Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[Tropical]

If you guys want mutual respect with your opinions, it would be nice to leave mine alone. You are all going with cold/snowy, (yet again), and I respect that. I differ, stated my reasoning and I will leave it at that.

This isn't high school.

[andyhb]

If you guys want mutual respect with your opinions, it would be nice to leave mine alone. You are all going with cold/snowy, (yet again), and I respect that. I differ, stated my reasoning and I will leave it at that.

This isn't high school.

[Trent]

Lake Erie water temperatures are running 4 degrees below normal here. The recent warm spell and sunshine should temper the rapid cool down, but this is the time of year to really watch the lake temps for the LES season ahead. As usual, any early cold spells would fire up the snow belts. But with a general consensus of a colder than normal winter, the lake machines could shut off earlier than usual this winter.

[wisconsinwx]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

Whatever you say man. If it turns out to be a cold and snowy winter again, I'll be thanking you probably. If not, you will be thanking your lucky stars you didn't lose any more sanity.

[wisconsinwx]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

I also think you just disproved your own point. You say you were looking at pictures from '09. That means before the 09-10 winter, which was the mildest and least snowiest of the last four. If that winter also had a late leaf drop, there is either no direct correlation, or perhaps you're lying to us.

[wisconsinwx]

On second thought, after researching 2009-10 and finding out that it, too was an early leaf changing season, now it's WINTER CANCEL! My new prediction is 30". It helps to be pessimistic anyways.

[SpartyOn]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

[snowstormcanuck]

If you guys want mutual respect with your opinions, it would be nice to leave mine alone. You are all going with cold/snowy, (yet again), and I respect that. I differ, stated my reasoning and I will leave it at that.

This isn't high school.

No one respects your opinions, and I couldn't care less whether you respect mine.

[BeastFromTheEast]

No one respects your opinions, and I couldn't care less whether you respect mine.

Except maybe RespiratoryGuy..

[BowMeHunter]

If you guys want mutual respect with your opinions, it would be nice to leave mine alone. You are all going with cold/snowy, (yet again), and I respect that. I differ, stated my reasoning and I will leave it at that.

This isn't high school.

Says the guy banned how many times and throws out leaves and woolly bears for his reasoning for a winter that suits his pansy ass.

lmaooooooooooooooo

[snowlord81]

There, I rebought my old email........................

I think the interesting thing about this winter may be if the EPO/western block can materialize enough like 2008-9. Maybe a poor mans 1917-18. The ridge in the west was nuts that winter.

Ive seen that analog being tossed about alot. I've been trying to find out/learn as much a possible about that that winter. Sounds like an old fashioned bad ass winter. Something I want to experience in my lifetime.

[Hoosier]

If you guys want mutual respect with your opinions, it would be nice to leave mine alone. You are all going with cold/snowy, (yet again), and I respect that. I differ, stated my reasoning and I will leave it at that.

This isn't high school.

People might respect you more if you could come up with some other reasoning for a warm winter besides folk tales.

[Justin]

I think Ruggie's outlook pretty much back's up my idea's spot on. If you add up the zones from DT's outlook and blend them together for the entire Winter his agree's pretty much with my thinking as well. I have some question as to how far N and W the above average snowfall zone for the Winter will extend but it should be a decent swath.

I really feel confident about this being a very, very cold Winter for many of us. Its going to be very bitter in spots I truly believe.

I think when we see the transition periods we'll get a couple of massive snows too. Could be a good year for St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cincinatti, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and the surrounding areas. Still like interior New England and Southeast Canada too for a good snowy Winter as well.... not as confident when it comes to the snow for the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Plains/Northern Great Lakes as the dominant storm track may deviate to far away from this area.

The -PDO phase really is going to be getting my attention and the strength of the La Nina as well... that will drive a lot of what happens.

Hopefully can really start getting the ground moistened up some in Texas and Oklahoma too...get the ground primed.

[Justin]

As a side note can't use the leaves around here as a signal... in some spots the colors are amazing, in others the trees haven't changed hardly at all. Its amazing. One block is full of color, the next block hardly any at all.

Some trees are nearly bare almost, while others have hardly lost any leaves. Its truly amazing to see the contrast in some of the trees. Has anyone else noticed that in their neighborhoods too? I don't find this to have any bearing on a Winter forecast.

