Late Fall/Winter 2011-2012 speculation thread

[JoMo]

If Pasteloks outlook mimmicks anything like his summer forecast (a bust plain and simple for upper midwest) then we should be anything but what has been predicted. Brett Anderson will have his forecast posted tonite, if it mimmicks Pasteloks then we should be in for a crazy ride this winter. Be something for a 5th winter in a row exceeding normals again. Back to the 1970's we go. Hope it works out for all the winter enthusiasts.

80% chance Brett Anderson's forecast shows a super torch.

[A-L-E-K]

I know that my sarcasm didn't come out since I don't post here that much and apologize. Thought the rolling eyes would've been enough. It's also one of the reasons why I posted Skilling saying the same thing you just did.

No I got, my rage wasn't targeted at you but at the incredible amount of attention that "forecast" got

[jdrenken]

Brett Anderson will have his forecast posted tonite,

If his reflects the Euro Weeklies/Monthlies, it will barely show enough of the CONUS to matter.

[michsnowfreak]

http://www.freep.com/article/20111005/COL32/111005038/Ron-Dzwonkowski-Get-out-enjoy-weather-tough-winter-ahead

[Stevo6899]

http://www.freep.com/article/20111005/COL32/111005038/Ron-Dzwonkowski-Get-out-enjoy-weather-tough-winter-ahead

Hate to see the freep mentioning crapuweather.

[Snowstorms]

I posted this on Accuwx too, might as well post it here.

How about I update the latest on the La Nina and the MJO.

Monday's SST Chart;

Today's SST Chart

Based on the maps above we've seen warming across Nino region 3 and cooling across the Western Nina regions while Nino region 1+2 looks the same. Based on today's anomaly chart we currently have a West Based Nina. At the same time the cold anomalies across the GOA have def. cooled and expanded while the PDO remains negative.

We see a weak HP anomaly situated across Nino region 3 with scattered LP anomalies across the other Nina regions. Trade winds have weakened and currently the Kelvin Wave is starting to migrate Eastwards towards the ENSO regions. At this point the models show the Kelvin Wave progressing towards the Eastern Nina regions.

MJO is currently in Phase 6 and should progress through Phase 7 through October 9-13th or so before moving towards Phase 8. Once it enters Phase 8 we should see a significant weakening of the MJO related Kelvin Wave and so after lets see where the MJO moves towards but based on my thoughts I'm thinking the MJO should move towards the "COD" before moving towards Phases 1/2/3 which are favorable for La Nina development.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...O/foregfs.shtml

At the same time Subsurface waters have cooled significantly.

Either way you can see the progression of the MJO wave but I don't expect a destruction of the La Nina. Should start strengthening once again in about 1-3 weeks.

GWO has entered the "COD" and the GLAAM remains positive, slightly above 1 STD.

Based on what I've observed thus far only based on the ENSO here's a composite map of my preferred analogues based on the ENSO.

Now this is NOT my Winter Forecast but just a list of my preferred analogues and I wanted to include 1917-1918 and 1907-08 but the site only allows you to go back to 1948 but another site I have goes back much further but only up until Dec. 08 so yeah lol.

Brunt of the Winter IMO should be across the Great Lakes region and the NE. I believe NYC should get a decent storm or two but nothing like last year and the SE should get atleast one decent Winter storm based on their standards. If October/Early November remains warm and cools down significantly there after we can expect historic LES outbreaks. General Wind flow in Nina's is NW/N as opposed to W in Nino's.

If some were not pleased with last Winter I'm sure they'll like this Winter much better than last year. I expect it to be colder than last Winter but the coldest anomalies compared to normal should stay further West.

Any questions or comments?

[NYsnowlover]

Do you expect the QBO tO contune on it's negative trend?

I posted this on Accuwx too, might as well post it here.

How about I update the latest on the La Nina and the MJO.

Monday's SST Chart;

Today's SST Chart

Based on the maps above we've seen warming across Nino region 3 and cooling across the Western Nina regions while Nino region 1+2 looks the same. Based on today's anomaly chart we currently have a West Based Nina. At the same time the cold anomalies across the GOA have def. cooled and expanded while the PDO remains negative.

We see a weak HP anomaly situated across Nino region 3 with scattered LP anomalies across the other Nina regions. Trade winds have weakened and currently the Kelvin Wave is starting to migrate Eastwards towards the ENSO regions. At this point the models show the Kelvin Wave progressing towards the Eastern Nina regions.

MJO is currently in Phase 6 and should progress through Phase 7 through October 9-13th or so before moving towards Phase 8. Once it enters Phase 8 we should see a significant weakening of the MJO related Kelvin Wave and so after lets see where the MJO moves towards but based on my thoughts I'm thinking the MJO should move towards the "COD" before moving towards Phases 1/2/3 which are favorable for La Nina development.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...O/foregfs.shtml

At the same time Subsurface waters have cooled significantly.

Either way you can see the progression of the MJO wave but I don't expect a destruction of the La Nina. Should start strengthening once again in about 1-3 weeks.

GWO has entered the "COD" and the GLAAM remains positive, slightly above 1 STD.

Based on what I've observed thus far only based on the ENSO here's a composite map of my preferred analogues based on the ENSO.

Now this is NOT my Winter Forecast but just a list of my preferred analogues and I wanted to include 1917-1918 and 1907-08 but the site only allows you to go back to 1948 but another site I have goes back much further but only up until Dec. 08 so yeah lol.

