Harry Posted October 18, 2011 Author Share Posted October 18, 2011 Awesome. But seriously. The latest MJO wave has done some decent damage to the surface SSTs in the western enso regions. Per a few sites we have neutral conditions again. STILL though we do have some decent - departures just below the surface. Regardless the chances of this ever peaking stronger then say -1.2 ( TM ) are pretty slim and getting slimmer by the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 But seriously. The latest MJO wave has done some decent damage to the surface SSTs in the western enso regions. Per a few sites we have neutral conditions again. STILL though we do have some decent - departures just below the surface. Regardless the chances of this ever peaking stronger then say -1.2 ( TM ) are pretty slim and getting slimmer by the day. Even if it IS a strong Nina (which it very likely WONT be), thats nowhere near the disaster that would be had it been a strong Nino (and even that was disproved in 2009-10). Feeling very very good about another great winter here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Having serious doubts about this Winter. Its like stocks.. When everyone is Selling you buy. Seems to be most are banking on decent la Nina pattern. But like stated before watch out for an SE ridge on steroids. Just not sure about this being a wicked Winter. I guess I'll wait and see. Like snow freak said.. Nothing is worse than a niño like 2009-2010. Although that Febuary wasn't all that bad. It depends if your a snow total freak or storm intensity guy. Personally I would rather have 2 epic Blizzards than being nickeled and dined and staring at snow pack for 50 days. Give me a 20 inch thundersnow blizzard and I'll be happy for a month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Having serious doubts about this Winter. Its like stocks.. When everyone is Selling you buy. Seems to be most are banking on decent la Nina pattern. But like stated before watch out for an SE ridge on steroids. Just not sure about this being a wicked Winter. I guess I'll wait and see. Like snow freak said.. Nothing is worse than a niño like 2009-2010. Although that Febuary wasn't all that bad. It depends if your a snow total freak or storm intensity guy. Personally I would rather have 2 epic Blizzards than being nickeled and dined and staring at snow pack for 50 days. Give me a 20 inch thundersnow blizzard and I'll be happy for a month. Same here, for me it's all about the big storms. Clippers are nice, but if we get most of our snow this year from clippers and not big Panhandle Hookers or Colorado Lows, I will be a bit disappointed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 anyone hoping for a 20" blizzard outside a prime lake belt better prepare for a let down. Climo folks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 anyone hoping for a 20" blizzard outside a prime lake belt better prepare for a let down. Climo folks. Most definitely. We totaled 49.0" here without the aid of a pure 6"+ snowfall last winter. I enjoyed every bit of it. Though I may be in the minority... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 anyone hoping for a 20" blizzard outside a prime lake belt better prepare for a let down. Climo folks. I would take Clippers all winter long here giving me 2-6 inches each time building me a nice snow pack for December and January. The beauty of Clippers is the usually high ratios and most of the time you are not biting your nails about a changeover!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 I would take Clippers all winter long here giving me 2-6 inches each time building me a nice snow pack for December and January. The beauty of Clippers is the usually high ratios and most of the time you are not biting your nails about a changeover!!!!!!!!!!!! However, they are rarely memorable except for the super clippers (like January 2005 and perhaps the Good Friday storm of 2008). For my money it is important to have one or two memorable storms per year. Last year it was the Groundhog Day Blizzard. Two years ago it was a near miss in December and a nice long duration snowfall on February 9th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Most definitely. We totaled 49.0" here without the aid of a pure 6"+ snowfall last winter. I enjoyed every bit of it. Though I may be in the minority... i knew you guys never nailed a big one, but didn't know you made out that well on the season, nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 However, they are rarely memorable except for the super clippers (like January 2005 and perhaps the Good Friday storm of 2008). For my money it is important to have one or two memorable storms per year. Last year it was the Groundhog Day Blizzard. Two years ago it was a near miss in December and a nice long duration snowfall on February 9th. Yep, and you set yourself up for bigger disappointment with the block busters. I grew up on the eastcoast near Philly and there was nothing like the "Big One". BUT, I cannot tell you how many times I was HUGELY disappointed b/c the big storm didn't pan out or we had an unexpected changeover. Moving out here gave me a fresh new hope for "other" snow that exists. Clippers are much more fruitful here than on the eastcoast and there are always those nice little snow bands that set up from the