[Stebo]

As a side note can't use the leaves around here as a signal... in some spots the colors are amazing, in others the trees haven't changed hardly at all. Its amazing. One block is full of color, the next block hardly any at all.

Some trees are nearly bare almost, while others have hardly lost any leaves. Its truly amazing to see the contrast in some of the trees. Has anyone else noticed that in their neighborhoods too? I don't find this to have any bearing on a Winter forecast.

Yeah I noticed that its a nice mix here too, some trees are full color others are still green.

[Stebo]

I think Ruggie's outlook pretty much back's up my idea's spot on. If you add up the zones from DT's outlook and blend them together for the entire Winter his agree's pretty much with my thinking as well. I have some question as to how far N and W the above average snowfall zone for the Winter will extend but it should be a decent swath.

I really feel confident about this being a very, very cold Winter for many of us. Its going to be very bitter in spots I truly believe.

I think when we see the transition periods we'll get a couple of massive snows too. Could be a good year for St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cincinatti, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and the surrounding areas. Still like interior New England and Southeast Canada too for a good snowy Winter as well.... not as confident when it comes to the snow for the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Plains/Northern Great Lakes as the dominant storm track may deviate to far away from this area.

The -PDO phase really is going to be getting my attention and the strength of the La Nina as well... that will drive a lot of what happens.

Hopefully can really start getting the ground moistened up some in Texas and Oklahoma too...get the ground primed.

I agree with this, I think it could very well be a Central and Eastern Lakes year. Cities like Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Toronto could really cash in this year. I also agree that the bigger bust potential area could be those areas NW of Milwaukee and Chicago. Although those areas could be subject to high ratio snows which could compensate some what. I foresee a lot of ground blizzards this year across the Northern Plains due to the high ratio fluffy snows.

Another question mark though going into this winter would be the NAO, I'd like for it to not go too negative else might be back into a blocking pattern and boredom lol.

[jdrenken]

few images of DT's winter forecast

He caters to both the MW and NE folks by leaving the options wide open in his last statement regarding the blocking. Just like JB's 'Battle Zone' forecast last year was so large, DT mentioning both possibilities of the blocking gives him the opportunity to claim victory either way.

Very smart marketing on his part.

[snowlord81]

I think Ruggie's outlook pretty much back's up my idea's spot on. If you add up the zones from DT's outlook and blend them together for the entire Winter his agree's pretty much with my thinking as well. I have some question as to how far N and W the above average snowfall zone for the Winter will extend but it should be a decent swath.

I really feel confident about this being a very, very cold Winter for many of us. Its going to be very bitter in spots I truly believe.

I think when we see the transition periods we'll get a couple of massive snows too. Could be a good year for St. Louis, Chicago, Detroit, Indianapolis, Cincinatti, Milwaukee, Kansas City, and the surrounding areas. Still like interior New England and Southeast Canada too for a good snowy Winter as well.... not as confident when it comes to the snow for the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Plains/Northern Great Lakes as the dominant storm track may deviate to far away from this area.

The -PDO phase really is going to be getting my attention and the strength of the La Nina as well... that will drive a lot of what happens.

Hopefully can really start getting the ground moistened up some in Texas and Oklahoma too...get the ground primed.

Thanks for your forecast Justin. Looking forward to your analysis in the winter threads this year! Any clues at to what analogs you came up with?

[wisconsinwx]

I agree with this, I think it could very well be a Central and Eastern Lakes year. Cities like Detroit, Cleveland, Buffalo and Toronto could really cash in this year. I also agree that the bigger bust potential area could be those areas NW of Milwaukee and Chicago. Although those areas could be subject to high ratio snows which could compensate some what. I foresee a lot of ground blizzards this year across the Northern Plains due to the high ratio fluffy snows.

Another question mark though going into this winter would be the NAO, I'd like for it to not go too negative else might be back into a blocking pattern and boredom lol.

That is my biggest concern as well. If I could be assured the blocking would not be strong, I'd be pretty confident this will not be a below average snow year, b/c even if it is bitterly cold the potential for high ratio clippers is there.

