Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[River Card]

The last thing anyone would want is 1936 as an analog. The hot summer of '36 would mean the following winter is 1936-37, which is the all-time LOW benchmark for snow for many major cities from the midwest to northeast. It was a notoriously snowless winter, not only for major cities (Detroits all time low of 12.9" is from this winter), but even ski-resorts had barren hills much of winter (i remember reading this). The cold you refer to is the 1935-36 winter.

Anyway, there is very little to worry about this. First of all, most summer of the 1930s were hot, in fact many places were hotter overall in numerous other years than 1936 (its just that 1936 has THE granddaddy of all heatwaves, but really most years in the 1930s had stifling summers). Also, there was a massive drought going on (dust bowl) at the time. Really, there is nothing feasible (luckily) to make this an analog.

What was so amazing about that year was the heat that summer and the wicked cold that winter in an otherwise decade known for fairly mild winters. Yeah dry and cold is awful for the vegetation. And as much as I love warm weather I would rather have it active in winter than just plain cold and dry....that sucks.

Did the 1950's feature as many la ninas as the early part of the 00's? And if there is a link to where you can see past enso states I would appreciate that.

[River Card]

Thanks. What about winter do you see cold/snowy in MW/GL?

Toronto, I'm not the man to really answer that question but you gotta think the way the past several winters have been that there is a greater likely hood of a cold winter for sure but snow wise it could be closer to normal than the past few, generally second year nina events in the weak stage tned to be less "hyper' active, but we shall see. I think this winter will hedge more on the PNA index since I have heard from some met's on FB that this winter may not see the strong blocking of the past winters...again there opinions not mine. I think the big question is where do we go from here...weak or moderate, moderate could be a game changer in that it might be stormier or perhpas it could overwhelm the pattern and usher in milder periods. This is fun stuff let's just see where mother nature places her bet's at.

[Stebo]

Thanks. What about winter do you see cold/snowy in MW/GL?

Snowy possibly the cold part is more in question.

[michsnowfreak]

What was so amazing about that year was the heat that summer and the wicked cold that winter in an otherwise decade known for fairly mild winters. Yeah dry and cold is awful for the vegetation. And as much as I love warm weather I would rather have it active in winter than just plain cold and dry....that sucks.

Did the 1950's feature as many la ninas as the early part of the 00's? And if there is a link to where you can see past enso states I would appreciate that.

Harry might actually be the one to answer that about enso.

Talking sensible weather for our region (and Im giving a general summary based on what happened in Detroit)- As for the 1930s, we had the very cold winter of 1935-36 and a record cold Feb 1934, so not that there weren't cold spells in the 1930s, but by far heat dominated that decade, as well as some mild winters, 1931-32 being notorious for warmth and 1936-37 for lack of snow.

The 1950s were sort of like the 1930s in that hot summers dominated, as did mild winters, even moreso than the 1930s in that the only real cold winter in the 1950s was 1958-59. The 1950s were the only decade from 1870s to present where 9 out of 10 winters had an above normal temp departure. Despite the more consistent mildness in 1950s winters, it snowed more than the 1930s.

Now, in between these decades, the 1940s were a big old wtf. The summers were hot, but not as extreme as the 1930s/1950s...and though there was the infamous warm winter of 1948-49, the winters were much colder than the 1930s/1950s (5 of the winters were colder than normal)...YET...snowfall set a benchmark for futility this decade.

So...to rank winters of this quirky period.

SNOWIEST TO LEAST SNOWY

1950s

1930s

1940s

COLDEST TO WARMEST

1940s

1930s

1950s

Go figure, this is why I love climate data so much lol

[River Card]

Harry might actually be the one to answer that about enso.

Talking sensible weather for our region (and Im giving a general summary based on what happened in Detroit)- As for the 1930s, we had the very cold winter of 1935-36 and a record cold Feb 1934, so not that there weren't cold spells in the 1930s, but by far heat dominated that decade, as well as some mild winters, 1931-32 being notorious for warmth and 1936-37 for lack of snow.

