thing to keep in mind is how many years someplace in SE Michigan got 15". It might not be widespread, but if you were to list the top snowstorm amount from each season for SE Michigan, I think you'd be surprised how often a 15" + total occurred at least somewhere. I'd be willing to bet that almost every winter in SE Michigan, somebody picked up a foot from a storm. Yeah those areas would be localized to the higher terrain of W. Oakland County and up into the Thumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 ...exactly how much money? To clarify I was talking about the entire SE Michigan region. You can find a foot storm pretty much every winter. I just went to the DTX site and perused the archives just quickly trying to find high amounts. Not going through every event this is what I've found for maxes just casually looking. 10/11 - 14" Port Huron 09/10 - 12.4" Saginaw 08/09 - 12.9" Montrose 07/08 - There was the widespread 15"+ storm from Oakland Co north in Feb 06/07 - For some reason no maps appear for this season. 05/06 - 12" Lapeer 04/05 - 15.5" Port Hope 03/04 - 12" St. Clair 02/03 - 17" Port Huron 01/02 - 12" Midland 00/01 - The Dec 11 blizzard was widespread foot and then of course the 99 New year's blizzard So of the last 13 seasons, at least 5 had 15+ amounts somewhere. Even if you narrowed it to just Washtenaw, Wayne, Oakland, Macomb I bet you could find a 10"+ amount 90% of winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 A whopping 2 events at +15": Dec 00' 17.5" in 24 hrs, 20" fell in Port Huron New years day storm 08 16.5" 12" in 4 hrs chasing 20" in the Detroit area. Trent... storms of a foot or more is almost impossible for Detroit. It happens like once every 15 years and I might be generous with that amount of years. If all the models with in 24 hrs shows a storm of a foot or more. Some way some how Detroit ends with 6-7 inches. FACT! ? I wouldn't go that far as last year we saw it go the other way around countless times. It depends on which model your looking at...JMA ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 The City of Detroit and points south maybe a different story. But once you cross the metro zone snow belts of 94 ,696 and M59 its a different situation and the frequency of 15 inch snows increases. Esspecially in the higher elevations of Oakland County. In fact I would say that M59 is the essential localized Metro Detroit snow belt. With 69 being the SEMI at large snow belt. Maybe the snow freak could do us some research on Pontiac 12+ snows compared to Detroit 12+ storms. I would bet a penny that Pontiac holds the title over Detroit in frequency. Its a very temperamental area when it comes to snow. Draw a line from Ann Arbor to Port Huron points Northward thats where you have a chance for the "big one" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 ? I wouldn't go that far as last year we saw it go the other way around countless times. It depends on which model your looking at...JMA ? Its just hypothetical. If it were to happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Wait a second..I would say all areas are tempermental in regards to snow belting..For instance it could go the other way for Cities like Chicago in which their synaptic systems will merge with the lake to yield higher totals than the western suburbs. Its the same theory with severe we had at the start of the severe season..that is "screw zones" and do they exist. Its important to understand how rare 15+ inch synaptic systems are for any non lake or ocean areas. @DMC.. That New Years storms was so amazing! time to put that write up in the GL snow events thread. 3+ inch and hour rates with lightning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Its a very temperamental area when it comes to snow. Draw a line from Ann Arbor to Port Huron points Northward thats where you have a chance for the "big one" Ohio still can get a few isolated ones... 12" in '05 @ TOL, and a ton of 12"+ for Christmas '04 and March '08. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 To clarify I was talking about the entire SE Michigan region. You can find a foot storm pretty much every winter. I just went to the DTX site and perused the archives just quickly trying to find high amounts. Not going through every event this is what I've found for maxes just casually looking. 10/11 - 14" Port Huron 09/10 - 12.4" Saginaw 08/09 - 12.9" Montrose 07/08 - There was the widespread 15"+ storm from Oakland Co north in Feb 06/07 - For some reason no maps appear for this season. 05/06 - 12" Lapeer 04/05 - 15.5" Port Hope 03/04 - 12" St. Clair 02/03 - 17" Port Huron 01/02 - 12" Midland 00/01 - The Dec 11 blizzard was widespread foot and then of course the 99 New year's blizzard So of the last 13 seasons, at least 5 had 15+ amounts somewhere. Even if you narrowed it to just Washtenaw, Wayne, Oakland, Macomb I bet you could find a 10"+ amount 90% of winters. My view of SEMI is too localized lol. Include places with the aid of lake effect and you'll definitely see higher totals. Your point is made, though. But you do have to remember that the past decade has kinda been ridiculously kind to SEMI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Wait a second..I would say all areas are tempermental in regards to snow belting..For instance it could go the other way for Cities like Chicago in which their synaptic systems will merge with the lake to yield higher totals than the western suburbs. Its the same theory with severe we had at the start of the severe season..that is "screw zones" and do they exist. Its important to understand how rare 15+ inch synaptic systems are for any non lake or ocean areas. @DMC.. That New Years storms was so amazing! time to put that write up in the GL snow events thread. 