Stevo6899 Posted October 5, 2011 Share Posted October 5, 2011 From last year.... Lol furthest from the truth. Not a fan of outlooks. To me its all hype until we see an actual pattern setting up and a look at the tele's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I didn't see where these were. Where can I find them? They were in Jesse's blog, WxMatrix or whatever his name is. *Our recent Analog years are 2008-2009 (double weighted), 2007-08,1996-97, 1999-00, 2000-01. Look to your snowfall totals those years, esp. 2008-2009, to get an idea of what we expect this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quixotic1 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The full map from Accuwx... Looks like someone is hedging their bets against a negative NAO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 They were in Jesse's blog, WxMatrix or whatever his name is. *Our recent Analog years are 2008-2009 (double weighted), 2007-08,1996-97, 1999-00, 2000-01. Look to your snowfall totals those years, esp. 2008-2009, to get an idea of what we expect this year. Paul also had 1962-63 and 1956-57 in there, although he didn't like '57 too much for February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Lol furthest from the truth. Not a fan of outlooks. To me its all hype until we see an actual pattern setting up and a look at the tele's. It wasn't that bad. I'd guess the west wasn't a great call, but the "battle zone" area was spot on for the most "fun" last winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It wasn't that bad. I'd guess the west wasn't a great call, but the "battle zone" area was spot on for the most "fun" last winter. Yea for the ghd storm and feb it was somewhat accurate but for most of Dec and Jan the battle zone was alot further south until the NAO relaxed. Its hard to trust the models past 4 days and its just feels like to me that outlooks 2 months away fall into that category. Too many wild cards. But they get paid to do outlooks so hopefully they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 So going off the analogs that JoMo posted, if Chicago is to have its worst winter ever...or something like that, here's the snowfall totals of the above winters at ORD... 1996-97: 40.6" 1999-00: 30.3" 2000-01: 39.2" 2007-08: 60.3" 2008-09: 52.7" Kinda meh to the first three, other than the rocking Dec 2000. The other two speak for themselves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Yea for the ghd storm and feb it was somewhat accurate but for most of Dec and Jan the battle zone was alot further south until the NAO relaxed. Its hard to trust the models past 4 days and its just feels like to me that outlooks 2 months away fall into that category. Too many wild cards. But they get paid to do outlooks so hopefully they are right. Well December was good on a line for MSP to QC to LAF to CVG. Weird month somewhat, but yes the blocking forced it that way. Regardless, point taken. I look at outlooks like this as fun more than anything else. Seasonal forecasting is tough business. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The Octotorch has ignited this thread... Those Accu maps are cool but like an above poster stated they are hedging their bets on a wicked NAO.. who knows what will happen. For all we know we could all get screwed and the Mid Atlantic wins big..Personally I don't trust an outlook at all, but its nice to see a winter map in the middle of an unwanted Indian Summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The Octotorch has ignited this thread... Those Accu maps are cool but like an above poster stated they are hedging their bets on a wicked NAO.. who knows what will happen. For all we know we could all get screwed and the Mid Atlantic wins big..Personally I don't trust an outlook at all, but its nice to see a winter map in the middle of an unwanted Indian Summer. It's doesn't snow much in October. Not sure an Indian summer is unwanted. Last year it was pretty warm then as Dec 1 came its like someone flipped the switch to freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It's doesn't snow much in October. Not sure an Indian summer is unwanted. Last year it was pretty warm then as Dec 1 came its like someone flipped the switch to freezing. Im almost hoping for a slightly warmer average temp this Winter as last year was a nightmare for a tight gas budget. Yea..Dec 1st was the turning point. Im betting we get our first flakes in November this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Im almost hoping for a slightly warmer average temp this Winter as last year was a nightmare for a tight gas budget. Yea..Dec 1st was the turning point. Im betting we get our first flakes in November this year. Good luck with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
okie333 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Someone just sent me a message telling me. They also said the story mentioned we're going to have two blizzards like the GHD one last Winter. I'm not sure if that was really said, but if it was... Actually I'm seeing something that could imply that... it's in the LRC though so it's very uncertain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SpartyOn Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Good luck with that. Theres always room for hope..