The 1950s were sort of like the 1930s in that hot summers dominated, as did mild winters, even moreso than the 1930s in that the only real cold winter in the 1950s was 1958-59. The 1950s were the only decade from 1870s to present where 9 out of 10 winters had an above normal temp departure. Despite the more consistent mildness in 1950s winters, it snowed more than the 1930s.

Now, in between these decades, the 1940s were a big old wtf. The summers were hot, but not as extreme as the 1930s/1950s...and though there was the infamous warm winter of 1948-49, the winters were much colder than the 1930s/1950s (5 of the winters were colder than normal)...YET...snowfall set a benchmark for futility this decade.

So...to rank winters of this quirky period.

SNOWIEST TO LEAST SNOWY

1950s

1930s

1940s

COLDEST TO WARMEST

1940s

1930s

1950s

Go figure, this is why I love climate data so much lol

Nice info...yeah go figure. Has JB been tweeting or chatting up a bit on the bell lateley? Usually around this time (on accu anyway) he would usually post a map and first thoughts on the winter.

[nwohweather]

Problem is the massive drought back then in the 1920s/30s.

Well isn't something very similar to that happening in the Plains already? Also the dust bowl definitely exaggerated the drought conditions

[nzucker]

What was so amazing about that year was the heat that summer and the wicked cold that winter in an otherwise decade known for fairly mild winters. Yeah dry and cold is awful for the vegetation. And as much as I love warm weather I would rather have it active in winter than just plain cold and dry....that sucks.

Did the 1950's feature as many la ninas as the early part of the 00's? And if there is a link to where you can see past enso states I would appreciate that.

We had La Niña in 50-51, 54-55, 55-56 (2nd strongest on record), and 56-57.

You can check out historical ENSO data here:

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

[River Card]

We had La Niña in 50-51, 54-55, 55-56 (2nd strongest on record), and 56-57.

You can check out historical ENSO data here:

http://ggweather.com/enso/oni.htm

Awesome thanks bro!

[BeastFromTheEast]

Well isn't something very similar to that happening in the Plains already? Also the dust bowl definitely exaggerated the drought conditions

Mostly just in the southern areas.. But with the tropical system about to hit Texas and likely/hopefully many others to come in the next few months the drought stricken ares will get a nice drenching and relief from the drought...

[wisconsinwx]

I'm unfortunately smelling a below average snowfall year IMBY. We are probably due. 3 of the last 5 years have been active, with one dud (09-10) and one average year with a hyper-active December (06-07). However, with a moderate La Nina continuing, there is definitely still hope for an active winter pattern to continue from recent years. This has been a heck of a 5 year run for MKE when I look back on it. I have a small hope inside of me that it's a new norm, but probably just a thought. Even though Minnesota had an active year last year, they're likely to have another one this year to make up for some of the crappy ones before that. Same deal with N Michigan, although they didn't have the hyper active year Minnesota did.

[Hoosier]

I'm unfortunately smelling a below average snowfall year IMBY. We are probably due. 3 of the last 5 years have been active, with one dud (09-10) and one average year with a hyper-active December (06-07). However, with a moderate La Nina continuing, there is definitely still hope for an active winter pattern to continue from recent years. This has been a heck of a 5 year run for MKE when I look back on it. I have a small hope inside of me that it's a new norm, but probably just a thought. Even though Minnesota had an active year last year, they're likely to have another one this year to make up for some of the crappy ones before that. Same deal with N Michigan, although they didn't have the hyper active year Minnesota did.

[Chicago Storm]

I'm unfortunately smelling a below average snowfall year IMBY. We are probably due. 3 of the last 5 years have been active, with one dud (09-10) and one average year with a hyper-active December (06-07). However, with a moderate La Nina continuing, there is definitely still hope for an active winter pattern to continue from recent years. This has been a heck of a 5 year run for MKE when I look back on it. I have a small hope inside of me that it's a new norm, but probably just a thought. Even though Minnesota had an active year last year, they're likely to have another one this year to make up for some of the crappy ones before that. Same deal with N Michigan, although they didn't have the hyper active year Minnesota did.

