Harry Posted October 16, 2011 Author Share Posted October 16, 2011 Ok, here's what it was forecasting in October for last winter: Look familar? I'm not sure what goes into this model but apparently it didn't account for the blocking last winter. Same thing winter before as well. Would be interesting to know what goes into it for the model to come up with the calls that it does? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Same thing winter before as well. Would be interesting to know what goes into it for the model to come up with the calls that it does? I'm guessing it's heavily SST based. Looks mod-strong Nina climo-ish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 What does this imply? I am always a bit concerned when all the calls so early peg this area as a can't miss. NOw I bought a crap load of salt and if I end up sitting on it I am going to be pissed. I fell for the hype and now watch it snow 24 inches or like 02/03 something like that. So if the cold anomalies retreat NW what is the fallout for the GL area? Just an observation that the previous runs moved the cold anomalies progressively S and E while this one moved them back to the northwest. I don't put a whole lot of stock in it. it missed the blocking last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Just an observation that the previous runs moved the cold anomalies progressively S and E while this one moved them back to the northwest. I don't put a whole lot of stock in it. it missed the blocking last year. Man if there was ever a winter outlook that looks as sexy as this years it is this, but man this also can be a heartbreaker to. Of course I drank the kool-aid now and bought enough salt to salt Chicago so yes, I will be having ahuge salt clearence sale if this winter busts...lol. I'm always nervous when Patelok issues a seasonal forcast, had he said mild in the GLs than batton down the hatches, but the fact he even spit out a number of 52 inches has me worried about bust central. Oh well, at least Michsnowfreak will always post awesome pics of whatever winter throws at us, the dude can take some shots...amazing eye for the camera. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Obvious troll is obvious. Man if there was ever a winter outlook that looks as sexy as this years it is this, but man this also can be a heartbreaker to. Of course I drank the kool-aid now and bought enough salt to salt Chicago so yes, I will be having ahuge salt clearence sale if this winter busts...lol. I'm always nervous when Patelok issues a seasonal forcast, had he said mild in the GLs than batton down the hatches, but the fact he even spit out a number of 52 inches has me worried about bust central. Oh well, at least Michsnowfreak will always post awesome pics of whatever winter throws at us, the dude can take some shots...amazing eye for the camera. Give your salt away and invest in shorts... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmc76 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 My Call for Michigan... it really means nothing but this is the way I see it. So what heck let me do a meaningless prediction like we dont have enough of those SEMI: Cold and below average precip with basically average to slightly above Snowfall. South 40-45" Central 45-60" North 45-60". I expect 2 decent events of 6"+ for Detroit. NOTHING HISTORIC. Cold winters mean lighter Snows. I see a lot of clippers and light LES events from Lk Michigan that nickle and dimes us with snow. SWMI: Cold and plenty of Snow especially in the Snow belt. Lots of LES. Average Snowfall to just above around the 69/127 Corridor From Battle Creek to Mt Pleasant. Decent Snows along the 131 corridor from Sturgis through Grand Rapids. Heaviest Snows will be in Allegan, Cass, Berrien and Van Buren counties . East 45-60" Central 55-80" West 70-110" NOMI: Colder but very Snow early in the season. I expect a lot of storms in Late November through the Middle December before the real cold sets in and LES starts to Hammer the favorable areas of Northern Lower. Not like the last couple years of little snow. I see Northern seeing more of traditional winter. East 60-75" Central 75-100" West 65-90" UPMI: Cold and Snowless away from the Snowbelts. I see an active November but overall cold sets in and tons LES. Kind of bore from Mackinaw to Escanaba. South 45-55" Western 75-120" Keewenaw 125-200" Marquette 80-110" Munising 110-135" Eastern 75-95" Biggest Snows: Detroit 8.0" Pontiac 9.0" Flint 9.5" Saginaw 8.5" Lansing 8.0" Grand Rapids 10.5" Kalamazoo 12.0" Benton Harbor 16.0" Holland 10.0" Battle Creek 8.5" Gaylord 12.0" Traverse City 11.0" Alpena 8.0" Petoskey 15.0" Marquette 20.0" Houghton 25.0" Sault St Marie 12.0" Escanaba 7.0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Obvious troll is obvious. There's two suspects in this thread with ill intentions. Same old story, different year I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Obvious troll is obvious. Give your salt away and invest in shorts... LOL....I do hope it is a good winter for everyone, I have to admit many of you guys were amazing with the blizzard and hinting at it a week before the event, that was cool. I do hope it's fun, I love learning all the ins and outs of waht it takes to make the perfect winter event. Next week first taste of winter type cold.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I like the storm track depicted by the GFS/ECWMF over the next 1-2 weeks. Most if not all the storms are mostly lake cutters providing decent precipitation and perhaps even some flurry activity. Based on my calculations there's the possibly of a nice cool down ending October but a nice warm-up starting November so the cool down shouldn't last too long but should be a nice preview of Winter. The AO/NAO may go slightly negative near the end of the month with a slightly negative PNA which may allow for some cold air to spill in across the region but before that could occur a storm is likely before it and with a strong temperature gradient possible it may rival this upcoming storm. Thats just my two cents from what I've seen. I don't think the NAO/AO will be as negative as the past two Winters with a negative -PNA/-PDO this should allow for an epic Winter season across the region. I'm expecting a Moderate Nina for the Winter and no where near wat the CFS is showing. Its showin a record breaking Nina peaking at -3, like wtf? My Final Winter outlook should be out around Mid-November. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 2nd outlook from snowday.us... http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 2nd outlook from snowday.us... http://snowday.community.officelive.com/default.aspx I continue to think that the toughest area to call is the southeast but I don't think I'd have the guts to call for "much" below average there. It looks like they are hedging toward a pronounced -NAO/-AO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 2nd outlook from snowday.us... http://snowday.commu...om/default.aspx I wonder how many good lookin' panhandle hooker's we'll see this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I wonder how many good lookin' panhandle hooker's we'll see this year. I'm guessing those "SW Lows" they indicate on that map is their terminology for Panhandle Hookers? If so, I'll take a track a shade to the south of what they're currently showing. Some nice storms across C and S Illinois would be nice, so we don't have to deal with the rain/snow line that much (would be nice for Chicago as well). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 2nd outlook from snowday.us... http://snowday.commu...om/default.aspx Holy s*** at that CFS graph Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I continue to think that the toughest area to call is the southeast but I don't think I'd have the guts to call for "much" below average there. It looks like they are hedging toward a pronounced -NAO/-AO. -NAO more so than -AO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Thought this was kind of interesting, CFS Nino 3.4 SST verification at 1, 3, and 6 month leads. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Thought this was kind of interesting, CFS Nino 3.4 SST verification at 1, 3, and 6 month leads. Seems as though it likes extremes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 I like the storm track depicted by the GFS/ECWMF over the next 1-2 weeks. Most if not all the storms are mostly lake cutters providing decent precipitation and perhaps even some flurry activity. Based on my calculations there's the possibly of a nice cool down ending October but a nice warm-up starting November so the cool down shouldn't last too long but should be a nice preview of Winter. The AO/NAO may go slightly negative near the end of the month with a slightly negative PNA which may allow for some cold air to spill in across the region but before that could occur a storm is likely before it and with a strong temperature gradient possible it may rival this upcoming storm. Thats just my two cents from what I've seen. I don't think the NAO/AO will be as negative as the past two Winters with a negative -PNA/-PDO this should allow for an epic Winter season across the region. I'm expecting a Moderate Nina for the Winter and no where near wat the CFS is showing. Its showin a record breaking Nina peaking at -3, like wtf? My Final Winter outlook should be out around Mid-November. I think that sounds like the most likely scenario at this point given the trends and the rarity of a strong La Nina. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pondo1000 Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Anyone look at previous years where October featured at least one "OCTOBOMB" that is currently being forecasted around these parts over the next few days? Ok, maybe it is not an OCTOBOMB but it has potential to be a very strong system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 Anyone look at previous years where October featured at least one "OCTOBOMB" that is currently being forecasted around these parts over the next few days? Ok, maybe it is not an OCTOBOMB but it has potential to be a very strong system. Heh, I thought about that too. Only thing I could think of was to look at the CIPS analog site for similar storms (and the months and years). Probably not what you intended...but here's the link (at 60 hours) for upcoming current storm. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/stats.php?reg=MV&model=GFS212&fhr=F060&flg= Link to the site, a good one to bookmark: http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/COLD/analog.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 CPC outlook apparently comes out on Thursday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baroclinic_instability Posted October 17, 2011 Share Posted October 17, 2011 2nd outlook from snowday.us... http://snowday.commu...om/default.aspx That CO Low track is not even real. You NEVER get a true Colorado Low that tracks straight eastward like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 That CO Low track is not even real. You NEVER get a true Colorado Low that tracks straight eastward like that. this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 quick stat Gino posted on his fb that I found very interesting.. "If these models are right, it would be the strongest La Nina since 1950! Interestingly, of the only 2 other winters that had Nino3.4 values of -2.0 or lower going back to 1950, one was slightly warmer than average and much snowier than average in Chicago (1973-74) and the other was WAY below normal snowfall and MUCH warmer than average (1955-56)!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 quick stat Gino posted on his fb that I found very interesting.. "If these models are right, it would be the strongest La Nina since 1950! Interestingly, of the only 2 other winters that had Nino3.4 values of -2.0 or lower going back to 1950, one was slightly warmer than average and much snowier than average in Chicago (1973-74) and the other was WAY below normal snowfall and MUCH warmer than average (1955-56)!" Yeah but those models, assuming he's talking about the CFS ensemble suite, didn't fare so well in calling for an "off the chart" strong Nina last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OHSnow Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 With a strong Nina, one would expect a much milder winter with above normal temperatures for much of the east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 If we see a moderate to strong La Nina, this little bit of potential research could come into play: http://www.theweatherprediction.com/weatherpapers/059/index.html Apparently, moderate to strong La Ninas show a correlation with moisture laden or more frequent Panhandle Hooks, which would tend to mean more snow, at least for someone. Question is, if this happens, which areas will cash in the most from these systems? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 With a strong Nina, one would expect a much milder winter with above normal temperatures for much of the east. Not all strong Ninas are equal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 18, 2011 Share Posted October 18, 2011 Not all strong Ninas are equal. Exactly, and looking at what ChicagoWx posted on the page before makes me really want to believe the CFS is grossly overdoing the Nina. I dont think its time to worry yet. Actually Im still pretty excited! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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