$$$$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 You are just defending him because you work for ACCUWRONG Obviously you need to stop reading between the lines because you would've seen that I wasn't defending him. Nice try Frank. Go cry on DP's Facebook page. Maybe all the people on Americanwx should know your true feelings about this forum ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Someone just sent me a message telling me. They also said the story mentioned we're going to have two blizzards like the GHD one last Winter. I'm not sure if that was really said, but if it was... I don't remember that being said in the accuwx forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I don't remember that being said in the accuwx forecast. It wasn't it was said on a local station in Chicago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BeastFromTheEast Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 With all of this hype I have a bad feeling about this winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlord81 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Maybe for once we can live up to all the hype. Im taking the optomistic approach. Im no long range forecaster but everything I've seen so far (except Chad's outlook ) looks excellent for the Ohio Valley. I guess we will wait and see but I cant help but think with alot of the cards falling in place that we will atleast have an above average snow year. Details are months away but I look forward to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 from the Accuweather outlook.. "Chicago, which endured a monster blizzard last winter, could be one of the hardest-hit cities in terms of both snow and cold in the winter ahead." "AccuWeather.com Long-Range Meteorologist Josh Nagelberg even went so far as to say, "People in Chicago are going to want to move after this winter." "In terms of both snow and cold, this winter is expected to be the worst in Chicago. i'm late but, got damn i hate stuff like this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Central Illinois Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 The full map from Accuwx... Looks like we would all benefit from that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 It wasn't it was said on a local station in Chicago. Thanks! Even Skilling said that above average snowfall was a possibility, but in the same breath came out with this... Assigning numbers to pos seasonal snow or to # snowstorms is a dicey proposition. Skill's limited at that level of specificity so far ahead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 Thanks! Even Skilling said that above average snowfall was a possibility, but in the same breath came out with this... Those kind of statements don't really say anything, all it does is hedge his bets. I'd be surprised if he didn't think above average was a possibility, that would have been much more newsworthy of a statement. I don't expect him to come out with an elaborate prediction, as that tends to result in critcism, unless it is very close to correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 I stand corrected... "The difference, though, is that last year, Chicago was hit with heavy snow later in the season. This year, it will be earlier," Pastelok explained. He added, "They had one big storm last year that brought their snowfall to well above average. This year, there could be several big ones." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 make it stop, the complex interactions that bring together big snows can't be sniffed out this far, the best someone could say is given x, y and z I feel it's likely the pattern will be snowier/colder. period end of story. the hype is distracting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 make it stop, the complex interactions that bring together big snows can't be sniffed out this far, the best someone could say is given x, y and z I feel it's likely the pattern will be snowier/colder. period end of story. the hype is distracting. Agree 100%, sure it might end up above normal but to explicitly say that there will be several big ones comparable to last year is just silliness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 make it stop, the complex interactions that bring together big snows can't be sniffed out this far, the best someone could say is given x, y and z I feel it's likely the pattern will be snowier/colder. period end of story. the hype is distracting. Need install a like button on here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jdrenken Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 make it stop, the complex interactions that bring together big snows can't be sniffed out this far, the best someone could say is given x, y and z I feel it's likely the pattern will be snowier/colder. period end of story. the hype is distracting. I know that my sarcasm didn't come out since I don't post here that much and apologize. Thought the rolling eyes would've been enough. It's also one of the reasons why I posted Skilling saying the same thing you just did. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
River Card Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 If Pasteloks outlook mimmicks anything like his summer forecast (a bust plain and simple for upper midwest) then we should be anything but what has been predicted. Brett Anderson will have his forecast posted tonite, if it mimmicks Pasteloks then we should be in for a crazy ride this winter. Be something for a 5th winter in a row exceeding normals again. Back to the 1970's we go. Hope it works out for all the winter enthusiasts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYsnowlover Posted October 6, 2011 Share Posted October 6, 2011 If Pasteloks outlook mimmicks anything like his summer forecast (a bust plain and simple for upper midwest) then we should be anything but what has been predicted. Brett Anderson will have his forecast posted tonite, if it mimmicks Pasteloks then we should be in for a crazy ride this winter. Be something for a 5th winter in a row exceeding normals again. Back to the 1970's we go. Hope it works out for all the winter enthusiasts. Has Pastelok ever predicted a good seasonal forecast since he took over back in february? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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