'09-'10 featured 36.8" (-1.4).

While it was a bit below normal, it featured two 8"+ storms for MKE, and a few more for other portions of the CWA.

Not sure how you can consider it a "dud".

[kab2791]

Seriously, post less, read more.

I'm unfortunately smelling a below average snowfall year IMBY. We are probably due. 3 of the last 5 years have been active, with one dud (09-10) and one average year with a hyper-active December (06-07). However, with a moderate La Nina continuing, there is definitely still hope for an active winter pattern to continue from recent years. This has been a heck of a 5 year run for MKE when I look back on it. I have a small hope inside of me that it's a new norm, but probably just a thought. Even though Minnesota had an active year last year, they're likely to have another one this year to make up for some of the crappy ones before that. Same deal with N Michigan, although they didn't have the hyper active year Minnesota did.

[wisconsinwx]

'09-'10 featured 36.8" (-1.4).

While it was a bit below normal, it featured two 8"+ storms for MKE, and a few more for other portions of the CWA.

Not sure how you can consider it a "dud".

I've seen our average as 48", so it was around a foot below normal. I was actually going to add it had a couple good storms. I guess I can't win with this crowd. I wanted to post something that wasn't a complaint, but it got picked apart anyways. I don't have the meteorological knowledge most of you do, so I'm only basing predictions off of past observations and conjectures. Can't a novice post their thoughts?

[baroclinic_instability]

I've seen our average as 48", so it was around a foot below normal. I was actually going to add it had a couple good storms. I guess I can't win with this crowd. I wanted to post something that wasn't a complaint, but it got picked apart anyways. I don't have the meteorological knowledge most of you do, so I'm only basing predictions off of past observations and conjectures. Can't a novice post their thoughts?

You complain too much, no doubt about that. That said, I appreciate your desire to learn more, just take Kab's advice. Watch how others post, consider your own postings, and learn. You will see what I mean.

And yes, novice posters are more than free to post their thoughts.

[Chicago Storm]

I've seen our average as 48", so it was around a foot below normal.

After looking at it more, we are both wrong...though you were closer.

Average is 52.4"

MKE has several different averages listed across their site, which doesn't help when you're trying to argue a point.

[Chicago WX]

MKE had 38.3" in 2009-10, 14.1" below the 71-00 average of 52.4". Eh, it was a dud.

58.1" in 2006-07 was not though, but February 07 was the snowiest month that season with 23.7" (Dec 06 only had 11.0").

[wisconsinwx]

After looking at it more, we are both wrong...though you were closer.

Average is 52.4"

MKE has several different averages listed across their site, which doesn't help when you're trying to argue a point.

Yeah, I have seen at least two different averages myself, which I don't understand, given I believe they were for the same time period. I enjoyed those two events (well, at least the second one in February that yielded all snow, so it is only a dud from the standpoint of averages.

[Quixotic1]

I'm thinking a Weak to Moderate La Nina is in the cards, something along the lines of a -0.8 to -1.2 range right now.

Any idea as to placement? Kinda thinking West right now or a broad basin one.

[Stebo]

Any idea as to placement? Kinda thinking West right now or a broad basin one.

Central and Western parts of the Pacific right now would be my current thoughts. The eastern part could be near neutral and might even flirt with slightly above normal.

[OHSnow]

Here are my analogs. Basically, just looked at some moderate to strong La Ninas. A lot of these years had very hot Julys similar to this past one. July 1916, 1949, and 1955 were all very similar to this one in the Great Lakes.

[Stebo]

Here are my analogs. Basically, just looked at some moderate to strong La Ninas. A lot of these years had very hot Julys similar to this past one. July 1916, 1949, and 1955 were all very similar to this one in the Great Lakes.

At this point I don't know if we make it to a strong Nina, a moderate Nina is still even up in the air.