Brunt of the Winter IMO should be across the Great Lakes region and the NE. I believe NYC should get a decent storm or two but nothing like last year and the SE should get atleast one decent Winter storm based on their standards. If October/Early November remains warm and cools down significantly there after we can expect historic LES outbreaks. General Wind flow in Nina's is NW/N as opposed to W in Nino's.

If some were not pleased with last Winter I'm sure they'll like this Winter much better than last year. I expect it to be colder than last Winter but the coldest anomalies compared to normal should stay further West.

Any questions or comments?

[AppsRunner]

Do you expect the QBO tO contune on it's negative trend?

Why wouldn't it?

[NYsnowlover]

Why wouldn't it?

I just have a felling that this us too gpod to be true, it is my inner NY Jets fan speaking!!!

[wisconsinwx]

I need to stay off of Accuweather, because everything I read is pulling my hopes up that much more. It sounds like a central-based LaNina is quite likely at the moment, and that is probably best for the GL of the possibilities. With analogs like 07-08 and 08-09 you can't help but get excited if you're a snow fan around here.

[snowlover2]

Neowether.com just updated their winter forecast about an hour ago and is much colder than the preliminary. The prelim had the slightly below average area cut through IL/IN/OH just to give you an idea on how much it changed.

Neoweather latest update

[JoMo]

Neowether.com just updated their winter forecast about an hour ago and is much colder than the preliminary. The prelim had the slightly below average area cut through IL/IN/OH just to give you an idea on how much it changed.

Neoweather latest update

Individual monthly maps don't line up with overall.

[jdrenken]

As predicted earlier...

Brett Anderson

[Thundersnow12]

I need to stay off of Accuweather, because everything I read is pulling my hopes up that much more. It sounds like a central-based LaNina is quite likely at the moment, and that is probably best for the GL of the possibilities. With analogs like 07-08 and 08-09 you can't help but get excited if you're a snow fan around here.

smartest thing you've ever said.

[AppsRunner]

But then again it is accuweather!!!

This could be their year though!!

Didn't you just get banned from Accuwx?

[River Card]

Has Pastelok ever predicted a good seasonal forecast

since he took over back in february?

Bump!

[michsnowfreak]

Hate to see the freep mentioning crapuweather.

They also made a mistake in talking about how cold and snowy last winter was, saying 67.5" fell at DTW. It was 69.1". They left out the April 18th snowfall apparently.

[JoMo]

Ruggie's outlook:

http://ruggieweather.blogspot.com/2011/10/my-2011-2012-winter-forecast.html

[KokomoWX]

Ruggie's outlook:

http://ruggieweather...r-forecast.html

I sure all of these and forecasts for MBY come true.

[Trent]

Here in Cleveland the new DJF normal temperature is 1.9 degrees warmer than the DJF normal was last year. Are forecasters taking this into account for the northern parts of the US?Calling for a 2 degree below normal winter is the exact same thing this year as forecasting a normal temperature winter last year! Another way to look at it is this, if we had the EXACT same winter this year as we did last year, this year would be 2 degrees more below average.

[KokomoWX]

DT's winter forecast - http://1664596.sites.myregisteredsite.com/seasonalforcst/WINTER1112/WINTER1112version1.htm

[JoMo]

DT's winter forecast - http://1664596.sites...112version1.htm

He put it in powerpoint format? Uh ok.

I can't view it so what does it generally show

[andyhb]

He put it in powerpoint format? Uh ok.

I can't view it so what does it generally show

Essentially reinforcing many of the prelim. outlooks so far, with some more details on analogs, based on the -QBO, Weak-Mod Nina and -PDO, etc.

Also gives details on hints that hurricane season and Fall snowfall can offer heading into D/J/F.

[prinsburg_wx]

He put it in powerpoint format? Uh ok.

I can't view it so what does it generally show

few images of DT's winter forecast

[michsnowfreak]

Wow the beat goes on...more predictions of a great winter! LOVE IT!

[JoMo]

Thanks andyhb and prinsburg_wx

It does look like a lot of the other outlooks.

[Tropical]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

[kab2791]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

[Thunder Road]

I'm gonna say this winter will be mild and relatively snowless.

There are two reasons I'm going this route:

1) Leaves are changing color rapidly and already dropping. 07-08, 08-09, and 10-11 autumns had late leaf drop ... collection was extended up to Thanksgiving because the trees would not release the leaves. I was looking over pictures from 2009 and the trees in my backyard were 100% green on October 10th. Today they are completely yellow and half bare.

"When leaves fall early it will be a mild fall and winter."

2) Wooly bears have a large orange stripe this fall. Almost no black on the ones I've seen thus far.

"If there is a narrow orange band in the middle of the Woolly Bear caterpillar, it warns of heavy snow."

If I'm wrong, I'm wrong, but this is my guess for the winter. Time for someone to go against analogs and ENSO and throw something else on to the plate.

[michsnowfreak]

Im confused actually. Since the time of leaf drop is a sure sign of how harsh the winter will be (and no silly factors like drought, wetness, sunshine etc play into leaf color/timing), then why on earth did he predict a mild winter in 2010-11 if they extended leaf pickup to late November? Wouldnt that have been a sure sign he predict a cold, snowy winter in 2010-11 instead of mild?

Sarcasm aside, I swear I remembered the late leaf drop as his excuse why winter would be mild last year lol. Could be wrong, but thats what I remember.