lakes even down here in Columbus. Agree to disagree I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 i knew you guys never nailed a big one, but didn't know you made out that well on the season, nice. Blocking was good for us, especially in December (the MSP-cyclone's BY-LAF-CVG pipeline was alive and well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Blocking was good for us, especially in December (the MSP-cyclone's BY-LAF-CVG pipeline was alive and well). yeah i remember cyclone getting jackpotted by a couple nice clippers there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Yep, and you set yourself up for bigger disappointment with the block busters. I grew up on the eastcoast near Philly and there was nothing like the "Big One". BUT, I cannot tell you how many times I was HUGELY disappointed b/c the big storm didn't pan out or we had an unexpected changeover. Moving out here gave me a fresh new hope for "other" snow that exists. Clippers are much more fruitful here than on the eastcoast and there are always those nice little snow bands that set up from the lakes even down here in Columbus. Agree to disagree I guess. That's true, which is why the Great Lakes tend to average more snow overall than the big coastal cities along the Northeast coast. I think there comes a point where we take the nickel and dime events for granted, and I'm probably at that point. Lately, it seems like the clipper zone has shifted south, so now I'm frequently northeast of the ideal zone (at least I was for many of the clippers last year). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Having serious doubts about this Winter. Its like stocks.. When everyone is Selling you buy. Seems to be most are banking on decent la Nina pattern. But like stated before watch out for an SE ridge on steroids. Just not sure about this being a wicked Winter. I guess I'll wait and see. Like snow freak said.. Nothing is worse than a niño like 2009-2010. Although that Febuary wasn't all that bad. It depends if your a snow total freak or storm intensity guy. Personally I would rather have 2 epic Blizzards than being nickeled and dined and staring at snow pack for 50 days. Give me a 20 inch thundersnow blizzard and I'll be happy for a month. Not for here it wasn't. White Christmas. Record one day snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Having serious doubts about this Winter. Its like stocks.. When everyone is Selling you buy. Seems to be most are banking on decent la Nina pattern. But like stated before watch out for an SE ridge on steroids. Just not sure about this being a wicked Winter. I guess I'll wait and see. Like snow freak said.. Nothing is worse than a niño like 2009-2010. Although that Febuary wasn't all that bad. It depends if your a snow total freak or storm intensity guy. Personally I would rather have 2 epic Blizzards than being nickeled and dined and staring at snow pack for 50 days. Give me a 20 inch thundersnow blizzard and I'll be happy for a month. Actually when I was bringing up 2009-10, it was to show that it actually was about as good of a winter as you can get here with a strong El Nino. It really did not fit the bill of your typical strong Nino. If it is indeed a milder winter with an active SE ridge, then I see that as increased potential for a major storm or two (versus a winter that is sustained in cold and snow and snowcover, but without a massive storm). Basically, i do not at ALL see this as being a sucky winter. I give it about a 70% of seeing a winter with lots of snowiness (like folks like myself, Bowme, Chicagowx like), and should that fail, I can see it being the winter where we at least get a few massive snowstorms (along with mild spells and rain). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 That's true, which is why the Great Lakes tend to average more snow overall than the big coastal cities along the Northeast coast. I think there comes a point where we take the nickel and dime events for granted, and I'm probably at that point. Lately, it seems like the clipper zone has shifted south, so now I'm frequently northeast of the ideal zone (at least I was for many of the clippers last year). Thats why I love our climate. We dont make or break winter based on big storms like the coastal northeast. We are lucky enough to live in a climate where snow flies frequently, and we occasionally luck into the big storm as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 One of the Midwest Highlights this year is going to be mid-December. There seems to be a pretty sound signal that when the AAM spikes late Nov into early December and then begins to drop again mid-late Dec, that helps to produce a situation much like we have now. Could bring a good snow event for much of the Midwest / Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 One of the Midwest Highlights this year is going to be mid-December. There seems to be a pretty sound signal that when the AAM spikes late Nov into early December and then begins to drop again mid-late Dec, that helps to produce a situation much like we have now. Could bring a good snow event for much of the Midwest / Chicago. Very cool, thanks for the info. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HM Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Very cool, thanks for the info. Hey no problem; I'm not strictly an East Coast whore. You can take that relationship throughout the whole cold season, too, if the players are strong enough. +AAM periods with -dAAM/dt and an NAO phase change will bring the biggest Chicago snow events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Thats why I love our climate. We dont make or break winter based on big storms like the coastal northeast. We are lucky enough to live in a climate where snow flies frequently, and we occasionally luck into the big storm as well. Exactly!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