[mnchaser]

As a side note can't use the leaves around here as a signal... in some spots the colors are amazing, in others the trees haven't changed hardly at all. Its amazing. One block is full of color, the next block hardly any at all.

Some trees are nearly bare almost, while others have hardly lost any leaves. Its truly amazing to see the contrast in some of the trees. Has anyone else noticed that in their neighborhoods too? I don't find this to have any bearing on a Winter forecast.

We are past peak here, but I notice this in my area every year also. Some trees still have lush green leaves like they did in the summer. I have a tree in my yard that will stay green all the into late November every for as long as I have lived here.

[JoMo]

Can't use the trees here since they are stressed due to the drought, heh.

[andyhb]

Can't use the trees here since they are stressed due to the drought, heh.

I would imagine there's a lot of trees missing as well.

[Justin]

Thanks for your forecast Justin. Looking forward to your analysis in the winter threads this year! Any clues at to what analogs you came up with?

Some analogs that pop up to me personally when looking at weak-moderate La Nina, -PDO, going with a weak/moderate -NAO I kinda keep coming up with 1963-1964 Winter with a few tweaks, then a few other years that show up are 1917-1918, 1967-1968, 2008-2009, 1975-1976, 1999-2000. There are actually a lot of Winters from the 60s and 70s that sort of show signs of matching up well- some years just seem to fit a bit better. Now some of these Winter may not have been monsters in terms of snow or cold- but I am looking, as we all are, at older data trying to make a best guess relating to PDO/NAO/Nino-Nina etc. So don't flame me to hard if it wasn't a banner Winter.

[tacoman25]

Some analogs that pop up to me personally when looking at weak-moderate La Nina, -PDO, going with a weak/moderate -NAO I kinda keep coming up with 1963-1964 Winter with a few tweaks, then a few other years that show up are 1917-1918, 1967-1968, 2008-2009, 1975-1976, 1999-2000. There are actually a lot of Winters from the 60s and 70s that sort of show signs of matching up well- some years just seem to fit a bit better. Now some of these Winter may not have been monsters in terms of snow or cold- but I am looking, as we all are, at older data trying to make a best guess relating to PDO/NAO/Nino-Nina etc. So don't flame me to hard if it wasn't a banner Winter.

I'm guessing you mean 1962-63, not 1963-64 (weak El Nino)?

I wouldn't use 1975-76 or 1999-00 for a couple reasons. Both were considerably stronger Ninas than 2011-12 will probably be, and 1975-76 was at the tail end of the -PDO phase right as things were flipping. 1999-00 came during a weak blocking regime, while we have seen much stronger blocking in recent years, both on the Pacific and Atlantic sides.

I agree that 1917-18, 1967-68, and 2008-09 are all viable analogs.

[Justin]

I'm guessing you mean 1962-63, not 1963-64 (weak El Nino)?

I wouldn't use 1975-76 or 1999-00 for a couple reasons. Both were considerably stronger Ninas than 2011-12 will probably be, and 1975-76 was at the tail end of the -PDO phase right as things were flipping. 1999-00 came during a weak blocking regime, while we have seen much stronger blocking in recent years, both on the Pacific and Atlantic sides.

I agree that 1917-18, 1967-68, and 2008-09 are all viable analogs.

Whoops I think I may have gotten my years crossed up, sorry. I've been fighting a migraine and trying to do some work and throw thoughts together...not the best thing to do, I know. Yes some of those years work a lot better than others but in general they all have some degree of support in one area or another with what may unfold this upcoming season.

[River Card]

Except maybe RespiratoryGuy..

Actually yout wrong bro. I see no reason whatsoever to think this is nothing but a cold harsh winter. The last 4 or 5 winters have been pretty active so no reason to go against the grain. These pattern are hard to break. But with that said let's see where the jet sets up, still a little early to cement that in stone. I hope it is a good winter for everyone, summer was good and hot had my fill so no reason to cast negativity on the cold and snow lovers. It's a nice season it certainly has it's unique beauty to it. And it is fun to watch things unfold and what it takes to create a winter storm. So many things have to fall into place and that's pretty cool for novice eyes like mine. Enjoy a great winter!

