BeastFromTheEast Posted September 30, 2011 Share Posted September 30, 2011 If you only knew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Block was so strong we were dry and cold for all of december. Hopefully it will be weaker and pushed further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Joe Bastardi seems to think winter will start on the cold side for the upper midwest to northeast, but that the mid to latter part of the season may be warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I have made a page on my blog discussing about snowfall averages and such in different ENSO states going back to 1900. Now this is only for Toronto but this same method can be applied to areas surrounding the Great Lakes region as well. It's in "cm" but I have a converter on my blog. http://weatherintoro...l-averages.html I found that La Nina Winters followed by Neutral Winters then El Nino Winters are best preferred. excelent! Could you compile a list for Ottawa at some point? I think Ottawa's most incredible winter was 1933-34. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 I'm reading alot of discussion about blocking on the Accuweather forums, and that doesn't sound really optimistic for the Great Lakes. Wasn't that what resulted in the slow start to the winter (snow) season last year? Anyone else stop reading this post at the words Accuweather forums? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
andyhb Posted October 1, 2011 Share Posted October 1, 2011 Anyone else stop reading this post at the words Accuweather forums? Count 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Excellent resource! Thanks. No surprises here that the pecking order is Nina>Nada>Nino. Thanks man. It seems reasonable. Nino's are often the worst across our region though this doesnt speak for every Nino though, some arent bad. excelent! Could you compile a list for Ottawa at some point? I think Ottawa's most incredible winter was 1933-34. Thanks man. I finished a list for Ottawa like you requested. Here check it out. Quite interesting. http://weatherintoronto.blogspot.com/p/snowfall-averages.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowlover2 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Joe Bastardi was on Fox News a couple days ago and it was posted on Youtube. He talked first about the hurricane season and then previewed his winter forecast. JB Youtube Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Block was so strong we were dry and cold for all of december. Hopefully it will be weaker and pushed further east But it also meant we had a nice snowcover the whole month, perfect for Christmas. After the New Year, the games began and it snowed like hell. Id take a 2010-11 repeat any day, but that said, I would like an active December, and most forecasts Ive seen have that for this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 But it also meant we had a nice snowcover the whole month, perfect for Christmas. After the New Year, the games began and it snowed like hell. Id take a 2010-11 repeat any day, but that said, I would like an active December, and most forecasts Ive seen have that for this year! Most in the Great Lakes would take a repeat of last year. It may not have been an epic year for snowfall totals, but it was far from boring at any point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Joe Bastardi was on Fox News a couple days ago and it was posted on Youtube. He talked first about the hurricane season and then previewed his winter forecast. JB Youtube "Chicago looks like its going to have a nasty winter overall" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hm8 Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 http://firsthandweather.com/blog/all-posts/20112012-winter-forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoMo Posted October 2, 2011 Share Posted October 2, 2011 Always in the battlezone in these parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Environment Canada just released their forecast for the Nov-Dec 2011-Jan 2012 period and it shows much of Canada to be colder than normal. The only exception is in southern Ontario, where near normal temperatures are forecast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Environment Canada just released their forecast for the Nov-Dec 2011-Jan 2012 period and it shows much of Canada to be colder than normal. The only exception is in southern Ontario, where near normal temperatures are forecast. I remember reading that they were going warm this winter, so this would be a massive flip-flop unless they expect the blowtorch of the century in Feb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast hopefully the block won't be that strong and that blue strip can come a bit further north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 seems to be a lot of lov'n for snow/cold enthusiasts in the OV and lakes. Concensus in longterm forecasting isn't always a good thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 seems to be a lot of lov'n for snow/cold enthusiasts in the OV and lakes. Concensus in longterm forecasting isn't always a good thing though. 2001-02 repeat? Of course that was back in the WWBB days, but I recall everyone going cold and snowy before that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 2001-02 repeat? Of course that was back in the WWBB days, but I recall everyone going cold and snowy before that winter. Anything can happen of course but that year was more challenging/prone to error imo given the neutral ENSO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 3, 2011 Share Posted October 3, 2011 Anything can happen of course but that year was more challenging/prone to error imo given the neutral ENSO. Of course. Buckeye seems nervous with the consensus call at the moment. Just thought I'd throw out an example to keep it going. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wintersrage Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Of course. Buckeye seems nervous with the consensus call at the moment. Just thought I'd throw out an example to keep it going. Many people seem to be going for a 08-9 repeat. Funny thing is, we could have a warmer winter than that one,but snowier. Yeah, I remember 2001-2. Bastardi's first real big online seasonal bust. Then he tried to wiggle out of the disaster, saying he had the "upper levels right" but it didn't translate down to the ground or some type of bs. Funny stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wisconsinwx Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Many people seem to be going for a 08-9 repeat. Funny thing is, we could have a warmer winter than that one,but snowier. Yeah, I remember 2001-2. Bastardi's first real big online seasonal bust. Then he tried to wiggle out of the disaster, saying he had the "upper levels right" but it didn't translate down to the ground or some type of bs. Funny stuff. Like 07-08? Actually, that was about as cold as 08-09, just snowier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
buckeye Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Many people seem to be going for a 08-9 repeat. Funny thing is, we could have a warmer winter than that one,but snowier. Yeah, I remember 2001-2. Bastardi's first real big online seasonal bust. Then he tried to wiggle out of the disaster, saying he had the "upper levels right" but it didn't translate down to the ground or some type of bs. Funny stuff. brutal bust for him. In december he was calling for the potential of the coldest january EVER on record for the east. I believe it ended up breaking records on the warm side Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 brutal bust for him. In december he was calling for the potential of the coldest january EVER on record for the east. I believe it ended up breaking records on the warm side I think LC was one of the only major forecasters who had anything resembling a successful outlook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 http://firsthandweat...winter-forecast Verbatim that would put us right on the border between snowy and dry lol. Even better it would put Hawkeye on the triple point between dry/average/ and snowy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 Verbatim that would put us right on the border between snowy and dry lol. Even better it would put Hawkeye on the triple point between dry/average/ and snowy. Ya....those 15" to 50" seasonal snowfall gradients over 2 counties...lol atleast put average snowfall between the too to make it look realistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted October 4, 2011 Author Share Posted October 4, 2011 seems to be a lot of lov'n for snow/cold enthusiasts in the OV and lakes. Concensus in longterm forecasting isn't always a good thing though. All depends on how they got there. Thus the reasoning used. Speaking of i am running a bit late with my own outlook. Been very busy the past month or so. I'll try to throw something together in the next week or so IF i get the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I've been waiting for cromartie's winter prediction. I assume it will go something like this... Analog years: 1877-78, 1931-32, 1997-98, 2001-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LizardMafia Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 I've been waiting for cromartie's winter prediction. I assume it will go something like this... Analog years: 1877-78, 1931-32, 1997-98, 2001-02 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AppsRunner Posted October 4, 2011 Share Posted October 4, 2011 The new Long Range guy at Accuwx has his forecast out, basically anyone who post here east of the Mississippi is well into the above average snow zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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