an uncanny otter Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 One of the Midwest Highlights this year is going to be mid-December. There seems to be a pretty sound signal that when the AAM spikes late Nov into early December and then begins to drop again mid-late Dec, that helps to produce a situation much like we have now. Could bring a good snow event for much of the Midwest / Chicago. I really hope so. Having a White Christmas or not is a really important factor in how I rate winters for this area. Last year we managed to eek out a White Christmas, but only barely - had just over an inch on the ground with the grass starting to poke out.It's a proven fact that the best Christmases occur in the snowiest Decembers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Hey no problem; I'm not strictly an East Coast whore. You can take that relationship throughout the whole cold season, too, if the players are strong enough. +AAM periods with -dAAM/dt and an NAO phase change will bring the biggest Chicago snow events. Ha, we appreciate you dropping by and giving us your thoughts. Definitely will be looking for the periods you describe above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 +AAM periods with -dAAM/dt and an NAO phase change will bring the biggest Chicago snow events. thanks for the thoughts, had to go and look up what AAM meant and my met professor and me were just talking about it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 at people expecting a blizzard > 15". I think Detroit might have 3 that significant in about 130 years of data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Hey no problem; I'm not strictly an East Coast whore. You can take that relationship throughout the whole cold season, too, if the players are strong enough. +AAM periods with -dAAM/dt and an NAO phase change will bring the biggest Chicago snow events. Seems logical enough. A neutral PNA phase would be best preferred for storminess across the Great Lakes region with a slight blocking confg. (East Based mostly). It seems more likely that we will have a strong temperature gradient this Winter than the past Winter and could this coupled with the Strong PJ jet and slightly active STJ at times allow for a strong Gulf Storm or Two to develop? This current upcoming storm is probably one of the most telling based on typical Ninas and given the amount of moisture it has and the combination of 3 pieces of energy with a slightly negatively tilted trough makes this storm very epic hah. BTW whats your opinion in the Nina strength and the current MJO given the fact its finally favorable once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BowMeHunter Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 John Dee's winter outlook. http://www.johndee.com/seasonalfcst/seasonalforecast.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 John Dee's winter outlook. http://www.johndee.c...nalforecast.htm The Southeast Midwest: Overall, I think these areas are in for an average to colder than average winter. Snowfall looks to also be average to above average, which means some snow storms and periods of good snow play, but also includes thaws and periods where there just is not enough snow on the ground to play in- even in the dead of winter. As a rule of thumb, I think the further south you go, the more prone you will be to see above precip, but also average temps occur. My worry is that folks in the southern ½ of WI and portions of northern IL that have seen well above average snowfall the past few years will think of those as being average. So if average conditions occur this season, they will be thought of as being below average. Keep in mind that average snowfall for many areas of southern WI and northern IL is 40-50", not 60-80". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 John Dee's winter outlook. http://www.johndee.c...nalforecast.htm The part about no correlation between winter wx and La Nina in eastern Canada is not true. Unless, he's talking about Quebec and Atlantic Canada and lumping mby into them. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Basically, he's just going more like last year than most forecasts, except he keeps the above average snowfall further north than it was last year. Interesting that he says, the further south in the SE Midwest you go, the wetter it will be, yet seems to be going with average or below average snowfall in these regions. Unless he expects well above normal temps, those statements don't seem to jive with each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 If we get a +NAO and a persistent SE ridge, I think 1949-50 might be a good analog for this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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