[BeastFromTheEast]

Actually yout wrong bro. I see no reason whatsoever to think this is nothing but a cold harsh winter. The last 4 or 5 winters have been pretty active so no reason to go against the grain. These pattern are hard to break. But with that said let's see where the jet sets up, still a little early to cement that in stone. I hope it is a good winter for everyone, summer was good and hot had my fill so no reason to cast negativity on the cold and snow lovers. It's a nice season it certainly has it's unique beauty to it. And it is fun to watch things unfold and what it takes to create a winter storm. So many things have to fall into place and that's pretty cool for novice eyes like mine. Enjoy a great winter!

Thanks!

[wisconsinwx]

I'm guessing you mean 1962-63, not 1963-64 (weak El Nino)?

I wouldn't use 1975-76 or 1999-00 for a couple reasons. Both were considerably stronger Ninas than 2011-12 will probably be, and 1975-76 was at the tail end of the -PDO phase right as things were flipping. 1999-00 came during a weak blocking regime, while we have seen much stronger blocking in recent years, both on the Pacific and Atlantic sides.

I agree that 1917-18, 1967-68, and 2008-09 are all viable analogs.

Hmm, a repeat of 1967-68 would be reason for Bow and I to go to the bottle. Less snow than we got in the GHD storm alone for the year.

[River Card]

Just a little clip from my friend in STL who posts on FB his disco....seems like some nice weather ahead and much like the last few years bang winter. Should be a fun start, be interesting if we see big time blocking though....honestly I hate cold and dry....hopefully it will snow some during that time. Kinda get a feeling this may be a hyper active clipper kinda winter, who knows?

GO CARDS!!! TIME FOR A LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO WINTER...BUT SOME COOLER BACK TO FALL TEMPS...MID TO LATE WEEK...A LARGE TROUGH WILL POUR OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...BUT NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR IT...THE CORE ENERGY...EITHER GOING INTO CANADA OR IN THE EASTERN GULF AND EAST COAST. BUT IT WILL IMPULSE A FRONT OVER THE REGION...CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...I STILL THINK THAT THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR THE BALLGAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONCE THIS BLOWS BY...THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND A LITTLE COOLER...AND FELLING MORE LIKE FALL THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO BIG COLD...JUST COOLER.

LONG RANGE...STILL THINKING COLDER AIR ROLLS IN FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND TO KICK OFF NOVEMBER...THEN A LITTLE WARMER UP...THEN WINTER COLD STARTS TO RELEASE...MID TO LATE NOVEMBER AND ALL OF DECEMBER.

[jdrenken]

Just a little clip from my friend in STL who posts on FB his disco....seems like some nice weather ahead and much like the last few years bang winter. Should be a fun start, be interesting if we see big time blocking though....honestly I hate cold and dry....hopefully it will snow some during that time. Kinda get a feeling this may be a hyper active clipper kinda winter, who knows?

GO CARDS!!! TIME FOR A LITTLE PATTERN CHANGE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...NO WINTER...BUT SOME COOLER BACK TO FALL TEMPS...MID TO LATE WEEK...A LARGE TROUGH WILL POUR OVER THE MIDDLE OF THE NATION...BUT NOT A LOT OF SUPPORT FOR IT...THE CORE ENERGY...EITHER GOING INTO CANADA OR IN THE EASTERN GULF AND EAST COAST. BUT IT WILL IMPULSE A FRONT OVER THE REGION...CHANCE OF SOME SHOWERS TUESDAY TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...I STILL THINK THAT THE BEST SHOT OF RAIN AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SOMETHING TO KEEP A CLOSE EYE ON FOR THE BALLGAME WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ONCE THIS BLOWS BY...THURSDAY WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY...WINDY AND A LITTLE COOLER...AND FELLING MORE LIKE FALL THURSDAY, FRIDAY, SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. NO BIG COLD...JUST COOLER.

LONG RANGE...STILL THINKING COLDER AIR ROLLS IN FOR THE LAST WEEK OF OCTOBER AND TO KICK OFF NOVEMBER...THEN A LITTLE WARMER UP...THEN WINTER COLD STARTS TO RELEASE...MID TO LATE NOVEMBER AND ALL OF DECEMBER.

Does he post it anywhere else besides FB?