[michsnowfreak]

Here are my analogs. Basically, just looked at some moderate to strong La Ninas. A lot of these years had very hot Julys similar to this past one. July 1916, 1949, and 1955 were all very similar to this one in the Great Lakes.

looking at those analog years, most were very active in these parts, and snowfall was decent with the exception of 1988-89 and 1999-00 (at least 1999-00 had solid snowcover from early Jan to late Feb, the heart of winter, so only 1988-89 would be a disaster). I also see some very stormy years which would mean not only would snowfall be above normal, we would see quite a few rainstorms as well (and winter rainstorms have been nearly nonexistant in these parts the last 3 winters). Lastly, a characteristic of these analogs is wild swings in temperatures from arctic blasts to torches.

That said, leaning toward mod-strong Nina seems very bullish at this point.

[Tropical]

With the new climate normals, MKE has lost 5.5 inches of snow. Down to 46.9 from 52.4.

Average temperatures are up as follows:

Dec: +0.3

Jan: +1.6

Feb: +0.5

Minimums have taken a huge trend upwards (Jan: +2.2).

Only one month has average maximum temperatures below freezing now (Jan).

So, using the 30 year trend, the last several snowy winters should be an anomaly and we should move back to more modest, less snowy winters in the next few years ... if the long-term trend is our friend.

[wisconsinwx]

With the new climate normals, MKE has lost 5.5 inches of snow. Down to 46.9 from 52.4.

Average temperatures are up as follows:

Dec: +0.3

Jan: +1.6

Feb: +0.5

Minimums have taken a huge trend upwards (Jan: +2.2).

Only one month has average maximum temperatures below freezing now (Jan).

So, using the 30 year trend, the last several snowy winters should be an anomaly and we should move back to more modest, less snowy winters in the next few years ... if the long-term trend is our friend.

I thought you used to love snow? It was apparent on the Eastern US Wx forums. I guess that 07-08 winter was too much for you, huh?

[Tropical]

I thought you used to love snow? It was apparent on the Eastern US Wx forums. I guess that 07-08 winter was too much for you, huh?

Summer > Winter. Not a fan of the slop and cold.

But we won't discuss that here; I was just discussing winter-related facts.

[wisconsinwx]

Summer > Winter. Not a fan of the slop and cold.

But we won't discuss that here; I was just discussing winter-related facts.

Then why are you posting in this thread? Anyways, I must refute your point that just because the average winter temp is going up, that means less snow. In fact, it might mean more major snowstorms in January, since now that month is usually cold and dry. Being on the fringes of more systems might result in more snowstorms that month.

[Harry]

Here are my analogs. Basically, just looked at some moderate to strong La Ninas. A lot of these years had very hot Julys similar to this past one. July 1916, 1949, and 1955 were all very similar to this one in the Great Lakes.

Thing is the chances for a mod and especially a strong Nina are pretty slim. Also take note of where the greatest departures from normal ( above average ) were located in years such as 1955. Thus a different kind of heat/pattern during those summers.

Thing about seasonal forecasting ( Atleast with winter- I am not into summer etc as much so not as sure ) like this is looking at everything especially when it comes to analogs. Talking about where the warmth or cool was, precip/drought etc. Then there is enso, AO/NAO/PDO and ofcourse solar. Also ( assuming we do go back fully into Nina even if it is weak ) wanna look at multi year nina events too.

And no you won't ever get a exact match but you do wanna atleast try and find more then one or two things to go with.

[BeastFromTheEast]

Then why are you posting in this thread? Anyways, I must refute your point that just because the average winter temp is going up, that means less snow. In fact, it might mean more major snowstorms in January, since now that month is usually cold and dry. Being on the fringes of more systems might result in more snowstorms that month.

I guess he missed the "for cold/snow lovers" next to the title.

[Tropical]

Then why are you posting in this thread? Anyways, I must refute your point that just because the average winter temp is going up, that means less snow. In fact, it might mean more major snowstorms in January, since now that month is usually cold and dry. Being on the fringes of more systems might result in more snowstorms that month.

This statement is not backed up by facts; just assumption. The facts state in MKE the avg temp went up and snowfall went down.