River Card Posted October 11, 2011 Share Posted October 11, 2011 Does he post it anywhere else besides FB? No, but he does do a seasonal special for the seasons that's a 1/2 hour in length and goes into great detail. He is Dave Murray of Fox2 St. Louis and his long range stuff is pretty damn accurate. He is into JB a lot but he is very good and a pro. Thinks winter will be fierce the first half but also thinks the second half has high bust potential should the SE ridge become a player. I will post the link for his winter cast in Nov. He is worht following. Thinks we could see a lot of snow in places like STL which as many know can be a heartbreaker of a locale with near misses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 I'll take a Moderate Nina, but Strong would be going a bit too far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 This is a bit of a surprise, might be some revisions to forecasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 This is a bit of a surprise, might be some revisions to forecasts. Is it? I think the CFS has consistently been an outlier wrt the magnitude of the Nina. I think I made a few posts about how robust a Nina the CFS was depicting back in Sept. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Is it? I think the CFS has consistently been an outlier wrt the magnitude of the Nina. I think I made a few posts about how robust a Nina the CFS was depicting back in Sept. Yeah, wasn't the mean well under -2 at one point? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Is it? I think the CFS has consistently been an outlier wrt the magnitude of the Nina. I think I made a few posts about how robust a Nina the CFS was depicting back in Sept. I don't believe they were this robust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Is it? I think the CFS has consistently been an outlier wrt the magnitude of the Nina. I think I made a few posts about how robust a Nina the CFS was depicting back in Sept. You are correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Yeah, wasn't the mean well under -2 at one point? I don't recall but it was definitely one of the only pieces of lr guidance going with a strong Nina. IIRC the mean of the other models barely had an ONI <-0.50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 You are correct. Any idea when the CPC is coming out with their winter outlook? I have a sneaking suspicion it'll be in line with the other forecasts we've seen but ya never know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 You are correct. Hmm I guess I was wrong, I didn't think it was shown this low beforehand. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 13, 2011 Share Posted October 13, 2011 Any idea when the CPC is coming out with their winter outlook? I have a sneaking suspicion it'll be in line with the other forecasts we've seen but ya never know. No idea. Here's the Nino 3.4 maps for September and October BTW. The October update has gone stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 No idea. Here's the Nino 3.4 maps for September and October BTW. The October update has gone stronger. at the October one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 If the CPC has gone stronger could that possibly change the winter outlook some? Aren't most forecasts right now basing this as a weak to moderate event? The graph that was just posted looks awfully strong to me. I would think that we don't want this to get to strong. I bought a ton of salt for this winter for plowing so I want it to snow!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 No idea. Here's the Nino 3.4 maps for September and October BTW. The October update has gone stronger. Well, if anything the Sept chart was forecasting a big drop from Aug to Sept. But in reality it was half of what it was forecasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Oct JAMSTEC is out: http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frsgc/research/d1/iod/sintex_f1_forecast.html.en Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Oct JAMSTEC is out: http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en Yikes. Cold anomalies retreat NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Oct JAMSTEC is out: http://www.jamstec.g...orecast.html.en Basically my thinking for this winter after looking over some pertinent data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 14, 2011 Share Posted October 14, 2011 Time's a tickin'... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I dont know how much weight should be given to these long range models. IDK much about them but come one, it goes against everything predicted for the same period thus far. Its like the GFS at 384 hrs showing a blizzard!? If your a weenie you take it for all its worth and run with it, otherwise you brush it off and keep thinking about the . But as I stated IDK anything about this model and if its reliable and Im being a snow weenie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tropical Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 I dont know how much weight should be given to these long range models. IDK much about them but come one, it goes against everything predicted for the same period thus far. Its like the GFS at 384 hrs showing a blizzard!? If your a weenie you take it for all its worth and run with it, otherwise you brush it off and keep thinking about the . But as I stated IDK anything about this model and if its reliable and Im being a snow weenie Seems like people always take these models and forecasts as truth unless it doesn't show what they personally want. Then they compare it to the 384 hr GFS ... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Yikes. Cold anomalies retreat NW. What does this imply? I am always a bit concerned when all the calls so early peg this area as a can't miss. NOw I bought a crap load of salt and if I end up sitting on it I am going to be pissed. I fell for the hype and now watch it snow 24 inches or like 02/03 something like that. So if the cold anomalies retreat NW what is the fallout for the GL area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Seems like people always take these models and forecasts as truth unless it doesn't show what they personally want. Then they compare it to the 384 hr GFS ... Sounds kind of like you taking this JAMSTEC and Brett Anderson's forecast seriously, while ignoring the rest because it doesn't fit your warminista agenda, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Here's what the JAMSTEC predicted back in April for this summer: Actual result: It was pretty darn good with the placement of the anomalies. Granted we are talking about one season and I'm not sure how well it has done over a longer period of time. Though it is showing above average temperatures this winter, it's also showing wetter than normal conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Ok, here's what it was forecasting in October for last winter: Look familar? I'm not sure what goes into this model but apparently it didn't account for the blocking last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 Yeah something went wrong last year or something changed. Oct 2009 DJF (temps) looks pretty close to what happened Dec-Feb 2009-2010. It's pretty hit or miss no matter what long range model is used. I tend to trust it more than the CFS though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 15, 2011 Share Posted October 15, 2011 What does this imply? I am always a bit concerned when all the calls so early peg this area as a can't miss. NOw I bought a crap load of salt and if I end up sitting on it I am going to be pissed. I fell for the hype and now watch it snow 24 inches or like 02/03 something like that. So if the cold anomalies retreat NW what is the fallout for the GL area? Endless 50's and sunshine. Sell all of your salt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Basically my thinking for this winter after looking over some pertinent data. Is it pertinent enough to share? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Endless 50's and sunshine. Sell all of your salt. I'd put the snowblower up on craigslist as well.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 16, 2011 Share Posted October 16, 2011 Endless 50's and sunshine. Sell all of your salt. only positive of that is playing 18....maybe lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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