3+ inch and hour rates with lightning. Oh I understand how difficult it is to get a 15"+ snowfall in this area I live in a prime spot and Ive only seen 2 in my life around here. My whole thing is how year after year. How the City of Detroit gets burned on every snow event. How could that happen every single year. You would think once in a blue moon they would be the bullseye and its never the case south of 59 east 275 north of 94. There always the "screw zone". Its actually quite comical. Im going to have to do a write up on that historic new years eve night but right now im enjoying my Pumpkin ale from Blue Moon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Timeless tails of the ole dry slotting screwing the dirty mitten.. We had roughly 8 synaptic systems last year I can only remember the area sniff a dry slot twice! Go back a year to 2009/2010 I dont think we even had one dry slot event..go back to 08-09 we had 2 go back and back...20% of our snowstorms get a dryslot...not a bad number! To be fair we will say 15-20% of all SEMI snowstorms get shunted due to dryslots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 My view of SEMI is too localized lol. Include places with the aid of lake effect and you'll definitely see higher totals. Your point is made, though. But you do have to remember that the past decade has kinda been ridiculously kind to SEMI. 2002/03 Port Huron 17" was LES and it was verrrrry isolated, I know because the weather freak that I am actually drove there. You didnt see snow until about 6-7 miles West of Port Huron and you had to be close to the Lake to see that big amount. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Timeless tails of the ole dry slotting screwing the dirty mitten.. We had roughly 8 synaptic systems last year I can only remember the area sniff a dry slot twice! Go back a year to 2009/2010 I dont think we even had one dry slot event..go back to 08-09 we had 2 go back and back...20% of our snowstorms get a dryslot...not a bad number! To be fair we will say 15-20% of all SEMI snowstorms get shunted due to dryslots. I love your sig PRICELESS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 2002/03 Port Huron 17" was LES and it was verrrrry isolated, I know because the weather freak that I am actually drove there. You didnt see snow until about 6-7 miles West of Port Huron and you had to be close to the Lake to see that big amount. That's the thing with SE Michigan versus the east coast. Looking at all types of snow, there's always a jackpot location somewhere each season that one can easily go visit to get their 12"+ snow fix. While the EC might get relatively frequent 15 inch events that cover dozens of counties, in SE Michigan it's the luck of whether you were in an isolated banding situation or not. Think of how many storms there are where White Lake can have 13", but 7" in Farmington Hills and 5" in Romulus. The reverse is true too, I think January 31, 2002 there was a narrow band along I-94 that gave Detroit about a foot, but Pontiac was shafted. The widespread 12" storms for SE Michigan are rare, and a widespread 15"+ storm that covers numerous counties is virtually unheard of, but the isolated town to get these amounts isn't. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Best case storm for the area would be almost a clone of what we have now just further East along with a GHD Hybrid system. 1974 was a sweet system that tossed the Atlantic feed our way. To be optimistic if there is a year for such a system it would be this one given the prospects of a mod La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Damn near the entire SeMi crew tossed their theories and gripes in except for Kab & Snowfreak. To add..LES is a factor in and around the area..as early Jan 2011 proved so well! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trent Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Damn near the entire SeMi crew tossed their theories and gripes in except for Kab......... I lived in SE Mich for 4 years. I found the winter season to be much more stressful to follow there than here in Northeast Ohio. At least if a low pressure misses Cleveland to the east, it sets up the perfect wind trajectory for lake effect. In SE Mich you pretty much had to hope for the best with each system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Damn near the entire SeMi crew tossed their theories and gripes in except for Kab & Snowfreak. To add..LES is a factor in and around the area..as early Jan 2011 proved so well! refresh my memory what happened in early Jan 11 with LES? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Damn near the entire SeMi crew tossed their theories and gripes in except for Kab & Snowfreak. To add..LES is a factor in and around the area..as early Jan 2011 proved so well! Born and raised in SEMI (Genesee Cnty), now reside in SCMI (Marshall), and it's true about the rarity of a widespread 12"+ event. I'd call the frequencey about every 20-30 yrs. (not impressive). Unlike Chicago (help from Lk MI), and Pt. Huron (help from Lk Huron), inland areas (especially Detroit proper) are doing good to break the double digit barrier with any given system. Heck, right here in Marshall I'm still waiting for one event at 12+ despite all the great winters lately. Seems like 15" totals have surrounded me N,S,E,& W since '07/08, but missed mby. Here's to this year being the year for all of us in S. MI to "cash in on the big one". Seeing these Bombs in the OH valley is giving me a good feeling in my gut about the potential.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 I am going with the 1917-18 analog. Triple Phaser in mid-January. Will peak over Lake Erie at 958mb and drop 1-3 feet from gulf coast to canada. Wasn't familiar with that system, but I 2nd the motion! Between this reference, the "Great White Hurricane of Nov 1913", and the "Cleveland super-bomb" of 26Jan78, I can only say: "Let's Do This!!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 SEMi is in a big snow hole compared to the rest of the Great Lakes. I bet the averages would back this up too. Edit: Here it is. The SEMi snow hole shows up nicely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 SEMi is in a big snow hole compared to the rest of the Great Lakes. I bet the averages would back this up too. Edit: Here it is. The SEMi snow hole shows up nicely. Thats not a "hole". Its a gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 SEMi is in a big snow hole compared to the rest of the Great Lakes. I bet the averages would back this up too. Edit: Here it is. The SEMi snow hole shows up nicely. Not really earth shattering. There are LES belts to the SE and NW. Although I suspect that 40" line is too far north in MI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 19, 2011 Share Posted October 19, 2011 Not really earth shattering. There are LES belts to the SE and NW. Although I suspect that 40" line is too far north in MI. Toledo averages 37", so that looks a bit suspicious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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